BL Predicts: Week 12 vs Bills

Until last weekend, I thought that the fact that the Browns have managed to continue to win while being decimated by injuries was a tribute to team unity and game planning.   The win against the Falcons also convinced me that even with the injuries, people like myself have ignored the fact that the Browns also have talent that still differentiates them.   Players like Joel Bitonio are playing at a Pro Bowl level and are a significant upgrade to the team vis a vis the 2013 season.   Add in Josh Gordon who is the most talented receiver in the game and the Browns can compete with anyone.  Mike Pettine knows the value of running the clock down via a ground attack and so this team is going to compete every week.

This week we face a Bills defense that is rated as one of the best in the NFL both against the run and pass.   The Bills O, led by Kyle Orton, does not turn the ball over.

All of the above leads to what surely will be a close battle Sunday in Buffalo.

Injuries once again could prove to be the difference.  Losing Gibson is another massive loss but what I've noticed against Atlanta however is one injury nobody is aware of.   Against the Texans, late in the game, Brian Hoyer took a heavy hit and had to fight to recover his senses.   He's not been the same since and my best guess is he's very banged up.   The 3 intercepts against the Falcons stand as evidence.   Hoyer hasn't performed that badly in his career and the Falcons are not even that good a team.   I saw a tentative Hoyer, who appeared to be playing in pain.

Look for a close game, I hope I'm wrong but I see the Bills holding on for a win against the Browns

BL Predicts

Buffalo    21
Browns    13

The BL are 5-6 year to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 11 vs Falcons

Just about everything is working against the Browns in their matchup vs Atlanta this week:

- The Browns are on the road
- The Falcons are on a roll
- The Falcons play a 4-3 defense which is the best formation to stop the zone blocking running scheme that the Browns run
- Matt Ryan and his offense play well at home.
- The Browns have been decimated by injuries and go into this weeks game losing their QB on defense in Dansby along with key pass rusher Jabaal Sheard.   Dansby is much better than Craig Robertson in pass coverage and look for the Falcons to exploit Robertson.

Josh Gordon's return could be a major boost to the Browns but both Gordon and the offense may need time to adjust to each other and Gordon likely needs reps to get back to full game speed.  I'd be pleasantly surprised if Gordon is a game changer out of the box.

The Falcon's defense is not good and neither is the Browns but the trends on the two units appear headed in opposite directions.   The Falcons D has given up 17 points in each of the last two weeks whereas the Browns have lost key players to injuries and played poorly vs Houston.

BL Predicts:

Falcons     30
Browns     17


The BL are 5-5 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.  

BL Predicts: Week 10 vs Texans

Concern is the operative word for today's match up vs the Texans.   While part of the caution is due to still not being able to believe the Browns are for real after so many years of losing, part of the nervousness about today's game is simply sound analysis of the facts:

- The Browns have been severely damaged by injuries.   Now Phil Taylor is gone for the season.  He joins Alex Mack, Jordan Cameron, Johnson Bademosi, John Hughes, Armonty Bryant and the suspended Josh Gordon.  It's a tribute to the coaching of the Browns that they continue to win.  I've also noticed center Nick McDonald limping severely late against Cincinnati.

- The Texans have lost 5 games this year but each time they've lost it's been a battle.  Today against the Browns the Texans have top draft pick Jadeveon Clowney coming back.   

- Several of the Browns opponents have successfully schemed their defense to stop the Browns running game but no opponent has really found a way to limit Brian Hoyer on play action naked role outs.   However the Texans have JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney and let's imagine "what if" the Texans guess correctly a few times that Hoyer will pass off play action.  Hoyer would get crushed.

There are also some points of major concern for Houston:

- They're on the road vs Cleveland and we all know the home team wins 58% in the NFL.

- The Texans will miss Arian Foster.

- Most importantly, the Texans will start a QB who will play for the first time in an NFL game.   Ryan Mallett is not a rookie however.  He is a third year vet who's had plenty of time to get ready for his NFL debut and he's had a lot of time while with the Pats to study Mike Pettine's defense. 

Mallett starting his first game is a concern for Houston but it's also a major concern for Cleveland.  We don't have game film on this guy.  Cleveland knows how important this is.  For example, early in his miserable career, Brandon Weeden had a few decent games but once there was plenty of film for teams to study, it became clear that Weeden could be easily confused and he buckled under pressure.   Once NFL teams figured this out, Weeden never won another NFL game.  Look for Cleveland to make every effort to put Mallet under pressure but he may well be prepared for this.  

So how will the Browns play today vs Houston?:

This is going to be a very close game.  Coach Pettine's decision to keep running the ball eats valuable time off the clock which assures close games and Brian Hoyer has made wise decisions when passing.

Ryan Mallett starts in the NFL for the first time and the Browns will likely blitz him a lot.  Houston knows this and may well be ready with quick passes and deception. 

There's so much riding on this game for Cleveland.  If they arrive to 7-3 their odds of making the playoffs go through the roof.  Too good to be true?   We are jaded, aren't we fellow Browns fans.

I think the Browns are too banged up and Ryan Mallett will be able to establish a rhythm that goes against what the Browns are planning for.  I am also very worried that Brian Hoyer will be injured as the Texans plan to attack him on likely play actions.   We may very well see Johnny Football today due to Hoyer getting banged up and if we do, he won't play as well as Hoyer.     

BL Predicts:

Texans    24

Browns   20

The BL are 4-5 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.  

BL Predicts: Week 9 vs the Bungles - Beating the odds?

Can the Browns beat the odds and walk away with a W in Cincy tomorrow evening even though there are are numerous factors stacked against them?

* Cincinnati has not lost a regular season home game since the 2012 season and the Bengals are returning to full strength with AJ Green no longer injured, and while Giovani Bernard is hurt, the Bengals have Jeremy Hill emerging as a potential game changing talent in their backfield. 

* The Browns have been poor on the road this season at 1-2 including an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars.

* The Browns have been badly decimated by injuries and the suspension of key players.  Alex Mack, Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron & Phil Taylor.   There is a risk that Andrew Hawkins won't play Thursday evening and a key special teams player, Johnson Bademosi is out too.

In the aggregate these factors say the odds are the Browns will lose but on the plus side the Browns are playing as a team with a QB that is a courageous leader who inspires his teammates.  Emotion is a big part of a football game and the Browns might have an emotional edge Thursday evening.   Will that be enough?

What about coaching and game plans?

The Bengals will play it very conventional Thursday night, doing the things on offense and defense that they always do.   The Browns know what to expect.   I see the Browns, on the other hand, changing tendencies they've shown year to date, debuting some new plays and perhaps even some trickery.

The Browns will give the Bengals all they can handle for 2-3 quarters but in the end the Bungles will simply wear out the Browns, who have suffered too many injuries.  The Browns will give us something to cheer for tomorrow but in the end I think the Bengals will win.

BL Predicts

Browns        24

Bengals        31

The BL are 4-4 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games .

BL Predicts: Week 8 - Browns vs Bucs

Last week, Donte Whitner's game changing tackle forced a turnover and stopped an Oakland drive.   Entire season's can hinge on plays like that and we have to tip our hat to Whitner because he truly earned his pay and then some last week.   Oakland, in spite of their winless record, is a team with excellent talent, they just haven't put it together yet.

This week however, the Browns play a team that has holes everywhere.   Tampa run a 4-3 defense which is ideally suited to stopping zone blocking run offenses but the Bucs also don't have the same talent level as Oakland and Jacksonville.   I see the Browns being able to run the ball against Tampa.

For Cleveland more than any team in the NFL, our run game opens up the pass game.

The Brown Log see the last easy win of the season for the home team.

BL Predicts

Browns        27

Tampa Bay  13

The BL, for the first time in this blogs history, are below .500 for the season, with a 3-4 record predicting the winner of Browns games.   It simply gets a bit harder to foresee the winner when the Browns don't lose 80% of their games.