BL Predicts: Week 7 - This "is" still the Cleveland Browns people

In face of all rational logic, I just have a bad feeling this week folks.

This game will be the true test of Mike Pettine in his farewell season as Browns head coach.  Jimmy Haslam has proven to Cleveland fans that he demands short term perfection even if success in the NFL requires long term commitment.  Pettine knows he is on the spot right now, fighting for his job but I don't see Cleveland being healthy enough, talented enough and experienced enough to make this the season that the Browns pull off a worst to first type of transformation.

Derek Carr is a rookie QB but he has shown signs that he is ready to emerge.  Furthermore against the Brown's break but don't bend defense, Carr has the type of arm that can break big plays.  The Browns D is banged up, Carr just might be ready for a big game in what looks to be unseasonably good weather Sunday in Cleveland.

Last week the Jaguars gave the NFL a blueprint on how to control the Browns zone blocking scheme.   The Raiders run a 4-3 which is the perfect formation to counter zone blocking.   Defensive linemen need to penetrate, stay in their lanes and let linebackers do their job.

Once you defang the Browns run game, Brian Hoyer transforms into just another average QB.  The Raiders have struggled against big armed QB's this season but against Tom Brady, who Brian Hoyer is often compared to, the Raiders had a very respectable showing, holding Brady and the Pats to 16 points.   With Hoyer forced into obvious passing situations, the Raiders can pin their ears back and pressure him into incompletions and costly mistakes.

On offense, Derek Carr has shown, in the words of Mike Pettine, that he can make all the passes.   The Browns and their 12 defensive backs will have their hands full, especially if the Raiders are able to run the ball early.  I'm going with a season deflating upset.

BL Predicts:

Raiders     28
Browns     17

The BL are 3-3 year to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 6 vs the lowly Jags

A lot of Browns fans are counting on an easy win Sunday in Jacksonville.  I agree on one count only.   The Browns are going to win, but it won't be easy.

After Alex Mack left the Steelers game last Sunday with his season ending injury, I focused my binoculars on John Greco and Paul McQuistan.   I was impressed by both, the Browns didn't lose a beat as both Greco and McQuistan were particularly dominant while run blocking.  The zone blocking scheme of Kyle Shanahan stood out.  The Browns were successful to move the entire Steelers defense en masse, at times it seemed to me that the Steelers D played into the Browns hands by trying to move with their blockers towards the Browns running back.   Penetrate gaps and hold your lane is what I was thinking Steelers defenders should do.   Reading up this week on tactics to stop a zone blocking scheme verified my thoughts.  Zone blocking is best countered with a 4-3 lineup whose lineman penetrate and stay in lanes.  Let the outside linebackers do their job to contain and the middle linebacker must make a lot of tackles.

If I am Jacksonville, I'm going to focus on stopping the Browns zone running by playing a lot of 4-3 and daring Hoyer to pass.  I think this strategy will in fact work and the Jags will hold the Browns offense a season low in points.

That brings us to the other major factor this week.   A rookie QB with penchant for pick 6's.   There's a reason coaches hate rookies and Blake Bortles is showing us that reason.   He has given up 3 pick 6's this season.   At times he has looked great, many others he's looked like, well, Brandon Weeden.   in the Hoyer vs Bortles matchup, I'm guessing Hoyer will make fewer mistakes and that will be the difference this week.   The only thing that could really muddy my prediction up is if, instead of passing, when in doubt, Bortles runs the ball.   Then we could have a major problem, but I think the Browns will bottle him up no matter what he does.

In what will be a close one, I see our Browns sneaking out of Florida with a W.

BL Predicts

Browns    19
Jags          17


The BL are 3-2 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Browns vs Steelers, Ch ch ch changes

For nearly 4 years, predicting the Browns to lose nearly every week has provided the Brown Log with tangible evidence of our ability to see and predict the future with stunning accuracy.  However, last Sunday in Tennessee may have provided evidence that the times they are a changing.

The 2014 season will turn on what happens Sunday vs the Steelers and there are three keys to the game.

First, Joe Haden must find a way to play.  Ben Roethlisberer abused Justin Gilbert every chance he had in the season opener and the Browns have to find a way to keep Gilbert off the field.

Second, the Browns must put strong pressure on Big Ben.

Third our offense has to continue to move the ball on the ground and keep the ball out of Pittsburgh's hands. 

For the first time in a long time, the Brown Log believes that the Browns will actually win a game.

BL Predicts:

Browns   23

Steelers   21 

The BL are 2-2 season to date in predicting the winner of Browns games. 

BL Predicts: Browns vs Titans without rose colored glasses

The home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL.   That's a fact so when predicting a road team to win in the NFL, you must have a strong reason because the odds are stacked against the road team.

Browns fans wear rose colored glasses more than any fans in the league, hence the majority of Clevelanders predict a win this Sunday in Nashville.   Pundits expect the Browns to improve significantly Sunday and they probably will get better in certain phases of the game.  Our D in fact, can't get much worse.   However don't expect that the Titans were sitting around looking for ways to get worse.  They too will get better this Sunday.

So while the Browns should improve their defense, the team will digress in other phases of the game.  The Browns are the only team in the entire NFL without a turnover this season and look for that streak to end Sunday under the pressure of a rowdy home crowd in Nashville and an aggressive Titans defense led by Ray Horton that focuses on creating turnovers.   On the road, turnovers often make the difference and I expect the Browns to make up for lost time Sunday with at least two turnovers.

We see the Browns losing a tight one Sunday in which a few key turnovers will impact the result of a close battle

BL Predicts

Titans       19
Browns    13

The BL are 2-1 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.