Weeden's future

Yesterday Joe Banner and Jimmy Haslam rendered their decision on Tom Heckert and Pat Shurmur's judgement.  Heckert and Shurmur's biggest decision in 2012 was to bet the Browns future on Brandon Weeden.  While it would be an oversimplification to blame the Browns record exclusively on Weeden's mediocre debut, it's also true that RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson all had game changing seasons as rookie QBs (it must be particularly galling to the Browns VIP's that Wilson was a third round pick).

Some people still believe that Brandon Weeden can develop into a top tier QB but how likely is it that a new coach will be willing to risk his own future on Weeden?  In today's win now at all costs NFL, the BL says "not very."

Weeden has an arm capable of making long throws that few QB's are capable of .  However during the typical NFL game, passes thrown in the air longer than 20 yards are almost always less than 4 per game so the long pass really only serves to loosen up the short passing game. Where a rifle arm most helps are on sideline throws of 10-20 yards. Unfortunately, Weeden was one of the least accurate passers in the NFL on sideline passes.

Why?  Weeden has a critical flaw, limited field vision and even with a rocket arm, his poor field vision limits his accuracy to well below the median for an NFL QB.   The list of rifle arm QBs who never made it big is a long one.  For Brown's fans, Mike Phipps would be a familiar example.  Vinnie Testaverde would be another.  Testaverde had a long career and often put up great numbers but time and time again he failed under pressure, and he never took a team to the Super Bowl.   Brandon Weeden locks onto his receivers from the snap of the ball and in the second half of the NFL season, defenses started to lock onto Weeden's eyes.  The result was several key interceptions that led directly to losses.   Weeden's 41% completion percentage in the red zone is even further proof that his ability to play at the speed of the NFL is limited.

Historically a QB like Weeden would have been given several years to adapt to the speed of the NFL but given the win now mentality in the league, and given Weeden's age (and Banner's aversion to 30 year old players), I think Weeden's days as a Cleveland Brown starter are numbered.

In Weeden's favor is the fact that this years draft is not loaded with the same level of talent at QB that the 2012 draft was so the new coach may have no choice but to consider Weeden but at the very least
look for the Browns to bring in a new QB to compete with Weeden for playing time.