BL Predicts: Game 16 Browns vs Steelers

Not much analysis needed this week, as the Browns close out yet another losing season.

- Browns are on the road and have nothing to play for other than perhaps a better position in the draft.

- Steelers are fighting for yet another playoff birth.

- Browns are quite banged up with numerous key players either out or at risk of missing this weeks game.


BL Predicts:

Steelers      31
Browns      17


The BL are 10-5 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 15 vs Jets

Yet another losing season for the Cleveland Browns is winding up.  All we are left to reflect on is that the Browns keep losing year after year after year.

It torture to think about this but last year the Kansas City Chiefs won 1 game and they are now one of the best teams in the AFC.  The Philadelphia Eagles last year won 4 games and now they're in the playoff hunt.  Our Browns won 5 games last year and they'll be lucky to tie that total this year.

Our best chance to get back to the magical 5 win total is Sunday against the Jets.   Hard game to predict because the Jets aren't all that much better than Cleveland.  But the Browns are on the road, banged up, and coming off a series of extremely deflating defeats.

I could see Josh Gordon having a huge game and it's not that far fetched to imagine Geno Smith giving Cleveland a few intercepts.   But winning on the road is hard, especially without Jordan Cameron and possibly without Joe Haden.

I'm going with the home team this week.

BL Predicts:

Jets 23
Browns 16


The BL are 9-5 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 14 vs 'da Bears

For 58 minutes last week, the Brown Log was the only prognosticator on earth that had correctly foreseen a Browns victory over the New England Patriots.   Then fate, game fixing referees, and God knows what else, intervened, allowing New England to walk off the field of play with a victory they did not earn.  The Brown Log have consistently out predicted the experts this year and if we'd have nailed that one, it would have been sweet.   In any case, our 9-4 record predicting Browns games this year still beat all of the experts.

This week our Browns return home to take on the Chicago Bears, who find themselves in a fight for the playoffs.

Emotionally, the Bears have an edge, no question about it.   The Browns are coming off a series of extremely deflating losses topped off by the unimaginable defeat last week.

On the plus side for Cleveland:

- This is a home game and will be played in brutally cold weather which will tighten up players on both sides of the ball.

- The Bears have a QB controversy.  Jay Cutler will be under center for Chicago Sunday.  If he's 100% he's an able NFL QB but both fans and perhaps his own teammates lack confidence in Cutler.

- Josh Gordon is emerging as a superstar wideout of the kind not seen since the days of Jerry Rice.   Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden both know that Gordon is the kind of player who can make a QB look like a genius.   Gordon's presence is bound to open up opportunity for the rest of the Brown's O too as the Bears would be fools not to double Gordon all day long.

- Aging veteran running back Willis McGahee is out Sunday.   McGahee has been a real trooper this year.  He shows up every Sunday, works hard, runs hard and does not fumble but his knees just can't do what his courage and mind want to.  McGahee has been a net liability all year.   Perhaps Chris Obannaya or Fozzy Whittaker can step up now once given a chance.

Once again this week all of the pundits are going with 'da Bears.  The Brown Log respectfully disagree

BL Predicts

Browns 20
Bears    17

The BL are 9-4 year to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 13 vs the cheating New England Patriots

The Brown Log are now 9-3 year to date in predicting the outcome of Browns games.   If you stack us up against pundits who are actually paid for a living to cover the Browns you'll find that we are blowing the "experts" away.

Click on this link to see the record of the Plain Dealers staff.   Note that the best record amongst the "pros" is a paltry 7-5.

Week and week out, the so called experts let emotion overrule logic when it comes to our beloved Browns.  Football is an emotional game but more often than not, skills beat out emotion on the field of play.  This week however look for emotion to finally rise up and favor our Browns.  That and another important factor external to the field of play which is the heads up that Houston's Antonio Smith gave the NFL last weekend about the Patriots renewed cheating.

Everybody this week is predicting the Pats to win but there is an interesting bit of information that has leaked into the public's eye.    On December 1st at halftime the disgustingly bad Houston Texans were handling the Pats, leading by a score of 17-7.   In the second half, the Pats miraculously recovered and barely eked out a win, 34-31.   After the game the Texans Antonio Smith accused the Pats of cheating.
If you look at the Patriots team, their talent levels are not in line with their 9-3 record and in the past it is a known fact that the Patriots have employed sophisticated cheating schemes.   If you read what Antonio Smith had to say in the link, it is probable that history is repeating itself and the Patroits have morphed their cheating into new areas such as using electronic surveillance to listen in on opposing coaches.   The technology to do so exists, but perhaps the scumbag Bill Belichick has invested in duplicating what the NSA does to all of us.

I admire that our head coach Chud looks for every edge, week in and week out.   This week, I truly expect Chud to do everything in his power to avoid that the Patriots steal info from the Browns.  Without this edge, expect the Pats to be surprised by the Browns more than once.

Moving onto the players that will have to execute come game time, very thankfully Jason Campbell is starting for the Browns this week, and he has looked good in practice.   Campbell will likely go vertical a bit more than he has this year to break tendency and surprise the Pats.  With Josh Gordon emerging as the premier wideout in the NFL, and the Pats trying to handle Gordon by jamming him at the line of scrimmage but not double teaming him, I expect the Browns to break several big gains.  It is worth noting that the Pats have the worst run defense in the NFL and even the Browns with their pathetic rushing attack should be able to help Campbell by gaining a few yards on the ground.

On defense, our Browns will have their hands full with Tom Brady but look for Brady to struggle a bit if the Patriots are unable to decode information that they steal from the Browns.  The Browns defense will also be significantly better this week.   Speaking of experts who miss important factors, last week, none of the experts, either before or after the Browns game against Jacksonville, understood the negative impact that starting Darius Eubanks had on the Browns chances of winning that game.  Football is a game of 11 players vs 11 players, and if even one of those 11 players is not of NFL quality, it's a MAJOR disadvantage.   I actually isolated on Eubanks every play he was on the field vs the Jags and he consistently made bad reads that put him out of position to make plays against the run.   The handful of times Eubanks put himself in a position to make a play against the run, tiny Eubanks was manhandled by blockers in every case except one where he did make a tackle after a 3 yard gain.  Against the pass he wasn't much better.   When Eubanks was on the field vs Jacksonville, the Jags were able to run and pass the ball with little trouble because they were playing 11 players vs what effectively was only 10 NFL players for the Browns.   This week it looks like Craig Robertson is going to play instead of Eubanks and that is a huge plus for the Browns.

Finally and importantly, football is an emotional game and after Joe Haden's outburst last week and the embarrassing loss to Jacksonville, I expect the Browns to be highly motivated vs New England.


BL Predicts the Browns will pull off an upset

Browns    24
Patriots     16

The BL are 9-3 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts - Game 12 vs Jacksonville

This week's game is the hardest to predict this season because on paper it seems the Browns should win this home game but a few key factors give me pause.

Some factors to consider this week:

* Browns QB Brandon Weeden is 0-4 as a starter.   His counterpart, Chad Henne, is a slightly below average NFL passer.   Being a bit less than mediocre gives Henne a major advantage compared to the disastrous Brandon Weeden.   Sitting on the bench may indeed have given Weeden a few ideas on what he might do different.  For example, look for Weeden to heavily favor Josh Gordon today.   If Weeden simply flings it in Gordon's direction early and often it would be a major step in the right direction. However, expect Jacksonville to be ready.   If the Jaguars scheme to keep the ball away from Gordon it may foil Weeden's one chance at success by creating a turnover or two.   Chad Henne on the other hand will most certainly play more consistently than Weeden.

* The Browns will be playing Darius Eubacks at one of the ILB positions.   In the preseason, Joe Banner cut a number of veteran players in favor of lesser paid rookie free agents.   Those players released included promising 2nd year linebacker James Michael Johnson, who now makes a living for the 9-2 Kansas City Chiefs.   Another was a solid linebacker, LJ Fort.   The Browns saved cash by cutting more experienced players but they gambled that depth wouldn't be needed at LB at any point during the season.  The NFL season is long and here we are in the stretch run and the lack depth at linebacker is suddenly a potential game deciding issue.   Count on the fact that Jacksonville will isolate receivers against Eubanks and test him.  Eubanks was playing safety at Georgia Southern 12 months ago.  A few key plays should decide Sunday's game and I would be surprised if Eubanks is not on the wrong end of more than one big play.

* The home field should not be ignored but I'm guessing that many frustrated Browns fans are going to sit this game out, thus damping down the home field advantage for Cleveland.

* Weather will be cold and nasty.   Bad weather often affects QB's more than anybody and the fact is that Chad Henne has more experience playing in the cold than our own Brandon Weeden.

* Finally I'm sure that Chud would very much like to impress on his bosses that he can lead the Browns to a win at home against a team that the Browns "should" beat.   Look for Chud to try a few trick plays to surprise the Jags.   Chud's ability to get big plays this season by expert use of the element of surprise helped the Browns beat the Vikings and Bills.  I've got a feeling that Jacksonville will be on the lookout and for the first time this season, the tactic will not work.

Tough call but I see the Browns losing a difficult battle against Jacksonville:

BL Predicts:

Jacksonville    17
Browns           10

The BL are 8-3 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 11 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL fans have been predicting the decline of the Steelers since the beginning of the 2013 season and in fact the Steelers started off 2013 with 4 consecutive losses.  However forecasts of doom for the Steelers may have been premature, because since that 0-4 start, the Steelers are actually playing good football and have won 4 of 6 games.   Big Ben once again is playing at Pro Bowl levels and Antonio Brown is his favorite target.   The Steelers offense has been formidable in this 6 game stretch, averaging nearly 23 points per game.

Our Browns on the other hand have a world class defense together with an offense that needs help at nearly every position.   Most disturbing is the Browns utter inability to run the football.  A few weeks ago for instance, the Browns cut Bobby Rainey, who could barely gain 3 yards per carry in Cleveland and for the last few weeks in Tampa Bay, he's looked like a Pro Bowler, reeling off 2 strong games, including a 30 carries for 163 yard performance last week.   The Browns offensive line, simply cannot open holes in the running game, and even if you could reincarnate Jim Thorpe, you'd have a problem getting 4 yards per carry with this line.  

Jason Campbell is a credible NFL backup, but with 3 full games of film, NFL teams are quickly getting reacquainted with his strengths and weaknesses.   Keep Campbell in the pocket and your odds of beating him go up.

I believe in the advantage of playing on the home turf but that has to be coupled with all of the other factors.   Weather will likely be cold and difficult Sunday in Cleveland, adding import to the running game.   The running game is something decisively in the Steelers favor.

Look for a low scoring affair in which the Browns D holds Big Ben and crew to 20 points but the Browns offense will perform well below their own low potential.  A few key plays by Big Ben should turn the tide for the Steelers.  This game should mark the official end of all hope for Browns fans in 2013 so now we can focus our attention on who it is Mike Lombardi will draft in 2014 to finally save our Browns and bring us to the promised land. 

BL Predicts

Steelers 20

Browns 10

The BL are 7-3 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games. 

BL Predicts: Game 10 vs Bengals

Does it seem too good to be true that if the Browns were to win this week, they would find themselves in the drivers seat to gain a playoff spot?  Yes it does seem too good to be true and therefore I will be shocked if the Browns can pull out a win against the Bengals this week.

First let's remember that the home team wins on average 58% of the time in the NFL.   The Bengals are 4-0 at home this year while our Browns are 1-3 on the road.   Weather also promises to be a factor, limiting both teams ability to complete longer passes downfield and raising the importance of the running game.

Beyond that however, I see the Browns losing on Sunday though for one major reason.   Jason Campbell now has two full games under his belt which gives ample game film to the Bengals so they can scheme defensively to counter those aspects of the passing game in which Campbell has been outstanding in his two starts.   In the win against the Ravens, Campbell was consistently able to feel and move around in the pocket buying time that he used to complete numerous short touch passes to his receivers at critical moments against the Ravens.   Those passes led to the Browns win.   A deeper look at the metrics verify this.    75% of Campbell's passes this season have been thrown less than 10 yards in the air, and he's done just about ALL of his damage with those passes.

Look for the Bengals to work very hard to keep Campbell in the pocket and for the Bengals to focus their pass defenders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.   The Bengals will give Campbell some different looks, and try to slow him down.    If the Bengals can slow Campbell down early and force the Browns to try to run the ball, suddenly our resurgent Brownies will look very beatable once again.

A Jason Campbell focused defensive game plan combined with the home crowd advantage should be more than enough to drive yet another dagger into Browns fans hearts.   

BL Predicts

Bengals    24

Browns    16

The Brown Log are 6-3 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games. 

BL Predicts: Week 9 vs Ravens

Football is an emotional game, and division rivalries often come down less to talent and more to which team has an emotional edge.

Look for the Browns to drop another game this week.    The primary driver for a Browns loss really is that the Ravens are due for a big game, if they are to salvage playoff hopes this season. Baltimore are the reigning Super Bowl champs, and I see them being very motivated to drive home a win in Cleveland.  Meanwhile our Browns are due for a letdown. Hope is slipping away and we are already on our third QB of the season.  

If emotional analysis isn't enough for you, remember that the Browns have lost Travis Benjamin, who was one the the teams most important role players. Several key long gains and scores took place on special teams and on offense when Benjamin was on the field. The Brownies lost a major threat that opponents defenses had to account for. It's a seemingly small factor but football can be a game of inches.

BL Predicts

Ravens       23
Browns      13

The Brown Log are 6-2 year to date in predicting who will win Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 8 vs Kansas City

The Kansas City Chiefs are a good example of why the Marty Schottenheimer formula wins games.   Andy Reid has the Chiefs using a very Marty like ball control running and short passing game, thus giving opponents offenses less time to score points.   KC's offense averages over 32 minutes possession per game.  It's a pretty basic idea but if the other team doesn't possess the ball, it's a lot harder to score.

The other very Marty-like characteristic of this KC squad is that they do not make mistakes.  They turn the ball over rarely as witnessed by their +11 turnover ratio that leads the entire NFL. 

KC are on a roll right now.  Jamaal Charles is grinding out yards and Alex Smith keeps the chains moving with his short passes. 

Our Browns are a Jekyll and Hyde team.  With Brandon Weeden at the controls we are probably the worst team in the NFL but with Brian Hoyer our Browns looked like contenders.   With Jason Campbell now leading the way, we don't really know which kind of team our Browns will be.

Campbell looked very mediocre in the pre season but he's an experienced veteran who knows that preventing mistakes will be a key if the Browns have any chance to beating the Chiefs.  Furthermore Campbell adds a dimension to the Browns offense.   He can scramble for yardage.   I see Campbell scrambling early in the game for a big gain or two.  

The Browns will make a respectable showing, but when deciding if the Browns can upset the Chiefs or not, I keep coming back to the fact that when Marty coached our Browns they almost always won the games they were supposed to.   I think the Browns will play a very tight game on Sunday but with Andy Reid playing Marty ball in KC, it's hard to imagine his team losing this week.

BL Predicts:

Kansas City Chiefs     20

Cleveland Browns      17

The BL are 5-2 this year in predicting the winner of Browns games. 

Brandon Weeden leaving it all out on the field

Brandon Weeden gave Chud little choice but to bench him when he attempted The Flip II vs Green Bay.  With Weeden on the bench, all we're left with are these precious memories of Brandon Weeden leaving it all out there on the field of play.

BL Predicts: Week 7 vs Green Bay

Fans have been talking all week about how Chud should scheme to win with Weeden at the controls.   There's really only one way to do so, run the ball 60% of the time and be successful at it.   Put Weeden into a minimum number of situations where he can self inflict damage and put him into situations where the Pack are looking run so that Weeden has a chance to use that cannon of his against a defense that won't confuse him.

Unfortunately, the Browns don't have a running game to speak of and unless undrafted free agent Fozzy Whittaker comes out of nowhere to play a strong game, the Browns will find themselves relying on Weeden again on Sunday against the Pack.

The book on Weeden is out in the NFL.   Steelers pro bowl safety Ryan Clark had this to say about Weeden:

"For me, I feel like he's easier to defend,'' said Clark. "I think we'll do a good job against him, being able to confuse him, make him hold the ball and get some pressure, so Cleveland is definitely an easier team to beat with Brandon Weeden at quarterback.''

In obvious passing situations, Green Bay will succeed in confusing Weeden.   They'll drop into zone coverages with extra attention paid to Cameron and Gordon.   Weeden has difficulty coming off his primary target.    In the film I've reviewed, over and over again Weeden is unable to pull the trigger.   He sees a game that's moving too fast for him.   Typically opponents have dropped into zones and in slow motion it's easy to see Browns receivers with a step or two on defenders.  But the NFL game is not played in slow motion.   It's played at rocket speed and a QB has to be able to process plays in split seconds.  The best NFL QBs are able to do that but not Brandon Weeden.

BL Predicts:  Green Bay will cover the spread and beat the Browns rather handily.

Green Bay     27
Browns          14

The BL are 4-2 year to date in predicting who will win Browns games.

Insights into Brandon Weeden's vision

Take a close look at this sequence late in the game against the Bills

Photo 1:  Mitchell Schwartz has done a miserable job of pass blocking against Bills stud DE Mario Williams and Weeden is locked onto Greg Little so he has yet to note he's under pressure.











Photo 2:   Weeden now realizes that Williams is pressuring him and breaks free of Williams











Photo 3:   Mario Williams is now flat on the ground, Weeden is free of Williams.  The other 3 Buffalo Bills that are rushing Weeden are under control.   Weeden on this play immediately after breaking free of Williams chucks the ball out of bounds about 10 yards ahead of McGahee who can already been seen in the photo starting to break free of the linebacker #91 Spencer Johnson who was single covering him..  Weeden could have easily taken a few steps forward, bought himself 2-3 more seconds and given McGahee time to break completely free.

In Weeden's defense there were 2:25 minutes left in the game and the Browns were up by 3 points however the sequence clearly shows that Weeden had no count in his head of how many Bills had rushed him, which for an NFL QB is fundamental math he should do every play.   Weeden also had no clue about how much space he had once Williams had failed to sack him.   A 3 point lead with 2 minutes to go in the NFL is hardly a sure thing.   I believe most NFL QBs would have taken advantage of the extra 3 seconds they had on this play and tried to get the ball to McGahee.

Reasonable fans can argue about the result of this play but what appears to be certain is that Weeden panicked when in fact there were no Buffalo players in a position to sack him.

BL Predicts: Week 6 vs Lions

It's hard to understand the optimism that Browns fans feel about the 2013 season.  Personally, any optimism died when the Browns confirmed that Brian Hoyer is out for the season.   Hoyer had shown us all that the 2013 Browns had the talent to be a contender.  

Folks, Brian Hoyer is gone.   In his place returns Brandon Weeden and with the return of Weeden we return to slow reads, bad decisions, inaccurate passes, turnovers, three plays and out and losses.   Oh, and we'll also get to witness a couple of beautiful 70 yard touchdown flings interspersed among countless poorly executed passes during the rest of these games.

If nothing else, what Weeden's play will prove in 2013 is how critical the QB position is to an NFL team's results.  

BL Predicts:

Lions     23
Browns 13

The BL are 3-2 year to date.



 

BL Predicts: Week 5 vs Bills

Earlier this season my philosophy on picking Browns games this year was that I could achieve the best possible record of success by simply predicting the Browns would lose every week.   With Brandon Weeden at the controls, my record was in fact spotless.   However under the leadership of Brian Hoyer our Browns are indeed a completely different squad.

Hoyer's leadership, his ability to read defenses has led him to make decisive decisions and the passes he's throw have been surprisingly accurate with the right touch just about every time.   By leading long clock eating drives, it's also helped Ray Horton's defense emerge as a dominant force.  This is not any longer a bad team.   Even the trade of Trent Richardson seems to have hurt the Browns far less than anticipated.

Today we face a Bills team with a great defense however we also face a rookier QB in EJ Manuel.  Look for the Brownies to take advantage of Manuel's lack of experience on one or two key plays and look for Hoyer to keep leading his teammates to victory.

BL Predicts

Browns   20
Bills        10

The BL are 2-2 year to date

BL Predicts: Week 4 vs Cincinnati Bengals

The Browns have resolved a major issue by replacing Brandon Weeden with Brian Hoyer.   Weeden flat out lacks the vision, leadership and skill to be an NFL quarterback.  Watching Brian Hoyer play Sunday against Minnesota made it clear that Weeden is the worst QB to take the field for the Browns this century.

That stated, let's not get carried away.   Hoyer's tangible skills are quite average for an NFL QB.   He's not elusive, nor does he have anywhere near Weeden's rifle arm.  What Hoyer does possess are leadership skills that are top notch.  Unlike Weeden, Hoyer has the capacity to see the 11 defenders on the field of play and make the correct reads quickly.  Finally, Hoyer can place a football accurately if passing within his range.  

With the trade of Trent Richardson the Browns have no running game.   That will be a real issue against the Bengals.

On defense, the Browns front 7 take a backseat to nobody in the NFL.  That means our Browns can shut down the running game and pressure a QB.   That takes pressure off a mediocre defensive backfield.  The Bengals however have talent everywhere on offensive and an above average QB who takes what the defense gives him and doesn't hurt his team with slow or poor decision making.   Andy Dalton will absorb some blows from the Browns defense but he'll eventually find holes as the game progresses and put up points.

Last week we faced a Minnesota team that had several defensive backs injured and were not able to make adjustments to take out Josh Gordon.  The Bengals have depth and talent on defense and furthermore have a week of film of both Gordon and Hoyer.

It'll be back to reality this week against the Bengals who have too much talent for our Brownies.   I see Hoyer and his teammates battling and putting up a good fight but the Bengals will eventually wear them down.

BL Predicts:

Browns 21
Bengals 31

The BL are 2-1 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 3 vs Minnesota Vikings

I have to confess that up until Wednesday evening, I was seriously pondering the possibility of predicting a Browns victory Sunday in Minnesota.   Then the NFL and Browns fans around the world were rocked by the stunning trade of Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts.

Football is an emotional game.   More than any other sport an emotional edge can help a team sustain a winning effort on any given Sunday.   I believed that the entrance of Brian Hoyer this week as the Browns QB might give our Browns a boost.  Hoyer is a rather mediocre QB, which in my view places him well ahead of the disastrous Brandon Weeden.  However what I really like about Hoyer is the strong leadership he displays.   Hoyer knows how to create intensity with his teammates, something that Brandon Weeden has no idea how to generate.    How does Hoyer do it?   By decisiveness about how each play needs to be executed, enthusiasm and directness in the huddle and sacrifice and courage on the field of play.   Weeden is often confused instead of decisive, monotone as opposed to enthusiastic, and visibly afraid.

With a boost from Hoyer on top of a Ray Horton led defense that is playing very well, I believed the Browns could win in Minnesota.   However the Richardson trade has thrown a shadow of doubt over everything.   By far the worst element in this fiasco was the fact that the Browns organization, led by President Joe Banner, did not have the courage, discipline and class to inform Richardson he was traded.   Instead, Trent found out by listening to the radio.   I have run a large organization and always made it a matter of pride to deal directly and forthrightly with difficult matters.   This builds trust and motivation.

No matter how it is spun, when leadership in an organization avoids delivering difficult messages to it's employees, those employees lose motivation and commitment because they don't trust the people who lead them.

Our Browns players are professionals and many of our leading players have great character, but emotion is a fuel that can add passion or take it away.  I am convinced that because our Browns are led by players like D'Qwell Jackson and now Brian Hoyer, they will start out Sunday with motivation however faced with a hostile crowd and coming off a draining week noted by a serious erosion of trust by Joe Banner, that motivation will dissolve as the game progresses.

I believe that the Browns will start off very well against the Vikings, but will not be able to sustain that intensity and we are going to lose a very close one Sunday in Minneapolis.

BL Predicts

Browns       13
Vikings       17


The BL are 2-0 year to date on the prognostication front.

Jimmy Haslam: NFL's beloved crook

Jimmy "the weasel" Haslam is squeezing money out of Our Browns that he needs badly to defend himself from numerous civil cases and probable pending criminal charges with Pilot Flying J.  Whether or not Haslam is charged by the FBI remains to be seen but it's already conceded by Haslam that his company cheated truckers out of rebates. Since Haslam is CEO of the company, if he was unaware of the fraud going on in his company, he's a fool. Sincerely speaking, Haslam strikes me as a lot of things, but a fool is not one of them.

If Haslam were a player and robbed a truck driver of a few hundred dollars, he'd already be out of the NFL because the league has shown that it will harshly discipline all players embroiled in any legal controversy.   However Haslam's company robbed truck drivers in a white collar crime, something NFL owners feel much more empathy for.  For proof that the NFL owners support Haslam and his businesses criminal acts look no further than their pledges of loyalty and support. Insider old boy club called NFL could not give a crap about Browns fans.

another shady Haslam deal

Here's a bit of news we had no idea about.  Haslam's ties to a murky investment in Louisiana to truckstops with gambling that ended in bankruptcy for the primary investor.  

Who is the real villain?   The NFL, for allowing this shady character to purchase our Browns.

Speechless

The Browns trade Trent Richardson to Indy for a late first round pick??

Speechless.

After one day however it's hard not to wonder if the Browns haven't dumped Richardson because Browns owner Jimmy Haslam needs cash due to his criminal issues at Pilot Flying J.   The prestigious Forbes magazine wondered the same in this article.

Brian Hoyer to start

Maybe there is yet hope for the 2013 season in Cleveland.  Chud announced today that Brian Hoyer will start game 3 in Minnesota.

There are two things we have seen thus far this season:

1.  The game still has not slowed down for Brandon Weeden.  To quote ex Browns head coach Sam Rutigliano, "Weeden still seems to see the defense like it's Times Square on New Years eve."  I have watched both Browns games several times and the theme that continues to emerge is that Weeden almost always waits until a receiver comes wide open before he's willing to pull the trigger.   This is why Weeden's passing metrics in the red zone were horrible last season and it's why neither Norv Turner's vertical passing game nor the shotgun formation will magically transform Weeden into a star.

2.  Our defense is legit.   If you don't give up points you can't lose.  Of course, the Browns D has given up a few points this year and the team has lost.   But a closer look shows that the Browns D has gotten weaker in the second half as Weeden led "drives" stall out over and over again and our D is on the field far more than opponents.

The bottom line:  If Cleveland simply had a mediocre QB instead of a below average QB, with our outstanding defense, this team could rack up a decent run of winning.

Brian Hoyer looked very good against the Bears in the preseason.   Of course it's true that the Bears were playing second team players and vanilla defensive formations however my evaluation of Hoyer against Chicago is strictly on his soft skills.

Hoyer played with an intensity required of an NFL QB, he showed non stop leadership which was in stark contrast to the "deer in the headlights" look that Weeden often has.   Football is an emotional game and a QB that understands how to tap into those emotional levers can drive performance of his team.   Finally it's true that Hoyer has nothing near to Weeden's arm however, Hoyer was able to throw the ball accurately to players in traffic, something Weeden either cannot do or is not willing to do.

Look for the Browns to give Minnesota all they can handle this Sunday and barring injury to Hoyer, look for Weeden to have taken his last snap as a Cleveland Brown.

BL Predicts: Week 2 vs Baltimore

The Brown Log start week 2 of our season of predictions ahead of 100% of the local Cleveland pundits because nobody and I do mean nobody predicted a Browns loss except for us.

What is astonishing about this fact is that we felt it was obvious the Brownies were going to get their asses handed to them by the Dolphins.   If nothing else, Browns fans are eternal optimists.

A detached analysis of the facts is better than emotion when trying to prognosticate.  In that spirit let's take a look at week 2.

A reminder should be made right now.  The Baltimore Ravens, as painful as it is to say it, are the defending Super Bowl champions.   They lost Ray Lewis to retirement and Ed Reed to free agency along with a few role players like Browns linebacker Paul Kruger but the core of the team is intact and Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome has a strong history of bringing in new talent that can stand out.

A second reminder can also be made.   The Browns stink and this week they play on the road where even good teams usually lose.

Upsets do happen in the NFL.  Sometimes a great gameplan can compensate a gap in talent or sometimes your opponents star player simply has a bad day.    I see none of the pre conditions for an upset.   Chud and Norv Turner are still struggling to get their hands around this team and the emotional edge rests firmly with Baltimore.  If anything the Browns players are demotivated by the big loss last Sunday and further by the fact that Joe Banner and Mike Lombardi let go of so many talented players before week 1.

The Ravens will be motivated even more by the fact that this is their home opener.  The BL see Baltimore delivering their fans a W and Sunday looks to be another very long painful day for our Browns.

BL Predicts:   Ravens by 3 touchdowns

Ravens 31
Browns 10

The BL are 1-0 year to date on the prediction front.

Why neither Norv Turner's vertical scheme nor the shotgun formation will make Brandon Weeden a Superstar

Both Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill are second year quarterbacks in the NFL.  Both are viewed as mediocre however a closer look at the Browns Dolphins game today reveals one important difference.   An NFL QB must be able to anticipate when a receiver is coming open and be capable to accurately thread the needle to complete a pass.

Tannehill has enough field vision, anticipation and accuracy to throw passes in traffic.   A good example of this capability is the below pass by Tannehill to #42 Charles Clay.  Clay has a linebacker on his back but Tannehill knows that Robertson is not going to be able to make a play on the ball if he locates his pass accurately.   Watch today's game closely, outside of the red zone Weeden did not attempt a single pass to a receiver in traffic.   This is one reason that Weeden was hit 16 times today.  It was obvious on many occasions that Weeden held the ball longer than designed, while he waited for defensive coverage to break down so he had an open shot at a receiver.

It's difficult for an NFL QB to improve his field vision, even with experience.  The ability to see a player come open, is a God given gift and Weeden doesn't have it.

BL Predicts: Week 1 vs Miami Dolphins

Many Browns fans are filled with optimism as the 2013 season approaches because the Browns coaching staff appears to be, for the first time in ages, a legitimate staff with a reasonable strategy.  That's probably true however last time I checked, talent rules the day in the NFL and our Browns are a team full of holes in their lineup.

It's true that the home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL but I don't see the home field being enough of an advantage for Cleveland.   Look for the Dolphins to overwhelm the Browns with talent, taking special advantage of the lack of depth that the Browns have in the defensive backfield, to break numerous big plays.   On offense the Dolphins should be able to take advantage of 3rd string RG Oniel Cousins, a player who has no business starting in the NFL.  By beating Cousins  the Dolphins can put enough pressure on Weeden to get him panicking and also help limit the damage Richardson can do on the ground.

I hope I'm wrong but on paper it sure promises to be a long day for the Browns.

BL Predicts

Dolphins 31
Browns  17

Half empty or half full

The pre season is finished and once again many Browns fans out there are optimistic about the prospects for our Browns in 2013.  Why do fans see the glass as being half full you ask?   Beats me because if we look at the facts 2013 promises to be as dreadful a year as any in the last decade.

Let's stack up just a few:

- in the opening game our right guard is Oniel Cousins.   Mr. Cousins is not an NFL quality player and since this is a game of 11 offensive players against 11 defenders, it's already a major disadvantage to have one player that the defense can dominate.

- Our starting right cornerback Buster Skrines, is not a very good NFL player.   He will be eaten alive by opposing QBs.

- The Browns personnel office, led by Mike Lombardi is currently scouring the waiver wires to try to find a place kicker... uh, one week before the start of the NFL season.   I don't get why Browns fans are not in a panic about that bit of horrible planning.

- The Browns personnel office, led by Mike Lombardi is currently scouring the NFL waiver wires looking for key position players to help us at cornerback, right guard and free safety.  That means that other NFL team's rejects will be contributors on the Browns.

- As of today our Browns have 5 undrafted free agents who made the 53 man roster.  Chud calls this a "great job by the scouting staff."   Others might call it desperation driven by the fact that we do not have enough talent on the team.

Ask yourselves how many undrafted players in the history of the NFL have made the Canton Hall of Fame or even the Pro Bowl.   The answer is an extraordinarily low percentage.   Does that mean Josh Aubrey or others won't be any good.  No it does not, it just means that the percentages tell us they probably will not.  Factor in Mike Lombardi's 20 year track year on picking talent and the odds get even lower. Even when skilled personnel execs are choosing the players, it's high draft picks that tend to become stars for NFL teams not undrafted free agents.

Do I think the Browns are going to win 7 to 9 games this year like most of the local journalists do?  Just remember those writers who state the Browns will win 8 games all are worried about getting press access to the team.  I could care less if Joe Banner ever talks to me and so I'll predict 1-4 wins in 2013 is much more likely to be the outcome for our Browns
.

Criminal Collecting Cards

In a new feature, designed to help fans keep up with the off field exploits of Cleveland Browns associates, The Brown Log are proud to introduce Criminal Collecting Cards.

Our first associate featured is defender Desmond Bryant:

The NFL: White collar crime is ok?

It's a well known fact that 27 NFL players have been arrested in 2013 for various crimes including Aaron Hernandez' arrest for murder.   Generally the reaction of the league and it's franchises has been swift.  Cut ties with players, period.

When Jimmy Haslam is indicted for fraud, does anyone think the league will react with similar pragmatism?   Doubtful.  The old boys club stays together and Haslam is a paid in full member of the old boys club.   The fact that the accusations against Haslam translate into his taking money from the pockets of millions of truckers means little or nothing to the NFL.  

Jim Brown and trust

There is no question that Brown's great Jim Brown has earned the trust of Northern Ohio.

By signing Brown to an official role with the Cleveland Browns, Jimmy Haslam hopes to achieve 2 things:

1.  Change the subject in the local community from his legal woes to football.
2.  Transfer some of Jim Brown's trust with the community, earned over the last 50 years to Jim Haslam.

In the press conference in any case, questions about Haslam's legal woes came up, much to the chagrin of Mr. Haslam who would like that we ignore that ominous cloud hanging over OUR team.  I'd argue that the only way Haslam will gain the trust of the local community is first to get through his legal battles with the FBI and come out the other side clean and second, by winning NFL games.

Jim Brown joining the team is certainly good news, but Haslam's still the owner.  After a week in which Haslam fired over 1200 Cleveland based employees of Tenable Protective Services and replaced them with a company from Pennsylvania, my guess is that in spite of the hiring of Jim Brown, Jimmy Haslam on net, lost ground with Cleveland fans this week.

More bad news for the Browns and Jimmy Haslam

Two employees of Pilot Flying J have pleaded guilty and revealed further details of the criminal rebate fraud allegedly perpetrated for years by Pilot Flying J.

Haslam continues to state that he had no knowledge of how his company was defrauding customers of millions of dollars day to day.

If looks could kill

Here's a photo of Jimmy Haslam snapped at Pilot Flying J headquarters in the hallway outside a conference room where Haslam was to give a briefing on the Pilot Flying J scandal.  Clearly the photographer did not have permission to be taking a photo outside the meeting room and ole' Jimmy was not the least bit pleased that this breach was taking place.

Meanwhile this week Haslam looked to Brown's great Jim Brown hoping that the trust and goodwill Brown was in the community might rub off.   My favorite summary of that press conference comes from the Plain Dealer's Bud Shaw who wrote the following:

Browns dump Locally owned Tenable Protective Services

Details are beginning to emerge today via social media that the Cleveland Browns have dumped locally owned Tenable Protective services in favor of a Philadelphia based supplier.   According to sources 1100 full time local positions are at risk.  My guess is that the Philadelphia based service will rehire many of the Tenable employees, albeit at a lower salary.

This is a bad sign the new owner is focused on profit and furthermore his legal troubles may be forcing him to squeeze cash from all available sources.

We will be monitoring this breaking story.


From a FACEBOOK post made today:

Class Action Lawsuits: 7 Browns Ownership: 0

In what may be a foreshadowing of the upcoming Browns season, there are now 7 class action lawsuits against the Browns Owner, Jim Haslam and to date the best Haslam has come up with to manage the situation is a bit of a Hail Mary.   It appears that Haslam's opponents (formerly known as his customers) are piling on class action lawsuits against Pilot Flying J.   Haslam may be mired in legal issues for years, which will leave the dream team of Joe Banner and Mike Lombardi to manage the Browns......

Browns draft grade

Haslam legal troubles

Great article by the Nashville Scene on Haslam.
Bottom line is that Haslam had to know about the rebate fraud in his company.

A key snippet below:

Mike Lombardi

In 2007, when the Raiders drafted JaMarcus Russell, Mike Lombardi was the Raiders top executive in charge of player personnel. Russell is commonly viewed as the worst draft pick in NFL history. Over time Lombardi has managed to spread the story that he really wasn't in charge of that draft. Al Davis made the pick of Russell.

Earlier this week when the Browns picked DE Barkevious Mingo with their first round pick, it was hard not to recall that the last time Lombardi picked a LB in round 1 he was employed as Director of Personnel for our Browns and picked Craig Powell.  When I pointed that out several fans answered that Belichick, not Lombardi, was pulling the strings in that draft. 

It's simply not true that Lombardi was not involved in numerous failed draft picks but you do have to take your hat off to Mike Lombardi for his incredible ability to manipulate the media and revise history when it suits him. 

Most pundits have Browns fighting for top draft pick in 2014

In other words, experts are lining up to say that the Browns may well be the worst team in the NFL next year.

We have somehow gone from being in the forth year of Mike Holmgren's five year plan, to being in year one of Joe Banner's five year plan.   More losing is on the horizon.

Pilot Flying J targeted Hispanics.

More fun from the Pilot Flying J affidavit.

Judgement day - Brandon Weeden

There is been a lot of speculation among fans, about Brandon Weeden's future in Cleveland.  Today we will find out what Cleveland really thinks about their quarterback.  With his legal problems, Jimmy Haslam will be under pressure to win immediately in Cleveland. If the Browns don't believe in Brandon Weeden, today they surely will draft a quarterback. If they do believe in Weeden, they will wait.

From the affidavit - Pilot Flying J internal conversations

The below conversation was secretly recorded by the FBI during their investigation of Pilot Flying J.  The conversation can be found on the the FBI affidavit about the Pilot Flying J matter.

Note how leadership in Pilot Flying J take advantage of their customers, note the lack of respect towards customers and note the use of off color language. 

Browns lousy ticket holder support

As a Browns season ticket holder I've found that if I have a question for the Cleveland Browns support staff that involves generating revenue for the team, question are answered immediately. If however I have a complaint, it's as if I don't exist.  

I'm in my second season as a ticket holder so except for about 4 months, Jimmy Haslam has owned the team during the time I've held season tickets. I have to ask the question now that I see how Pilot Flying J is run, if the Browns focus on cash and their lack of focus on customer services is a result of poor leadership or worse, organizational philosophy.

Browns season ticket holders invited to cruise ship event

Comparing Haslam's statements on Tuesday vs Thursday

I believe Jimmy Haslam was completely shocked when he got his hands on the FBI affidavit and discovered that the Feds possess numerous recorded conversations AND cooperating witnesses INSIDE Pilot Flying J.   He had to have choked when he realized that !!!

His tone changed today in his statement to the press from Tuesday's minimizing and dismissive statements to today's more somber comments.  Here's what Haslam said today Thursday April 18:


“I read the affidavits and I understand more clearly the questions the federal investigators are exploring. I maintain that the foundation of this company is built on its integrity and that any willful wrongdoing by any employee of this company at any time is intolerable.
“We will continue to cooperate with the federal investigation and continue our own investigation in these allegations. I value the relationships we have with our customers, our vendors and our team members across this country and regret that they have to go through this with us, but I trust and believe their faith in this company and its principles has never been misplaced.”

Here is what Haslam said Tuesday April 16:

"The FBI secured our headquarters today and informed us they are investigating Pilot Flying J," Haslam said in an email statement to the Knoxville News Sentinel. "We will cooperate appropriately with any and all external investigations and conduct our own. I believe and trust there has been no wrongdoing. The integrity of our company always has been job No. 1."

Looks a bit less sure of himself today, no doubt.

Only in Cleveland, Ohio.... the saga of Jimmy Haslam

The Feds have TONS of evidence, recorded phone calls, insider cooperation, etc....   Pilot Flying J is in big trouble.  I think it's going to be hard to pin much on Haslam based on what I read in the FBI affidavit, and I read  the entire doc.  Haslam kept himself out of the overt fraud talks but the company is going to have their sales force ripped to shreds and customer trust is going to be damaged to the point that the company could be threatened.  And that's not even beginning to talk about the people who may go to jail and the fines that Pilot Flying J will face. 

I know that as a Browns season ticket holder, I wonder how much unethical activity is already starting in the Browns org.  I can't remember who said it but as the saying goes, a corpse rots from the head first.

Stunning affidavit on Pilot Flying J

It's all here folks, the entire affidavit can be found in this article from the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  Stunning evidence that the FBI has collected on Pilot Flying J.  The Feds have recorded phone calls and overwhelming evidence that Pilot Flying J was systematically defrauding customers.

A nice little sliver below:

Only in Cleveland could it happen that our team gets bought by a gazzillionaire who's wealth appears to be built based in large part on a scheme that Don Vito Corleone would be impressed by.

Browns update

Haslam Flying J HQ in lockdown mode

The FBI and Internal Revenue Service agents on Monday locked down the headquarters of Pilot Flying J, the truck stop business owned by the Haslam family.   In the Corporate world, it's rare that a major Corporation has it's HQ locked down.  It's a drastic step.

The press is not reporting why, but normally if the FBI and IRS together, there's going to be some sort of criminal tax evasion involved. 

Gruden on Matt Barkley

Goodbye and good luck, Colt

From Kevin Lynch of the San Francisco Examiner regarding the 49ers acquisition of Browns quarterback Coly McCoy (I cannot say I disagree here):

One key fact: McCoy will no longer have to wear the orange of his college and first professional team. That could improve his play dramatically.

Are the Browns really after Geno Smith?

The NFL Draft has become a poker game.   Here are a list of reasons the Browns might be bluffing their true draft intentions and in fact are really looking to draft Geno Smith with their first round pick.

- After a few months of lukewarm comments about Brandon Weeden, suddenly Browns coaches are making positive comments to the press but they still refuse to commit to him.   Why the change in tone?  Is it a smoke screen?   Weeden was the worst QB in the NFL last year in the red zone and not much better in any of his other metrics.  Now all of the sudden the Browns see some good things about Weeden?  On defense the Browns have shown their hand, they want to run a modern, attacking high octane D that puts pressure on offenses.  Do we really believe that all of the sudden, the Browns new leadership is willing to bet the team's future on a plodding QB with poor field vision?

- Mike Lombardi has had a muzzle put on him.   Joe Banner says this is because he wants Lombardi 100% focused on the draft.  My opinion is that Banner doesn't believe Lombardi can keep his mouth shut.  Lombardi has been a member of the press for many years now and there is a risk that Lombardi, with a free hand to talk to the press, will reveal something about the Browns views on Smith that will tip off other teams to the Browns intentions.

- The Browns will have a private workout with Geno Smith.  When asked why the Browns are investing in a private workout with Smith, Banner dismisses the notion that the Browns are in fact truly interested in Smith, going to great pains to underline that QB is NOT the focus of the Browns in this draft and that they are only evaluating Smith to make sure they complete their due diligence.  Smells like a bluff to me.

- The Browns have been very active signing free agents, and have filled some of the holes on defense that had been previously thought might be filled in the draft.   The Browns are now positioned to draft an offensive player in this draft. 

Joe Banner likes to run a tight organization and it seems odd to me that suddenly the entire organization is underlining that QB is not our draft focus, are sending positive signals on Weeden, at the same time the team is working out Geno Smith.    And why the muzzle on Mike Lombardi?

What just might be happening is that the Browns are trying their best not to alert the rest of the league that Geno Smith is the guy they want for Chud's modern high powered O.   So you read it here first, Geno Smith will go somewhere in the first 6 picks of this draft, and the only way the Browns won't get him is if another team grabs him earlier. 

BL Predicts: The Super Bowl

The BL took a 6-2 playoff prediction record into the conference championships and blew it by predicting both losers to win.  Hence our record to date for the playoffs rests at 6-4.

Today's championship game promises to both close and fun.   Neither Harbaugh brother is going to have his team anything less than 100% ready to play.

The Ravens have an emotional edge with Ray Lewis playing his last game and furthermore their QB Joe Flacco has been in the zone the entire playoffs raising his performance significantly.

The 49ers have a read option QB in what may be the beginning of a new era of NFL football in which this style offense conquers the game.   On the downside the Niners have a kicking game in disarray which could kill them in a close game.

While some see the read option is a gimmick, I see it as an evolution of the game.  Much like Bill Walsh's west coast offense, Joe Gibb's single back or Bill Cowher's zone blitzes.  Teams that innovate first have historically won Super Bowls.   Colin Kaepernick is wonderful to watch.   Cool as ice, he throws the prettiest spiral I've seen in a long time and he seems to up his game when under pressure.

I'm going with innovation as the difference maker today and furthermore I'm betting that Jim Harbaugh will find a way to outfox his younger brother.    

49ers            34
Ravens         24

BL Predicts: Conference championships

Last week the BL slipped to a 2-2 record after our perfect first week.   I'll say this, if Denver simply knew how to play prevent defense we'd have been 3-1 but I am not complaining.   It was wonderful to watch a John Elway team lose one that they should have won.

This week I believe there is one easy game to predict and one that's quite difficult.

Baltimore          21
New England    31
The Patriots have too much firepower for the Ravens.

Atlanta              30
SF                     28
As a fan, I would love for SF and their young QB Colin Kaepernick to win this game.   But one lesson I've learned predicting games is to remove emotion.   The reason I'd like SF to win is that I believe a running QB is an evolution to the NFL game, not a gimmick.    The passing game has become so important that most defenses are 100% focused on defending the pass downfield.   3-6 men will pin back their ears and rush while the remaining defenders are 100% focused on pass defense.   The read option offense, driven by a QB who can run and pass, is the perfect tactical counter to sophisticated pass defenses and I believe that read option teams are going to win Super Bowls in the next 5 years.   Were SF to win the Super Bowl this year, it would prove the point a bit early, however let's say that this Super Bowl is the last hurrah for traditional QBs.

Atlanta has home field advantage and a more experienced QB.   Furthermore they've had time to put in some special wrinkles for San Fran's young QB.   I underline young because this is a championship game and let's remember that Kaepernick has less than one full season of starting experience.   Mistakes often decide playoff games.   Odds are the Kaepernick is going to make a key error at some point and if he does, Atlanta will win a close one.

BL Predicts - Divisional playoffs

Last week the BL had a perfect week, assisted by the fact that I've had a very similar injury to RGIII and recognized that he was in far worse condition than everybody was letting on.   This week I don't have any extra insights other than the fact that home field advantage is huge in the NFL, in particular during the playoffs.   This week, I'll predict that the home field will be decisive in 3 of the 4 games.

Baltimore     14
Denver         27
The weather is going to be bad and the altitude is always "mile high" which makes it even more challenging for visitors.  These factors together with Peyton Manning's leadership should lead to an easy Denver win.

Green Bay              31
San Francisco         17
The 49ers are seriously banged up.  The home field advantage here won't be enough.

Atlanta     28
Seattle     27
Toughest game to predict.  History shows us that teams who have a history of  losing key games, continue to lose key games.   Furthermore, Seattle is a team on the rise.   But I think Atlanta's talent advantage and home field advantage will help them finally get a W in the playoffs.   It'll be close.

Houston           17
New England    33
New England wins easy at home

BL Predicts - Playoff predictions

Cincinnati   21
Houston      24
Houston's home field advantage just too much to overcome for the Bengals, who will play tough.

Minnesota 17
Green Bay 27
Green Bay will handle Minnesota at Lambeau.

Indianapolis  13
Baltimore 27
Luck will be out of luck in the playoffs on the road

Washington  21
Seattle  33
Toughest game to predict but I thought RGIII was limited because of his knee injury vs Dallas and late in the game, when escaping a sack, I clearly saw Griffin re injure the knee.   How badly the knee is hurt is the decisive factor in this game.   One thing is for sure and that is that Seattle's rookie QB Russell Wilson is 100% and playing at the top of his game.   If RGIII is 100% I'd be predicting the Skins to win but he's not.   Seattle pulls away to win this one.

Weeden's inaccurate rookie year

The BL has decided to rely on statistical facts when it comes to assessing Brandon Weeden.  As they say on Dragnet, "just the facts please."

Weeden was ranked number 29 out of 32 QB's in passer rating during his rookie campaign.  Many pundits are willing to forgive him that ranking because the passer rating system is a confusing formula driven by many metrics.  However when looking deeper into Weeden's stats some troubling trends show up.  First of all, as we pointed out in a previous blog, Weeden was absolutely terrible in the red zone with a 41% completion percent in the red zone.   Go sit in the corner rookie because you flunked that test.

Moving to other metrics where one would think that Weeden's rocket arm would help.  A strong arm is supposed to be Weeden's biggest asset but on passes thrown 20 yards or longer, he has one of the lowest completion percentages in the NFL.  In 2012 Weeden threw 52 passes that were in the air for 20 yards or more but only completed 11 of those passes.   What good is it having a rocket arm if you're inaccurate??

Of major concern is Weeden's drop in accuracy when throwing to the sidelines.   When throwing to the left sideline, Weeden completed only 50% of his throws and when throwing to the right sideline Weeden completed only 53.4%.   Even Ryan Fitzpatrick, universally viewed as an ordinary QB, has better numbers than Weeden when throwing to the sidelines.   Only Andrew Luck drops below Weeden on left sideline passes with a 47% completion rate.    No QB came close to Weeden's high intercept rate on sideline passes.

The sideline pass is a basic staple of a great QB and Weeden struggles here badly.  Particularly troubling is Weeden's interception rate on sideline passes.  It's more proof that Weeden has real issues with his depth perception and his ability to see the play unfold at the velocity of the NFL.   The numbers don't lie -

Weeden passing stats:

Fitzpatrick passing stats:

RGIII passing stats:

Russell Wilson passing stats:

Luck passing stats:

Peyton Manning stats:

Aaron Rodgers stats: