Last week the BL slipped to a 2-2 record after our perfect first week. I'll say this, if Denver simply knew how to play prevent defense we'd have been 3-1 but I am not complaining. It was wonderful to watch a John Elway team lose one that they should have won.
This week I believe there is one easy game to predict and one that's quite difficult.
Baltimore 21
New England 31
The Patriots have too much firepower for the Ravens.
Atlanta 30
SF 28
As a fan, I would love for SF and their young QB Colin Kaepernick to win this game. But one lesson I've learned predicting games is to remove emotion. The reason I'd like SF to win is that I believe a running QB is an evolution to the NFL game, not a gimmick. The passing game has become so important that most defenses are 100% focused on defending the pass downfield. 3-6 men will pin back their ears and rush while the remaining defenders are 100% focused on pass defense. The read option offense, driven by a QB who can run and pass, is the perfect tactical counter to sophisticated pass defenses and I believe that read option teams are going to win Super Bowls in the next 5 years. Were SF to win the Super Bowl this year, it would prove the point a bit early, however let's say that this Super Bowl is the last hurrah for traditional QBs.
Atlanta has home field advantage and a more experienced QB. Furthermore they've had time to put in some special wrinkles for San Fran's young QB. I underline young because this is a championship game and let's remember that Kaepernick has less than one full season of starting experience. Mistakes often decide playoff games. Odds are the Kaepernick is going to make a key error at some point and if he does, Atlanta will win a close one.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
Saturday, January 12, 2013
BL Predicts - Divisional playoffs
Last week the BL had a perfect week, assisted by the fact that I've had a very similar injury to RGIII and recognized that he was in far worse condition than everybody was letting on. This week I don't have any extra insights other than the fact that home field advantage is huge in the NFL, in particular during the playoffs. This week, I'll predict that the home field will be decisive in 3 of the 4 games.
Baltimore 14
Denver 27
The weather is going to be bad and the altitude is always "mile high" which makes it even more challenging for visitors. These factors together with Peyton Manning's leadership should lead to an easy Denver win.
Green Bay 31
San Francisco 17
The 49ers are seriously banged up. The home field advantage here won't be enough.
Atlanta 28
Seattle 27
Toughest game to predict. History shows us that teams who have a history of losing key games, continue to lose key games. Furthermore, Seattle is a team on the rise. But I think Atlanta's talent advantage and home field advantage will help them finally get a W in the playoffs. It'll be close.
Houston 17
New England 33
New England wins easy at home
Baltimore 14
Denver 27
The weather is going to be bad and the altitude is always "mile high" which makes it even more challenging for visitors. These factors together with Peyton Manning's leadership should lead to an easy Denver win.
Green Bay 31
San Francisco 17
The 49ers are seriously banged up. The home field advantage here won't be enough.
Atlanta 28
Seattle 27
Toughest game to predict. History shows us that teams who have a history of losing key games, continue to lose key games. Furthermore, Seattle is a team on the rise. But I think Atlanta's talent advantage and home field advantage will help them finally get a W in the playoffs. It'll be close.
Houston 17
New England 33
New England wins easy at home
Saturday, January 5, 2013
BL Predicts - Playoff predictions
Cincinnati 21
Houston 24
Houston's home field advantage just too much to overcome for the Bengals, who will play tough.
Minnesota 17
Green Bay 27
Green Bay will handle Minnesota at Lambeau.
Indianapolis 13
Baltimore 27
Luck will be out of luck in the playoffs on the road
Washington 21
Seattle 33
Toughest game to predict but I thought RGIII was limited because of his knee injury vs Dallas and late in the game, when escaping a sack, I clearly saw Griffin re injure the knee. How badly the knee is hurt is the decisive factor in this game. One thing is for sure and that is that Seattle's rookie QB Russell Wilson is 100% and playing at the top of his game. If RGIII is 100% I'd be predicting the Skins to win but he's not. Seattle pulls away to win this one.
Houston 24
Houston's home field advantage just too much to overcome for the Bengals, who will play tough.
Minnesota 17
Green Bay 27
Green Bay will handle Minnesota at Lambeau.
Indianapolis 13
Baltimore 27
Luck will be out of luck in the playoffs on the road
Washington 21
Seattle 33
Toughest game to predict but I thought RGIII was limited because of his knee injury vs Dallas and late in the game, when escaping a sack, I clearly saw Griffin re injure the knee. How badly the knee is hurt is the decisive factor in this game. One thing is for sure and that is that Seattle's rookie QB Russell Wilson is 100% and playing at the top of his game. If RGIII is 100% I'd be predicting the Skins to win but he's not. Seattle pulls away to win this one.
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Weeden's inaccurate rookie year
The BL has decided to rely on statistical facts when it comes to assessing Brandon Weeden. As they say on Dragnet, "just the facts please."
Weeden was ranked number 29 out of 32 QB's in passer rating during his rookie campaign. Many pundits are willing to forgive him that ranking because the passer rating system is a confusing formula driven by many metrics. However when looking deeper into Weeden's stats some troubling trends show up. First of all, as we pointed out in a previous blog, Weeden was absolutely terrible in the red zone with a 41% completion percent in the red zone. Go sit in the corner rookie because you flunked that test.
Moving to other metrics where one would think that Weeden's rocket arm would help. A strong arm is supposed to be Weeden's biggest asset but on passes thrown 20 yards or longer, he has one of the lowest completion percentages in the NFL. In 2012 Weeden threw 52 passes that were in the air for 20 yards or more but only completed 11 of those passes. What good is it having a rocket arm if you're inaccurate??
Of major concern is Weeden's drop in accuracy when throwing to the sidelines. When throwing to the left sideline, Weeden completed only 50% of his throws and when throwing to the right sideline Weeden completed only 53.4%. Even Ryan Fitzpatrick, universally viewed as an ordinary QB, has better numbers than Weeden when throwing to the sidelines. Only Andrew Luck drops below Weeden on left sideline passes with a 47% completion rate. No QB came close to Weeden's high intercept rate on sideline passes.
The sideline pass is a basic staple of a great QB and Weeden struggles here badly. Particularly troubling is Weeden's interception rate on sideline passes. It's more proof that Weeden has real issues with his depth perception and his ability to see the play unfold at the velocity of the NFL. The numbers don't lie -
Weeden passing stats:
Fitzpatrick passing stats:
RGIII passing stats:
Russell Wilson passing stats:
Luck passing stats:
Peyton Manning stats:
Aaron Rodgers stats:
Weeden was ranked number 29 out of 32 QB's in passer rating during his rookie campaign. Many pundits are willing to forgive him that ranking because the passer rating system is a confusing formula driven by many metrics. However when looking deeper into Weeden's stats some troubling trends show up. First of all, as we pointed out in a previous blog, Weeden was absolutely terrible in the red zone with a 41% completion percent in the red zone. Go sit in the corner rookie because you flunked that test.
Moving to other metrics where one would think that Weeden's rocket arm would help. A strong arm is supposed to be Weeden's biggest asset but on passes thrown 20 yards or longer, he has one of the lowest completion percentages in the NFL. In 2012 Weeden threw 52 passes that were in the air for 20 yards or more but only completed 11 of those passes. What good is it having a rocket arm if you're inaccurate??
Of major concern is Weeden's drop in accuracy when throwing to the sidelines. When throwing to the left sideline, Weeden completed only 50% of his throws and when throwing to the right sideline Weeden completed only 53.4%. Even Ryan Fitzpatrick, universally viewed as an ordinary QB, has better numbers than Weeden when throwing to the sidelines. Only Andrew Luck drops below Weeden on left sideline passes with a 47% completion rate. No QB came close to Weeden's high intercept rate on sideline passes.
The sideline pass is a basic staple of a great QB and Weeden struggles here badly. Particularly troubling is Weeden's interception rate on sideline passes. It's more proof that Weeden has real issues with his depth perception and his ability to see the play unfold at the velocity of the NFL. The numbers don't lie -
Weeden passing stats:
Fitzpatrick passing stats:
RGIII passing stats:
Russell Wilson passing stats:
Luck passing stats:
Peyton Manning stats:
Aaron Rodgers stats:
Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Weeden's future
Yesterday Joe Banner and Jimmy Haslam rendered their decision on Tom Heckert and Pat Shurmur's judgement. Heckert and Shurmur's biggest decision in 2012 was to bet the Browns future on Brandon Weeden. While it would be an oversimplification to blame the Browns record exclusively on Weeden's mediocre debut, it's also true that RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson all had game changing seasons as rookie QBs (it must be particularly galling to the Browns VIP's that Wilson was a third round pick).
Some people still believe that Brandon Weeden can develop into a top tier QB but how likely is it that a new coach will be willing to risk his own future on Weeden? In today's win now at all costs NFL, the BL says "not very."
Weeden has an arm capable of making long throws that few QB's are capable of . However during the typical NFL game, passes thrown in the air longer than 20 yards are almost always less than 4 per game so the long pass really only serves to loosen up the short passing game. Where a rifle arm most helps are on sideline throws of 10-20 yards. Unfortunately, Weeden was one of the least accurate passers in the NFL on sideline passes.
Why? Weeden has a critical flaw, limited field vision and even with a rocket arm, his poor field vision limits his accuracy to well below the median for an NFL QB. The list of rifle arm QBs who never made it big is a long one. For Brown's fans, Mike Phipps would be a familiar example. Vinnie Testaverde would be another. Testaverde had a long career and often put up great numbers but time and time again he failed under pressure, and he never took a team to the Super Bowl. Brandon Weeden locks onto his receivers from the snap of the ball and in the second half of the NFL season, defenses started to lock onto Weeden's eyes. The result was several key interceptions that led directly to losses. Weeden's 41% completion percentage in the red zone is even further proof that his ability to play at the speed of the NFL is limited.
Historically a QB like Weeden would have been given several years to adapt to the speed of the NFL but given the win now mentality in the league, and given Weeden's age (and Banner's aversion to 30 year old players), I think Weeden's days as a Cleveland Brown starter are numbered.
In Weeden's favor is the fact that this years draft is not loaded with the same level of talent at QB that the 2012 draft was so the new coach may have no choice but to consider Weeden but at the very least
look for the Browns to bring in a new QB to compete with Weeden for playing time.
Some people still believe that Brandon Weeden can develop into a top tier QB but how likely is it that a new coach will be willing to risk his own future on Weeden? In today's win now at all costs NFL, the BL says "not very."
Weeden has an arm capable of making long throws that few QB's are capable of . However during the typical NFL game, passes thrown in the air longer than 20 yards are almost always less than 4 per game so the long pass really only serves to loosen up the short passing game. Where a rifle arm most helps are on sideline throws of 10-20 yards. Unfortunately, Weeden was one of the least accurate passers in the NFL on sideline passes.
Why? Weeden has a critical flaw, limited field vision and even with a rocket arm, his poor field vision limits his accuracy to well below the median for an NFL QB. The list of rifle arm QBs who never made it big is a long one. For Brown's fans, Mike Phipps would be a familiar example. Vinnie Testaverde would be another. Testaverde had a long career and often put up great numbers but time and time again he failed under pressure, and he never took a team to the Super Bowl. Brandon Weeden locks onto his receivers from the snap of the ball and in the second half of the NFL season, defenses started to lock onto Weeden's eyes. The result was several key interceptions that led directly to losses. Weeden's 41% completion percentage in the red zone is even further proof that his ability to play at the speed of the NFL is limited.
Historically a QB like Weeden would have been given several years to adapt to the speed of the NFL but given the win now mentality in the league, and given Weeden's age (and Banner's aversion to 30 year old players), I think Weeden's days as a Cleveland Brown starter are numbered.
In Weeden's favor is the fact that this years draft is not loaded with the same level of talent at QB that the 2012 draft was so the new coach may have no choice but to consider Weeden but at the very least
look for the Browns to bring in a new QB to compete with Weeden for playing time.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)