BL Predicts: Week 2 vs New Orleans - Showing your hand...

First, let us be clear about one thing:  we believe Mike Pettine is a good coach.  However he's not a miracle worker.   For the Browns to put up a winning season with yet another new coach, yet another round of dramatic player turnover and yet another offensive and defensive system is tantamount to asking for a miracle.

There were positive signs in the Browns season opening loss to the Steelers.  Foremost, Pettine seems to have chosen players that have a competitive edge and will fight for every yard.   If the Browns hang with Pettine for 5 years or more I think his leadership will pay off.   If…..

On the negative side, after a preseason of hiding many facets of their offense the Browns finally had to show their hand.   Their offense was effective in the second half against the Steelers as they were effective running the ball and passing off of play action.  Unfortunately, the Browns are not yet far enough along in Shanahan's offense.   I believe they pretty much showed everything they have against Pittsburgh.  Now that we've shown our hand, it won't be difficult for New Orleans to be fully prepared for whatever the Browns O can throw at them Sunday.

A lot of pundits see the Browns winning on Sunday.   Football is an emotional game and with a break or two anything can happen but what I foresee is a long day in store for our Brownies.   New Orleans has a very talented team but they were defeated in Atlanta by an extremely athletic group of receivers led by a top flight QB.   The Browns have neither and New Orleans will have a chip on their shoulder Sunday.

Look for an ugly day for our local hero's and another lesson for Jimmy Haslam in the price a team pays for nonstop turnover

BL Predicts

Browns         17
Saints            34

the BL are 1-0 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: 2014 Season opener vs Steelers. History & experience

History and experience are sufficient to foretell the result of tomorrow's season opener vs Mike Tomlin's Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is in his 8th year as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Mike Pettine is in his 8th week of full time coaching of this team, the Cleveland Browns.

Since 2009, Tomlin, his staff and his key player leadership like Big Ben, have played a defense coached by Mike Pettine 6 times and their record against Pettine's teams is 5-1.   Tomorrow's Browns game therefore is old hat for them.  They know exactly what they have in store, they've been there before.   The Steelers week of preparation for the Browns has been about "refining" tactics of an existing plan to use their offense to attack Pettine's D.   Same story for Tomlin's defense.  They have a feeling for what they'll face against Kyle Shanahan because they've been there and done that.   

Meanwhile, Mr. Pettine and Mr. Shanahan have had to focus on teaching 53 players the basics of their own schemes.  

it promises to be yet another gloomy day in Browns history as we pay the price for constant turnover of management, coaches, players and playbooks.

BL Predicts:

Pittsburgh       24

Cleveland       13

It would be a positive development if NCAA Universities drop football

The other day, I heard an interview in which the President emeritus of Northwestern, Henry Bienen, made a not so veiled threat that if unions are permitted for college football players, Northwestern may drop football.  

I'd like to point out that under the right circumstances, should institutions of higher education drop football, it would be an extremely positive development for the vast majority of interests.  

First things first, our Congress would need to remove the NFL's anti trust exemption, thus allowing free market principals to rule.  Entrepreneurs and their capital, would then be free to create new professional football leagues that could replace the current university football system.  The result would be thousands of jobs that pay a solid wage to football players and team staffs who today participate in today's college athletic system.

Unions are needed for NCAA players because today players have absolutely no voice and it's clear that this fact is to their extreme detriment.  Football is a violent game that consumes bodies over time.  I remember in the not so distant past, a college football season was comprised of 10 games.  Next years playoff system means that some colleges will play up to 15 games.   That means more career ending injuries.  Adding more games over the years was done without a single player having a voice in that decision.

Today, the NCAA treats football players with disdain and disrespect.   Look at the price tag on the below Ohio State jersey with Terrell Pryor's number 2 on it.  This photo was taken at Christmas 2010 in a sporting goods store.  $80 and not a cent went to Terrell Pryor.  It's a joke.

When Michael Dell was a University student studying business and he started selling computers from his dorm room, nobody stopped him from profiting because he hadn't graduated.   It's obscene abuse for the NCAA to profit from athlete's images but prevent them from doing the same.  Why shouldn't Nike have been able to pay Johnny Football his millions while he still was playing at Texas A&M??

Should the NCAA continue to insist on perpetuating the current system of college athletics, I say let the schools get back to the business of educating students and let's permit the free market to provide us with additional options when it comes to football.   

Joe Banner - How to increase the bottom line by juggling the bottom of the roster.

To understand why Joe Banner cut players like JMJ and LJ Fort last year, one need only look at the below chart.

In 2013, the savings by using an undrafted rookie free agent making the minimum instead of a 3rd year player making the minimum was $140,000 per player.

There is a $75,000 savings by substituting a rookie free agent for a one year veteran who makes the league minimum.  

Before game 1 of the 2013 season, Banner cut veterans like Trevin Wade, Brandon Jackson, Kellen Davis, Brad Smelley, JMJ and LJ Fort in favor of a group of undrafted rookie free agents.  These cuts added over $1,000,000 to Jimmy Haslam's bottom line.

Wade went on to perform well for the playoff New Orleans Saints.   JMJ for the playoff Chiefs.  Both could have helped the Browns win instead of lose games like Jacksonville, where rookie free agent LB Darius Eubanks was abused vs the run or New England, where special teams and rookie play hurt the Browns badly.

Joe Banner is President of the Browns because he's very skilled at maximizing the bottom line through careful management of player selection.  Banner's view, supported by yes man Mike Lombardi, is that the bottom of roster players are spare parts, and one reason Chud is gone is that he did not buy into that system, especially over the course of the season as he witnessed the price the Browns paid for cutting quality second year and veteran players.

BL Predicts: Super Bowl 48 - A study in contrasts

Super Bowl 48 offers up a couple of interesting subplots with fascinating contrasts:

- A traditional pocket passer, perhaps the greatest in the history of the game, Peyton Manning, vs a new wave QB, Russell Wilson, who can gain yards with his arm or his legs.

- Denver's great offense vs Seattle's great defense.

I think the game will come down to experience vs inexperience.   Not a single player on the Seahawks has played in the pressure pot called the Super Bowl.   Denver isn't exactly loaded with Super Bowl experience either.  Only four of their players have been in the big game, but one is their leader, Peyton Manning.  No question, Manning understands what the Seahawks are trying to do on defense and will guide his teammates to exploit Seattle's holes.

In what may be the last championship won by a traditional pocket passer for a long time, look for the Bronco's and Peyton Manning to win by a comfortable margin over Seattle

BL Predicts

Denver        27
Seattle         14

The BL's 2013 season playoff prediction record is 7-3 to date.

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs, week 3 - Divisional Championships

New England at Denver

Peyton Manning and the Broncos will be ready for the Patriots, who are a far weaker team when playing on the road where it is much harder for Bill Belichick to steal opponents plays.  Without inside information, the weaknesses in the Patriots game emerge.   They are weak in particular in the defensive backfield and Peyton Manning will exploit those holes.   I see this game as a runaway win for the Broncos.  

Denver              35
New England     17


SF 49ers at Seattle

In what should be one of the best games of the season, two evenly matched teams will fight it out.   Both sport fantastic defenses and have offenses led by mobile quarterbacks.   Seattle should focus on establishing a passing game in order to open up the run.  Seattle was not able to pass very well against the Saints and a result the score was closer than it should have been.  The Seahawks must establish the air game against the 49ers if they're to have any chance of moving the ball on the ground.   Look for Russell Wilson to step up with a Pro Bowl caliber performance and Seattle will win by a thin margin

Seattle          24
SF 49ers      20

The BL were 2-2 last week and now have a 5-3 record in this season's NFL Playoff predictions.

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs - Week 2

The BL got off to a decent start last week, correctly predicting 3 out of 4 matches.    Only Andy Dalton and the Bengals let us down.  On to week 2 of sensational NFL playoff games!

New Orleans at Seattle

Home field advantage and Seattle's incredibly fast defense will make life hard on Drew Brees.   Russell Wilson proved last year that he knows how to step it up in big games.   Unless something unforeseen like a key injury takes place, Seattle has this game going away.

Seattle              27
New Orleans   17


Indianapolis Colts at New England

The X factor in this game may well be the Colts signing this week of former Patriots WR, Deion Branch, who played 89 games for the Patriots in his career.   Branch may not be completely up to speed with the cheating methods that Bill Belichick is employing this season but he should be able to give some insights to the Colts into how to avoid being victimized by Belichick's illegal schemes.   Leave no stone unturned is what the Colts were saying when they signed Branch and I like that.   The Pats are actually not a very talented team.  Their receivers are mediocre and their defense is horrendous but Tom Brady is a good QB and Bill Belichick knows how to find advantages for his team, be they legal or not.

Plain and simple, the Colts are a better team than the Pats and I see them overcoming all obstacles in their way on the road this weekend.

Colts           30
Pats             20


San Francisco at Carolina 

Many pundits are picking San Fran this weekend because they refuse to accept that Cam Newton is the most gifted QB in the entire NFL.   Why they have that viewpoint is baffling to me because all you have to do is watch to guy to see an arm like no other in the game together with leadership that is world class.   And he can run too, which in the NFL playoffs of 2014 is proving to be a necessary skill.   I love Harbaugh too, he's the best coach in the game but I think Cam will carry the Panthers on his back to the Conference finals.

Carolina          24
SF 49ers          23


San Diego at Denver

I was in the stands for the Bengals vs Chargers game last Sunday.   The Chargers didn't really beat the Bengals, I think the Bengals killed themselves.    Without Andy Dalton's turnovers the Chargers would have been in a battle for their lives.   Peyton Manning is "not" Andy Dalton and the Denver Broncos are not the Cincinnati Bengals.   San Diego is nothing more than a small obstacle in Peyton Manning's march to the Super Bowl.   Forget it SD, you're going home.

Denver         42
San Diego    17

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs - Week 1

As is now tradition, the BL will take aim at predicting the winners in the NFL playoffs each week.

This weeks games include:

KC Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts:  The Chiefs, under Andy Reid, dramatically improved their team this year and one key was playing Marty Schottenheimer football.    Control possession by running and short high percent passes.   Eat clock, don't turn the ball over and play rock solid D.   This is a proven winning formula but Marty proved that in the playoffs you have to be ready to roll the dice, or you risk losing.   I'm going with Andrew Luck and the Colts at home.

Colts   27
Chiefs 17

New Orleans at Philadelphia:  In one year, Chip Kelly proved the naysayers wrong and turned the Eagles around with his innovative offensive schemes and his focus on factors such as nutrition and conditioning.   His players responded with a division title.   The emergence of Nick Foles is also a major feather in Kelly's cap.  New Orleans however are a more talented and experienced team.  Playoff experience at QB is the major factor in favor of the Saints.  The Eagles fans will make it hard on Brees but  I think Drew Brees and his crew will be more than ready.  I'm going with the road team here

Saints    33
Eagles   27


San Diego at Cincinnati:   San Diego is the weakest team in the playoffs going against a very balanced Cincinnati team that hasn't lost at home all year.  I see the Bengals getting past San Diego in the cold harsh weather at home.

Bengals    20
Chargers  10


San Francisco at Green Bay:  I see this game as by far the hardest to predict.   First and foremast the forecast is for the "HIGH" temperature tomorrow to be -4 degrees.   The brutal cold makes it unlikely that we see a lot of offense so we're probably going to see a close game in which turnovers may be a key.   On paper, Green Bay barely snuck into the playoffs while SF were one of the strongest teams in the league, but Green Bay is a different team with Aaron Rodgers at QB.  The return of Rodgers at full strength is a major consideration.   On the other hand, I like San Fran's running game including the ability of their QB Colin Kaepernick to run the ball, and I think the Niners have the best coach in the NFL.   Flip a coin here but I'm going to bet that Kaepernick will avoid mistakes and make a few big plays on the ground and the 49ers are going to squeak by the Pack.

49ers     13
Packers  10

BL Predicts: Game 16 Browns vs Steelers

Not much analysis needed this week, as the Browns close out yet another losing season.

- Browns are on the road and have nothing to play for other than perhaps a better position in the draft.

- Steelers are fighting for yet another playoff birth.

- Browns are quite banged up with numerous key players either out or at risk of missing this weeks game.


BL Predicts:

Steelers      31
Browns      17


The BL are 10-5 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 15 vs Jets

Yet another losing season for the Cleveland Browns is winding up.  All we are left to reflect on is that the Browns keep losing year after year after year.

It torture to think about this but last year the Kansas City Chiefs won 1 game and they are now one of the best teams in the AFC.  The Philadelphia Eagles last year won 4 games and now they're in the playoff hunt.  Our Browns won 5 games last year and they'll be lucky to tie that total this year.

Our best chance to get back to the magical 5 win total is Sunday against the Jets.   Hard game to predict because the Jets aren't all that much better than Cleveland.  But the Browns are on the road, banged up, and coming off a series of extremely deflating defeats.

I could see Josh Gordon having a huge game and it's not that far fetched to imagine Geno Smith giving Cleveland a few intercepts.   But winning on the road is hard, especially without Jordan Cameron and possibly without Joe Haden.

I'm going with the home team this week.

BL Predicts:

Jets 23
Browns 16


The BL are 9-5 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 14 vs 'da Bears

For 58 minutes last week, the Brown Log was the only prognosticator on earth that had correctly foreseen a Browns victory over the New England Patriots.   Then fate, game fixing referees, and God knows what else, intervened, allowing New England to walk off the field of play with a victory they did not earn.  The Brown Log have consistently out predicted the experts this year and if we'd have nailed that one, it would have been sweet.   In any case, our 9-4 record predicting Browns games this year still beat all of the experts.

This week our Browns return home to take on the Chicago Bears, who find themselves in a fight for the playoffs.

Emotionally, the Bears have an edge, no question about it.   The Browns are coming off a series of extremely deflating losses topped off by the unimaginable defeat last week.

On the plus side for Cleveland:

- This is a home game and will be played in brutally cold weather which will tighten up players on both sides of the ball.

- The Bears have a QB controversy.  Jay Cutler will be under center for Chicago Sunday.  If he's 100% he's an able NFL QB but both fans and perhaps his own teammates lack confidence in Cutler.

- Josh Gordon is emerging as a superstar wideout of the kind not seen since the days of Jerry Rice.   Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden both know that Gordon is the kind of player who can make a QB look like a genius.   Gordon's presence is bound to open up opportunity for the rest of the Brown's O too as the Bears would be fools not to double Gordon all day long.

- Aging veteran running back Willis McGahee is out Sunday.   McGahee has been a real trooper this year.  He shows up every Sunday, works hard, runs hard and does not fumble but his knees just can't do what his courage and mind want to.  McGahee has been a net liability all year.   Perhaps Chris Obannaya or Fozzy Whittaker can step up now once given a chance.

Once again this week all of the pundits are going with 'da Bears.  The Brown Log respectfully disagree

BL Predicts

Browns 20
Bears    17

The BL are 9-4 year to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 13 vs the cheating New England Patriots

The Brown Log are now 9-3 year to date in predicting the outcome of Browns games.   If you stack us up against pundits who are actually paid for a living to cover the Browns you'll find that we are blowing the "experts" away.

Click on this link to see the record of the Plain Dealers staff.   Note that the best record amongst the "pros" is a paltry 7-5.

Week and week out, the so called experts let emotion overrule logic when it comes to our beloved Browns.  Football is an emotional game but more often than not, skills beat out emotion on the field of play.  This week however look for emotion to finally rise up and favor our Browns.  That and another important factor external to the field of play which is the heads up that Houston's Antonio Smith gave the NFL last weekend about the Patriots renewed cheating.

Everybody this week is predicting the Pats to win but there is an interesting bit of information that has leaked into the public's eye.    On December 1st at halftime the disgustingly bad Houston Texans were handling the Pats, leading by a score of 17-7.   In the second half, the Pats miraculously recovered and barely eked out a win, 34-31.   After the game the Texans Antonio Smith accused the Pats of cheating.
If you look at the Patriots team, their talent levels are not in line with their 9-3 record and in the past it is a known fact that the Patriots have employed sophisticated cheating schemes.   If you read what Antonio Smith had to say in the link, it is probable that history is repeating itself and the Patroits have morphed their cheating into new areas such as using electronic surveillance to listen in on opposing coaches.   The technology to do so exists, but perhaps the scumbag Bill Belichick has invested in duplicating what the NSA does to all of us.

I admire that our head coach Chud looks for every edge, week in and week out.   This week, I truly expect Chud to do everything in his power to avoid that the Patriots steal info from the Browns.  Without this edge, expect the Pats to be surprised by the Browns more than once.

Moving onto the players that will have to execute come game time, very thankfully Jason Campbell is starting for the Browns this week, and he has looked good in practice.   Campbell will likely go vertical a bit more than he has this year to break tendency and surprise the Pats.  With Josh Gordon emerging as the premier wideout in the NFL, and the Pats trying to handle Gordon by jamming him at the line of scrimmage but not double teaming him, I expect the Browns to break several big gains.  It is worth noting that the Pats have the worst run defense in the NFL and even the Browns with their pathetic rushing attack should be able to help Campbell by gaining a few yards on the ground.

On defense, our Browns will have their hands full with Tom Brady but look for Brady to struggle a bit if the Patriots are unable to decode information that they steal from the Browns.  The Browns defense will also be significantly better this week.   Speaking of experts who miss important factors, last week, none of the experts, either before or after the Browns game against Jacksonville, understood the negative impact that starting Darius Eubanks had on the Browns chances of winning that game.  Football is a game of 11 players vs 11 players, and if even one of those 11 players is not of NFL quality, it's a MAJOR disadvantage.   I actually isolated on Eubanks every play he was on the field vs the Jags and he consistently made bad reads that put him out of position to make plays against the run.   The handful of times Eubanks put himself in a position to make a play against the run, tiny Eubanks was manhandled by blockers in every case except one where he did make a tackle after a 3 yard gain.  Against the pass he wasn't much better.   When Eubanks was on the field vs Jacksonville, the Jags were able to run and pass the ball with little trouble because they were playing 11 players vs what effectively was only 10 NFL players for the Browns.   This week it looks like Craig Robertson is going to play instead of Eubanks and that is a huge plus for the Browns.

Finally and importantly, football is an emotional game and after Joe Haden's outburst last week and the embarrassing loss to Jacksonville, I expect the Browns to be highly motivated vs New England.


BL Predicts the Browns will pull off an upset

Browns    24
Patriots     16

The BL are 9-3 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts - Game 12 vs Jacksonville

This week's game is the hardest to predict this season because on paper it seems the Browns should win this home game but a few key factors give me pause.

Some factors to consider this week:

* Browns QB Brandon Weeden is 0-4 as a starter.   His counterpart, Chad Henne, is a slightly below average NFL passer.   Being a bit less than mediocre gives Henne a major advantage compared to the disastrous Brandon Weeden.   Sitting on the bench may indeed have given Weeden a few ideas on what he might do different.  For example, look for Weeden to heavily favor Josh Gordon today.   If Weeden simply flings it in Gordon's direction early and often it would be a major step in the right direction. However, expect Jacksonville to be ready.   If the Jaguars scheme to keep the ball away from Gordon it may foil Weeden's one chance at success by creating a turnover or two.   Chad Henne on the other hand will most certainly play more consistently than Weeden.

* The Browns will be playing Darius Eubacks at one of the ILB positions.   In the preseason, Joe Banner cut a number of veteran players in favor of lesser paid rookie free agents.   Those players released included promising 2nd year linebacker James Michael Johnson, who now makes a living for the 9-2 Kansas City Chiefs.   Another was a solid linebacker, LJ Fort.   The Browns saved cash by cutting more experienced players but they gambled that depth wouldn't be needed at LB at any point during the season.  The NFL season is long and here we are in the stretch run and the lack depth at linebacker is suddenly a potential game deciding issue.   Count on the fact that Jacksonville will isolate receivers against Eubanks and test him.  Eubanks was playing safety at Georgia Southern 12 months ago.  A few key plays should decide Sunday's game and I would be surprised if Eubanks is not on the wrong end of more than one big play.

* The home field should not be ignored but I'm guessing that many frustrated Browns fans are going to sit this game out, thus damping down the home field advantage for Cleveland.

* Weather will be cold and nasty.   Bad weather often affects QB's more than anybody and the fact is that Chad Henne has more experience playing in the cold than our own Brandon Weeden.

* Finally I'm sure that Chud would very much like to impress on his bosses that he can lead the Browns to a win at home against a team that the Browns "should" beat.   Look for Chud to try a few trick plays to surprise the Jags.   Chud's ability to get big plays this season by expert use of the element of surprise helped the Browns beat the Vikings and Bills.  I've got a feeling that Jacksonville will be on the lookout and for the first time this season, the tactic will not work.

Tough call but I see the Browns losing a difficult battle against Jacksonville:

BL Predicts:

Jacksonville    17
Browns           10

The BL are 8-3 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.