The problem with Brandon Weeden: Field vision

Brandon Weeden has a cannon, no doubt about it.  His arm is so good that at the college level he could often simply wait until one of his NFL quality wideouts were wide open and that howitzer of his could rocket the ball into their awaiting arms.  In today's NFL a QB cannot survive on arm strength alone, even extraordinary arm strength.   It also takes vision, judgement and accuracy in traffic.  Watch Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers if you want to see an NFL quarterback who regularly threads the needle.

Statistical analysis bear this out.  Compare Weeden to Rodgers and other top QB's passing stats based on field position and it bears out that Weeden doesn't see the field well.   In particular in the red zone, defenses get tight and field vision becomes critical:

BRANDON WEEDEN PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

AARON RODGERS PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

RGIII PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

RYAN TANNEHILL'S PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

ANDREW LUCK PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

RUSSELL WILSON PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

KIRK COUSINS' PASSING BY FIELD POSITION (just for fun):

Brandon Weeden has completed only 41.3% of his passes in the red zone while Aaron Rodgers heads that group at 63.2%.  Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck are both under 50% but still significantly better than Weeden.  Furthermore, Luck has 14 TD passes in the red zone and Tannehill has 8 compared to 5 touchdown tosses in the red zone for Weeden.

In their recent game vs the Redskins, Weeden showed his lack of vision on several key plays, one of which the BL will dissect:  the interception thrown to Redskins LB London Fletcher.

Step 1 - Weeden in the photo below is visibly locked in on Greg Little (bottom left) and decides he will throw to Little.  Redskin's linebacker London Fletcher (#59 near the 30 yard line) is watching Weeden's eyes.  Weeden clearly does not have Fletcher in his field of vision in spite of Fletcher being in the area the ball will go to.

Step 2:  Weeden, still blind to the position of Fletcher, pulls the trigger and starts into his throwing motion.  Fletcher who continues to be 100% focused on Weeden's eyes, starts to react and reposition himself into the line of fire.

Step 3:  Weeden launches the pass and Fletcher, accelerates his adjustment to the ball which is now in the air.

Step 4:  Fletcher moves to the path of the ball and makes the interception.   This critical interception is the last nail in the coffin for the Browns as the Redskins and their backup rookie QB Kirk Cousins, march downfield for another score.

There is more to playing QB than simply having a rifle arm.  A quarterback also needs vision and a sense of the game.  Weeden, who has already failed in one sport as a professional, may have all the physical tools needed, but so far he has shown himself to be incapable of seeing the field in a way that allows him to exercise consistently sound judgement and execute with precision.  In particular in these last few games Weeden has been playing it safe, not making a throw unless a player is wide open.  He'll never be a Super Bowl or even a playoff QB in the NFL until he can make accurate passes in traffic like RGIII and Aaron Rodgers do so well.

I would compare Weeden to Jim Plunkett, a QB with a tremendous arm, who took many years to adjust to the speed of the NFL.   Before he found a team in Oakland whose offense demanded a rocket arm QB, Plunkett struggled for most of his first 8 years in the league, throwing more interceptions than TD's in 7 of his first 8 years.  In his 9th year in the league and second year with the Raiders, Plunkett emerged from his backup role 5 games into the season and went 13-2 as a starter to help Oakland win the Super Bowl.

Weeden may indeed improve his play with more time on the field and experience.  But in todays win now NFL, it's unlikely Weeden will get the 8 years that Jim Plunkett did to adjust to the league.  Even if he did, Weeden would be 38 years old not 33.  Furthermore, the NFL that Jim Plunkett played in was much more focused on the running game.  Plunkett thrived in the Raider offense because Mark Van Eegan and Kenny King carried a large burden for the offense.

Should the Browns bet the future on Brandon Weeden?  There are a ton of questions still to be answered before a reasonable person can decide.  Can Weeden improve and if so, the biggest riddle is how fast can he improve?  One thing is for sure, a QB with a 40% completion percentage in the red zone is not an NFL quality QB.    60% success in the red zone is probably the measure of a Super Bowl QB.  That means that Weeden must take a quantum leap from 40% to 60% to get to the level needed by the Browns.  Statistically speaking, it's unlikely Weeden can make that kind of jump in a short period of time and history also shows that a QB without the natural gift of field vision either never makes it in the NFL or takes an extremely long period of time to learn the game.   Courage and guts may be the one factor that separates QBs who learn to see the field better because the way to learn is to learn to focus 100% downfield and in the process take one helluva beating in the pocket.

Whether to bet on Weeden is the most important call that Joe Banner has to make.  I don't know what he'll decide but I do know this, based on the play of the QBs drafted in the 2012 draft, if the draft were to be done over today, both Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson would be selected before Brandon Weeden.