A few statistics tell the tale:
- The Browns have run 1001 offensive plays this season while their opponents have run 807. It's simple, the more plays you run the more chances you have to score. The Browns have run 194 more offensive plays than their opponents. A touchdown is scored 3.6% of offensive plays in the NFL so by running 194 more plays, the Browns have negated their -7 turnover ratio.
- The Browns possess the ball an average of 33:05 minutes per game while opponents average 26:54
So what's going to happen in Houston? Hard game to predict but one thing is clear, the Browns have to continue to run more offensive plays than their opponent to continue to win.
The Texans are excellent at home and the Browns are not very good on the road. The Texans have a +8 turnover ratio, the Browns are -7. Both teams have serious injuries they are battling, the Texans won't have CJ Stroud, Brian Cashman and Will Anderson. The list of injured Browns is too long to detail but lately Joe Flacco is doing a great job of making the huge loss of Deshaun Watson less painful and the Browns depth in their defensive backfield continues to pay dividends.
One injury that pretty much everyone is blind to is Myles Garrett who injured his shoulder against the Broncos so badly that he could not so much as put his shirt on without help after the game. Since then, if you watch closely, Garrett has not been able to use his left arm the same way.
Suddenly Garrett is getting held more.
- Why? Before he hurt his left shoulder Garrett was better able to utilize his left arm to fight off the holding of opposing tackles.
Garrett is not getting many tackles
- Why? Imagine tackling a professional football player if your left arm is at 20% of it's full function.
Garrett is not getting sacks
- Why? See above
So why is Garrett even playing? It's simple, even with Garrett playing with his left arm at 20% or less of it's full function, Garrett's speed is disruptive, it forces opponents to double team him and football is an easier game when your opponent must double team one of your defenders. 10 vs 9 is easier than 11 vs 11, get it?
I ask myself why all of the sudden are the Browns coaches talking up Garrett in press conferences every day? I think in part it is in the hopes that opposing coaches decide to continue doubling Garrett in spite of stats and film that show Garrett is limited by injuries.
This should be a close game but look for the Texans to limit Garrett and double team him less. Laremy Tunsil should be able to handle Garrett one on one and the Browns will probably move Garrett to the left side where he can use his right arm to fend off holds. Garrett will draw more attention from Houston on the left side of Cleveland's D but moving Garrett will allow Tunsil to handle an easier foe on the other side.
Case Keenum will be careful and focus on short gains every play, the Texans will highlight Devin Singletary both running and catching short passes and bust a few plays which will be enough at home for them to win this one.
The Brown BLog Predicts
Texans 17
Browns 13
The Brown BLog are 7-7 season to date
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