Brown BLog Predicts: AFC North 2026

 2026 is  year of change for the AFC North with 2 Hall of Fame level coaches moving on in Pittsburgh and Baltimore.   Kevin Stefanski was fired which leaves the Bengals as the only AFC North team returning a Head Coach this season.

Here are my predictions for each team:

First Place:  Cincinnati Bengals   11-6

- Everything still depends on Joe Burrow staying healthy.   If he does, the Bengals are Super Bowl  contenders

Second Place:   Cleveland Browns  9-8

- OK before you tell me I am crazy, I would like to point out that last year I nailed 5-12 for our Browns, most pundits had them doing much better.  And I have been a Browns pessimist for years now.   In 2024 most everyone had the Browns as a 10 win+ team.  I had 7-10.  They finished 3-14 of course.  

So why the sudden optimism???  Because I believe Deshaun Watson is healthy and because I believe Todd Monken actually knows what to do with Deshaun Watson and has the talent at receiver to make a real go of it.  Layer in a weak schedule and I see a surprise in store this season in Cleveland.   

I believe Deshaun Watson will be Comeback Player of the Year this season and the Browns will be entertaining and competitive.

Third Place:  Baltimore Ravens  7-10

Something feels wrong in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson's contract extension not done.    

Is Lamar unhappy?  I think that is likely.   

Is he 100% healthy?   He wasn't last year. Maybe years of risky running have him worn down.

Is Jesse Minter the next John Harbaugh?  I don't think so, he is definitely not the next Mike Macdonald either. 

I see a tough year ahead for the Ravens.  I still think they are a smart and well run org but maybe this year they won't be as lucky as they need to be.

Last Place:   Pittsburgh Steelers   6-11 

Mike Tomlin had 19 consecutive non losing seasons.  Look for that streak to come to an end this year.  A QB who is too old with plainly diminished skills and a Head Coach who won't be able to shape a game plan that wins more than half the games like Tomlin did every year.

Seriously?!?!?!

 

Inside the building in Berea I imagine this shirt evokes knowing grins and belly laughs that derive from a collective organizational belief that the Browns front office is more clever than other NFL front offices.

If you have grown up in Cleveland and supported the Cleveland Browns your entire life & have family members who loved the Browns and rooted for dynasty Browns Hall of Famers like Bill Willis, Marion Motley, Jim Brown and Otto Graham, all world class athletes who spent their careers as Cleveland Browns winning championships and did not have to be pawned off to fuel yet another epic run of analytics driven rebuild losses, what this shirt translates to is "Hey Browns fans, Trust us or Fuck off!"

Typical tone deaf bullshit.....from an org that is very soon going to ask for 5 figure PSL fees from season ticket holders like me who are (were) looking forward to the Brook Park Dome.

My retort to this display of ignorance is "you better start demonstrating that brilliance very soon by winning NFL games" otherwise my answer to the request to pay an exorbitant PSL fee is going to be a big fat "NO THANK YOU!" followed by "Los Angeles made me do it".........................

Dillon's "Injury"... A Perfect Solution to the Browns having their Bluff called

This morning the Browns leaked that Dillon Gabriel was going to make their 53 man roster.

This evening he was placed on Injured Reserve for an injury that took place in the New England game.

Fact - Most NFL players are nursing some pain. 

Here is my opinion of what happened today.  Under normal circumstances I would say Gabriel would play through whatever back pain he has.  But since the Browns were not able to engineer a trade AND the Browns did not want to risk losing Gabriel to a future opponent early in the season, the Browns were able to manipulate the NFL's enormous medical gray area. An NFL quarterback can have back spasms, soreness, inflammation, etc., while reasonable doctors could disagree about whether he is capable of playing football. I am sure the Browns' medical staff legitimately documented Gabriel's back condition and concluded rehabilitation is appropriate but let's get real.  If Gabriel was #1 or #2 and even #3, he'd be dressing on September 13....

Dillon Gabriel: The Power of Positive Leaking!!

The Browns have already leaked that they intend to protect Dillon Gabriel as their QB 3.

I like to call this stage of every preseason, the Brown's "Norman Vincent Peale" stage.   Every pre season right before cut down, the Browns try to bluff the rest of the NFL about the odd man odd in their QB room in hopes that some other NFL GM bites.   Two years in a row the result was Tyler Huntley getting cut and picked up by the Ravens.

There is no doubt come end of day Sunday, the Browns will have 4 QB's on their 53 man roster.  But will NFL General Managers panic and give up a draft pick for Gabriel.  Seriously?   The problem with Gabriel that most NFL exec's understand is that even if he were 6' 5" tall, his arm isn't good enough for the NFL.

It is a dangerous game because our second opponent Tampa just cut their veteran second string QB Jake Browning and now have rookie UDFA Jalon Daniels as their backup.  I cannot imagine the Bucs giving up anything for Gabriel, but I could well imagine the Bucs jumping on Gabriel when the Browns are forced to cut him.  

Will the Browns find a suitor for Gabriel who is willing to part with a 6th or 7th round draft pick???  

I doubt it....  but if and when they finally cut Gabriel a few days later, somebody like Tampa will pick him up if for no other reason than to download a few insights into the Browns playbook...  

Browns Communication Suggestion: Just tell the fucking truth for God's sake...

 

The Cleveland Browns have known for months they are going to start Deshaun Watson at QB during the 2026 NFL season yet because they feared public reaction they've shaped a false narrative to avoid the subject altogether.   They make this mistake over and over and over and over and over again.

I suppose it's a reflection of their leadership which seeks to avoid pain and might be isolated from how normal people think in Northern Ohio.

This should not be complicated.  Don't overthink it.  The Browns should simply communicate truthfully with the public.   

The have a QB in  Deshaun Watson who once was a top 5 QB.   Injuries, bad scheme, suspensions, off the field issues have all played their role in his under performance but it's obvious to me at least, he's still got elite skills.  What is so damn hard about being honest with the public? 

The Browns could have got past all the public angst months ago had they simply stated the obvious fact that Deshaun Watson would be their QB this season.

Deshaun's Blow Up

 I once watched a documentary about Brett Favre that revealed over the top character flaws that made Deshaun Watson's alleged misdeeds, by comparison, seem mild.  Yet Favre to this day is mostly idolized by fans across the nation.   The conversation about why probably involves race and other nuances I'm not interested in delving into, but suffice it to say I feel like if you've followed Deshaun Watson's career it's clear he's a good teammate, probably a good guy and the venom that some Browns fans express is rooted in issues that go well beyond anything Deshaun Watson is responsible for.   Did Watson do some things he's not proud of.  Sure, most human beings have something in their past they regret.   Pro athletes especially young wealthy men, have opportunities thrown at them they never imagined when they were young and poor.  That can lead to a sense of entitlement that often goes wrong.  That's what i think happened and  I have no problem saying Watson is probably a good man who today has learned and matured.

I was in the stands Saturday for the Bills pre season game.  I didn't boo but there were enough fans who did to make me uncomfortable.    Half the fans in a half empty stadium were Bills fans and they didn't boo either, so at best, it can be said that a few hundred to a few thousand Browns fans feel the need to disrespect Deshaun Watson.  

I am worried something deeper is going on because Watson didn't play well and my worry is that his right arm is sore.   His velocity was off, if he's hurting that is very bad news.   I don't think Watson would get quite so emotional if it was strictly about the fans.   Hopefully I am wrong because if Watson is still not 100% physically, he may well never be.   But he looked good against Chicago so there's hope.  Maybe playing Watson with the 3rd team was not a great idea and that could explain things too.

Time will tell.   I still foresee Watson being named the starter because he's a better QB than Shedeur Sanders and if healthy, Watson has the best chance to lead the Browns down the road of success this season

Preseason Game 1 vs Bears: Deshaun Watson's Back !

Clearly the NFL Preseason does not reflect the difficulty of winning in the NFL in the regular season however there are takeaways from the preseason thus far that are impossible to ignore:

- Since the beginning of camp, Deshaun Watson, for the first time as a Cleveland Brown, is completely relaxed and comfortable.   This is obvious in his interactions with the press & his body language.   Why?  I believe it's simple.   For the first time, he has a Head Coach in Todd Monken, who is allowing him to play free.  I think even Watson bought into the bullshit that Kevin Stefanski was selling him back in the beginning about running his Ivy League offense.   The irony is that Stefanski was successful in transforming Watson into a journeyman QB.   Saturday for the first time in nearly 5 years we saw a confident Deshaun Watson.  The pass to KC Concepcion on the play before the Concepcion Touchdown, was pure Watson.   Concepcion had single coverage on the right side of the field.  Watson threw a rocket for a 15 yard gain into the red zone.  Next play was a TD by Concepcion.

- It's simple.   The problem was not signing Deshaun Watson.   Asking a Ferrari in Watson to run Kevin Stefanski's Volkswagen offense was the "big swing and miss".   

- On defense, it is impossible to draw many conclusions because most key defenders on the Browns did not play but one conclusion is possible.  I am very concerned about the Browns lack of depth on D.   It's clear that this season the Browns are going to try to mimic what Seattle implemented on defense last season.   Lots and lots of blitzing on 2nd and 10 or more and 3rd and 10 or more.  Lots of disguising who is going to blitz and a lot of blitzing by defensive backs.    The Browns did not show any of that yesterday of course, but what I did see is that our second and third teamers on defense aren't very good.  Let's hope we stay healthy but the 17 game NFL season is going to have moments in which your backups have to play and those are going to be moments where Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson will eat us alive.

Bottom line - the days of not scoring 20 points a game are behind us.  Deshaun is back!   But the days of not giving up more than 20 points a game are probably behind us too.  

2026 is going to be a wild ride, but we are going to compete and we are going to win. 

Andrew Berry's Annual QB Hype Derby

It has become an odd pre season tradition in Cleveland for the Browns to go into Training Camp with 4 Quarterbacks and attempt to hype one or more of those QB's with the aspiration of trading one for a draft pick during the cut down to 53 man rosters.

Twice now they've tried and failed to move Tyler Huntley for one of those cherished 6th rounders.   To add insult to injury, both times NFL GM's called their bluff, the Browns cut Huntley and surprise, he signed with division rival Baltimore who undoubtedly downloaded Huntley's knowledge of the Browns playbook.

This season it feels to me like the Browns are playing the same game again.  It has been obvious for weeks that Deshaun Watson will be the starting QB this season.   Even Todd Monken seemed to confirm that but suddenly the narrative changed.  It's a battle between Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson, ok yeah right... and now even Dillon Gabriel has earned more reps thanks to his “good work”.

Don't get me wrong, I like Shedeur.  I see Brian Sipe when I watch Shedeur.  Off the charts charisma and leadership and a gamer's mentality.  The young man knows how to compete.   But much like Brian Sipe, Shedeur needs seasoning, the kind that comes from sitting, practicing and learning.   Brian Sipe basically sat for 3 full seasons from 1972 to 1973 on the taxi squad and 1974 as a backup before he started to flash anything near the brilliance he eventually displayed starting with a few flashes in 1975 and consistent good play until he peaked as NFL MVP in 1980.

The Browns probably don't have the time or desire to invest those years into Shedeur and they probably see his best case scenario as a starter but not a franchise QB.  

So build him up and move him now for one of those glorious 6th round draft picks.  As a Back up plan maybe they move Dillon Gabriel.  But honestly, I don’t think even Kevin Stefanski would give up a sixth rounder for him.  The final outcome will probably be cutting Gabriel because I for one, don't believe any NFL GM buys into the charade.

   

Analytics Applied: Mike Tomlin

I was reading an article this week about Mike Tomlin and inevitably anyone who writes about Tomlin feels the need to point out that his Steeler's teams have not done well in the playoffs in the recent past. 

A few obvious observations about Tomlin came to my mind (obvious to me at least), the primary observation is that analytics can be used to context Tomlin's career so let's have at it.  He provided 19 years of data.

- An average NFL Coach should win one Superbowl every 32 years.   Tomlin won one Super Bowl in 19 years.  GRADE:  Above average

- An average NFL Coach should play in one Superbowl every 16 years.  Tomlin played in one Super Bowl every 8.5 years.  GRADE:  Above average

- An average NFL Coach would win half the games he coaches.  Tomlin's record was 193-114-2 which equates to Tomlin winning 62.4% of the games he coached.   GRADE:  Well above average

- An average NFL Coach will have some seasons where he loses more games than he wins.  Tomlin in 19 seasons NEVER lost more games than he won.  Even Bill Belichick or Paul Brown cannot make that claim.   GRADE:   Extraordinary given his 19 seasons as a head coach.

What do the analytics tell us?  They tell us that Mike Tomlin was and is an exceptional NFL Head Coach.

If the Steelers lack of success in the playoffs indicates anything it is that they needed to raise the bar on their evaluation of talent.  I cannot be sure how deeply Tomlin was involved in evaluating talent, but the data sure does indicate that he got far more from the athletes on his team that other NFL coaches did.

When Ben Roethlisberger retired it's not on Tomlin for not having a QB teed up to move the team forward and don't expect the Steelers results to get any better in 2026 now that Tomlin is gone.  If anything it's far more likely the Steelers put up a losing season 

Nailed it!!

All I got wrong was the uniform

GRADES

Andrew Berry:  A+

Jimmy Haslam:  A+

Myles:  Gets his shot at a Super Bowl:  A+

 

Myles - Connecting the Dots

My last Brown BLog post dealt with the obvious:  Deshaun Watson is going to be the Cleveland Browns QB in 2026 and I believe it very likely he will both play well and the Browns will have a surprisingly successful 2026 season.  

What my post did not address is yet another obvious fact.  Under no circumstances will Deshaun Watson be a member of the Cleveland Browns in 2027.   For starters, even if the Browns want Watson to return, he will not.   The cheering by Browns fans in the aftermath of his 2024 injury locked that outcome in but Watson would also be 31 years old, he may well be the 2026 Comeback Player of the Year but considering the history of injuries and the volume of potential franchise QB's coming into the 2027 draft, I think the Browns will be ready to move on too.

So where does that leave the Browns today?

It leaves the Browns with an urgent need to accumulate draft capital to position themselves to move up to the top of the 2027 draft.

How can they do that?   Only one way:  Trade Myles Garrett, soon.

Yes Myles Garrett is a future Hall of Famer and he most certainly is the best player in today's NFL however the Seattle Seahawks with their innovative defensive blitzing schemes, proved last season that you can win in the NFL with a defensive line that is good but you don't necessarily need one dominant pass rusher.   That said, Myles Garrett transforms a defense for one simple reason.   His presence means your defense is playing with 10 defenders against 9 offensive opponents because it takes double teams to even have a hope of stopping Myles Garrett.   Some team that is close to winning it all will pay a big premium to get Myles Garrett.

Now is the time.  Garrett is reigning NFL Defensive Player of the year, he's 30 years old and at the peak of his game but the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is Arch Manning and in the NFL, a franchise QB is a must if you aspire to consistent winning and to Super Bowls

Let's get real about Deshaun Watson

Maybe it is only obvious to me, but Deshaun Watson is going to be the Browns starting QB this season and well he should be.  

Let's start this topic by looking at a few important points

- As bad as the perception is of the Deshaun Watson project, Watson is 9-10 as Browns QB.  He gives us the best chance to have a good season in a year in which the strength of schedule is weak.

- I will never understand how fans could boo Watson when he was hurt.  I wrote this the day after it happened.  Watson is a warrior and unfortunately too many Browns fans disrespected him in a terrible moment.   We should support our QB.  Pittsburgh fans forgave Ben Rothlisberger for alleged acts FAR worse than anything Watson was ever accused of.  Grow up folks!

- The play that ruined Watson's right shoulder was a designed run between the tackles called by Kevin Stefanski in a game vs Tennessee.  On that play, Donovan Peoples-Jones decided to take the play off instead of blocking his man Tennessee safety #37 Amani Hooker.  Peoples-Jones was traded a few weeks later which was no coincidence but Kevin Stefanski's play call to run his $230M QB between the tackles has to be one of the worst play calling decisions in NFL history

Watch the play that ruined Deshaun Watson for 2 years  click right here to go to the play 

Watson kept playing that day, but mark my words, THAT was the play that tore Watson's shoulder up and it is 100% on Kevin Stefanski and #11 DPJ

All of the above adds up to one thing in my mind.  Watson was basically a .500 QB playing hurt and playing with a playcaller who consistently called plays that Watson was not suited to.   Todd Monken won't repeat those mistakes.

Watson is clearly 100% now and he's going to put up a good season under Todd Monken.

What Jimmy Haslam Wants

 

I have something in common with Browns owner Jimmy Haslam.

What might that be?   I'm getting old and when you get old you start thinking about things like legacy, and unfortunately but realistically, you do start to consider your mortality.  When I think about Jimmy Haslam in this sense, I feel a sort of odd kinship.   And I think I know what his aspirations and plans are for the Cleveland Browns.

In 2029 the Browns are going to have a new dome.   As a native Clevelander who loves Ohio Football, my first knee jerk reaction to the Brook Park dome was negative but the more I thought about it and more I saw, I changed my mind.   Why?  Brian Sipe and Ozzie Newsome.   Yes, in my opinion, the 1980 Browns win the Super Bowl in 1980 had the playoff taken place in a dome.   Jimmy Haslam doesn't own a time machine so we can't win in 1980 but I think my point is the NFL is a QB driven league and our next Brian Sipe or Bernie Kosar level QB needs a field he can win on.

Which brings me to Jimmy Haslam and getting old.   Here is the way I think about my life.  I hope I have 20 good years left, I know I don't have 30 good years left and I think at the least I have 10 good years left.

All of the above stated, I think Jimmy Haslam knows that the surest bet on a QB that exists in college football today is Arch Manning.  As an old guy I can vouch for that.  I have a friend who lettered at Ole Miss and was Archie Manning's teammate.   My personal opinion is that Archie Manning was one of the greatest QB's to ever play the game.   But there is also Peyton and Eli, both of whom I've watched in person.   Both of whom won two Super Bowls a piece.

Arch is a no brainer.

So my prediction is this.   Jimmy Haslam leads his organization to do whatever it takes to get that #1 pick in 2027 and grab Arch Manning who will be in his third pro season when the new dome opens up and the next 10 years of Cleveland Browns football, should Arch be our QB, will be glorious!

Let's hope it happens.