BL Predicts: Week 10 vs Texans

Concern is the operative word for today's match up vs the Texans.   While part of the caution is due to still not being able to believe the Browns are for real after so many years of losing, part of the nervousness about today's game is simply sound analysis of the facts:

- The Browns have been severely damaged by injuries.   Now Phil Taylor is gone for the season.  He joins Alex Mack, Jordan Cameron, Johnson Bademosi, John Hughes, Armonty Bryant and the suspended Josh Gordon.  It's a tribute to the coaching of the Browns that they continue to win.  I've also noticed center Nick McDonald limping severely late against Cincinnati.

- The Texans have lost 5 games this year but each time they've lost it's been a battle.  Today against the Browns the Texans have top draft pick Jadeveon Clowney coming back.   

- Several of the Browns opponents have successfully schemed their defense to stop the Browns running game but no opponent has really found a way to limit Brian Hoyer on play action naked role outs.   However the Texans have JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney and let's imagine "what if" the Texans guess correctly a few times that Hoyer will pass off play action.  Hoyer would get crushed.

There are also some points of major concern for Houston:

- They're on the road vs Cleveland and we all know the home team wins 58% in the NFL.

- The Texans will miss Arian Foster.

- Most importantly, the Texans will start a QB who will play for the first time in an NFL game.   Ryan Mallett is not a rookie however.  He is a third year vet who's had plenty of time to get ready for his NFL debut and he's had a lot of time while with the Pats to study Mike Pettine's defense. 

Mallett starting his first game is a concern for Houston but it's also a major concern for Cleveland.  We don't have game film on this guy.  Cleveland knows how important this is.  For example, early in his miserable career, Brandon Weeden had a few decent games but once there was plenty of film for teams to study, it became clear that Weeden could be easily confused and he buckled under pressure.   Once NFL teams figured this out, Weeden never won another NFL game.  Look for Cleveland to make every effort to put Mallet under pressure but he may well be prepared for this.  

So how will the Browns play today vs Houston?:

This is going to be a very close game.  Coach Pettine's decision to keep running the ball eats valuable time off the clock which assures close games and Brian Hoyer has made wise decisions when passing.

Ryan Mallett starts in the NFL for the first time and the Browns will likely blitz him a lot.  Houston knows this and may well be ready with quick passes and deception. 

There's so much riding on this game for Cleveland.  If they arrive to 7-3 their odds of making the playoffs go through the roof.  Too good to be true?   We are jaded, aren't we fellow Browns fans.

I think the Browns are too banged up and Ryan Mallett will be able to establish a rhythm that goes against what the Browns are planning for.  I am also very worried that Brian Hoyer will be injured as the Texans plan to attack him on likely play actions.   We may very well see Johnny Football today due to Hoyer getting banged up and if we do, he won't play as well as Hoyer.     

BL Predicts:

Texans    24

Browns   20

The BL are 4-5 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.