BL Predicts: Week Eight vs Houston

It is officially panic time in Cleveland. Naturally the Browns are still in the hunt at 3-4, and have a chance to be a .500 team at the halfway point of the season, something that has not happened in ages. So why all the gloom and doom? I think nearly 50 years without a championship has simply clouded our ability to reason.

I will go on the record today and exclaim "stay calm". In spite of an offensive line that has two or three players who could not start for any other team in the NFL and in spite of having very little talent at WR this team has competed in nearly every game this season. Furthermore Peyton Hillis has managed to go from hero to villian in less than 8 games. Holding himself out of a game he could have played in put him in a bad position with fans in working class Cleveland. But the end of the love affair took place last Monday when Hillis blew off a commitment to attend a children's event he has promised to attend.

On the plus side, the Browns defense is in the top tier in the NFL which means that on any given Sunday this team can win and finally, for those of you who might doubt Pat Shurmur, I really suggest you listen to the man during his press conferences. He is a straight shooter and has a clear plan for this team. He also has the support of a skilled front office, it is only a matter of time before this guy is a winner and that time might well come this season.

So what do I think about today's game? I predict a shocking Browns win. As troubled as the Browns are right now, so are the Texans. They have key players missing due to injury and are 2-2 in the last 4 weeks. Look for the Browns D to come through big and even put a few points on the board today. Finally, today may be the game in which Carlton Mitchell finally contributes with some long gains. He will get a chance, that is likely

BL Predicts
Browns 20
Texans 13

The BL is 4-3 on the season in predicting Sunday's result

BL Predicts: Week Seven vs San Francisco

On the road vs a good Niners team this week. After the total disappearance of the Browns offense last week it is difficult to imagine anything other than a Browns loss this week.

BL Predicts

Browns 13
49ers 24

The BL is 3-3 this year on the prediction front.

Congratulations Coach Paterno

Coach Joe Paterno yesterday became the winningest head coach in division I college football history, surpassing Eddie Robinson with his 409th career win.

There is only one question left to be answered, "Is Joe Paterno actually still alive"?

Given some of the conspiracy theories out there that folks accept, is it really that hard to digest the idea? All I can say is that it's mightly fishy that Paterno gets hidden in the press box during games. Who knows, maybe Paterno will be the next head coach of the Browns.

BL Predicts: Week Six vs Seattle

In what is a must win game if the Browns are to hold onto playoff hopes, this Sunday is a major test. Pat Shurmur is starting to see how serious Browns football is to northern Ohioans. Holmgren had to step up and take a bit of the heat off Shurmur with a press conference earlier this week so that Shurmur could concentrate on getting ready for Seattle. At the same press conference Holmgren stated that Shurmur would not both head coach and offensive coordinator in 2012 so even Holmgren is starting to send some signals to his new head coach that while we have some good excuses, it is time to put those behind and get on with getting some results.

Optimism is quickly running out and patience wearing thin in winning starved Cleveland. There are a lot of negatives we can latch onto this week, with Hillis and Haden both likely out and morale among the troops apparently low. Still the home team wins 57% of the time in the NFL and this week lets hope that the home field advantage is enough for the Browns to pull out a W.

BL Predicts: Evan Moore has a big game and the Browns win

Browns 24
Seahawks 16

BL Predicts: Week Five vs Oakland

The Brown Log are 2-2 this season in game predictions after not only predicting the Tennessee game correctly but also darn near nailing the final score. After the drubbing at home at the hands of a Tennessee squad that many fans do not respect, prognosticators are nearly universal in predicting that the Browns will get beat soundly today in Oakland.

The Brown Log felt that the facts in the run up to the Tennessee game pointed clearly to the Browns being soundly defeated. So what are the facts on the table for today's Raiders game?

- Oakland are 3-2 and have won vs the Jets, Texans and beat Denver at Mile Hile, which is never easy. Furthermore the Browns have never done well vs Oakland on the road and we all know that the home team wins 57% of the time in the NFL.

However unlike the Tennessee game I see many factors working in the Browns favor this week:

- First and foremost, the Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranking near the bottom of the league both against the run and pass. If you want further evidence of just how significant of a mess the Raiders find themselves in, look no further than the fact that the Raiders traded this week for Seahawks back up linebacker Aaron Curry, a former first round bust and after all of three days to get ready, Curry will be starting today against the Browns.

- While the Raiders have one of the leagues top offenses, their success is due in strong part to a rushing game near the top of the NFL is yards per game. If the Browns prepare well, our 4-3 defense should have a chance to hold it's own against the Raiders rushing game.

- While the Browns D will be weakened by the likely loss of Joe Haden, the Raiders QB Jason Campbell is still prone to mistakes. One or two turnovers can change the complexion of a game quickly.

- The Browns have had two full weeks to prep for the Raiders while the Raiders during their one week of prep have had to deal with a historical distraction, the passing of their leader Al Davis, one of the great figures in NFL history. While the Raiders may get an emotional lift from the desire to play well during the week that their Hall of Fame President passed away, there can be no doubt that their game preparation had to be negatively affected. There simply was less time available than in a normal week for Raiders management and coaches to get ready for this game.

- This game is the real debut of the Cleveland squad. Because of the lockout, our team and it's new coach had four short weeks to install completely new systems on offense and defense. As a result we've seen Pat Shurmur continue to evaluate the entire roster in the first 4 games. These two weeks off have allowed Shurmur time to assess the first four weeks of the season and make some decisions. Look to see more of Evan Moore, Greg Little and Peyton Hillis today. Watch for the Browns to better balance the run and the pass and look in particular for Ben Watson to have a big day.

- The big negative for our Browns is the likely absence of Joe Haden today, who is quickly becoming a reliable shut down corner.

Bottom line: Look for the Browns to score often and shock the NFL today with a win in a high scoring shootout.

BL Predicts:
Browns 31
Raiders 28

Peyton Hillis' agent takes the blame

Sounds like a lame excuse Peyton Hillis' agent takes responsibility for advising not to play sick

BL Predicts: Week Four vs. Tennessee

Factors to be considered in advance of today's Browns vs Titans game:

- The Browns offense struggled last week against a mediocre at best Miami defense. It is clear that the West Coast offense the Browns are implementing takes a lot more than 7 weeks to install. In the West Coast offense, receiver and quarterback both must make reads and arrive to the same conclusion, often in a split second. Against the Dolphins, there were several occasions in which Colt made a decision to throw to one area only to find his receiver take another angle.

- The Titans defense is one of the best in the NFL.

-Colt McCoy is tied with Chad Henne for taking the most QB hits this season with 21. As a result at times McCoy throws off balance and falls down when barely touched. He is getting a bit punch drunk and this is a by product of an offensive line that has two signficant holes in it, left guard and right tackle. Tony Pashos is back at right tackle today and Jason Pinkston is steadily improving at left guard. Will it be enough? Probably not, especially when you consider that our Pro Bowl left tackle Joe Thomas, will probably play but is listed as questionable due to a knee injury.

-There were signs last week that folks were not happy with Peyton Hillis' decision not to play. One need not read between the lines too much to interpret this in comments made by Pat Shurmur and Colt McCoy. Signs of dissension? Perhaps. One of the reasons that football games are hard to predict is that emotions play a larger role in football than any other sport. When two well prepared teams face each other, that extra inch you need often falls into place if every player is pulling in the same direction. Will a bit of rancor amongst the Browns troops cut into the teams spirit? It's possible, we'll have to watch and see today.

- Matt Hasselbeck is one of the hottest QBs in the NFL right now.

- Titans RB Chris Johnson got a late start after a contract hold out and has performed poorly in his first three games. All signs point to him being healthy, his timing is off. Game 4 could be the point that he puts it all together.

All of the above pointed out, the Browns came together last week at the last minute and performed when they needed to and that will give them confidence that they can build on. Finally, the home team wins nearly 58% of the time in the NFL.

So what do I think about today's outcome? While I believe that this team is going to improve every week and I believe after game eleven the Browns will still be in serious playoff contention, I also believe this week is going to be a learning experience for our young Browns. They are going to learn that it is not enough to avoid mistakes to win games against good teams, you also have to execute all game long. One thing is clear, with so many factors potentially working against the Browns today, if they come together and beat Tennessee, it will be a result of a well laid game plan and extra work this week.

BL Predicts: Today should be a long day for the Browns but a key turning point on their way to jelling as a team.

Browns 13
Titans 27

The winning organization

The Browns lost game one this season to Cincinnati for many reasons and without doubt one of those reasons was the poor job done by Pat Shurmur in his first game as an NFL coach. You could even hear in Shurmur's voice in the post game that he felt the burden of a job done poorly. His team made too many mistakes, especially with needless penalties and his defense got caught off guard and were still in their huddle as the Bengals quick snapped their way to the winning score. Does one bad game for a first year coach mean he is not up to the job? Of course not. Pat Shurmur is a relatively young, and obvioulsy skilled coach.

What is different about this Browns organization compared to those we have seen in the last 40 years is that the Browns President, Mike Holmgren, is not only a business man, but he understands first hand both the general managers role and the head coaching job. I can imagine that on Sunday evening following the Bengals loss, meetings were held with Shurmur and Holmgren to review the areas that needed attention following that game. Holmgren surely sought Shurmur's opinion on what went wrong, shared with Shurmur points that perhaps Shurmur did not see, and gave him some guidance on how to steer clear of those issues. The result was clear, mistakes in execution and game tactics were fixed and the Browns went on to win their next two games. Had Shurmur been left on his own without a boss who could both push him and also put things in perspective, our Browns could easily be 1-2 or 0-3 by now.

In many sports organizations, the senior executive does not have operational experience in critical roles. In the business world, when you have a young manager, he may have all the potential in the world, but he may be slow to face down problems he has no experience in managing. It's exactly the same in sports. A potentially great but young coach like Shurmur has a much greater chance of success if there is an experienced, mature and wise executive that he reports to, who can probe and assist in his development.

The Browns organization, led by Mike Holmgren is therefore capable of righting the ship quickly and efficiently and this is the main reason that in spite of being let down so many times in the past, Browns fans can justifiably start feeling optimistic about the 2011 season and the longer term future of the team.

BL Live Blog: live from Cleveland

BL Predicts: Week Three vs Miami

Browns fans should be concerned this week if for no other reason than the fact that the Brown Log is predicting a victory. So far this season the Brown Log is 0-2 in predicting the outcome. Our only saving grace is that we are not alone. Tony Grossi of the Plain Dealer has also chalked up zero correct predictions this year.

Another source of concern this week is the fact that the Dolphins, at 0-2, have to be considering this game a must win. Emotions play a big role in football, hence should Miami come out with a do or die kamikaze mentality, the Browns are going to have their hands full.

What tilts the prediction for me is the fact that ex Browns "offensive" coordinator Brian Daboll, is now Miami's offensive coordinator. Daboll has lousy people skills and in his tenure in Cleveland he also demonstrated that he's not a very good coach. Rest easy Browns fans, tactically the Dolphins on offense are going to make mistakes. Add in the home field advantage and today should be an easy win for the Browns.

BL Predicts
Browns 31
Dolphins 17

BL Predicts: Week Two vs Colts

Week one was a major disappointment for our Browns however it is time to put things in perspective. The lock out gave the Browns a mere 4 weeks to put new systems in place on both offense and defense. Furthermore they had to do so with an array of new talent. There was a lot of bad points but also many good ones.

On defense, among the very positive points were the All Pro performance of Joe Haden, who together with rookie DT Phil Taylor give the Browns defense a major boost. On D the major points of concern were the disappointing step backwards taken by TJ Ward last Sunday and Chris Gocong's shaky week 1 performance.

On offense there were fewer signs of life. First off, it is clear that our receiving corps are still not NFL caliber, second the offensive line has too many new players, learning a new system. Rookie Jason Pinkston is playing guard for the first time in his life. I made a point to watch Pinkston on Sunday. What I saw is an athlete clearly up the challenge physically, Pinkston is going to be in the NFL a long time. However, Pinkston is playing a new position and in particular on passing downs, he had trouble recognizing stunts and blitzes. Finally, Colt McCoy, whom Pat Shurmur refused to annoint as team captain, showed Shurmur that perhaps his doubts are well placed. McCoy looked less than razor sharp both as a leader and a passer. I still believe in Colt and I always remind folks that Brian Sipe had some pretty bad games early on in his career, but I too was left shaking my head on the play towards the end of the game where Colt let a wet football slip out of his hands, resulting in a three stooges like interception. Colt, if you cannot handle a little rain son, then December in Cleveland is not going to be much fun for you.

Special teams were fine, thanks to always prepared Josh Cribbs.

So what is next against Indianapolis? Probably another tough loss. Road games are always difficult in the NFL and even without Peyton Manning, the Colts are going to be a handful for our Browns. It's going to be a tough start to the season though I keep reminding people that the Kardiac Kids started their magical season out 0-2 in 1980, and I think we will be off to an 0-2 start in 2011.

BL Predicts:

Colts 27
Browns 17

BL Live Blog: very disappointing loss

Lots of mistakes, a whole lot needs to be fixed

BL Live Blog: disappointing

Browns couldn't protect Colt when the game was on the line and McCoy was unable to rise above it all and scramble or create.