When I think about predicting the outcome of a given game, I always start with the thought, what if these two teams played 10 games? If the Browns played the Rams in Los Angeles ten times today I do believe the Rams would win 6 or 7 times. So as Lloyd Christmas might say, "you are telling me there is a chance!". Indeed, if the Browns defense plays well which is something they've done all season, the Browns could win today if Kevin Stefanski is willing to "win ugly". What is winning ugly? It is something Bill Parcells and Marty Schottenheimer knew how to do. You can tilt the odds in your favor in a game where you are apparently likely to lose, if you use the clock and leverage your teams strengths. The Browns are in trouble due to injuries on offense, but they have a great D. Run the damn clock and you move the odds of winning in your favor by limiting your opponents time of possession.
The problem with that is that Paul DePodesta and Kevin Stefanski just hate winning ugly. Don't get me wrong, Kevin Stefanski does something that most Browns Head Coaches during the rather ugly and sleezy Haslam era did not. Stefanski has his team ready to compete almost every Sunday but he just cannot resist trying to be cute once or twice in any given game.
As Jim Schwartz was quoted this week when asked about analytics, "football is not played in a vacuum". So why is it that in a cold weather game, Kevin Stefanski called a double reverse with a QB who had just entered the game, PJ Walker, and another player, Pierre Strong, who also had barely a snap on offense? Why? Because our 80's corner bar Archie Bunker drunk, Paul DePodesta must have told him that the Broncos would never imagine that the Browns would be stupid enough to run a double reverse with two cold players (literally and figuratively). It always works after all! Throw a long pass with your backup QB on 4th and 1?? Sure fire Browns Touchdown! Hooray!
Instead, the Broncos had done their homework. They knew damn well that the Browns are apt to do stupid things so their defenders understood to be patient against the Browns offense and make their reads. Result? There were not one but two Broncos ready to crush Pierre Strong on the double reserve, which Mr. Strong obviously noted, because he fumbled the pitch to him.
End of game.
The scenario in which the Browns win today involves running the ball 60% or more and passing with veteran Joe Flacco very conservatively.
The Browns won't do that because analytics says there is no such thing as winning ugly and that if you study the statistics enough, you will discover human beings can indeed be coached to perform like robots.
The Brown BLog predicts
Rams 26
Brown 17
The Brown BLog are 5-6 season to date.
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