First let's remember that the home team wins on average 58% of the time in the NFL. The Bengals are 4-0 at home this year while our Browns are 1-3 on the road. Weather also promises to be a factor, limiting both teams ability to complete longer passes downfield and raising the importance of the running game.
Beyond that however, I see the Browns losing on Sunday though for one major reason. Jason Campbell now has two full games under his belt which gives ample game film to the Bengals so they can scheme defensively to counter those aspects of the passing game in which Campbell has been outstanding in his two starts. In the win against the Ravens, Campbell was consistently able to feel and move around in the pocket buying time that he used to complete numerous short touch passes to his receivers at critical moments against the Ravens. Those passes led to the Browns win. A deeper look at the metrics verify this. 75% of Campbell's passes this season have been thrown less than 10 yards in the air, and he's done just about ALL of his damage with those passes.
Look for the Bengals to work very hard to keep Campbell in the pocket and for the Bengals to focus their pass defenders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. The Bengals will give Campbell some different looks, and try to slow him down. If the Bengals can slow Campbell down early and force the Browns to try to run the ball, suddenly our resurgent Brownies will look very beatable once again.
A Jason Campbell focused defensive game plan combined with the home crowd advantage should be more than enough to drive yet another dagger into Browns fans hearts.
BL Predicts
Bengals 24
Browns 16
The Brown Log are 6-3 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.
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