The Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday Jan 18, 2021:  Browns vs Chiefs

"What have you done for me lately?"

  

The Chiefs went 14-2 this season but fact of the matter is that during the last month of the season, Kansas City was not at it's best.  Since the day Mitchell Schwartz went down, the Chiefs offensive line has struggled and so has Patrick Mahomes.   Late in the regular season I watched the Chiefs vs the Dolphins game.  The Chiefs won that game 33-27 but they struggled all game long, Patrick Mahomes was intercepted 3 times.

Meanwhile, in the last 2 months, the Browns have an emerging franchise QB, who will play behind the league's best offensive line.  The Cleveland Browns are the hottest team in the NFL

The question today is how often can the Browns force the Chiefs into turnovers.   Whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game.

My money is on the Browns to shock the non Cleveland world with another big win.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns     33

Chiefs       30

The Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday January 10, 2021:  Browns vs Steelers 

Wild Card Game

Getting Lucky?

Might the Covid disaster of this past week be a bit of extraordinary good luck for our Browns?

Crazy thought say you?  Well, conventional wisdom has been proven wrong over and over again during the 2020 NFL Season:

• CONVENTIONAL WISDOM:  NFL teams need a preseason to be "sharp".   WRONG:  Without a preseason NFL teams looked sharp on day one and continued to play well all season long.
• CONVENTIONAL WISDOM:  Practice makes perfect.  WRONG:   Due to Covid protocols, many practices had to be cancelled during the season.   The Browns and other teams found that Zoom meetings and virtual practice sessions work.   

Practice is important but we never think about the wear and tear on the bodies of these athletes.  At this point in the season, the Browns are a well oiled machine.  They are also beat up with nagging injuries.  We have all heard coaches state at this point in the season there are no NFL players that are 100% healthy.   

Is it possible that a few extra days of rest will result in a fresher, faster team on Sunday?

One might worry about mental preparation but we just spent the entire previous week getting ready for the exact same Steelers team.  This week our Browns tuned their tactics, they are already well schooled on Steelers schemes.

We are going to find out Sunday night just how important resting bodies might be.  The NFL is brutal on a man's body, I believe the extra rest at this point is a plus that outweighs on field practice.

As for the loss of Kevin Stefanski.  All season long he has led the Browns strategy and tactics.  He has held both players and assistants accountable.  I would argue that our playoff game vs the Steelers will be the ultimate proof that the team is well run.  

It's true we have key players out with Covid, we may get some back just in time.   Getting Ward back in particular would be huge but let's also focus on who we do have.   We have Baker Mayfield, perhaps the most motivated QB in the NFL, who after 3 seasons of learning under 4 coaches, now appears to have the light going off in his head about how to win in the NFL.   Perfect timing.   

Baker will be the difference Sunday evening, he is going to put the team on his shoulders, build his legend and take the Browns to the next round.   

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns   27

Steelers   24

Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday Jan 3, 2021:  Browns vs Steelers

"One step at a time" 

I love Browns fans who have an irrational optimism in the face of any negative information.

This week our Browns have faced obstacle after obstacle due to injuries and the Covid crisis.  A list of 3 starters and 2 regulars will have to miss the Steelers game including Sendejo, Goodson, Ward, Bryant and Malcolm Smith.   In addition Takitaki has an ankle injury as does Wyatt Teller.   Both may play but will they be effective?

Meanwhile the Steelers have decided to rest 4 key starters including Big Ben and star players Maurkice Pouncy, TJ Watt and Cam Herward.

The conclusion of Browns fans?   Our lost players are easily replaceable, the Steelers lost players are irreplaceable.   Sunday is a sure win!   Great!

But wait a minute....  

I hope and pray I am wrong but I feel nowhere near as confident as the legions this Sunday.  

Here are my reasons why:

• Practice is important.   The Browns have missed one on field practice this week as Covid protocols drove delays and cancellations.   The Browns ability to drill their game plan has to be impacted.   A missed day of on field practice is not just made up by staying extra on Friday and Saturday.   The cycle of preparation has been changed, in a game of inches it could be a factor.
• The Steelers are deep.  There are many examples here but my favorite is Avery Williamson, a linebacker acquired together with a 7th round draft pick during this season from the Jets in exchange for a 5th round draft pick.   The Browns could have had Williamson too but analytics must have said "wait until next year to invest in linebackers".  Williamson is a good player and last week contributed a sack in the key Steelers victory.
• The loss of Goodson and Ward in particular transform the Browns defense into one that is vulnerable even to a QB like Mason Rudolph.
• While many are quick to dismiss Rudolph as worthless because he had a terrible game last season vs the Browns, he is fresh, healthy and has a 5-3 career record as a starter.  Rudolph may not be more than an average NFL QB but he certainly is capable to move the Steelers offense especially with a patient short passing game mixed with an occasional deep throw. 

My final point is that football is an emotional game and there are finally signs that the emotional high that carried the Browns in November and December is starting to fracture.  Baker Mayfield, our franchise QB, had another "Jesus Tony" moment this week, only this time with Mary Kay Cabot.  Baker's passion drives his success but his cocky answer to Mary Kay is all about barking to the press instead of focusing on biting the opponent.   I love Baker and fully believe in him but in the NFL he needs to focus his energy and prep 100% on the opponent.   Last year in the game after his "Jesus Tony" incident, the Browns lost to a very beatable Denver Broncos team who were using their 3rd QB.

I will be thrilled if I am wrong but I see a heartbreaker coming.

If we lose, hopefully we get some help and still get into the playoffs.

If not, transforming the Browns into a playoff team requires many steps and Sunday may just be another lesson learned along the way to the Browns becoming a playoff team.   

Brown BLog Predicts

Steelers   17

Browns    16

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