The Brown Log are 2-2 this season in game predictions after not only predicting the Tennessee game correctly but also darn near nailing the final score. After the drubbing at home at the hands of a Tennessee squad that many fans do not respect, prognosticators are nearly universal in predicting that the Browns will get beat soundly today in Oakland.
The Brown Log felt that the facts in the run up to the Tennessee game pointed clearly to the Browns being soundly defeated. So what are the facts on the table for today's Raiders game?
- Oakland are 3-2 and have won vs the Jets, Texans and beat Denver at Mile Hile, which is never easy. Furthermore the Browns have never done well vs Oakland on the road and we all know that the home team wins 57% of the time in the NFL.
However unlike the Tennessee game I see many factors working in the Browns favor this week:
- First and foremost, the Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking near the bottom of the league both against the run and pass. If you want further evidence of just how significant of a mess the Raiders find themselves in, look no further than the fact that the Raiders traded this week for Seahawks back up linebacker Aaron Curry, a former first round bust and after all of three days to get ready, Curry will be starting today against the Browns.
- While the Raiders have one of the leagues top offenses, their success is due in strong part to a rushing game near the top of the NFL is yards per game. If the Browns prepare well, our 4-3 defense should have a chance to hold it's own against the Raiders rushing game.
- While the Browns D will be weakened by the likely loss of Joe Haden, the Raiders QB Jason Campbell is still prone to mistakes. One or two turnovers can change the complexion of a game quickly.
- The Browns have had two full weeks to prep for the Raiders while the Raiders during their one week of prep have had to deal with a historical distraction, the passing of their leader Al Davis, one of the great figures in NFL history. While the Raiders may get an emotional lift from the desire to play well during the week that their Hall of Fame President passed away, there can be no doubt that their game preparation had to be negatively affected. There simply was less time available than in a normal week for Raiders management and coaches to get ready for this game.
- This game is the real debut of the Cleveland squad. Because of the lockout, our team and it's new coach had four short weeks to install completely new systems on offense and defense. As a result we've seen Pat Shurmur continue to evaluate the entire roster in the first 4 games. These two weeks off have allowed Shurmur time to assess the first four weeks of the season and make some decisions. Look to see more of Evan Moore, Greg Little and Peyton Hillis today. Watch for the Browns to better balance the run and the pass and look in particular for Ben Watson to have a big day.
- The big negative for our Browns is the likely absence of Joe Haden today, who is quickly becoming a reliable shut down corner.
Bottom line: Look for the Browns to score often and shock the NFL today with a win in a high scoring shootout.
BL Predicts:
Browns 31
Raiders 28
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