BL Predicts: Week Four vs the Bengals

Predicting NFL games is a mechanical exercise. Each week we consider and add up the following factors:

- the home team wins 57% of the games in the NFL, that's worth about 3 points

- compare the talent of the team's healthy players and their ability to play and execute the game as a team.

- Look for emotional factors that might give advantage to one team or the other.

Week 4 against Cincinnati stacks up as follows

- Browns are at home so they start with 3 points in the bag
- The Bengals are a balanced and talented team, capable of executing well at each position. The Browns have no talent at WR, a weak right side of the offensive line, a good TE, good QB's and average running backs. On D, the Browns appear highly motivated behind the creative leadership of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, albeit the Browns lack depth and talent on the defensive line. On talent let's give the Bengals a 7 point advantage on the Brownies.
- Emotionally, there is a bad sign for Cleveland. This week, Running back Jerome Harrison publicly expressed displeasure with Coach Mangini. A veteran player like Harrison won't normally openly rebel against the coach unless other players on the team share his opinion. Harrison's complaint may indeed be indicative of internal dissension in the Browns clubhouse. So far the Browns have played well in 2010 every game, right up until the moment that they have a gut check, and then they fall apart. Teams have a collective character, and the Browns offensive character is, well, offensive. Gauging this factor is very difficult and that's why not too many people get rich betting on NFL games. The best we can do is look at the clues and this week it looks gloomy. In football more than any sport, one man can lift an entire team out of the abyss with great effort, but the Browns only playmaker is Josh Cribbs and so far this season teams are doing everything they can to assure that Cribbs doesn't have the opportunity to lift the Browns spirits. Give the Bengals another 5 points for the emotional edge factor.

I hate to say it, but all signs point to an 0-4 start for the Browns. Once again I hope we are wrong.......

BL Predicts:
Bengals 21
Browns 12