BL Predicts: Game 14 vs The Bengals

The end of the season is near and many important decisions will be taken by Mike Holmgren based on the performance of the Browns over these last 3 games. Will the Browns come together as a team and perform well or will they ride out the string.

The 2010 campaign has been one of many ups and downs and looking back, after the disaster of 2009, the fact is that the Browns competed all season long in every game. That stated, I think only Mike Holmgren can judge if Coach Mangini will merit another year. If Holmgren fires Mangini, the likely reason is that while the Browns have in fact competed in 2010, it is primarily due to the innovations introduced by Rob Ryan on defense. The Browns defense took Dick Lebeau's zone blitz schemes to the next level, often substituting linebackers for defensive linemen, a strategy that infinitely complicated the opposing quarterbacks reads. Instead of having to account for 4 linebackers, opposing QBs often found themselves having to evaluate the positioning of up to 6 or even 7 linebackers. On 3rd and long the Browns have dared opponents to run, and one only need recall Tom Brady's awful showing against the Browns to realize that Ryan's schemes confused even the best quarterback in the game.

So the question is "does Mangini deserve credit for Rob Ryan's innovation?" My inclination is to say that Mangini does in fact deserve credit for the Browns defensive success in 2010. Everything on a team starts and finishes with the head coach. However only those persons associated with the Browns day to day truly can evaluate Mangini's role in putting this innovative defense on the field every Sunday. This is important because it is very likely that Rob Ryan will be lured away by some NFL team next year to be their head coach so next year Mangini will not have Rob Ryan' support.

Mike Holmgren's decision on whether to retain Mangini will tell us the inside story.

On to the Bengals game. When the Bengals and Browns played in game four earlier this season, the Bengals were still viewed as a one of the better teams in the NFL. The Browns were 0-3 at the time of that game and badly needed a W. The Browns led by Seneca Wallace got the win that Sunday in Cleveland and the Bengals have since stumbled to only 2 wins.

One point I clearly recall from that match up earlier this year is that the Bengals were one of few teams this year to come into the game with a good plan to counter Rob Ryan's innovative defense. At one point in the game for example, Ryan threw his zero down lineman scheme at Carson Palmer, the Bengals immediately went into a no-huddle and drove the ball down near to the goal line over the next few plays. Palmer passed for nearly 400 yards that day.

Pundits are getting wrapped in the fact that the Bengals have only 2 wins this year but a closer look shows that the Bengals have competed in nearly every game this year. Add in the following factors and I think today's outcome becomes clear:

- Bengals are at home.
- Colt will play but he still is not 100%
- Browns morale is down after a demoralizing defeat

I think it all adds up to a clear and solid loss. For the first time this year, we may see a game in which our Browns are soundly defeated


BL Predicts

Browns 17
Bengals 33

The Brown Log are 5-8 is our predictions this season

BL Predicts: Week Seven vs. the Saints

Once again, an easy game to predict as the Browns more or less have every factor possible working against them this Sunday in New Orleans. Despite serious limitations at the wide receiver position, in the defensive backfield and a lack of depth on the defensive line, the team is playing together and the coaches, in particular Rob Ryan, continue to come up with tactics that opponents have trouble with. This week, the best we can hope for is another good showing that comes up just short of the W.


BL Predicts:

New Orleans Saints 23
Cleveland Browns 10

The Brown Log's season record now stands at 3-3

BL Predicts: Week Four vs the Bengals

Predicting NFL games is a mechanical exercise. Each week we consider and add up the following factors:

- the home team wins 57% of the games in the NFL, that's worth about 3 points

- compare the talent of the team's healthy players and their ability to play and execute the game as a team.

- Look for emotional factors that might give advantage to one team or the other.

Week 4 against Cincinnati stacks up as follows

- Browns are at home so they start with 3 points in the bag
- The Bengals are a balanced and talented team, capable of executing well at each position. The Browns have no talent at WR, a weak right side of the offensive line, a good TE, good QB's and average running backs. On D, the Browns appear highly motivated behind the creative leadership of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, albeit the Browns lack depth and talent on the defensive line. On talent let's give the Bengals a 7 point advantage on the Brownies.
- Emotionally, there is a bad sign for Cleveland. This week, Running back Jerome Harrison publicly expressed displeasure with Coach Mangini. A veteran player like Harrison won't normally openly rebel against the coach unless other players on the team share his opinion. Harrison's complaint may indeed be indicative of internal dissension in the Browns clubhouse. So far the Browns have played well in 2010 every game, right up until the moment that they have a gut check, and then they fall apart. Teams have a collective character, and the Browns offensive character is, well, offensive. Gauging this factor is very difficult and that's why not too many people get rich betting on NFL games. The best we can do is look at the clues and this week it looks gloomy. In football more than any sport, one man can lift an entire team out of the abyss with great effort, but the Browns only playmaker is Josh Cribbs and so far this season teams are doing everything they can to assure that Cribbs doesn't have the opportunity to lift the Browns spirits. Give the Bengals another 5 points for the emotional edge factor.

I hate to say it, but all signs point to an 0-4 start for the Browns. Once again I hope we are wrong.......

BL Predicts:
Bengals 21
Browns 12

BL predicts: Week Three vs Baltimore

The Brown Log have two predictions this week:

- First prediction is that if the Browns arrive to 0-4, Holmgren will fire Mangini and replace him with Rob Ryan

- Second prediction is relative to this Sunday's matchup at Baltimore. Ryan's defense is coming together as a group. TJ Ward gets better every week and Ryan always has a variation up his sleeve that forces opponents to make adjustments.

On the other side of the ball however, our offense will have to face the Ravens who have yet to give up a touchdown all season. Seneca Wallace will likely once again take the reigns but the Browns simply don't have any playmakers that can step up and help Wallace move the ball. Frustratingly, Mangini puts Josh Cribbs on the field with the offense about 5 plays per game while our regular wideouts simply are unable to get open. It's hard to imagine fumble prone Peyton Hillis doing much, while Jerome Harrison is fighting an injury.

I think both teams will struggle to score, but the Ravens in the end, should get past the Browns. The bad news with a loss would be a horrible 0-3 start, the good news would be that we would be one step closer to ending the Mangini era in Cleveland.

In any case, here's hoping Rob Ryan's crew dominate the Ravens and our Browns sneak out of Baltimore with a W.

BL Predicts

Ravens 19
Browns 13