Brown BLog Predicts: Odds are against winning ugly.

When I think about predicting the outcome of a given game, I always start with the thought, what if these two teams played 10 games?   If the Browns played the Rams in Los Angeles ten times today I do believe the Rams would win 6 or 7 times.  So as Lloyd Christmas might say, "you are telling me there is a chance!".  Indeed, if the Browns defense plays well which is something they've done all season, the Browns could win today if Kevin Stefanski is willing to "win ugly".  What is winning ugly?  It is something Bill Parcells and Marty Schottenheimer knew how to do.  You can tilt the odds in your favor in a game where you are apparently likely to lose, if you use the clock and leverage your teams strengths.  The Browns are in trouble due to injuries on offense, but they have a great D.   Run the damn clock and you move the odds of winning in your favor by limiting your opponents time of possession. 

The problem with that is that Paul DePodesta and Kevin Stefanski just hate winning ugly.   Don't get me wrong, Kevin Stefanski does something that most Browns Head Coaches during the rather ugly and sleezy Haslam era did not.   Stefanski has his team ready to compete almost every Sunday but he just cannot resist trying to be cute once or twice in any given game. 

As Jim Schwartz was quoted this week when asked about analytics, "football is not played in a vacuum".  So why is it that in a cold weather game, Kevin Stefanski called a double reverse with a QB who had just entered the game, PJ Walker, and another player, Pierre Strong, who also had barely a snap on offense?   Why?  Because our 80's corner bar Archie Bunker drunk, Paul DePodesta must have told him that the Broncos would never imagine that the Browns would be stupid enough to run a double reverse with two cold players (literally and figuratively).   It always works after all!   Throw a long pass with your backup QB on 4th and 1??   Sure fire Browns Touchdown!  Hooray!  

Instead, the Broncos had done their homework.  They knew damn well that the Browns are apt to do stupid things so their defenders understood to be patient against the Browns offense and make their reads.  Result?  There were not one but two Broncos ready to crush Pierre Strong on the double reserve, which Mr. Strong obviously noted, because he fumbled the pitch to him. 

End of game.

The scenario in which the Browns win today involves running the ball 60% or more and passing with veteran Joe Flacco very conservatively.  

The Browns won't do that because analytics says there is no such thing as winning ugly and that if you study the statistics enough, you will discover human beings can indeed be coached to perform like robots.   

The Brown BLog predicts

Rams        26

Brown      17

The Brown BLog are 5-6 season to date. 

Brown BLog Predicts: Doubling Down

 Over the 10 + years The Brown BLog have predicted Browns games, we have always had a winning record.  I probably came to believe that I actually know what I am talking about but truth be told, I usually predicted the Browns to lose and frankly, for as long as most can remember, predicting the Browns to lose is a winning formula.

This year the Brown BLog is 4-6 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.  Why?  Because more often than not, we see the Browns losing.

So maybe just maybe the 2023 Browns will make believers out of us naysayers?   Well, maybe but my view today is that even a homer should think seriously about the Browns chances of winning today.   But homers will all line up saying the Browns will win.  

Of course, the Brown BLog is doubling down on losing. 

Why double down on losing?

- It is extremely hard to win in Denver.  The average NFL home team wins about 56% of the time.  The Bronco's all time home winning percentage is about 63%

- Russell Wilson may be getting up there in years, but he can still run if he needs to and to beat the Browns amazing defense, the opposing QB has to rack up at least a handful of big runs.   

- Dorian Thompson Robinson took a solid step up vs the Steelers but he is a rookie and he still played mostly poorly vs the Steelers.  He has potential but he's a warm weather rookie QB playing his first NFL road game in one of the hardest stadiums for any visiting NFL team.   And the weather promises to be extremely cold.

- Last but not least Denzel Ward is out today.  That hurts, big time. 

Look for DTR to struggle.   Look for Russell Wilson to play well and look for the Browns to lose

The Brown BLog Predicts

Denver          20

Browns         10

The Brown Blog are 4-6 season to date.

Ohio's Football Tradition: Ohio State vs Michigan

If you want to understand the passion for football in Ohio, look no further than Ohio State Football.

Steeped in tradition, Buckeye football is nearly a religious experience on any given fall Saturday in Ohio.   Generations of Ohioans love their Buckeyes and sometimes the passion is so intense that it can be nearly embarrassing.   But passion it is.

Embarrassing?   Well, try attending an Ohio State vs Michigan game in Ann Arbor, Michigan and you might see what I mean.  Fans in Ann Arbor are polite and respectful of Ohio State fans which stands in sharp contrast to the behavior of many Buckeye fans at any home game in Columbus.

The Ohio State University themselves actually encourage this behavior with the relatively new and mostly not funny tradition of "crossing out" the M in many communications that the University themselves produce during Michigan week.   It is an utterly stupid, pointless and relatively new tradition that should be done away with.   

Why, ask you?

Stupid - Because effectively an institution of higher learning is defacing public property and encouraging poor spelling. 

Pointless - Because at it's worst, the demonization of the letter M encourages poor sportsmanship.

I hope the Buckeyes win this weekend, but you won't catch me getting caught up crossing out M's and hopefully someday our great University will find something positive to do during Michigan week.

The Brown BLog Predicts: Game 10 vs the Steelers - Experience

The Browns, under the leadership of Paul DePodesta, have spent much of the last 7 years doing two things:

 

- Losing games

- Trying desperately to prove conventional wisdom wrong 

Today vs the Steelers conventional wisdom says that a rookie QB will struggle.  In fact, as a case in point, the Browns even have data to prove that Damian Thompson-Robinson is going to struggle.   His performance in his first game vs the Ravens.   But let's ignore that data, after all, DTR, who was the Browns backup QB at the time, did not have a week to prepare as a starter when he played vs the Ravens.  Some message there, if you are a backup on the Browns, you are apparently excused for poor performance and preparation if you are a backup.

But Brock Purdy played well last year and he was the last pick in the 2022 draft!  Yes, he did but there are hundreds of other QBs who struggled in their rookie season.  Ignore that data?  Why not.

DTR starts today vs the Steelers.   The Browns know that PJ Walker gives them better odds of winning, data proves that however they must keep one foot in the future, and they believe DTR can improve his future value by playing now and there is no doubt that they believe that the Browns can go 4-4 with DTR at the commands.   

So get ready for a wild ride today knowing that the Browns still have games against the Jets, Bears, the Bengals without Burrow and the Rams.   Win every one of them for sure!   Even with a bad QB?   

Let's see

The Brown BLog Predict that our defense will be just fine but DTR won't

Steelers  30

Browns  10

The Brown BLog are 4-5 predicting Browns games this season.

Drinking the Kool Aid?

Either the Browns believe they can shape their future by the power of positive thinking or they are simply unwilling to face reality.   This week pushes all of the limits of their ability to spin.

SPIN FAILURES

1. You read it on the Brown BLog weeks ago that Deshaun Watson was heading towards a season ending shoulder injury.   Micro tears are STRUCTURAL damage because strong muscles support the shoulder structure and Watson's muscles were micro torn.  I felt you could see this season ended injury coming from miles away.  I guess Berea is simply too close to see it coming.  

2. The next big spin failure is one that we will have to confront this Sunday.   Our new spin is that DTR's performance against the Ravens was understandable because he did not have a full week to prepare as the starter.   DTR himself said that he did not even know some of the play calls coming in from Kevin Stefanski.

Are you drinking the Kool Aid??

I am not.   Why?

Well for starters

- Why is it that DTR after a full training camp, was not in command of his playbook?

- Why is it that DTR did not apparently take his role as backup QB seriously enough to prepare as if he might have to play?

If you drink the Browns Kool Aid and expect to see a new man at QB Sunday against the Steelers I suspect you're going to be seriously let down.

The Brown BLog Predicts: Quesions Answered - Week 9 vs Ravens

The Browns vs the Ravens will be the most important game the Browns have played in over two seasons because this game is going to answer a lot of questions.

Among the questions that we will have the answers to after Sunday's match:

- Are the Browns a Super Bowl contender?

- Is Kevin Stefanski capable of a flawless day of coaching, or will he continue to listen to Paul DePodesta's staff during the most critical moments of a game and make mind numbing decisions that mar games that are generally well planned on offense. 

Those are two pretty big questions.   A road game vs the very talented and well coached Ravens is a test.  Win it and pass.  Lose it and fail.

I see the Browns battling tomorrow but losing a relatively close battle.   But whether the Browns lose by 1 point or 30 a loss will be a failure that foreshadows yet another disappointing season for the Browns 

Brown BLog Predicts

Ravens    23

Browns   16

The Brown BLog are 4-4 this season predicting the outcome of Browns games.

CJ Stroud vs Deshaun Watson: What is the Difference?

After his remarkable performance last Sunday in an amazing come from behind victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaners, CJ Stroud was asked to explain his incredible success as a rookie QB in the NFL.

Stroud answered that he gave all the credit to his Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.

When fans seek to understand what is the difference between Deshaun Watson, a very good QB and CJ Stroud who is emerging as a world class QB the answer is in Stroud's own words.

Watson has even more ability than CJ Stroud, the only difference is that Stroud has surrendered his life to our Lord Jesus.

If fans want the Browns to win a Super Bowl, they should do everything in their power to shower Mr. Watson with the words and love of Christ the Savior.

Once Deshaun Watson is saved, and begins to live his life in the brilliant light of our Lord, he will be transformed off the field and then on it! 

The Brown BLog Predicts: Game 8 vs Cardinals

The Browns luck ran out against Seattle last Sunday.  

What?  Luck??

Luck does not exist, right?  It's all about the numbers.   Well, I don't know which set of analytics says that but I thought at a bare minimum it was a terrible idea to put the entire game on PJ Walkers shoulders after such a gutsy performance.   So instead of being a hero, Walker ends up the goat and the Browns yet again try to outsmart an opponent, who instead made their reads and won the play, then the game.

So will we need luck against the Cardinals today?  I was ready to predict Arizona if Kyler Murray were to start, but a rookie QB against the Browns amazing D?   

I see no way the Browns lose to a rookie QB, Clayton Tune will make a few errors and the Browns will get a win at home

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns            23

Cardinals         17

The Brown BLog are 3-4 this season  

The Brown BLog Predicts: Stay the Course

The Browns have won two games in a row without their franchise QB, whose rotator cuff hangs in the balance.   The Browns Defense and Special Teams deserve much of the credit for those two wins, not to mention some officiating calls that seem inspired by the legendary gambler Tim Donaghy.

However illogical it is that the Browns are 4-2 today, it remains hard for me to accept that this Browns team is destined to success.   PJ Walker undeniably is a cool customer under pressure and I like his leadership, but carry the Browns to the playoffs?  I don't think so.   He's putting more film out there every week, NFL teams are going to find even more cracks in his game.

So this week the Brown BLog stays the course and predicts yet again the Browns will lose this week vs. a very good Seahawks team.

Let's hope for a Washington Commanders loss this week because word is that if they win, Jacoby Brissett is not getting traded.   Without Brissett the Browns hopes for salvaging a playoff season are going to go down the toilet, because I don't care what anybody says, you can say what you like about Deshaun Watson off the field, but on the field he is a warrior.  If he's not playing something is seriously and structurally wrong with that rotator cuff.

Brown BLog Predicts

Seahawks        28

Browns            17

the Brown BLog are 2-4 season to date predicting Browns outcomes.

The Brown BLog Predicts: On the Road to Indy

Winning on the road is hard in the NFL, the home team wins 56% of the time in the NFL.  Fans and pundits are almost universally aligned in predicting a Browns win this week and that the Colts, because Gardner Minshew is at QB, are beatable.

Wrong.   While I like Anthony Richardson, think he will be a goo QB and am sorry to see him out for the season, I also think facing a rookie QB would have been a bounty for the Browns defense.  Minshew on the other hand, might be a journeyman, has been around the block enough to know when to take a risk and when to fold.   Furthermore the Colts have a good run game and plenty of young, fast and talented defenders.

This is a trap game and I think the Browns are the prey.  Deshaun Watson might well be back, but unless the Browns can run the ball and get a long overdue big game from their $15,000,000 Tight End, I see this game tilting to the Colts.   

Watson is likely to be rusty yet again and Njoku rarely produces a Travis Kelce like output, in spite of his similar salary.  I think Watson will be his old self at some point this season, but not after 3 weeks off and I think Njoku will eventually put up some numbers, maybe today but it won't be enough today.

The Brown BLog Predicts:

Colts        26

Browns    13

The BL are 2-3 this season prognosticating Browns games. 

The Brown BLog Predicts: Week 6 vs SF 49ers - - - EaSy!!!

 PJ Walker off the taxi squad to battle the 5-0 49ers?

Easiest Prediction of the Season:

The Brown BLog Predicts

49ers        31

Browns    10

The Brown BLog is 2-2 this season predicting Browns games. 

Paul DePodesta's Guardrail of the Week: No Uncoordinated Leaks!

 One of Paul DePodesta's Guardrails is "no uncoordinated leaks"

This week, we all learned for the first time from Josina Anderson, that Deshaun Watson will not play vs the 49ers.   

This is chaos, not coordination.

Paul DePodesta's GUARDRAIL OF THE WEEK- Don't Pay for Depth! - Cleveland Browns Analytics

 Absurd to think but the Cleveland Browns have been extremely secretive when it comes to detailing the strategies that result from their extraordinary investment in analytics.

Why is it absurd?   Because analytics have produced below average results.

How can we measure the results of analytics if the Browns hold their strategies so close to the vest?  Well let me take a stab at this.

- Paul DePodesta is in his 8th season as Chief Strategy Officer

- The Browns record in his first 7 seasons is 40-73-1.....

- The only documented record I can locate of Mr. DePodesta's strategy are his infamous Guardrails:

 

Every single guardrail published all those years ago can be questioned and the Brown Blog plan to look at every guardrail in the coming weeks, but today let's look at one guardrail that is "in the news" of late.

PAUL DePODESTA GUARDRAIL OF THE WEEK - DON'T PAY FOR DEPTH

In a season in which Jimmy Haslam is paying over $280,000,000 in player salaries, many of them free agent signees, which in itself is an abandonment of another guardrail strategy, but leave that for another week, the Browns simply could not resist the analytical goldmine of accumulating a 5th round pick and saving $2,000,000 in salary by trading Josh Dobbs.   Dobbs is playing well, he is playing in fact like a QB who has been in the NFL for 6 seasons and knows how to handle the QB role.

I too was swept away by DTR's pre season performance however I am not being paid a 7 figure salary to make roster decisions for the Cleveland Browns.   

The aligned team of Paul DePodesta, Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski are however paid millions to decide how to spend Jimmy Haslam's billions and in less than 2 months that trade has the stench of horrid decision making.

Given how and how often the Browns run Deshaun Watson, having depth at QB is critical in a season that Jim Haslam hoped to make a deep playoff run.   But Analytics says don't pay for depth and here we are.........

Go Browns!