BL Predicts: Week Eleven vs Carolina

On the upside.
The Browns are at home.
Browns face 1-9 Carolina that will be led by a rookie QB who is 0-4 as a starter while completing 48% of his passes.
Jake Delhomme played for Carolina last year and therefore should have some ideas about how to attack that offense.

On the downside:
The Browns are banged up with McCoy and Fujita out, and key players Josh Cribbs, Shaun Rogers, Ben Watson being doubtful. Furthermore the Browns are coming off a devastating loss last week vs Jacksonville and could be ripe for a major emotional letdown.

Even considering the injuries and a potential letdown, the Browns should pull this one out

BL Predicts

Browns 24
Carolina 21

The Brown Log is 4-6 year to date in predicting the winner.

BL Predicts: Week Ten vs Jacksonville

The Browns are banged up and on the road but after 4 games against the leagues best team, the Brown Log believes beating Jacksonville won't be easy, but the Browns are up to the task. Look for Ryan's D to confuse the mediocre Jacksonville offense and look for Colt to really explode in the first game he will play against an average D.

BL Predicts

Browns 30
Jacksonville 10

The BL has a 4-5 record year to date

BL Predicts: Week Nine vs the Jets

This blog has missed the last two upset wins, predicting the Browns to lose against the favored Saints and Patriots. This week the Browns are still underdogs but they are playing at home and they are on a hot streak. The wins against the Saints and Pats both had large elements of surprise, as the Browns coaches used winning and often surprise tactics to take it to their favored opponents. My gut says that this week it's back to reality. There won't be surprises and perhaps young Colt might finally start to make some rookie mistakes. Other factors are that the emotional state of the team might be a bit down after the scary lockerroom collapse of Marcus Benard, and he likely won't play which will hurt the Browns ability to put heat on Mark Sanchez. It will probably be close but look for the Browns luck to run out this week.

BL Predicts

Browns 15
Jets 27

The Brown Log is 3-5 year to date on predictions.

BL Predicts: Week Eight vs the Patriots

It is difficult to imagine the Browns coming up with a gameplan that will allow the team to overcome the talent gap they have vs the Patriots.

Putting pressure on Tom Brady is the key but that won't be easy. The Browns have also had an extra week to prepare, and that may give young Colt McCoy the edge he needs to put the ball in the endzone a few times.

Hard to imagine a W no matter in spite of the afterglow of the Saints win and a long bye week.

BL Predicts

Patroits 35
Browns 17

The Brown Log's record year to date is 3-4

BL Predicts: Week Seven vs. the Saints

Once again, an easy game to predict as the Browns more or less have every factor possible working against them this Sunday in New Orleans. Despite serious limitations at the wide receiver position, in the defensive backfield and a lack of depth on the defensive line, the team is playing together and the coaches, in particular Rob Ryan, continue to come up with tactics that opponents have trouble with. This week, the best we can hope for is another good showing that comes up just short of the W.


BL Predicts:

New Orleans Saints 23
Cleveland Browns 10

The Brown Log's season record now stands at 3-3

BL Predicts: Week Six vs. the Steelers

There is no rational reason to choose anyone other than Pittsburgh to win this Sunday.
It's likely Colt's NFL debut, so the Browns go with a rookie QB going against Big Ben in his grand return.
We are on the road and have nowhere near the depth the Steelers.

Looks like a long day is in store.

BL Predicts

Steelers 26
Browns 9


BL is 2-3 so far this year, which is better than the Brownies at 1-4. We should get back to .500 this week

BL Predicts: Week Five vs. the Falcons

Sometimes it's useless to think too much. The fact is that the Browns have almost always kicked the Falcons asses (Browns are 10-2 lifetime vs the Falcons) and this years matchup will be played at home.

BL Predicts

Browns 27
Falcons 21

BL year to date prediction record 2-2

BL Predicts: Week Four vs the Bengals

Predicting NFL games is a mechanical exercise. Each week we consider and add up the following factors:

- the home team wins 57% of the games in the NFL, that's worth about 3 points

- compare the talent of the team's healthy players and their ability to play and execute the game as a team.

- Look for emotional factors that might give advantage to one team or the other.

Week 4 against Cincinnati stacks up as follows

- Browns are at home so they start with 3 points in the bag
- The Bengals are a balanced and talented team, capable of executing well at each position. The Browns have no talent at WR, a weak right side of the offensive line, a good TE, good QB's and average running backs. On D, the Browns appear highly motivated behind the creative leadership of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, albeit the Browns lack depth and talent on the defensive line. On talent let's give the Bengals a 7 point advantage on the Brownies.
- Emotionally, there is a bad sign for Cleveland. This week, Running back Jerome Harrison publicly expressed displeasure with Coach Mangini. A veteran player like Harrison won't normally openly rebel against the coach unless other players on the team share his opinion. Harrison's complaint may indeed be indicative of internal dissension in the Browns clubhouse. So far the Browns have played well in 2010 every game, right up until the moment that they have a gut check, and then they fall apart. Teams have a collective character, and the Browns offensive character is, well, offensive. Gauging this factor is very difficult and that's why not too many people get rich betting on NFL games. The best we can do is look at the clues and this week it looks gloomy. In football more than any sport, one man can lift an entire team out of the abyss with great effort, but the Browns only playmaker is Josh Cribbs and so far this season teams are doing everything they can to assure that Cribbs doesn't have the opportunity to lift the Browns spirits. Give the Bengals another 5 points for the emotional edge factor.

I hate to say it, but all signs point to an 0-4 start for the Browns. Once again I hope we are wrong.......

BL Predicts:
Bengals 21
Browns 12

BL predicts: Week Three vs Baltimore

The Brown Log have two predictions this week:

- First prediction is that if the Browns arrive to 0-4, Holmgren will fire Mangini and replace him with Rob Ryan

- Second prediction is relative to this Sunday's matchup at Baltimore. Ryan's defense is coming together as a group. TJ Ward gets better every week and Ryan always has a variation up his sleeve that forces opponents to make adjustments.

On the other side of the ball however, our offense will have to face the Ravens who have yet to give up a touchdown all season. Seneca Wallace will likely once again take the reigns but the Browns simply don't have any playmakers that can step up and help Wallace move the ball. Frustratingly, Mangini puts Josh Cribbs on the field with the offense about 5 plays per game while our regular wideouts simply are unable to get open. It's hard to imagine fumble prone Peyton Hillis doing much, while Jerome Harrison is fighting an injury.

I think both teams will struggle to score, but the Ravens in the end, should get past the Browns. The bad news with a loss would be a horrible 0-3 start, the good news would be that we would be one step closer to ending the Mangini era in Cleveland.

In any case, here's hoping Rob Ryan's crew dominate the Ravens and our Browns sneak out of Baltimore with a W.

BL Predicts

Ravens 19
Browns 13

BL predicts: Week Two vs Kansas City

The home team wins 57% of all games in the NFL and last week the Brown Log wrestled with whether or not to pick the Browns to win on the road. In the end, optimism won me over and I made a bad choice. Cold water in the face!

This week we are faced with a similar dilemma. With the luster of a wonderful but meaningless preseason having worn off in 30 ugly minutes of football in Tampa Bay, the Brown Log pendulum has swung from glorious optimism to total pessimism.

What was most scary in the Browns first game were the following:

-The deer in the headlights look on Jake Delhomme's face after his first interception. Delhomme looked like every ounze of self confidence just flushed out of his face.

-The inability of the Brown's outside receivers to do much of anything. As Rich Gannon pointed out on the broadcast Sunday, even the long TD pass to Mohamed Massaquoi was effectively a blown play by Tampa's Free Safety, who had read the play perfectly and took a bad angle to the ball. I really doubt with Eric Berry roaming the secondary for KC that the Browns will be able to bust anything deep on the Chiefs.

-Peyton Hillis has a very serious case of fumble-itis, and if he cannot hold onto the ball, he really has no value to the Browns (although I bet he is a fine human being)

-The Browns did well in the first half but they kept Tampa off balance mainly by confusing the Bucs with tricks. We threw a bunch of knuckleballs at Tampa. 2 man or 1 man defensive lines and zone blitzes from every angle, Wildcat offense a few times, Seneca Wallace and Josh Cribbs on the field at the same time for a play or two. But in the second half Tampa adjusted and the Browns were unable to do anything. By the end of the game the Browns D was back to a standard 3 man line most of the time and the Wildcat disppeared as Mangini hoped to drain the clock and hold onto his 4 point lead.

With Delhomme out this week, Seneca Wallace might give the Browns a charge, but do look for KC to really stack the line of scrimmage up with 8 men in the box. It could be a long day for our Brownies.

The only factors that cause me to think twice are the fact that KC played on Monday Night last week and so they have a day less rest than the Browns plus we are playing at home after all......

I hope I am wrong this week but I think it will be a very long day for Cleveland

BL Predicts

KC 24
Cleveland 12

BL Predicts: Week One vs Tampa Bay

Playing on the road in the NFL is NEVER easy, I don't care who you line up against. That stated, this Sunday's opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers appear to be struggling with inexperience and lack of depth.

The Browns defense must pressure young Tampa QB Josh Freeman, something they've struggled with all pre-season. My guess is we will see the Browns aggresively blitzing in the right moments and Tampa will be hard pressed to protect Freeman.

The Browns should be able to execute against Tampa's D which will likely pay less attention to the Browns inexperienced and unproven wideouts, loading the middle of the field to stop the run and short passing game of Delhomme. Our bet is Delhomme will be able to find spots in the short passing game and move the ball.

An early key to get an idea of how Tampa will fare can be had by keeping a close eye on Buccaneers new defensive linemen, first round pick Gerard McCoy and second round pick Brian Price (both are pictured below). If McCoy and Price are disruptive the Browns will have trouble running and passing upfield and that would spell big trouble and a long day for the Browns.

Game keys
- Pressuring the QB: Slight edge to Tampa Bay
- QB decision making: Strong edge to the Browns


BL Predicts: Browns 23 Tampa Bay 17