Sunday, October 2, 2011

BL Predicts: Week Four vs. Tennessee


Factors to be considered in advance of today's Browns vs Titans game:

- The Browns offense struggled last week against a mediocre at best Miami defense. It is clear that the West Coast offense the Browns are implementing takes a lot more than 7 weeks to install. In the West Coast offense, receiver and quarterback both must make reads and arrive to the same conclusion, often in a split second. Against the Dolphins, there were several occasions in which Colt made a decision to throw to one area only to find his receiver take another angle.

- The Titans defense is one of the best in the NFL.

-Colt McCoy is tied with Chad Henne for taking the most QB hits this season with 21. As a result at times McCoy throws off balance and falls down when barely touched. He is getting a bit punch drunk and this is a by product of an offensive line that has two signficant holes in it, left guard and right tackle. Tony Pashos is back at right tackle today and Jason Pinkston is steadily improving at left guard. Will it be enough? Probably not, especially when you consider that our Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Thomas, will probably play but is listed as questionable due to a knee injury.

-There were signs last week that folks were not happy with Peyton Hillis' decision not to play. One need not read between the lines too much to interpret this in comments made by Pat Shurmur and Colt McCoy. Signs of dissension? Perhaps. One of the reasons that football games are hard to predict is that emotions play a larger role in football than any other sport. When two well prepared teams face each other, that extra inch you need often falls into place if every player is pulling in the same direction. Will a bit of rancor amongst the Browns troops cut into the teams spirit? It's possible, we'll have to watch and see today.

- Matt Hasselbeck is one of the hottest QBs in the NFL right now.

- Titans RB Chris Johnson got a late start after a contract hold out and has performed poorly in his first three games. All signs point to him being healthy, his timing is off. Game 4 could be the point that he puts it all together.

All of the above pointed out, the Browns came together last week at the last minute and performed when they needed to and that will give them confidence that they can build on. Finally, the home team wins nearly 58% of the time in the NFL.

So what do I think about today's outcome? While I believe that this team is going to improve every week and I believe after game eleven the Browns will still be in serious playoff contention, I also believe this week is going to be a learning experience for our young Browns. They are going to learn that it is not enough to avoid mistakes to win games against good teams, you also have to execute all game long. One thing is clear, with so many factors potentially working against the Browns today, if they come together and beat Tennessee, it will be a result of a well laid game plan and extra work this week.

BL Predicts: Today should be a long day for the Browns but a key turning point on their way to jelling as a team.

Browns 13
Titans 27

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