BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs, week 3 - Divisional Championships

New England at Denver

Peyton Manning and the Broncos will be ready for the Patriots, who are a far weaker team when playing on the road where it is much harder for Bill Belichick to steal opponents plays.  Without inside information, the weaknesses in the Patriots game emerge.   They are weak in particular in the defensive backfield and Peyton Manning will exploit those holes.   I see this game as a runaway win for the Broncos.  

Denver              35
New England     17


SF 49ers at Seattle

In what should be one of the best games of the season, two evenly matched teams will fight it out.   Both sport fantastic defenses and have offenses led by mobile quarterbacks.   Seattle should focus on establishing a passing game in order to open up the run.  Seattle was not able to pass very well against the Saints and a result the score was closer than it should have been.  The Seahawks must establish the air game against the 49ers if they're to have any chance of moving the ball on the ground.   Look for Russell Wilson to step up with a Pro Bowl caliber performance and Seattle will win by a thin margin

Seattle          24
SF 49ers      20

The BL were 2-2 last week and now have a 5-3 record in this season's NFL Playoff predictions.

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs - Week 2

The BL got off to a decent start last week, correctly predicting 3 out of 4 matches.    Only Andy Dalton and the Bengals let us down.  On to week 2 of sensational NFL playoff games!

New Orleans at Seattle

Home field advantage and Seattle's incredibly fast defense will make life hard on Drew Brees.   Russell Wilson proved last year that he knows how to step it up in big games.   Unless something unforeseen like a key injury takes place, Seattle has this game going away.

Seattle              27
New Orleans   17


Indianapolis Colts at New England

The X factor in this game may well be the Colts signing this week of former Patriots WR, Deion Branch, who played 89 games for the Patriots in his career.   Branch may not be completely up to speed with the cheating methods that Bill Belichick is employing this season but he should be able to give some insights to the Colts into how to avoid being victimized by Belichick's illegal schemes.   Leave no stone unturned is what the Colts were saying when they signed Branch and I like that.   The Pats are actually not a very talented team.  Their receivers are mediocre and their defense is horrendous but Tom Brady is a good QB and Bill Belichick knows how to find advantages for his team, be they legal or not.

Plain and simple, the Colts are a better team than the Pats and I see them overcoming all obstacles in their way on the road this weekend.

Colts           30
Pats             20


San Francisco at Carolina 

Many pundits are picking San Fran this weekend because they refuse to accept that Cam Newton is the most gifted QB in the entire NFL.   Why they have that viewpoint is baffling to me because all you have to do is watch to guy to see an arm like no other in the game together with leadership that is world class.   And he can run too, which in the NFL playoffs of 2014 is proving to be a necessary skill.   I love Harbaugh too, he's the best coach in the game but I think Cam will carry the Panthers on his back to the Conference finals.

Carolina          24
SF 49ers          23


San Diego at Denver

I was in the stands for the Bengals vs Chargers game last Sunday.   The Chargers didn't really beat the Bengals, I think the Bengals killed themselves.    Without Andy Dalton's turnovers the Chargers would have been in a battle for their lives.   Peyton Manning is "not" Andy Dalton and the Denver Broncos are not the Cincinnati Bengals.   San Diego is nothing more than a small obstacle in Peyton Manning's march to the Super Bowl.   Forget it SD, you're going home.

Denver         42
San Diego    17

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs - Week 1

As is now tradition, the BL will take aim at predicting the winners in the NFL playoffs each week.

This weeks games include:

KC Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts:  The Chiefs, under Andy Reid, dramatically improved their team this year and one key was playing Marty Schottenheimer football.    Control possession by running and short high percent passes.   Eat clock, don't turn the ball over and play rock solid D.   This is a proven winning formula but Marty proved that in the playoffs you have to be ready to roll the dice, or you risk losing.   I'm going with Andrew Luck and the Colts at home.

Colts   27
Chiefs 17

New Orleans at Philadelphia:  In one year, Chip Kelly proved the naysayers wrong and turned the Eagles around with his innovative offensive schemes and his focus on factors such as nutrition and conditioning.   His players responded with a division title.   The emergence of Nick Foles is also a major feather in Kelly's cap.  New Orleans however are a more talented and experienced team.  Playoff experience at QB is the major factor in favor of the Saints.  The Eagles fans will make it hard on Brees but  I think Drew Brees and his crew will be more than ready.  I'm going with the road team here

Saints    33
Eagles   27


San Diego at Cincinnati:   San Diego is the weakest team in the playoffs going against a very balanced Cincinnati team that hasn't lost at home all year.  I see the Bengals getting past San Diego in the cold harsh weather at home.

Bengals    20
Chargers  10


San Francisco at Green Bay:  I see this game as by far the hardest to predict.   First and foremast the forecast is for the "HIGH" temperature tomorrow to be -4 degrees.   The brutal cold makes it unlikely that we see a lot of offense so we're probably going to see a close game in which turnovers may be a key.   On paper, Green Bay barely snuck into the playoffs while SF were one of the strongest teams in the league, but Green Bay is a different team with Aaron Rodgers at QB.  The return of Rodgers at full strength is a major consideration.   On the other hand, I like San Fran's running game including the ability of their QB Colin Kaepernick to run the ball, and I think the Niners have the best coach in the NFL.   Flip a coin here but I'm going to bet that Kaepernick will avoid mistakes and make a few big plays on the ground and the 49ers are going to squeak by the Pack.

49ers     13
Packers  10

BL Predicts: Game 16 Browns vs Steelers

Not much analysis needed this week, as the Browns close out yet another losing season.

- Browns are on the road and have nothing to play for other than perhaps a better position in the draft.

- Steelers are fighting for yet another playoff birth.

- Browns are quite banged up with numerous key players either out or at risk of missing this weeks game.


BL Predicts:

Steelers      31
Browns      17


The BL are 10-5 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 15 vs Jets

Yet another losing season for the Cleveland Browns is winding up.  All we are left to reflect on is that the Browns keep losing year after year after year.

It torture to think about this but last year the Kansas City Chiefs won 1 game and they are now one of the best teams in the AFC.  The Philadelphia Eagles last year won 4 games and now they're in the playoff hunt.  Our Browns won 5 games last year and they'll be lucky to tie that total this year.

Our best chance to get back to the magical 5 win total is Sunday against the Jets.   Hard game to predict because the Jets aren't all that much better than Cleveland.  But the Browns are on the road, banged up, and coming off a series of extremely deflating defeats.

I could see Josh Gordon having a huge game and it's not that far fetched to imagine Geno Smith giving Cleveland a few intercepts.   But winning on the road is hard, especially without Jordan Cameron and possibly without Joe Haden.

I'm going with the home team this week.

BL Predicts:

Jets 23
Browns 16


The BL are 9-5 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 14 vs 'da Bears

For 58 minutes last week, the Brown Log was the only prognosticator on earth that had correctly foreseen a Browns victory over the New England Patriots.   Then fate, game fixing referees, and God knows what else, intervened, allowing New England to walk off the field of play with a victory they did not earn.  The Brown Log have consistently out predicted the experts this year and if we'd have nailed that one, it would have been sweet.   In any case, our 9-4 record predicting Browns games this year still beat all of the experts.

This week our Browns return home to take on the Chicago Bears, who find themselves in a fight for the playoffs.

Emotionally, the Bears have an edge, no question about it.   The Browns are coming off a series of extremely deflating losses topped off by the unimaginable defeat last week.

On the plus side for Cleveland:

- This is a home game and will be played in brutally cold weather which will tighten up players on both sides of the ball.

- The Bears have a QB controversy.  Jay Cutler will be under center for Chicago Sunday.  If he's 100% he's an able NFL QB but both fans and perhaps his own teammates lack confidence in Cutler.

- Josh Gordon is emerging as a superstar wideout of the kind not seen since the days of Jerry Rice.   Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden both know that Gordon is the kind of player who can make a QB look like a genius.   Gordon's presence is bound to open up opportunity for the rest of the Brown's O too as the Bears would be fools not to double Gordon all day long.

- Aging veteran running back Willis McGahee is out Sunday.   McGahee has been a real trooper this year.  He shows up every Sunday, works hard, runs hard and does not fumble but his knees just can't do what his courage and mind want to.  McGahee has been a net liability all year.   Perhaps Chris Obannaya or Fozzy Whittaker can step up now once given a chance.

Once again this week all of the pundits are going with 'da Bears.  The Brown Log respectfully disagree

BL Predicts

Browns 20
Bears    17

The BL are 9-4 year to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 13 vs the cheating New England Patriots

The Brown Log are now 9-3 year to date in predicting the outcome of Browns games.   If you stack us up against pundits who are actually paid for a living to cover the Browns you'll find that we are blowing the "experts" away.

Click on this link to see the record of the Plain Dealers staff.   Note that the best record amongst the "pros" is a paltry 7-5.

Week and week out, the so called experts let emotion overrule logic when it comes to our beloved Browns.  Football is an emotional game but more often than not, skills beat out emotion on the field of play.  This week however look for emotion to finally rise up and favor our Browns.  That and another important factor external to the field of play which is the heads up that Houston's Antonio Smith gave the NFL last weekend about the Patriots renewed cheating.

Everybody this week is predicting the Pats to win but there is an interesting bit of information that has leaked into the public's eye.    On December 1st at halftime the disgustingly bad Houston Texans were handling the Pats, leading by a score of 17-7.   In the second half, the Pats miraculously recovered and barely eked out a win, 34-31.   After the game the Texans Antonio Smith accused the Pats of cheating.
If you look at the Patriots team, their talent levels are not in line with their 9-3 record and in the past it is a known fact that the Patriots have employed sophisticated cheating schemes.   If you read what Antonio Smith had to say in the link, it is probable that history is repeating itself and the Patroits have morphed their cheating into new areas such as using electronic surveillance to listen in on opposing coaches.   The technology to do so exists, but perhaps the scumbag Bill Belichick has invested in duplicating what the NSA does to all of us.

I admire that our head coach Chud looks for every edge, week in and week out.   This week, I truly expect Chud to do everything in his power to avoid that the Patriots steal info from the Browns.  Without this edge, expect the Pats to be surprised by the Browns more than once.

Moving onto the players that will have to execute come game time, very thankfully Jason Campbell is starting for the Browns this week, and he has looked good in practice.   Campbell will likely go vertical a bit more than he has this year to break tendency and surprise the Pats.  With Josh Gordon emerging as the premier wideout in the NFL, and the Pats trying to handle Gordon by jamming him at the line of scrimmage but not double teaming him, I expect the Browns to break several big gains.  It is worth noting that the Pats have the worst run defense in the NFL and even the Browns with their pathetic rushing attack should be able to help Campbell by gaining a few yards on the ground.

On defense, our Browns will have their hands full with Tom Brady but look for Brady to struggle a bit if the Patriots are unable to decode information that they steal from the Browns.  The Browns defense will also be significantly better this week.   Speaking of experts who miss important factors, last week, none of the experts, either before or after the Browns game against Jacksonville, understood the negative impact that starting Darius Eubanks had on the Browns chances of winning that game.  Football is a game of 11 players vs 11 players, and if even one of those 11 players is not of NFL quality, it's a MAJOR disadvantage.   I actually isolated on Eubanks every play he was on the field vs the Jags and he consistently made bad reads that put him out of position to make plays against the run.   The handful of times Eubanks put himself in a position to make a play against the run, tiny Eubanks was manhandled by blockers in every case except one where he did make a tackle after a 3 yard gain.  Against the pass he wasn't much better.   When Eubanks was on the field vs Jacksonville, the Jags were able to run and pass the ball with little trouble because they were playing 11 players vs what effectively was only 10 NFL players for the Browns.   This week it looks like Craig Robertson is going to play instead of Eubanks and that is a huge plus for the Browns.

Finally and importantly, football is an emotional game and after Joe Haden's outburst last week and the embarrassing loss to Jacksonville, I expect the Browns to be highly motivated vs New England.


BL Predicts the Browns will pull off an upset

Browns    24
Patriots     16

The BL are 9-3 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts - Game 12 vs Jacksonville

This week's game is the hardest to predict this season because on paper it seems the Browns should win this home game but a few key factors give me pause.

Some factors to consider this week:

* Browns QB Brandon Weeden is 0-4 as a starter.   His counterpart, Chad Henne, is a slightly below average NFL passer.   Being a bit less than mediocre gives Henne a major advantage compared to the disastrous Brandon Weeden.   Sitting on the bench may indeed have given Weeden a few ideas on what he might do different.  For example, look for Weeden to heavily favor Josh Gordon today.   If Weeden simply flings it in Gordon's direction early and often it would be a major step in the right direction. However, expect Jacksonville to be ready.   If the Jaguars scheme to keep the ball away from Gordon it may foil Weeden's one chance at success by creating a turnover or two.   Chad Henne on the other hand will most certainly play more consistently than Weeden.

* The Browns will be playing Darius Eubacks at one of the ILB positions.   In the preseason, Joe Banner cut a number of veteran players in favor of lesser paid rookie free agents.   Those players released included promising 2nd year linebacker James Michael Johnson, who now makes a living for the 9-2 Kansas City Chiefs.   Another was a solid linebacker, LJ Fort.   The Browns saved cash by cutting more experienced players but they gambled that depth wouldn't be needed at LB at any point during the season.  The NFL season is long and here we are in the stretch run and the lack depth at linebacker is suddenly a potential game deciding issue.   Count on the fact that Jacksonville will isolate receivers against Eubanks and test him.  Eubanks was playing safety at Georgia Southern 12 months ago.  A few key plays should decide Sunday's game and I would be surprised if Eubanks is not on the wrong end of more than one big play.

* The home field should not be ignored but I'm guessing that many frustrated Browns fans are going to sit this game out, thus damping down the home field advantage for Cleveland.

* Weather will be cold and nasty.   Bad weather often affects QB's more than anybody and the fact is that Chad Henne has more experience playing in the cold than our own Brandon Weeden.

* Finally I'm sure that Chud would very much like to impress on his bosses that he can lead the Browns to a win at home against a team that the Browns "should" beat.   Look for Chud to try a few trick plays to surprise the Jags.   Chud's ability to get big plays this season by expert use of the element of surprise helped the Browns beat the Vikings and Bills.  I've got a feeling that Jacksonville will be on the lookout and for the first time this season, the tactic will not work.

Tough call but I see the Browns losing a difficult battle against Jacksonville:

BL Predicts:

Jacksonville    17
Browns           10

The BL are 8-3 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 11 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL fans have been predicting the decline of the Steelers since the beginning of the 2013 season and in fact the Steelers started off 2013 with 4 consecutive losses.  However forecasts of doom for the Steelers may have been premature, because since that 0-4 start, the Steelers are actually playing good football and have won 4 of 6 games.   Big Ben once again is playing at Pro Bowl levels and Antonio Brown is his favorite target.   The Steelers offense has been formidable in this 6 game stretch, averaging nearly 23 points per game.

Our Browns on the other hand have a world class defense together with an offense that needs help at nearly every position.   Most disturbing is the Browns utter inability to run the football.  A few weeks ago for instance, the Browns cut Bobby Rainey, who could barely gain 3 yards per carry in Cleveland and for the last few weeks in Tampa Bay, he's looked like a Pro Bowler, reeling off 2 strong games, including a 30 carries for 163 yard performance last week.   The Browns offensive line, simply cannot open holes in the running game, and even if you could reincarnate Jim Thorpe, you'd have a problem getting 4 yards per carry with this line.  

Jason Campbell is a credible NFL backup, but with 3 full games of film, NFL teams are quickly getting reacquainted with his strengths and weaknesses.   Keep Campbell in the pocket and your odds of beating him go up.

I believe in the advantage of playing on the home turf but that has to be coupled with all of the other factors.   Weather will likely be cold and difficult Sunday in Cleveland, adding import to the running game.   The running game is something decisively in the Steelers favor.

Look for a low scoring affair in which the Browns D holds Big Ben and crew to 20 points but the Browns offense will perform well below their own low potential.  A few key plays by Big Ben should turn the tide for the Steelers.  This game should mark the official end of all hope for Browns fans in 2013 so now we can focus our attention on who it is Mike Lombardi will draft in 2014 to finally save our Browns and bring us to the promised land. 

BL Predicts

Steelers 20

Browns 10

The BL are 7-3 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games. 

BL Predicts: Game 10 vs Bengals

Does it seem too good to be true that if the Browns were to win this week, they would find themselves in the drivers seat to gain a playoff spot?  Yes it does seem too good to be true and therefore I will be shocked if the Browns can pull out a win against the Bengals this week.

First let's remember that the home team wins on average 58% of the time in the NFL.   The Bengals are 4-0 at home this year while our Browns are 1-3 on the road.   Weather also promises to be a factor, limiting both teams ability to complete longer passes downfield and raising the importance of the running game.

Beyond that however, I see the Browns losing on Sunday though for one major reason.   Jason Campbell now has two full games under his belt which gives ample game film to the Bengals so they can scheme defensively to counter those aspects of the passing game in which Campbell has been outstanding in his two starts.   In the win against the Ravens, Campbell was consistently able to feel and move around in the pocket buying time that he used to complete numerous short touch passes to his receivers at critical moments against the Ravens.   Those passes led to the Browns win.   A deeper look at the metrics verify this.    75% of Campbell's passes this season have been thrown less than 10 yards in the air, and he's done just about ALL of his damage with those passes.

Look for the Bengals to work very hard to keep Campbell in the pocket and for the Bengals to focus their pass defenders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.   The Bengals will give Campbell some different looks, and try to slow him down.    If the Bengals can slow Campbell down early and force the Browns to try to run the ball, suddenly our resurgent Brownies will look very beatable once again.

A Jason Campbell focused defensive game plan combined with the home crowd advantage should be more than enough to drive yet another dagger into Browns fans hearts.   

BL Predicts

Bengals    24

Browns    16

The Brown Log are 6-3 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games. 

BL Predicts: Week 9 vs Ravens

Football is an emotional game, and division rivalries often come down less to talent and more to which team has an emotional edge.

Look for the Browns to drop another game this week.    The primary driver for a Browns loss really is that the Ravens are due for a big game, if they are to salvage playoff hopes this season. Baltimore are the reigning Super Bowl champs, and I see them being very motivated to drive home a win in Cleveland.  Meanwhile our Browns are due for a letdown. Hope is slipping away and we are already on our third QB of the season.  

If emotional analysis isn't enough for you, remember that the Browns have lost Travis Benjamin, who was one the the teams most important role players. Several key long gains and scores took place on special teams and on offense when Benjamin was on the field. The Brownies lost a major threat that opponents defenses had to account for. It's a seemingly small factor but football can be a game of inches.

BL Predicts

Ravens       23
Browns      13

The Brown Log are 6-2 year to date in predicting who will win Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 8 vs Kansas City

The Kansas City Chiefs are a good example of why the Marty Schottenheimer formula wins games.   Andy Reid has the Chiefs using a very Marty like ball control running and short passing game, thus giving opponents offenses less time to score points.   KC's offense averages over 32 minutes possession per game.  It's a pretty basic idea but if the other team doesn't possess the ball, it's a lot harder to score.

The other very Marty-like characteristic of this KC squad is that they do not make mistakes.  They turn the ball over rarely as witnessed by their +11 turnover ratio that leads the entire NFL. 

KC are on a roll right now.  Jamaal Charles is grinding out yards and Alex Smith keeps the chains moving with his short passes. 

Our Browns are a Jekyll and Hyde team.  With Brandon Weeden at the controls we are probably the worst team in the NFL but with Brian Hoyer our Browns looked like contenders.   With Jason Campbell now leading the way, we don't really know which kind of team our Browns will be.

Campbell looked very mediocre in the pre season but he's an experienced veteran who knows that preventing mistakes will be a key if the Browns have any chance to beating the Chiefs.  Furthermore Campbell adds a dimension to the Browns offense.   He can scramble for yardage.   I see Campbell scrambling early in the game for a big gain or two.  

The Browns will make a respectable showing, but when deciding if the Browns can upset the Chiefs or not, I keep coming back to the fact that when Marty coached our Browns they almost always won the games they were supposed to.   I think the Browns will play a very tight game on Sunday but with Andy Reid playing Marty ball in KC, it's hard to imagine his team losing this week.

BL Predicts:

Kansas City Chiefs     20

Cleveland Browns      17

The BL are 5-2 this year in predicting the winner of Browns games. 

Brandon Weeden leaving it all out on the field

Brandon Weeden gave Chud little choice but to bench him when he attempted The Flip II vs Green Bay.  With Weeden on the bench, all we're left with are these precious memories of Brandon Weeden leaving it all out there on the field of play.