NFL Draft Insights - NFL Draft Pundits are full of shit

NFL fans are in love with the NFL Draft and there are literally dozens of pundits who make a living or are trying to make a living analyzing the crop of athletes who are draft eligible every season.   

So let me start with my only NFL Draft Prediction:   There are zero NFL Draft pundits out there who possess more than a few true insights into the talent in the upcoming NFL Draft.   Nor do fans opinions carry any value.   The only persons on this planet whose conclusions matter are NFL Scouts and even they have a 50% batting average at best but considering the complexity of the task, 50% is extraordinary.   

The bottom line:  Draft pundits are full of shit and I will explain why in the blog.  Read on...

In a quotation that could have easily come from Yogi Berra, Nobel Prize winning Physicist Neils Bohr once said "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future"

Truer words have never been spoken.   Let's use this insight to analyze the complexity of predicting which NCAA athletes might succeed in the National Football League.   

Fun facts about football players:

• There are over 11,000 athletes who dress for a Division I NCAA College Football Team in a given season
• There are less than 2,000 athletes on NFL rosters, many of them are multi year veterans.  
• In a typical season, a few hundred rookies make a regular season NFL roster or practice squad.
• There are thousands more athletes playing college football in Division II, Division III, NAIA and JUCO.
• Of the thousands of NCAA Division I athletes who are eligible to be drafted in a given season, only about 300 athletes get invited every year to the NFL Scouting Combine.
• Less than 2% of Division I NCAA football players will take so much as a single snap in an NFL regular season game.

So the task of predicting who at the college level will succeed in the NFL comes down to predicting which athletes are in top 2%.

Let's compare choosing NFL players to a task of similar complexity that we might all relate to: Academics.  

Baldwin Wallace University, which ironically sits in the shadow of the Cleveland Browns Headquarters, has about 11,000 students, a number on par with the number of Division I football players.   How difficult would it be to predict which incoming Freshmen at Baldwin Wallace are going to be end up graduating and in the top 2% of their college class? 

Pretty damn hard.   

We all know that SAT or ACT scores might help us filter out 80% of the candidates.  But can you look at an SAT score and predict desire, discipline and toughness?  

Of course not.   And that my friends is why Draft Pundits are full of shit. The vast majority of NFL Draft pundits are watching film. Some pundits have contacts that they can inquire with about factors like discipline and character but no one pundit has the time to cover every candidate at that level of depth. Most NFL teams employ dozens of scouts.  That’s the level of scale required. 

 Are there extraordinary athletes who are so good that watching film is enough to predict their success?  Of course, there are a dozen or so of those every year but consider that most often success in the NFL comes down to far more factors that what an athlete puts on film:

Facts:

• No single draft pundit is speaking to all these athletes.   
• No one draft pundit is talking to all their coaches, friends and family. 

To determine the top 2% of any future performance is extraordinarily complex.  To have any chance of accuracy of predicting a potential NFL players success above an accuracy rate of 10% you need to measure far more than film, 40 yard dash times and bench presses.   You need to understand desire, discipline, toughness, and many other factors.  

Only NFL teams staffed with dozens of NFL Scouts have that comprehensive a view and I do believe that there are NFL teams that are good at scouting college players, some are great at scouting potential NFL players and some are even terrible.  Those NFL teams like the Browns who have invested in data and are good at eliminating bias from their process are the ones really hitting home runs, though a wise person might recommend to the Browns they start holding onto their first round picks... In spite of trading many first rounders, the Browns still hit the jackpot in later rounds these last few years with home runs like Dawand Jones and Martin Emerson.   That's no accident folks.

So I don't want to diminish how fun the NFL Draft is but when you pay your hard earned dollar to read a pundit's Draft Guide, just remember, that pundit is full of shit. 

Enjoy the 2024 NFL Draft! 

First Kick Return Touchdown in XFL History

Critical elements of success in the new NFL kickoff 

• Ball placement by the kicker away from the middle of the field
• Return team getting their read on the kick and setting up blocking
• Changing the direction of the return by reverse

The return team does this all right on this kickoff from the XFL, the kicking team does not.

New Kickoff Rule: Roster Impact

If you watch video from the XFL of their kickoffs it is clear that the talents needed on both a kickoff and kickoff return team are going to change significantly.

A few bullet point thoughts:

• The new kickoff return resembles an offensive play.
• for example breaking down a standard screen pass:
• on a screen, after reading pass, linebackers drop into coverage and are about 10 yards back when the pass is thrown to the flat
• defensive backs have dropped back at least 15 to 20 yards
• at the point the ball is caught, what we as fans will see is not too far off from the start of a kickoff. Defenders 10 yards off the line of scrimmage looking to tackle an offensive ball carrier with blocking in front of him. 

The new kickoff requires many of the skills required to defend a screen.  Speed is not as critical as the ability to get off blocks

•     result:  More linebackers will be used on kickoffs, fewer DB's

• The kickoff return team needs to be good at open field blocking.  I can envision starting offensive linemen playing a lot on kick return.   Think about Wyatt Teller blocking on a kick return.  Pancake heaven! 

And what about the kicker?  You will need your kicker to be able to place the ball between the goal line and 20.  Accurate ball placement to one side will also be super important.  Can every placekicker whose lifetime of training is tailored to kicking straight and true do that? 

Conclusion:  Rosters might carry an extra linebacker that in the past carried an extra D Lineman.  Who knows, some teams may even carry two kickers because there are going to be an average of 6 extra plays per game that count.   Why?   Because 80% of kickoffs resulted in touchbacks last season.   Under the new rule at most it's anticipated over 80% of kickoffs will result in a return.   That's 6 extra plays per game.   Significant enough to change a game or two every season.   That is bound to touch roster building 

The NFL's New Kickoff Rule

The most significant change to the NFL rule book in a very long time was approved last week by NFL owners.  It's my view that the new rule is a major improvement, more exciting to watch and comes with a very important benefit:   It is safer for the players.  

A good starting point to understand the concept is that if you paused past NFL Kickoffs at the point that the coverage team is at the 40 yard line, it would look pretty much the same as the below snip with the MAJOR difference that in the old way of kicking off the coverage team would be at full speed while in the new rule, nobody on the field can budge until the ball is fielded by a returner. 

Let's take a look at the basics of the new NFL kickoff rule:

- The coverage team lines up at the other team's 40 yard line, 25 yards "ahead" of the ball, which will continue to be kicked off from the 35 yard line.  

- 9 members of the return team will be lined up between 5 and 10 yards away.

- 2 returners must line up in the landing zone, which is between the goal line and the 20 yard line.

- Nobody except the kicker and returners can move until the ball is touched or touches the ground. 

.

- If the ball is kicked into the endzone or out of the endzone for a touchback, the ball will be placed on the 30 yard line instead of the 25.

- if the kickoff is short of the 20 yard line or out of bounds, the returning team gets the ball at the 40 yard line.

- Any kick that hits the "landing zone" (between the goal line and the 20 yard line) "must be returned"

- if a kick hits the ground in the landing zone and bounces into the end zone, it can be returned or downed.  if the returning team downs a kick in the end zone  that touched the landing zone, it only gets the ball at the 20 yard line.

This is all modeled largely (but not exactly, the NFL version has tweaks) on the kickoff that has been used by the XFL and here is a video example.

This change to the NFL rule book will have many impacts, from roster decisions to the talents required of a kicker, to special teams coaching and strategy.  Furthermore, on-side kicks are no longer allowed except in the 4th quarter and if an on side kick is attempted, it will need to be revealed by the kicking team and of course, in that case, the teams will line up differently for the on side kick.

The Brown BLog plan to dive into all of the many nuances of the new kickoff rule over the coming weeks.

Stay tuned! 

Johnny Football vs Brian Hoyer

Johnny Manziel recently stated on Shannon Sharpe's podcast that the Browns QB room was not a home for him.  The implication was that Hoyer was not a supportive teammate. 

Let me state first, football is a painful game and many athletes resort to the use of medication, at all levels of football.  I have empathy for all those athletes, including Johnny Manziel.  The use of medication to manage pain often devolves into addiction.

Surely the story of Johnny Manziel is not quite that simple, but only those who know him might understand the battles he has faced.

That said, it is a well known fact that Manziel during his first season with the Browns dedicated literally zero effort to improve his game and often showed up late and hung over for practice.   Frankly, I would expect Brian Hoyer to lose patience with any teammate who gave less than his best, not to mention a teammate that admits to never watching film.  

The Brown BLog Predicts: Super Bowl 58

Every prediction of Super Bowl 58 comes down to how you think about Patrick Mahomes.  It's never a great idea to bet against Number 15.   Mahomes is the $60 million dollar man.   The key for the 49ers will be can their $61,000,000 defensive line put Mahomes on the ground.  Pressure alone is not sufficient against Mahomes,  Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead need to get Patrick Mahomes on the ground.   

One easy to ignore but crucial bit of infomation is that the Chiefs have announced that their Pro Bowl Left Guard Joe Thuney will NOT play.   He's out.  That is no small loss and it tips it for me.   

To win this Super Bowl the 49ers must pressure Mahomes and the Niners have the talent on their defensive line to make that happen.  The loss of Joe Thuney will inevitably hurt the Chiefs protection schemes and the Niners should pressure Mahomes while not needing to blitz as much.

I see the Niners sacking Mahomes at least 5 times and Kyle Shanahan finally getting that Super Bowl monkey off his back.

The Brown BLog Predicts

San Francisco 49ers        31

Kansas City Chiefs         20

Brown BLog Predicts: Conference Championships

One more weekend of football to determine who competes for the Super Bowl Championship.   

Lions vs 49ers

The Lions are on the road which is the only factor that gives me pause but the bottom line here is that I believe Detroit are the better team in every phase of the game and moreover, the Lions also have an emotional edge.   In the playoffs, the team that plays without fear has an advantage and Detroit's Head Coach Dan Campbell has his side ready to go every week. 

Look for the Lions to play well and just as importantly, to play with energy and focus.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Lions 34    49ers    24

Chiefs vs Ravens

Picking against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs is a formula for failure but I have good reason:  Lamar Jackson.   If ever we have witnessed an athlete with the Eye of the Tiger, right now it's Lamar Jackson who is burning to prove he is a Super Bowl QB.   The Ravens are a deep and balanced team, but to get to the Super Bowl and beat #15, a team must have great QB play and today look for Lamar to leave every ounze of his talent on the field and look for the Ravens to get past the Chiefs in a thriller.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Ravens 24    Chiefs  21

Brown BLog Predicts: NFL Playoff Predictions - Divisional Round

 Another extremely cold weekend presents an amazing group of football games.   The Brown BLog had a solid 4-2 record predicting Wild Card Round outcomes.   Here's our stab at this weekend's slate of games.

Texans at Ravens

The Texans and CJ Stroud are for real however the Ravens are simply too much for the Texans at this stage of their development.  

Brown BLog Predicts:        Ravens 24    Texans 13

Chiefs at Bills

Toughest prediction of all the weekend games has to be this game.   The Bills are at home and have been playing extremely well.  The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes (and Taylor Swift).  Emotionally speaking the Bills have years of baggage to overcome, although Sean McDermott's motivational tactics certainly are world class.   Can the Bills learn from the motivational speeches of Sean McDermott and unite their efforts to the same level of the September 11 terrorists or will the Chiefs continue their pattern of excellence when the pressure is on.   Honestly I don't know but my gut says "don't bet against Patrick and Taylor"

Brown BLog Predicts:        Chiefs     31    Bills    28

Buccaneers at Lions

I want Baker Mayfield to lead his team to victory so badly that I will be rooting for him to lead his team to win in spite of my prediction that the Lions are going to romp in this game.   I believe in what Detroit are doing in every part of their organization and it's going to continue to pay dividends this Sunday.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Lions 31    Buccaneers    17

Packers at 49ers

The Red Hot Packers are led by their emerging franchise QB Jordan Love and frankly I don't believe in Brock Purdy.   My upset special this week is the Pack defeating the Niners on the road in a thriller.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Packers 28    Niners 27

Brown BLog: NFL Playoff Predictions - Wild Card Round

 A fun slate of games are teed up for this frigid weekend and the Brown BLog is ready to predict them all.

Browns at Texans

CJ Stroud has been playing like a polished veteran all season while the Browns defense is the NFL's best all season long.   The Browns are deeper and my bet is CJ Stroud finally makes a few rookie errors with his first taste of NFL Playoff football.

Brown BLog Predicts:   Browns 30    Texans 20

Dolphins at Chiefs

I like Patrick Mahomes and Taylor Swift to lift the Chiefs over the banged up, gimmick dependent Dolphins..

Brown BLog Predicts:      Chiefs 27     Dolphins 24

Steelers at Bills

Buffalo are playing at their best at the perfect time while the Steelers are also hot however they are missing TJ Watt.   It all points to a solid win for the Bills

Brown BLog Predicts:         Bills 23    Steelers 13

Packers at Cowboys

Jordan Love had an Aaron Rodgers like game to get the Pack into the playoffs however on the road in Dallas against the deep and hungry Cowboys is too much to ask.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Cowboys  31    Packers 17

Rams at Lions

Everyone is in love with Sean McVay and his play calling.   I prefer Dan Campbell's leadership to light a new path for the Lions.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Lions 38        Rams 28

Eagles at Buccaneers 

The Eagles are in the midst of a late season collapse that most pundits believe they will put behind them against the Buccaneers.    It is rare that the favorites win every game in a given NFL playoff round and I see Baker Mayfield rising up, having a good game and helping lead his team to an upset Monday evening against the Eagles

Brown BLog Predicts:        Buccaneers  23   Eagles 21

Brown BLog Predicts: Get Ready!

The toughest game of the season to predict is today vs the Bengals because neither team have much to play for.   The Browns are getting ready for the post season and the Bengals are getting ready for the off season.  

The Bengals however have Ja'Marr Chase who is "chasing" several season records.  I listen the the Bengals Booth Podcast  which is excellent and they have often interviewed Ja'Marr Chase and one thing that comes through is he is extremely competitive and goal oriented.  With Chase on the field against many Browns backups, and the Browns fielding a journeyman QB who was on the Arizona practice squad two weeks ago, I see this game clearly going to the Bengals.

I've predicted the Browns to lose more than I have predicted them to win this year, mostly because 24 years of losing has me extremely slow to buy into this team.  Well, I am bought in now to the Browns. Today's prediction of a loss has nothing to do lost faith, I simply believe without Myles Garrett the Browns D is a different defense, they will be playing 11 vs 11 instead of 10 vs 9 today.  Add in Ja'Marr "chasing" his records and a backup to the backup to the backup to the backup QB on the field today for Cleveland and it is hard to imagine a win on the road.

Brown BLog Predicts

Bengals 27

Browns  16

The Brown BLog are 8-8 season to date

Brown BLog Predicts: Jets

The Jets led by Trevor Siemian are not going to beat a red hot Browns team looking to clinch a playoff spot 

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns 27

Jets 13

The Brown BLog are 7-8 season to date

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 14 vs Texans

In spite of turning the ball over more than their opponents the majority of their games this season, the Browns are winning.   Why?  Because their defense has been fantastic.  

A few statistics tell the tale:

- The Browns have run 1001 offensive plays this season while their opponents have run 807.    It's simple, the more plays you run the more chances you have to score.   The Browns have run 194 more offensive plays than their opponents.  A touchdown is scored 3.6% of offensive plays in the NFL so by running 194 more plays, the Browns have negated their -7 turnover ratio.

- The Browns possess the ball an average of 33:05 minutes per game while opponents average 26:54

So what's going to happen in Houston?   Hard game to predict but one thing is clear, the Browns have to continue to run more offensive plays than their opponent to continue to win.

The Texans are excellent at home and the Browns are not very good on the road.   The Texans have a +8 turnover ratio, the Browns are -7.  Both teams have serious injuries they are battling, the Texans won't have CJ Stroud, Brian Cashman and Will Anderson.  The list of injured Browns is too long to detail but lately Joe Flacco is doing a great job of making the huge loss of Deshaun Watson less painful and the Browns depth in their defensive backfield continues to pay dividends.

One injury that pretty much everyone is blind to is Myles Garrett who injured his shoulder against the Broncos so badly that he could not so much as put his shirt on without help after the game.  Since then, if you watch closely, Garrett has not been able to use his left arm the same way.

Suddenly Garrett is getting held more.   

 - Why?   Before he hurt his left shoulder Garrett was better able to utilize his left arm to fight off the holding of opposing tackles.

Garrett is not getting many tackles

   - Why?   Imagine tackling a professional football player if your left arm is at 20% of it's full function.  

Garrett is not getting sacks

  - Why?  See above

So why is Garrett even playing?   It's simple, even with Garrett playing with his left arm at 20% or less of it's full function, Garrett's speed is disruptive, it forces opponents to double team him and football is an easier game when your opponent must double team one of your defenders.   10 vs 9 is easier than 11 vs 11, get it?

I ask myself why all of the sudden are the Browns coaches talking up Garrett in press conferences every day?   I think in part it is in the hopes that opposing coaches decide to continue doubling Garrett in spite of stats and film that show Garrett is limited by injuries.

This should be a close game but look for the Texans to limit Garrett and double team him less.  Laremy Tunsil should be able to handle Garrett one on one and the Browns will probably move Garrett to the left side where he can use his right arm to fend off holds.  Garrett will draw more attention from Houston on the left side of Cleveland's D but moving Garrett will allow Tunsil to handle an easier foe on the other side.

Case Keenum will be careful and focus on short gains every play, the Texans will highlight Devin Singletary both running and catching short passes and bust a few plays which will be enough at home for them to win this one. 

The Brown BLog Predicts

Texans             17

Browns            13

The Brown BLog are 7-7 season to date

The Brown BLog Predicts: Overcoming obstacles

The Browns this season have endured injuries beyond any sense of reason.   The entire NFL in fact has been a bloodbath of serious injuries all season long, but the Browns have had more than their share, far more.

Yet the team keeps on winning.  At some point, even the most skeptical person has to step back and tip their hat to Kevin Stefanski.   His ability to keep the team on track must be acknowledged.

The Bears are playing well and Justin Fields is the style of QB who has given the Browns trouble this season.   He can run and he can throw deep. 

Furthermore, the Browns have suffered three more major injuries this week with Ogbo, Hurst and Grant Delpit being lost.   The Browns however still have enough talent and motivation to keep overcoming these immense obstacles.

Should the Browns win the Bears game it increases their already strong odds of grabbing a playoff spot.  With Joe Flacco playing well and a squad of motivated, united athletes working a solid gameplan at home, the Browns should pull this one off.

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns             24

Bears                17

The Brown BLog are 6-7 season to date.