BL Predicts: The Super Bowl

The BL took a 6-2 playoff prediction record into the conference championships and blew it by predicting both losers to win.  Hence our record to date for the playoffs rests at 6-4.

Today's championship game promises to both close and fun.   Neither Harbaugh brother is going to have his team anything less than 100% ready to play.

The Ravens have an emotional edge with Ray Lewis playing his last game and furthermore their QB Joe Flacco has been in the zone the entire playoffs raising his performance significantly.

The 49ers have a read option QB in what may be the beginning of a new era of NFL football in which this style offense conquers the game.   On the downside the Niners have a kicking game in disarray which could kill them in a close game.

While some see the read option is a gimmick, I see it as an evolution of the game.  Much like Bill Walsh's west coast offense, Joe Gibb's single back or Bill Cowher's zone blitzes.  Teams that innovate first have historically won Super Bowls.   Colin Kaepernick is wonderful to watch.   Cool as ice, he throws the prettiest spiral I've seen in a long time and he seems to up his game when under pressure.

I'm going with innovation as the difference maker today and furthermore I'm betting that Jim Harbaugh will find a way to outfox his younger brother.    

49ers            34
Ravens         24

BL Predicts: Conference championships

Last week the BL slipped to a 2-2 record after our perfect first week.   I'll say this, if Denver simply knew how to play prevent defense we'd have been 3-1 but I am not complaining.   It was wonderful to watch a John Elway team lose one that they should have won.

This week I believe there is one easy game to predict and one that's quite difficult.

Baltimore          21
New England    31
The Patriots have too much firepower for the Ravens.

Atlanta              30
SF                     28
As a fan, I would love for SF and their young QB Colin Kaepernick to win this game.   But one lesson I've learned predicting games is to remove emotion.   The reason I'd like SF to win is that I believe a running QB is an evolution to the NFL game, not a gimmick.    The passing game has become so important that most defenses are 100% focused on defending the pass downfield.   3-6 men will pin back their ears and rush while the remaining defenders are 100% focused on pass defense.   The read option offense, driven by a QB who can run and pass, is the perfect tactical counter to sophisticated pass defenses and I believe that read option teams are going to win Super Bowls in the next 5 years.   Were SF to win the Super Bowl this year, it would prove the point a bit early, however let's say that this Super Bowl is the last hurrah for traditional QBs.

Atlanta has home field advantage and a more experienced QB.   Furthermore they've had time to put in some special wrinkles for San Fran's young QB.   I underline young because this is a championship game and let's remember that Kaepernick has less than one full season of starting experience.   Mistakes often decide playoff games.   Odds are the Kaepernick is going to make a key error at some point and if he does, Atlanta will win a close one.

BL Predicts - Divisional playoffs

Last week the BL had a perfect week, assisted by the fact that I've had a very similar injury to RGIII and recognized that he was in far worse condition than everybody was letting on.   This week I don't have any extra insights other than the fact that home field advantage is huge in the NFL, in particular during the playoffs.   This week, I'll predict that the home field will be decisive in 3 of the 4 games.

Baltimore     14
Denver         27
The weather is going to be bad and the altitude is always "mile high" which makes it even more challenging for visitors.  These factors together with Peyton Manning's leadership should lead to an easy Denver win.

Green Bay              31
San Francisco         17
The 49ers are seriously banged up.  The home field advantage here won't be enough.

Atlanta     28
Seattle     27
Toughest game to predict.  History shows us that teams who have a history of  losing key games, continue to lose key games.   Furthermore, Seattle is a team on the rise.   But I think Atlanta's talent advantage and home field advantage will help them finally get a W in the playoffs.   It'll be close.

Houston           17
New England    33
New England wins easy at home

BL Predicts - Playoff predictions

Cincinnati   21
Houston      24
Houston's home field advantage just too much to overcome for the Bengals, who will play tough.

Minnesota 17
Green Bay 27
Green Bay will handle Minnesota at Lambeau.

Indianapolis  13
Baltimore 27
Luck will be out of luck in the playoffs on the road

Washington  21
Seattle  33
Toughest game to predict but I thought RGIII was limited because of his knee injury vs Dallas and late in the game, when escaping a sack, I clearly saw Griffin re injure the knee.   How badly the knee is hurt is the decisive factor in this game.   One thing is for sure and that is that Seattle's rookie QB Russell Wilson is 100% and playing at the top of his game.   If RGIII is 100% I'd be predicting the Skins to win but he's not.   Seattle pulls away to win this one.

Weeden's inaccurate rookie year

The BL has decided to rely on statistical facts when it comes to assessing Brandon Weeden.  As they say on Dragnet, "just the facts please."

Weeden was ranked number 29 out of 32 QB's in passer rating during his rookie campaign.  Many pundits are willing to forgive him that ranking because the passer rating system is a confusing formula driven by many metrics.  However when looking deeper into Weeden's stats some troubling trends show up.  First of all, as we pointed out in a previous blog, Weeden was absolutely terrible in the red zone with a 41% completion percent in the red zone.   Go sit in the corner rookie because you flunked that test.

Moving to other metrics where one would think that Weeden's rocket arm would help.  A strong arm is supposed to be Weeden's biggest asset but on passes thrown 20 yards or longer, he has one of the lowest completion percentages in the NFL.  In 2012 Weeden threw 52 passes that were in the air for 20 yards or more but only completed 11 of those passes.   What good is it having a rocket arm if you're inaccurate??

Of major concern is Weeden's drop in accuracy when throwing to the sidelines.   When throwing to the left sideline, Weeden completed only 50% of his throws and when throwing to the right sideline Weeden completed only 53.4%.   Even Ryan Fitzpatrick, universally viewed as an ordinary QB, has better numbers than Weeden when throwing to the sidelines.   Only Andrew Luck drops below Weeden on left sideline passes with a 47% completion rate.    No QB came close to Weeden's high intercept rate on sideline passes.

The sideline pass is a basic staple of a great QB and Weeden struggles here badly.  Particularly troubling is Weeden's interception rate on sideline passes.  It's more proof that Weeden has real issues with his depth perception and his ability to see the play unfold at the velocity of the NFL.   The numbers don't lie -

Weeden passing stats:

Fitzpatrick passing stats:

RGIII passing stats:

Russell Wilson passing stats:

Luck passing stats:

Peyton Manning stats:

Aaron Rodgers stats:

Weeden's future

Yesterday Joe Banner and Jimmy Haslam rendered their decision on Tom Heckert and Pat Shurmur's judgement.  Heckert and Shurmur's biggest decision in 2012 was to bet the Browns future on Brandon Weeden.  While it would be an oversimplification to blame the Browns record exclusively on Weeden's mediocre debut, it's also true that RGIII, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson all had game changing seasons as rookie QBs (it must be particularly galling to the Browns VIP's that Wilson was a third round pick).

Some people still believe that Brandon Weeden can develop into a top tier QB but how likely is it that a new coach will be willing to risk his own future on Weeden?  In today's win now at all costs NFL, the BL says "not very."

Weeden has an arm capable of making long throws that few QB's are capable of .  However during the typical NFL game, passes thrown in the air longer than 20 yards are almost always less than 4 per game so the long pass really only serves to loosen up the short passing game. Where a rifle arm most helps are on sideline throws of 10-20 yards. Unfortunately, Weeden was one of the least accurate passers in the NFL on sideline passes.

Why?  Weeden has a critical flaw, limited field vision and even with a rocket arm, his poor field vision limits his accuracy to well below the median for an NFL QB.   The list of rifle arm QBs who never made it big is a long one.  For Brown's fans, Mike Phipps would be a familiar example.  Vinnie Testaverde would be another.  Testaverde had a long career and often put up great numbers but time and time again he failed under pressure, and he never took a team to the Super Bowl.   Brandon Weeden locks onto his receivers from the snap of the ball and in the second half of the NFL season, defenses started to lock onto Weeden's eyes.  The result was several key interceptions that led directly to losses.   Weeden's 41% completion percentage in the red zone is even further proof that his ability to play at the speed of the NFL is limited.

Historically a QB like Weeden would have been given several years to adapt to the speed of the NFL but given the win now mentality in the league, and given Weeden's age (and Banner's aversion to 30 year old players), I think Weeden's days as a Cleveland Brown starter are numbered.

In Weeden's favor is the fact that this years draft is not loaded with the same level of talent at QB that the 2012 draft was so the new coach may have no choice but to consider Weeden but at the very least
look for the Browns to bring in a new QB to compete with Weeden for playing time.

8AM meeting tomorrow for players

Jason Pinkston tweeted that there will be an 8AM meeting tomorrow for players.  Very likely this will be the first in a day long series of meetings that lead to the press conference announcing that Pat Shurmur and Tom Heckert have been dismissed.

BL Predicts: Week 16 vs Steelers

The Browns are on the road against a bitter rival, playing for a lame duck coach who is 100% certain to be fired next week.  Furthermore, our Browns have been hit by a rash of injuries at defensive back that mean we'll have to watch another afternoon of Buster Skrine getting lit up.   The injuries don't end there however.  Brandon Weeden is almost certainly out and Colt McCoy if he plays has already missed one day of reps with the first team because his shoulder is sore.   Finally, Trent Richardson's ankle injury looked very bad last Sunday.  Luckily it's a severe strain and Richardson wants 1000 yards badly so he may just suck it up and play but as a Browns fan, I'd hope that Richardson is ruled out.  We need him healthy in the off season so he can be ready to step it up a level in 2013.

The only interesting element is that Thad Lewis, our third string QB, may play and he has an interesting skill set including the ability to run the ball.  If Lewis plays he may indeed turn a few third downs that the Browns have failed on all year.   But it won't be enough.  The Steelers D will confuse and generally contain Lewis (or Colt for that matter) and the Browns will surely take it on the chin this Sunday.

BL Predicts:

Steelers       27
Browns       10


The Browns are 9-6 year to date in predicting the outcome of our Browns games.

The problem with Brandon Weeden: Field vision

Brandon Weeden has a cannon, no doubt about it.  His arm is so good that at the college level he could often simply wait until one of his NFL quality wideouts were wide open and that howitzer of his could rocket the ball into their awaiting arms.  In today's NFL a QB cannot survive on arm strength alone, even extraordinary arm strength.   It also takes vision, judgement and accuracy in traffic.  Watch Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers if you want to see an NFL quarterback who regularly threads the needle.

Statistical analysis bear this out.  Compare Weeden to Rodgers and other top QB's passing stats based on field position and it bears out that Weeden doesn't see the field well.   In particular in the red zone, defenses get tight and field vision becomes critical:

BRANDON WEEDEN PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

AARON RODGERS PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

RGIII PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

RYAN TANNEHILL'S PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

ANDREW LUCK PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

RUSSELL WILSON PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

KIRK COUSINS' PASSING BY FIELD POSITION (just for fun):

Brandon Weeden has completed only 41.3% of his passes in the red zone while Aaron Rodgers heads that group at 63.2%.  Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck are both under 50% but still significantly better than Weeden.  Furthermore, Luck has 14 TD passes in the red zone and Tannehill has 8 compared to 5 touchdown tosses in the red zone for Weeden.

In their recent game vs the Redskins, Weeden showed his lack of vision on several key plays, one of which the BL will dissect:  the interception thrown to Redskins LB London Fletcher.

Step 1 - Weeden in the photo below is visibly locked in on Greg Little (bottom left) and decides he will throw to Little.  Redskin's linebacker London Fletcher (#59 near the 30 yard line) is watching Weeden's eyes.  Weeden clearly does not have Fletcher in his field of vision in spite of Fletcher being in the area the ball will go to.

Step 2:  Weeden, still blind to the position of Fletcher, pulls the trigger and starts into his throwing motion.  Fletcher who continues to be 100% focused on Weeden's eyes, starts to react and reposition himself into the line of fire.

Step 3:  Weeden launches the pass and Fletcher, accelerates his adjustment to the ball which is now in the air.

Step 4:  Fletcher moves to the path of the ball and makes the interception.   This critical interception is the last nail in the coffin for the Browns as the Redskins and their backup rookie QB Kirk Cousins, march downfield for another score.

There is more to playing QB than simply having a rifle arm.  A quarterback also needs vision and a sense of the game.  Weeden, who has already failed in one sport as a professional, may have all the physical tools needed, but so far he has shown himself to be incapable of seeing the field in a way that allows him to exercise consistently sound judgement and execute with precision.  In particular in these last few games Weeden has been playing it safe, not making a throw unless a player is wide open.  He'll never be a Super Bowl or even a playoff QB in the NFL until he can make accurate passes in traffic like RGIII and Aaron Rodgers do so well.

I would compare Weeden to Jim Plunkett, a QB with a tremendous arm, who took many years to adjust to the speed of the NFL.   Before he found a team in Oakland whose offense demanded a rocket arm QB, Plunkett struggled for most of his first 8 years in the league, throwing more interceptions than TD's in 7 of his first 8 years.  In his 9th year in the league and second year with the Raiders, Plunkett emerged from his backup role 5 games into the season and went 13-2 as a starter to help Oakland win the Super Bowl.

Weeden may indeed improve his play with more time on the field and experience.  But in todays win now NFL, it's unlikely Weeden will get the 8 years that Jim Plunkett did to adjust to the league.  Even if he did, Weeden would be 38 years old not 33.  Furthermore, the NFL that Jim Plunkett played in was much more focused on the running game.  Plunkett thrived in the Raider offense because Mark Van Eegan and Kenny King carried a large burden for the offense.

Should the Browns bet the future on Brandon Weeden?  There are a ton of questions still to be answered before a reasonable person can decide.  Can Weeden improve and if so, the biggest riddle is how fast can he improve?  One thing is for sure, a QB with a 40% completion percentage in the red zone is not an NFL quality QB.    60% success in the red zone is probably the measure of a Super Bowl QB.  That means that Weeden must take a quantum leap from 40% to 60% to get to the level needed by the Browns.  Statistically speaking, it's unlikely Weeden can make that kind of jump in a short period of time and history also shows that a QB without the natural gift of field vision either never makes it in the NFL or takes an extremely long period of time to learn the game.   Courage and guts may be the one factor that separates QBs who learn to see the field better because the way to learn is to learn to focus 100% downfield and in the process take one helluva beating in the pocket.

Whether to bet on Weeden is the most important call that Joe Banner has to make.  I don't know what he'll decide but I do know this, based on the play of the QBs drafted in the 2012 draft, if the draft were to be done over today, both Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson would be selected before Brandon Weeden.

BL Predicts - Week 15 vs Denver

It's that time of year where anyone who predicts Browns games must shore up their won loss record.  The Browns have likely won their last game of the season. 


Today vs Denver promises to be a very long day for the following reasons:

- Winning in Denver is tough, even for great teams, because of the altitude and it's affect on visiting players who are not used to it.

- Denver and Peyton Manning are on a roll, having won 8 games in a row.

- The Browns organization is finally starting to break at the seams under the pressure of pending job losses for Pat Shurmur and Tom Heckert.   I was really uphappy in particular to read quotes from our 29 year old rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden that effectively hung out Shurmur to dry, stating, albeit indirectly by complimenting the play calling of Washington, that the Browns would be better off if they called plays suited to Weeden's skillset (I must admit that I wondered if Weeden meant that Shurmur should develop plays that are designed to be intercepted...).  I've been giving Weeden a mulligan all year because he's a rookie but when it comes to team unity, a leader must never use the press to drive a personal agenda.   It's one thing to state these issues behind closed doors but it's quite another to do so through the newspapers.  A 29 year old should know better even if he is a rookie. 

Here's hoping Shurmur feeds Weeden a nice goodbye present by using McCoy at the first sign of trouble Sunday.

BL Predicts:

Broncos   31
Browns    17

The BL are 8-6 year to date on the prediction front.

BL Predicts: Game 14 vs Redskins

The Browns exceeded our expectations last week, showing character after giving up a big play to start the game and continuing to fight.  The beat KC handily and kept their playoff hopes alive.  The Browns confidence is growing week to week.  This week they find themselves up against the Washington Redskins, who are also on a winning run.  However the 'Skins will be without their rookie superstar RGIII, whose knee injury will keep him out of the starting lineup.  Instead we'll face Kirk Cousins.

Look for the Browns to keep Cousins off balance and make just enough plays on offense to walk away with the W.

BL Predicts:

Browns      17
Redskins    13

The BL are 8-5 year to date in predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 13 vs KC Chiefs

Football is an emotional game and in game 13 vs the Kansas City Chiefs, the Browns have to be on the guard against a team that may have an emotional advantage.   On paper the Browns should win this game considering that they have the home field advantage and are playing what can only be labelled as one of the NFL's worst teams.

However KC have two coaches and two players in key roles who were rejected by the Browns.   Head Coach Romeo Crennel and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll were fired by the Browns.  Running back Peyton Hillis has been sparring in the newspapers all week with Browns tackle Joe Thomas over Hillis' letting down his Browns teammates during the 2011 season.   Finally, Chiefs QB Brady Quinn is a former 1st round pick who the Browns gave up on in 2010.   Quinn played well last week and it would be sweet vengeance for him to come in and beat Cleveland.

As a team, the Chiefs are dealing with an unprecedented situation.   The tragic murder suicide involving  Jovan Belcher, who was a popular player in the Chiefs.   The emotional scars from the horrible story are still fresh and the tragedy can either unite the Chiefs or drain them of energy.   The power of a united football team is undeniable and if the Chiefs are able to harness such power out of tragedy it can help them overcome many factors, including a lack of talent.

While the Chiefs are in the middle of factors that may unite them, the Browns were in the middle of rumors this week that might confuse or demotivate them.   Words is that Tom Heckert is out as Brown's GM and that he'll be placed by NFL Network announcer Mike Lombardi.    The fact that Joe Banner leaked this information shows a lack of judgement because he has created a major distraction, in particular with many players who Heckert picked to build the Browns.  In particular, Brandon Weeden and Josh Gibson were panned by Lombardi as being bad picks.

Lastly, weather promises to be a factor today.  It will be cold and quite probably rainy.   Brandon Weeden has been tested twice in "Cleveland weather" this year and both times, vs the Chargers and Ravens, he was mediocre.

My prediction is that the Chiefs will be ready to put it all on the line vs the Browns.  They have nothing to lose.  Meanwhile the Browns will show up with too much on their minds today and get off to a bad start that they'll not recover from.

BL Predicts:

Kansas City Chiefs       24
Cleveland Browns        20

The BL are 8-4 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 12 on the road vs the Raiders

The Brown Log has always been inclined to favor the home team when making predictions because it is a fact that in the NFL the home team wins 58% of the time.   Home field advantage is real.   However this week against the Raiders, on paper, the home field advantage is the only factor Oakland would seem to have in their favor.  Carson Palmer is hurt and the Raiders are reeling.   Meanwhile our Browns are coming off a major victory against their biggest rival and, in spite of their record, our Browns have played well all season.

BL Predicts:  Big game for Weeden and the defense and a strong win against the Raiders.

Browns 31
Raiders  14


The BL are 7-4 year to date in predicting the outcome of Browns games.