BL Predicts - Game 12 vs Jacksonville

This week's game is the hardest to predict this season because on paper it seems the Browns should win this home game but a few key factors give me pause.

Some factors to consider this week:

* Browns QB Brandon Weeden is 0-4 as a starter.   His counterpart, Chad Henne, is a slightly below average NFL passer.   Being a bit less than mediocre gives Henne a major advantage compared to the disastrous Brandon Weeden.   Sitting on the bench may indeed have given Weeden a few ideas on what he might do different.  For example, look for Weeden to heavily favor Josh Gordon today.   If Weeden simply flings it in Gordon's direction early and often it would be a major step in the right direction. However, expect Jacksonville to be ready.   If the Jaguars scheme to keep the ball away from Gordon it may foil Weeden's one chance at success by creating a turnover or two.   Chad Henne on the other hand will most certainly play more consistently than Weeden.

* The Browns will be playing Darius Eubacks at one of the ILB positions.   In the preseason, Joe Banner cut a number of veteran players in favor of lesser paid rookie free agents.   Those players released included promising 2nd year linebacker James Michael Johnson, who now makes a living for the 9-2 Kansas City Chiefs.   Another was a solid linebacker, LJ Fort.   The Browns saved cash by cutting more experienced players but they gambled that depth wouldn't be needed at LB at any point during the season.  The NFL season is long and here we are in the stretch run and the lack depth at linebacker is suddenly a potential game deciding issue.   Count on the fact that Jacksonville will isolate receivers against Eubanks and test him.  Eubanks was playing safety at Georgia Southern 12 months ago.  A few key plays should decide Sunday's game and I would be surprised if Eubanks is not on the wrong end of more than one big play.

* The home field should not be ignored but I'm guessing that many frustrated Browns fans are going to sit this game out, thus damping down the home field advantage for Cleveland.

* Weather will be cold and nasty.   Bad weather often affects QB's more than anybody and the fact is that Chad Henne has more experience playing in the cold than our own Brandon Weeden.

* Finally I'm sure that Chud would very much like to impress on his bosses that he can lead the Browns to a win at home against a team that the Browns "should" beat.   Look for Chud to try a few trick plays to surprise the Jags.   Chud's ability to get big plays this season by expert use of the element of surprise helped the Browns beat the Vikings and Bills.  I've got a feeling that Jacksonville will be on the lookout and for the first time this season, the tactic will not work.

Tough call but I see the Browns losing a difficult battle against Jacksonville:

BL Predicts:

Jacksonville    17
Browns           10

The BL are 8-3 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.