BL Predicts: Week 16 vs Pittsburgh

Bill Fitch once said that close only counts in horse shoes, hand grenades and drive in movies. Well, in 2011 the Browns actually came close to having a decent team. There are numerous games that we could have won had we had a break here or there or avoided a bone head mistake or two. All that said, we are going to lose more games in 2011 than Eric Mangini lost in 2010. At least the Holmgren years have been consistent.

Against Pittsburgh tomorrow we can only hope the game will be close. The Steelers have a lot to play for and since they are our arch rival, it would be nice to hurt them badly by beating them. Slim chance of that, though we might just come "close".


BL Predicts

Browns 9
Steelers 23

The Brown Log is 9-6 year to date on the prediction front.

BL Predicts: Week 15 vs Baltimore

These last few weeks are easy pickings for the prognosticator looking to drive his full year won loss record up. Our record in predicting the outcome of Browns games is 8-6 and it should be easy to finish 10-6. No likely upsets coming.

The only points of human interest today will be to observe if Shurmur's troops continue to play with motivation. It's a credit to Shurmur's leadership that his teams have shown up every Sunday all season and given it their best and by and large had a chance to win every game in the 4th quarter. At 4-10, these are the real dog days of the season for both players and fans so we have to hang our hat on the hope that Seneca wants to show his ability, Hillis is playing for gazillions in his next contract and many players are auditioning to keep their job next year, given that the Browns have a lot of early draft picks in the next draft.

The other point of interest will be to see how Seneca does this week. He did not look all that bad last week (better stated, he was clearly superior to the Colt).

BL Predicts
Browns 13
Ravens 27

BL Predicts: Arizona

Arizona 21
Browns 14

The BL is 7-6 so far this season.

BL Predicts: Week 12 vs Baltimore: I'm tired.....

Without any positive or negative connotations whatsoever, most Browns fans are tired.

Tired of years of waiting for next year. Tired of losing. Tired of watching one of the NFLs most fabled franchises continue to play in a way that dishonors the Browns tradition established by Ohio's Paul Brown in 1946. Brown and his Browns established a dynasty in the 50s and a winning tradition that lasted until the day the Art Modell era began in the early 1960's.

Today once again, the fact is that we all have to suffer through at least 5 more games before we have yet another shot at next year being the year that we finally terminate over 50 years largely marked by misery and it is extremely tiring.

The Brown Log is 5-6 year to date in predicting the outcome of Browns games. Time to get our won-loss record shored up. Under the leadership of Mike Holmgren there are reasons to be optimistic, but today is Sunday gameday and damn it, we are tired. It is hard to imagine the Browns winning another game this year.

BL Predicts

Ravens 23
Browns 12

BL predicts: Week 10 vs Jacksonsville

Barring some kind of miracle transformation, today is the Browns last chance to win a game during the 2011 NFL Season. That stated winning today will not be easy. The Browns have several key players still injured and two ex Browns players, Matt Roth and Brian Robiske, now play with Jacksonville, and in particular Robiske, who was still a Brown 3 weeks ago, will have worked overtime preparting the Jags staff with insight into the Browns schemes. Not that any NFL defense needs help stopping the Browns offense.

It's not easy to win a game without scoring any points but I will go out on a limb and predict that somehow the Browns will ring up their last W of the season.

BL Predicts
Browns 18
Jags 13

6 field goals carry the day for our Brownies

BL Predicts: Week Nine vs St Louis

Last week i predicted with my heart, not my head and approximately 5 minutes into the first quarter, when the Browns found themselves down 14-0 I realized the err of my ways. Pity.

This week the Browns face the 1-7 Rams and I really am worried that our Browns are going to lay another major egg. Sam Bradford will be back at the controls this week, TJ Ward is out with an injury and the Browns are coming off a very embarrasing loss in Houston last week.

Football is a game in which emotions count heavily and the winner of today's game will likely be the team that comes out more motivated.

The bottom line today is that both teams stink, but reality is that the 3-5 Browns have much more to play for than the 1-7 Rams. The fact is that if the Browns win, they are only 1 game south of .500 and a decent season will be still within their grasp. I like Pat Shurmur a lot and hope that last weeks beating at the hands of Houston, opened Shurmur's mind to the idea that a full implementation of the West Coast offense should be a long term project and maybe, just maybe, Shurmur should be a bit more realistic and consider putting a few simple and basic plays in his playbook that parlay the talents he has on his roster, such as Josh Cribbs. Furthermore, Shurmur, Holmgren et al, need to realize that our offensive line has so many holes that executing the West Coast is nearly impossible. Only one example, according to ProFootballFocus.com, rookie Jason PInkston has received a negative grade for his play EVERY WEEK of this season and only two guards in the entire NFL grade out worse than Pinkston.

The West Coast offense and it's complex twists and turns takes time to perfect, and that was never more apparent than last week when Colt McCoy's pass to Greg Little at the end of the first half was intercepted by Houston and nearly returned for a touchdown. On that play, Little read the defense one way, and took the option to head deep. In the meantime, Colt read the defense another way and the result - intercept and field goal Houston.....

So against all my instincts, I am going to guess that the team that has more to play for, our Browns, actually shows up motivated and that Shurmur will have a simple gameplan ready that uses the talent he has and considers the limitations of his current talent. But it will not be easy. The home field advantage is normally a big factor in favor of the home team but look for Cleveland fans today to be anything but loving to the home team. Don't be surprised if Bradford rings up a few big plays early and the Browns find themselves once again playing catch up, something they are terribly inept at.

BL Predicts

Browns 17
Rams 14

The Brown Log are 4-4 this year on the prognastication front.

BL Predicts: Week Eight vs Houston

It is officially panic time in Cleveland. Naturally the Browns are still in the hunt at 3-4, and have a chance to be a .500 team at the halfway point of the season, something that has not happened in ages. So why all the gloom and doom? I think nearly 50 years without a championship has simply clouded our ability to reason.

I will go on the record today and exclaim "stay calm". In spite of an offensive line that has two or three players who could not start for any other team in the NFL and in spite of having very little talent at WR this team has competed in nearly every game this season. Furthermore Peyton Hillis has managed to go from hero to villian in less than 8 games. Holding himself out of a game he could have played in put him in a bad position with fans in working class Cleveland. But the end of the love affair took place last Monday when Hillis blew off a commitment to attend a children's event he has promised to attend.

On the plus side, the Browns defense is in the top tier in the NFL which means that on any given Sunday this team can win and finally, for those of you who might doubt Pat Shurmur, I really suggest you listen to the man during his press conferences. He is a straight shooter and has a clear plan for this team. He also has the support of a skilled front office, it is only a matter of time before this guy is a winner and that time might well come this season.

So what do I think about today's game? I predict a shocking Browns win. As troubled as the Browns are right now, so are the Texans. They have key players missing due to injury and are 2-2 in the last 4 weeks. Look for the Browns D to come through big and even put a few points on the board today. Finally, today may be the game in which Carlton Mitchell finally contributes with some long gains. He will get a chance, that is likely

BL Predicts
Browns 20
Texans 13

The BL is 4-3 on the season in predicting Sunday's result

BL Predicts: Week Seven vs San Francisco

On the road vs a good Niners team this week. After the total disappearance of the Browns offense last week it is difficult to imagine anything other than a Browns loss this week.

BL Predicts

Browns 13
49ers 24

The BL is 3-3 this year on the prediction front.

BL Predicts: Week Six vs Seattle

In what is a must win game if the Browns are to hold onto playoff hopes, this Sunday is a major test. Pat Shurmur is starting to see how serious Browns football is to northern Ohioans. Holmgren had to step up and take a bit of the heat off Shurmur with a press conference earlier this week so that Shurmur could concentrate on getting ready for Seattle. At the same press conference Holmgren stated that Shurmur would not both head coach and offensive coordinator in 2012 so even Holmgren is starting to send some signals to his new head coach that while we have some good excuses, it is time to put those behind and get on with getting some results.

Optimism is quickly running out and patience wearing thin in winning starved Cleveland. There are a lot of negatives we can latch onto this week, with Hillis and Haden both likely out and morale among the troops apparently low. Still the home team wins 57% of the time in the NFL and this week lets hope that the home field advantage is enough for the Browns to pull out a W.

BL Predicts: Evan Moore has a big game and the Browns win

Browns 24
Seahawks 16

BL Predicts: Week Five vs Oakland

The Brown Log are 2-2 this season in game predictions after not only predicting the Tennessee game correctly but also darn near nailing the final score. After the drubbing at home at the hands of a Tennessee squad that many fans do not respect, prognosticators are nearly universal in predicting that the Browns will get beat soundly today in Oakland.

The Brown Log felt that the facts in the run up to the Tennessee game pointed clearly to the Browns being soundly defeated. So what are the facts on the table for today's Raiders game?

- Oakland are 3-2 and have won vs the Jets, Texans and beat Denver at Mile Hile, which is never easy. Furthermore the Browns have never done well vs Oakland on the road and we all know that the home team wins 57% of the time in the NFL.

However unlike the Tennessee game I see many factors working in the Browns favor this week:

- First and foremost, the Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking near the bottom of the league both against the run and pass. If you want further evidence of just how significant of a mess the Raiders find themselves in, look no further than the fact that the Raiders traded this week for Seahawks back up linebacker Aaron Curry, a former first round bust and after all of three days to get ready, Curry will be starting today against the Browns.

- While the Raiders have one of the leagues top offenses, their success is due in strong part to a rushing game near the top of the NFL is yards per game. If the Browns prepare well, our 4-3 defense should have a chance to hold it's own against the Raiders rushing game.

- While the Browns D will be weakened by the likely loss of Joe Haden, the Raiders QB Jason Campbell is still prone to mistakes. One or two turnovers can change the complexion of a game quickly.

- The Browns have had two full weeks to prep for the Raiders while the Raiders during their one week of prep have had to deal with a historical distraction, the passing of their leader Al Davis, one of the great figures in NFL history. While the Raiders may get an emotional lift from the desire to play well during the week that their Hall of Fame President passed away, there can be no doubt that their game preparation had to be negatively affected. There simply was less time available than in a normal week for Raiders management and coaches to get ready for this game.

- This game is the real debut of the Cleveland squad. Because of the lockout, our team and it's new coach had four short weeks to install completely new systems on offense and defense. As a result we've seen Pat Shurmur continue to evaluate the entire roster in the first 4 games. These two weeks off have allowed Shurmur time to assess the first four weeks of the season and make some decisions. Look to see more of Evan Moore, Greg Little and Peyton Hillis today. Watch for the Browns to better balance the run and the pass and look in particular for Ben Watson to have a big day.

- The big negative for our Browns is the likely absence of Joe Haden today, who is quickly becoming a reliable shut down corner.

Bottom line: Look for the Browns to score often and shock the NFL today with a win in a high scoring shootout.

BL Predicts:
Browns 31
Raiders 28

BL Predicts: Week Four vs. Tennessee

Factors to be considered in advance of today's Browns vs Titans game:

- The Browns offense struggled last week against a mediocre at best Miami defense. It is clear that the West Coast offense the Browns are implementing takes a lot more than 7 weeks to install. In the West Coast offense, receiver and quarterback both must make reads and arrive to the same conclusion, often in a split second. Against the Dolphins, there were several occasions in which Colt made a decision to throw to one area only to find his receiver take another angle.

- The Titans defense is one of the best in the NFL.

-Colt McCoy is tied with Chad Henne for taking the most QB hits this season with 21. As a result at times McCoy throws off balance and falls down when barely touched. He is getting a bit punch drunk and this is a by product of an offensive line that has two signficant holes in it, left guard and right tackle. Tony Pashos is back at right tackle today and Jason Pinkston is steadily improving at left guard. Will it be enough? Probably not, especially when you consider that our Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Thomas, will probably play but is listed as questionable due to a knee injury.

-There were signs last week that folks were not happy with Peyton Hillis' decision not to play. One need not read between the lines too much to interpret this in comments made by Pat Shurmur and Colt McCoy. Signs of dissension? Perhaps. One of the reasons that football games are hard to predict is that emotions play a larger role in football than any other sport. When two well prepared teams face each other, that extra inch you need often falls into place if every player is pulling in the same direction. Will a bit of rancor amongst the Browns troops cut into the teams spirit? It's possible, we'll have to watch and see today.

- Matt Hasselbeck is one of the hottest QBs in the NFL right now.

- Titans RB Chris Johnson got a late start after a contract hold out and has performed poorly in his first three games. All signs point to him being healthy, his timing is off. Game 4 could be the point that he puts it all together.

All of the above pointed out, the Browns came together last week at the last minute and performed when they needed to and that will give them confidence that they can build on. Finally, the home team wins nearly 58% of the time in the NFL.

So what do I think about today's outcome? While I believe that this team is going to improve every week and I believe after game eleven the Browns will still be in serious playoff contention, I also believe this week is going to be a learning experience for our young Browns. They are going to learn that it is not enough to avoid mistakes to win games against good teams, you also have to execute all game long. One thing is clear, with so many factors potentially working against the Browns today, if they come together and beat Tennessee, it will be a result of a well laid game plan and extra work this week.

BL Predicts: Today should be a long day for the Browns but a key turning point on their way to jelling as a team.

Browns 13
Titans 27

BL Predicts: Week Three vs Miami

Browns fans should be concerned this week if for no other reason than the fact that the Brown Log is predicting a victory. So far this season the Brown Log is 0-2 in predicting the outcome. Our only saving grace is that we are not alone. Tony Grossi of the Plain Dealer has also chalked up zero correct predictions this year.

Another source of concern this week is the fact that the Dolphins, at 0-2, have to be considering this game a must win. Emotions play a big role in football, hence should Miami come out with a do or die kamikaze mentality, the Browns are going to have their hands full.

What tilts the prediction for me is the fact that ex Browns "offensive" coordinator Brian Daboll, is now Miami's offensive coordinator. Daboll has lousy people skills and in his tenure in Cleveland he also demonstrated that he's not a very good coach. Rest easy Browns fans, tactically the Dolphins on offense are going to make mistakes. Add in the home field advantage and today should be an easy win for the Browns.

BL Predicts
Browns 31
Dolphins 17

BL Predicts: Week Two vs Colts

Week one was a major disappointment for our Browns however it is time to put things in perspective. The lock out gave the Browns a mere 4 weeks to put new systems in place on both offense and defense. Furthermore they had to do so with an array of new talent. There was a lot of bad points but also many good ones.

On defense, among the very positive points were the All Pro performance of Joe Haden, who together with rookie DT Phil Taylor give the Browns defense a major boost. On D the major points of concern were the disappointing step backwards taken by TJ Ward last Sunday and Chris Gocong's shaky week 1 performance.

On offense there were fewer signs of life. First off, it is clear that our receiving corps are still not NFL caliber, second the offensive line has too many new players, learning a new system. Rookie Jason Pinkston is playing guard for the first time in his life. I made a point to watch Pinkston on Sunday. What I saw is an athlete clearly up the challenge physically, Pinkston is going to be in the NFL a long time. However, Pinkston is playing a new position and in particular on passing downs, he had trouble recognizing stunts and blitzes. Finally, Colt McCoy, whom Pat Shurmur refused to annoint as team captain, showed Shurmur that perhaps his doubts are well placed. McCoy looked less than razor sharp both as a leader and a passer. I still believe in Colt and I always remind folks that Brian Sipe had some pretty bad games early on in his career, but I too was left shaking my head on the play towards the end of the game where Colt let a wet football slip out of his hands, resulting in a three stooges like interception. Colt, if you cannot handle a little rain son, then December in Cleveland is not going to be much fun for you.

Special teams were fine, thanks to always prepared Josh Cribbs.

So what is next against Indianapolis? Probably another tough loss. Road games are always difficult in the NFL and even without Peyton Manning, the Colts are going to be a handful for our Browns. It's going to be a tough start to the season though I keep reminding people that the Kardiac Kids started their magical season out 0-2 in 1980, and I think we will be off to an 0-2 start in 2011.

BL Predicts:

Colts 27
Browns 17

BL Predicts: Week 1 vs Cincinnati

This first game of the new NFL season is very hard to predict. There are a lot of new variables all coming together so let's study them:

Negatives
* A new coach together with a new offense and defense. I am very happy with Pat Shurmur and the direction he is taking the team, but for the first game of the year, the fact that he's new is more negative than positive, especially when you consider the lockout and short time Shurmur has had to acclimate his team to completely new ways of playing. Due to the lockout, the Browns lost the entire off season and only had a handful of weeks to teach their team these new systems.
* The offensive line has lost Eric Steinbach to a season ending injury and will start rookie Jason Pinkston in his place. Watch Pinkston's play today early if you want an initial take as to how the game might go. Look for the Bengals to try to confuse and take advantage of Pinkston on obvious passing downs. If Pinkston can rise to the occasion, it should be a good afternoon for the Browns. Otherwise, McCoy might find himself on his back more than a few times.

Positives
* Colt McCoy appears to be ahead of schedule in understanding the West Coast offense.
* In game one, the Browns are at home. The home team wins nearly 60% of the time in the NFL.
* The Bengals will start a rookie quarterback against the Browns. Andy Dalton will likely make a few errors during the game that will assist the Browns.

BL Predicts
Browns 23
Bengals 17

For reference find the Browns depth chart for today's game:
OFFENSE

QB: Colt McCoy
2nd - Seneca Wallace
3rd - Thaddeus Lewis

RB: Peyton Hillis
2nd - Montario Hardesty
3rd - Armond Smith

FB: Owen Marecic

TE: Ben Watson
2nd - Evan Moore
3rd - Alex Smith
4th - Jordan Cameron

WR: Mohammed Massaquoi
2nd - Josh Cribbs
3rd - Jordan Norwood

WR: Brian Robiskie
2nd - Greg Little
3rd - Carlton Mitchell

LT: Joe Thomas

LG: Jason Pinkston
2nd - Artis Hicks

CT: Alex Mack
2nd - Steve Vallos

RG: Shawn Lauvao
2nd - John Greco

RT: Tony Pashos
2nd - Oniel Cousins


DEFENSE

LDE: Jayme Mitchell
2nd - Emannuel Stephens

LDT: Phil Taylor
2nd - Scott Paxson

RDT: Ahtyba Rubin
2nd - Brian Schaefering

RDE: Jabaal Sheard
2nd - Marcus Benard

WLB: Chris Gocong
2nd - Kaluka Maiava

MLB: D'Qwell Jackson
2nd - Titus Brown

SLB: Scott Fujita
2nd - Quinton Spears

LCB: Joe Haden
2nd - Buster Skrine

RCB: Sheldon Brown
2nd - Dimitri Patterson
3rd - James Dockery

FS: Mike Adams
2nd - Usama Young

SS: TJ Ward
2nd - Ray Ventrone
3rd - Eric Hagg


SPECIAL TEAMS

P: Richmond McGee

K: Phil Dawson

H: Richmond McGee

LS: Ryan Pontbriand

KR: Josh Cribbs
2nd - Buster Skrine
3rd - James Dockery
4th - Armond Smith

PR: Josh Cribbs
2nd - Jordan Norwood
3rd - James Dockery
4th - Armond Smith

PRACTICE SQUAD
RB Quinn Porter
FB Eddie Williams
WR Rod Windsor
OT Dom Alford
OL Jarrod Shaw
DL Brian Sanford
DE Auston English
LB Ben Jacobs

BL Predicts: Super Bowl XLV

As much as I hate the Steelers, Its hard to ignore the fact that the Steelers are a far better team than Green Bay. Even more surprising is that many pundits have gotten caught up in the fact that the Packers are hot but those same pundits neglect the fact that the NFC simply cannot compare to the AFC.

Bottom line: The Packers are a wild card team on a bit of a roll while the Steelers are a talent laden team and the class of the AFC.

BL Predicts:


Steelers 24
Packers 14

Bl Predicts: Season ends vs Pittsburgh

The Brown Log attempts to top off our season record at .500 in the last week of the season. In what may be Eric Mangini's last game, it will be interesting to see how the Browns come out and play. If the team plays with heart it shows that they believe in Mangini.

Look for the Browns to give a respectable performance, but the Steelers simply have too much at stake Sunday.

BL Predicts

Browns 17
Steelers 26

The BL are 7-8 in predicting the outcome of Browns games year to date.

BL Predicts: Game 15 vs Ravens

Injuries to numerous key players leave the Browns weakened and renders predicting results of games quite a bit easier.

BL Predicts

Browns 13
Ravens 27

The Brown Log are 6-8 year to date on the prediction front.

BL Predicts: Game 14 vs The Bengals

The end of the season is near and many important decisions will be taken by Mike Holmgren based on the performance of the Browns over these last 3 games. Will the Browns come together as a team and perform well or will they ride out the string.

The 2010 campaign has been one of many ups and downs and looking back, after the disaster of 2009, the fact is that the Browns competed all season long in every game. That stated, I think only Mike Holmgren can judge if Coach Mangini will merit another year. If Holmgren fires Mangini, the likely reason is that while the Browns have in fact competed in 2010, it is primarily due to the innovations introduced by Rob Ryan on defense. The Browns defense took Dick Lebeau's zone blitz schemes to the next level, often substituting linebackers for defensive linemen, a strategy that infinitely complicated the opposing quarterbacks reads. Instead of having to account for 4 linebackers, opposing QBs often found themselves having to evaluate the positioning of up to 6 or even 7 linebackers. On 3rd and long the Browns have dared opponents to run, and one only need recall Tom Brady's awful showing against the Browns to realize that Ryan's schemes confused even the best quarterback in the game.

So the question is "does Mangini deserve credit for Rob Ryan's innovation?" My inclination is to say that Mangini does in fact deserve credit for the Browns defensive success in 2010. Everything on a team starts and finishes with the head coach. However only those persons associated with the Browns day to day truly can evaluate Mangini's role in putting this innovative defense on the field every Sunday. This is important because it is very likely that Rob Ryan will be lured away by some NFL team next year to be their head coach so next year Mangini will not have Rob Ryan' support.

Mike Holmgren's decision on whether to retain Mangini will tell us the inside story.

On to the Bengals game. When the Bengals and Browns played in game four earlier this season, the Bengals were still viewed as a one of the better teams in the NFL. The Browns were 0-3 at the time of that game and badly needed a W. The Browns led by Seneca Wallace got the win that Sunday in Cleveland and the Bengals have since stumbled to only 2 wins.

One point I clearly recall from that match up earlier this year is that the Bengals were one of few teams this year to come into the game with a good plan to counter Rob Ryan's innovative defense. At one point in the game for example, Ryan threw his zero down lineman scheme at Carson Palmer, the Bengals immediately went into a no-huddle and drove the ball down near to the goal line over the next few plays. Palmer passed for nearly 400 yards that day.

Pundits are getting wrapped in the fact that the Bengals have only 2 wins this year but a closer look shows that the Bengals have competed in nearly every game this year. Add in the following factors and I think today's outcome becomes clear:

- Bengals are at home.
- Colt will play but he still is not 100%
- Browns morale is down after a demoralizing defeat

I think it all adds up to a clear and solid loss. For the first time this year, we may see a game in which our Browns are soundly defeated


BL Predicts

Browns 17
Bengals 33

The Brown Log are 5-8 is our predictions this season

BL Predicts: game 13 vs the Bills

As a long time Browns fan the 2010 season has been very difficult to predict. A lifetime of losing certainly has tempered our ability to recognize that our Browns have a world class D that gives them a shot at winning every Sunday. Our offense however assures that almost no game will be a blowout, unless of course the defense scores a few times.

On paper Buffalo should be an easy win but nothing comes easy to our Browns and this week will be no different. Look for Jake Delhomme to move the team and just when we seem to have the Bills by the neck he'll make a mistake to put them back in the game. Look for Rob Ryan's D to dominate and keep the Browns on top all afternoon in spite of the offense.

What will happen ? Close game but Cleveland should win.

BL Predicts

Browns 17
Bills 10

The Brown Log won loss now matches our Brownies. We are 5-7 on predictions year to date

BL Predicts: week twelve vs Dolphins

On the road vs a Dolphins team playing well. The Browns are banged up, and starting to show it. It all points to a loss.

BL Predicts

Browns 15
Dolphins 27

The Brown Log after practically nailing last weeks final score, are 5-6 year to date