BL Predicts: Week 16 - Season finale vs Ravens

Normally, we predict the Browns game the day before to have as much information as possible but this week the outcome is already clear days before game time.

Brian Hoyer's shoulder is hurt, Connor Shaw may start so QB is bound to be an issue.   The Ravens are fighting for their playoff life and the game is in Baltimore.

BL Predicts:

Ravens      27
Browns     13

The BL are 9-6 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 15 - Browns vs. Panthers

While the BL correctly foresaw that Johnny Football would have a rough debut I have to confess I had no idea that Johnny Manziel would show himself to be so flawed.  In a debut that was utterly terrible, Manziel's single game performance was so bad that it raises doubts about his potential as an NFL quarterback.  Normally you give a player a season to evaluate him but in Manziel's case he simply looked like he doesn't belong in the NFL.  His historically embarrassing debut is something that could only happen in Cleveland.

After the game Browns legend Bernie Kosar dumped on the front office and a culture of losing.  Bernie talks to people so his viewpoint has foundation in fact.   My guess here is that Bernie went off because he knows that Mike Pettine did not want to start Manziel vs the Bengals.  If Jimmy Haslam is interfering in the football operation of the Browns, it's a really really bad sign.

Onto Carolina.  Can the Browns game plan a better scheme for Manziel?   The answer is yes, anything would be better than the egg they laid against the Bengals.    Expect Cleveland to move Manziel around a bit and look for Johnny to make better reads but don't expect the Browns to win.   Turnovers and stalled drives will still likely be the order of the day vs the Panthers, but I would expect Johnny Football to move the team at least a few times on Sunday

BL Predicts:

Carolina      30
Browns       13


The BL are 8-6 year to date predicting Browns games.

Farewell Mike Pettine ??

Jimmy Haslam fired Chud because he did not like how Chud refused to cut players who didn't measure up.  Mike Pettine has learned that lesson well, making brutal examples this year of Ben Tate, Billy Cundiff, Kiero Small and others when they failed to do as the team pleased.

After yesterday's debacle vs Cincinnati, in which heaven forbid, Marvin Lewis out coached Mike Pettine, will Pettine's head be on the block?   Haslam has fired his head coach for 2 years running and let's not forget, Pettine was Joe Banner's man.

BL Predicts: Week 14 Browns vs Bengals - The debut of Johnny Football

When predicting, the Brown Log like to stick to the facts and here are the facts this week vs the Bengals:

- The home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL, just about the only factor in the Browns favor this week.

- The Browns have been torn apart by injury, though at linebacker and free safety players have stepped up and done an admirable job.  However at center and defensive line, the Browns have been severely weakened.

- A rookie QB is starting for the Browns this week.  Even if that rookie QB is the most famous rookie QB in NFL history, he's still a rookie QB.  Rookies make rookie mistakes, even the ones who end up being great.  Odds are strong that Johnny Manziel will make a critical mistake or two on Sunday.  Manziel likely will also surprise the Bengals with a few big plays both in the air and on the ground but this is not college where a mistake or two can be overcome by a few big plays, it's mistakes that decide games in the NFL.

- Football is an emotional game and the Bengals have an emotional edge on multiple fronts.

• Earlier this year the Bengals were soundly defeated by the Browns.
• The Bengals have more at stake as they hold the division lead
• The Browns have key players like Joe Thomas who favor the veteran QB Hoyer
• Marvin Lewis may be into Manziel's head with the midget comment

- Finally, another factor in any outdoor game, especially in Ohio is the weather.  On the Thursday evening in Cincinnati that the Bungles lost to the Browns there was a 50 mile per hour wind blowing and the Bengals stupidly stuck to their game plan, throwing passes all over the field that were visibly affected by the wind while the Browns clearly adapted to the elements and were able to move the ball.   Ironically the weather in Cleveland is supposed to be decent and the Bengals are out for revenge, I think they'll have the edge Sunday vs the Browns.


BL Predicts:

Bengals      24
Browns      20

The BL are 7-6 season to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 13 vs Colts

Injuries can impact a team more significantly in the NFL than any other professional sport.   In 2014, the Browns have been impacted by injuries more than any team in the NFL.   A litany of critical players are gone:  Alex Mack, Jordan Cameron, Karlos Dansby, Tashaun Gibson, Phil Taylor are all pro bowl or near pro bowl quality players that have missed a major part of the season.

At the end of every season, Jimmy Haslam decides whether or not to fire his head coach.   The Brown Log hope that Haslam breaks his trend and allows Pettine to return for a second season, but one factor not in Pettine's favor that Haslam will have to consider is whether or not Pettine has caused the rash of injuries by not implementing a strong conditioning program.

I'm a fatalist this week against the Colts.   Add a QB controversy with Hoyer's play degrading since the Houston game, to the mountain of injuries we have and I see Andrew Luck and his crew handing the Browns a solid loss at home.

BL Predicts:


Colts      24
Browns  14

The BL are 6-6 season to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 12 vs Bills

Until last weekend, I thought that the fact that the Browns have managed to continue to win while being decimated by injuries was a tribute to team unity and game planning.   The win against the Falcons also convinced me that even with the injuries, people like myself have ignored the fact that the Browns also have talent that still differentiates them.   Players like Joel Bitonio are playing at a Pro Bowl level and are a significant upgrade to the team vis a vis the 2013 season.   Add in Josh Gordon who is the most talented receiver in the game and the Browns can compete with anyone.  Mike Pettine knows the value of running the clock down via a ground attack and so this team is going to compete every week.

This week we face a Bills defense that is rated as one of the best in the NFL both against the run and pass.   The Bills O, led by Kyle Orton, does not turn the ball over.

All of the above leads to what surely will be a close battle Sunday in Buffalo.

Injuries once again could prove to be the difference.  Losing Gibson is another massive loss but what I've noticed against Atlanta however is one injury nobody is aware of.   Against the Texans, late in the game, Brian Hoyer took a heavy hit and had to fight to recover his senses.   He's not been the same since and my best guess is he's very banged up.   The 3 intercepts against the Falcons stand as evidence.   Hoyer hasn't performed that badly in his career and the Falcons are not even that good a team.   I saw a tentative Hoyer, who appeared to be playing in pain.

Look for a close game, I hope I'm wrong but I see the Bills holding on for a win against the Browns

BL Predicts

Buffalo    21
Browns    13

The BL are 5-6 year to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 11 vs Falcons

Just about everything is working against the Browns in their matchup vs Atlanta this week:

- The Browns are on the road
- The Falcons are on a roll
- The Falcons play a 4-3 defense which is the best formation to stop the zone blocking running scheme that the Browns run
- Matt Ryan and his offense play well at home.
- The Browns have been decimated by injuries and go into this weeks game losing their QB on defense in Dansby along with key pass rusher Jabaal Sheard.   Dansby is much better than Craig Robertson in pass coverage and look for the Falcons to exploit Robertson.

Josh Gordon's return could be a major boost to the Browns but both Gordon and the offense may need time to adjust to each other and Gordon likely needs reps to get back to full game speed.  I'd be pleasantly surprised if Gordon is a game changer out of the box.

The Falcon's defense is not good and neither is the Browns but the trends on the two units appear headed in opposite directions.   The Falcons D has given up 17 points in each of the last two weeks whereas the Browns have lost key players to injuries and played poorly vs Houston.

BL Predicts:

Falcons     30
Browns     17


The BL are 5-5 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.  

BL Predicts: Week 10 vs Texans

Concern is the operative word for today's match up vs the Texans.   While part of the caution is due to still not being able to believe the Browns are for real after so many years of losing, part of the nervousness about today's game is simply sound analysis of the facts:

- The Browns have been severely damaged by injuries.   Now Phil Taylor is gone for the season.  He joins Alex Mack, Jordan Cameron, Johnson Bademosi, John Hughes, Armonty Bryant and the suspended Josh Gordon.  It's a tribute to the coaching of the Browns that they continue to win.  I've also noticed center Nick McDonald limping severely late against Cincinnati.

- The Texans have lost 5 games this year but each time they've lost it's been a battle.  Today against the Browns the Texans have top draft pick Jadeveon Clowney coming back.   

- Several of the Browns opponents have successfully schemed their defense to stop the Browns running game but no opponent has really found a way to limit Brian Hoyer on play action naked role outs.   However the Texans have JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney and let's imagine "what if" the Texans guess correctly a few times that Hoyer will pass off play action.  Hoyer would get crushed.

There are also some points of major concern for Houston:

- They're on the road vs Cleveland and we all know the home team wins 58% in the NFL.

- The Texans will miss Arian Foster.

- Most importantly, the Texans will start a QB who will play for the first time in an NFL game.   Ryan Mallett is not a rookie however.  He is a third year vet who's had plenty of time to get ready for his NFL debut and he's had a lot of time while with the Pats to study Mike Pettine's defense. 

Mallett starting his first game is a concern for Houston but it's also a major concern for Cleveland.  We don't have game film on this guy.  Cleveland knows how important this is.  For example, early in his miserable career, Brandon Weeden had a few decent games but once there was plenty of film for teams to study, it became clear that Weeden could be easily confused and he buckled under pressure.   Once NFL teams figured this out, Weeden never won another NFL game.  Look for Cleveland to make every effort to put Mallet under pressure but he may well be prepared for this.  

So how will the Browns play today vs Houston?:

This is going to be a very close game.  Coach Pettine's decision to keep running the ball eats valuable time off the clock which assures close games and Brian Hoyer has made wise decisions when passing.

Ryan Mallett starts in the NFL for the first time and the Browns will likely blitz him a lot.  Houston knows this and may well be ready with quick passes and deception. 

There's so much riding on this game for Cleveland.  If they arrive to 7-3 their odds of making the playoffs go through the roof.  Too good to be true?   We are jaded, aren't we fellow Browns fans.

I think the Browns are too banged up and Ryan Mallett will be able to establish a rhythm that goes against what the Browns are planning for.  I am also very worried that Brian Hoyer will be injured as the Texans plan to attack him on likely play actions.   We may very well see Johnny Football today due to Hoyer getting banged up and if we do, he won't play as well as Hoyer.     

BL Predicts:

Texans    24

Browns   20

The BL are 4-5 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.  

BL Predicts: Week 9 vs the Bungles - Beating the odds?

Can the Browns beat the odds and walk away with a W in Cincy tomorrow evening even though there are are numerous factors stacked against them?

* Cincinnati has not lost a regular season home game since the 2012 season and the Bengals are returning to full strength with AJ Green no longer injured, and while Giovani Bernard is hurt, the Bengals have Jeremy Hill emerging as a potential game changing talent in their backfield. 

* The Browns have been poor on the road this season at 1-2 including an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars.

* The Browns have been badly decimated by injuries and the suspension of key players.  Alex Mack, Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron & Phil Taylor.   There is a risk that Andrew Hawkins won't play Thursday evening and a key special teams player, Johnson Bademosi is out too.

In the aggregate these factors say the odds are the Browns will lose but on the plus side the Browns are playing as a team with a QB that is a courageous leader who inspires his teammates.  Emotion is a big part of a football game and the Browns might have an emotional edge Thursday evening.   Will that be enough?

What about coaching and game plans?

The Bengals will play it very conventional Thursday night, doing the things on offense and defense that they always do.   The Browns know what to expect.   I see the Browns, on the other hand, changing tendencies they've shown year to date, debuting some new plays and perhaps even some trickery.

The Browns will give the Bengals all they can handle for 2-3 quarters but in the end the Bungles will simply wear out the Browns, who have suffered too many injuries.  The Browns will give us something to cheer for tomorrow but in the end I think the Bengals will win.

BL Predicts

Browns        24

Bengals        31

The BL are 4-4 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games .

BL Predicts: Week 8 - Browns vs Bucs

Last week, Donte Whitner's game changing tackle forced a turnover and stopped an Oakland drive.   Entire season's can hinge on plays like that and we have to tip our hat to Whitner because he truly earned his pay and then some last week.   Oakland, in spite of their winless record, is a team with excellent talent, they just haven't put it together yet.

This week however, the Browns play a team that has holes everywhere.   Tampa run a 4-3 defense which is ideally suited to stopping zone blocking run offenses but the Bucs also don't have the same talent level as Oakland and Jacksonville.   I see the Browns being able to run the ball against Tampa.

For Cleveland more than any team in the NFL, our run game opens up the pass game.

The Brown Log see the last easy win of the season for the home team.

BL Predicts

Browns        27

Tampa Bay  13

The BL, for the first time in this blogs history, are below .500 for the season, with a 3-4 record predicting the winner of Browns games.   It simply gets a bit harder to foresee the winner when the Browns don't lose 80% of their games.   

BL Predicts: Week 7 - This "is" still the Cleveland Browns people

In face of all rational logic, I just have a bad feeling this week folks.

This game will be the true test of Mike Pettine in his farewell season as Browns head coach.  Jimmy Haslam has proven to Cleveland fans that he demands short term perfection even if success in the NFL requires long term commitment.  Pettine knows he is on the spot right now, fighting for his job but I don't see Cleveland being healthy enough, talented enough and experienced enough to make this the season that the Browns pull off a worst to first type of transformation.

Derek Carr is a rookie QB but he has shown signs that he is ready to emerge.  Furthermore against the Brown's break but don't bend defense, Carr has the type of arm that can break big plays.  The Browns D is banged up, Carr just might be ready for a big game in what looks to be unseasonably good weather Sunday in Cleveland.

Last week the Jaguars gave the NFL a blueprint on how to control the Browns zone blocking scheme.   The Raiders run a 4-3 which is the perfect formation to counter zone blocking.   Defensive linemen need to penetrate, stay in their lanes and let linebackers do their job.

Once you defang the Browns run game, Brian Hoyer transforms into just another average QB.  The Raiders have struggled against big armed QB's this season but against Tom Brady, who Brian Hoyer is often compared to, the Raiders had a very respectable showing, holding Brady and the Pats to 16 points.   With Hoyer forced into obvious passing situations, the Raiders can pin their ears back and pressure him into incompletions and costly mistakes.

On offense, Derek Carr has shown, in the words of Mike Pettine, that he can make all the passes.   The Browns and their 12 defensive backs will have their hands full, especially if the Raiders are able to run the ball early.  I'm going with a season deflating upset.

BL Predicts:

Raiders     28
Browns     17

The BL are 3-3 year to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 6 vs the lowly Jags

A lot of Browns fans are counting on an easy win Sunday in Jacksonville.  I agree on one count only.   The Browns are going to win, but it won't be easy.

After Alex Mack left the Steelers game last Sunday with his season ending injury, I focused my binoculars on John Greco and Paul McQuistan.   I was impressed by both, the Browns didn't lose a beat as both Greco and McQuistan were particularly dominant while run blocking.  The zone blocking scheme of Kyle Shanahan stood out.  The Browns were successful to move the entire Steelers defense en masse, at times it seemed to me that the Steelers D played into the Browns hands by trying to move with their blockers towards the Browns running back.   Penetrate gaps and hold your lane is what I was thinking Steelers defenders should do.   Reading up this week on tactics to stop a zone blocking scheme verified my thoughts.  Zone blocking is best countered with a 4-3 lineup whose lineman penetrate and stay in lanes.  Let the outside linebackers do their job to contain and the middle linebacker must make a lot of tackles.

If I am Jacksonville, I'm going to focus on stopping the Browns zone running by playing a lot of 4-3 and daring Hoyer to pass.  I think this strategy will in fact work and the Jags will hold the Browns offense a season low in points.

That brings us to the other major factor this week.   A rookie QB with penchant for pick 6's.   There's a reason coaches hate rookies and Blake Bortles is showing us that reason.   He has given up 3 pick 6's this season.   At times he has looked great, many others he's looked like, well, Brandon Weeden.   in the Hoyer vs Bortles matchup, I'm guessing Hoyer will make fewer mistakes and that will be the difference this week.   The only thing that could really muddy my prediction up is if, instead of passing, when in doubt, Bortles runs the ball.   Then we could have a major problem, but I think the Browns will bottle him up no matter what he does.

In what will be a close one, I see our Browns sneaking out of Florida with a W.

BL Predicts

Browns    19
Jags          17


The BL are 3-2 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Browns vs Steelers, Ch ch ch changes

For nearly 4 years, predicting the Browns to lose nearly every week has provided the Brown Log with tangible evidence of our ability to see and predict the future with stunning accuracy.  However, last Sunday in Tennessee may have provided evidence that the times they are a changing.

The 2014 season will turn on what happens Sunday vs the Steelers and there are three keys to the game.

First, Joe Haden must find a way to play.  Ben Roethlisberer abused Justin Gilbert every chance he had in the season opener and the Browns have to find a way to keep Gilbert off the field.

Second, the Browns must put strong pressure on Big Ben.

Third our offense has to continue to move the ball on the ground and keep the ball out of Pittsburgh's hands. 

For the first time in a long time, the Brown Log believes that the Browns will actually win a game.

BL Predicts:

Browns   23

Steelers   21 

The BL are 2-2 season to date in predicting the winner of Browns games. 

BL Predicts: Browns vs Titans without rose colored glasses

The home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL.   That's a fact so when predicting a road team to win in the NFL, you must have a strong reason because the odds are stacked against the road team.

Browns fans wear rose colored glasses more than any fans in the league, hence the majority of Clevelanders predict a win this Sunday in Nashville.   Pundits expect the Browns to improve significantly Sunday and they probably will get better in certain phases of the game.  Our D in fact, can't get much worse.   However don't expect that the Titans were sitting around looking for ways to get worse.  They too will get better this Sunday.

So while the Browns should improve their defense, the team will digress in other phases of the game.  The Browns are the only team in the entire NFL without a turnover this season and look for that streak to end Sunday under the pressure of a rowdy home crowd in Nashville and an aggressive Titans defense led by Ray Horton that focuses on creating turnovers.   On the road, turnovers often make the difference and I expect the Browns to make up for lost time Sunday with at least two turnovers.

We see the Browns losing a tight one Sunday in which a few key turnovers will impact the result of a close battle

BL Predicts

Titans       19
Browns    13

The BL are 2-1 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

"Play Like a Brown" Award: Week 3 - Kyle Fuller

The Brown Log have created a new weekly feature.   Each week we will chose the best player from that week's NFL games and bestow on him the "Playing like a Brown" honor.

This week the player who most demonstrated the skill and toughness on the field of play to be honored as "Playing like a Brown", was Kyle Fuller of the Bears whose interception and hard nosed defense helped the Bears beat the Jets on the road.

One fun fact that I think most Browns fans are aware of is that Kyle Fuller was picked with the number 14 pick in last years NFL draft.

Congrats Kyle!

Light at the end of the tunnel for the Browns?

As a Clevelander, it frustrates me that the same fans who are critical of anything that happens to the Cleveland Indians, who were just eliminated from the playoff hunt with two games remaining in their season, are somehow able to see a light at the end of the tunnel in 2014 for the Cleveland Browns.

In spite of over a decade of evidence to the contrary, Browns fans assume that the 2014 season will be different because there were some good signs in the first three games of the season.   There are two problems with that assumption:

1.  Many fans assume that the Browns will improve in upcoming games because the off week gives the squad time to work on correcting issues the team has on defense and on special teams.   I'm certain that the Browns will improve the team over the bye week, but there are 31 other teams in the NFL that are busily focused on improving.    The idea that the 3 extra days of prep that players have during bye week will magically allow the Browns to surpass NFL teams and start a winning run is utterly naive. 

2.  If you've ever run an organization that includes more than 50 people, you understand that human nature is such that bad times provoke turbulence on any team.   We are going to find out how good a leader Mike Pettine is.    One thing is for certain, there is no way that it's all "peace and love" in the Browns locker room.  No organization of dozens of men is EVER perfectly motivated.   My main worry is driven by Pettine's public criticism of Joe Haden.   Pettine's D is very much different from that of Ray Horton, our last defensive coordinator.  Haden became a Pro Bowl Corner in Horton's D.  In Pettine's scheme much additional pressure is being put on Haden who has allowed some big plays.   In an obvious reference to Haden, Pettine publicly commented last week that big name players have to play big time football.    In Pettine's scheme, Haden is asked to play on the right side and the left side of the defense.   Under Horton, Haden usually stuck to the left side of the field.   It's not as simple as saying "cover that guy" when you change sides of the field and surely Haden must be irritated to be raised up as the banner boy by Pettine for the entire team's failure.

Haden is very popular with his teammates and if he starts to complain behind the scenes that this high school coach and his radical changes are the reason behind Haden's woes, what we will witness against Tennessee is that new problems may crop up.

Teams that lose focus and unity do things like fumble the football, throw interceptions and give up more big plays.  Will Pettine be able to hold the team together AND publicly criticize leading players on the team.  Maybe he will, in about one week, we damn sure are going to find out.

It's a certainty that in losing times, Pettine's leadership of the team will be challenged in some way, and unlike past losing teams he coached like the 2012 Jets or the 2013 Bills, this time it will come entirely down to him to solve player rebellions.  Pettine may well emerge from these tough times consolidating his position as leader or he may drive the team into the gutter.   It'll be fun to watch but as for the 2014 season thus far the Browns have won 33% of their games.   To expect them to exceed this percentage during the remainder of the 2014 season is unrealistic.   

BL Predicts: Pavlov's Dawg Pound & Week 3 vs the Ravens

I'm always happy to be wrong when I predict the Browns to lose but much like Pavlov's Dog, predicting the Browns to lose has provided me years of evidence that I can accurately see into the future.   In other words, in spite of some good signs provided last Sunday by our Browns, I am not quite ready to jump on the Browns Super Bowl bandwagon.

In what will likely be a hard fought defensive battle that comes down to the 4th quarter, I see the Ravens defense handling the Browns running game and putting pressure on Hoyer when he passes.  I also see the Ravens experience giving them an edge on offense.   The Browns D on numerous occasions used 7 defensive backs against the Saints, who lost the entire 1st quarter before they figured out a plan to counter punch.   I think the Ravens offense will be ready for all of the Browns potential curve balls and that resulting big plays will be the difference.

BL Predicts:

Ravens    24
Browns   17


The BL are 1-1 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

NFL fans: Just who really are the hypocrites???

NFL fans have been looking the other way for 30 years pretending we don't know players use steroids because while PED use is known to make humans significantly more violent, it also has raised the level of play in the NFL to spectacular levels. That we all express surprise when one of our robots blows up seems a bit naive. They've been detonating like dynamite for 30 years, it's just that social media now puts it in everyone's face so we can't ignore it

BL Predicts: Week 2 vs New Orleans - Showing your hand...

First, let us be clear about one thing:  we believe Mike Pettine is a good coach.  However he's not a miracle worker.   For the Browns to put up a winning season with yet another new coach, yet another round of dramatic player turnover and yet another offensive and defensive system is tantamount to asking for a miracle.

There were positive signs in the Browns season opening loss to the Steelers.  Foremost, Pettine seems to have chosen players that have a competitive edge and will fight for every yard.   If the Browns hang with Pettine for 5 years or more I think his leadership will pay off.   If…..

On the negative side, after a preseason of hiding many facets of their offense the Browns finally had to show their hand.   Their offense was effective in the second half against the Steelers as they were effective running the ball and passing off of play action.  Unfortunately, the Browns are not yet far enough along in Shanahan's offense.   I believe they pretty much showed everything they have against Pittsburgh.  Now that we've shown our hand, it won't be difficult for New Orleans to be fully prepared for whatever the Browns O can throw at them Sunday.

A lot of pundits see the Browns winning on Sunday.   Football is an emotional game and with a break or two anything can happen but what I foresee is a long day in store for our Brownies.   New Orleans has a very talented team but they were defeated in Atlanta by an extremely athletic group of receivers led by a top flight QB.   The Browns have neither and New Orleans will have a chip on their shoulder Sunday.

Look for an ugly day for our local hero's and another lesson for Jimmy Haslam in the price a team pays for nonstop turnover

BL Predicts

Browns         17
Saints            34

the BL are 1-0 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: 2014 Season opener vs Steelers. History & experience

History and experience are sufficient to foretell the result of tomorrow's season opener vs Mike Tomlin's Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is in his 8th year as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Mike Pettine is in his 8th week of full time coaching of this team, the Cleveland Browns.

Since 2009, Tomlin, his staff and his key player leadership like Big Ben, have played a defense coached by Mike Pettine 6 times and their record against Pettine's teams is 5-1.   Tomorrow's Browns game therefore is old hat for them.  They know exactly what they have in store, they've been there before.   The Steelers week of preparation for the Browns has been about "refining" tactics of an existing plan to use their offense to attack Pettine's D.   Same story for Tomlin's defense.  They have a feeling for what they'll face against Kyle Shanahan because they've been there and done that.   

Meanwhile, Mr. Pettine and Mr. Shanahan have had to focus on teaching 53 players the basics of their own schemes.  

it promises to be yet another gloomy day in Browns history as we pay the price for constant turnover of management, coaches, players and playbooks.

BL Predicts:

Pittsburgh       24

Cleveland       13

It would be a positive development if NCAA Universities drop football

The other day, I heard an interview in which the President emeritus of Northwestern, Henry Bienen, made a not so veiled threat that if unions are permitted for college football players, Northwestern may drop football.  

I'd like to point out that under the right circumstances, should institutions of higher education drop football, it would be an extremely positive development for the vast majority of interests.  

First things first, our Congress would need to remove the NFL's anti trust exemption, thus allowing free market principals to rule.  Entrepreneurs and their capital, would then be free to create new professional football leagues that could replace the current university football system.  The result would be thousands of jobs that pay a solid wage to football players and team staffs who today participate in today's college athletic system.

Unions are needed for NCAA players because today players have absolutely no voice and it's clear that this fact is to their extreme detriment.  Football is a violent game that consumes bodies over time.  I remember in the not so distant past, a college football season was comprised of 10 games.  Next years playoff system means that some colleges will play up to 15 games.   That means more career ending injuries.  Adding more games over the years was done without a single player having a voice in that decision.

Today, the NCAA treats football players with disdain and disrespect.   Look at the price tag on the below Ohio State jersey with Terrell Pryor's number 2 on it.  This photo was taken at Christmas 2010 in a sporting goods store.  $80 and not a cent went to Terrell Pryor.  It's a joke.

When Michael Dell was a University student studying business and he started selling computers from his dorm room, nobody stopped him from profiting because he hadn't graduated.   It's obscene abuse for the NCAA to profit from athlete's images but prevent them from doing the same.  Why shouldn't Nike have been able to pay Johnny Football his millions while he still was playing at Texas A&M??

Should the NCAA continue to insist on perpetuating the current system of college athletics, I say let the schools get back to the business of educating students and let's permit the free market to provide us with additional options when it comes to football.   

Joe Banner - How to increase the bottom line by juggling the bottom of the roster.

To understand why Joe Banner cut players like JMJ and LJ Fort last year, one need only look at the below chart.

In 2013, the savings by using an undrafted rookie free agent making the minimum instead of a 3rd year player making the minimum was $140,000 per player.

There is a $75,000 savings by substituting a rookie free agent for a one year veteran who makes the league minimum.  

Before game 1 of the 2013 season, Banner cut veterans like Trevin Wade, Brandon Jackson, Kellen Davis, Brad Smelley, JMJ and LJ Fort in favor of a group of undrafted rookie free agents.  These cuts added over $1,000,000 to Jimmy Haslam's bottom line.

Wade went on to perform well for the playoff New Orleans Saints.   JMJ for the playoff Chiefs.  Both could have helped the Browns win instead of lose games like Jacksonville, where rookie free agent LB Darius Eubanks was abused vs the run or New England, where special teams and rookie play hurt the Browns badly.

Joe Banner is President of the Browns because he's very skilled at maximizing the bottom line through careful management of player selection.  Banner's view, supported by yes man Mike Lombardi, is that the bottom of roster players are spare parts, and one reason Chud is gone is that he did not buy into that system, especially over the course of the season as he witnessed the price the Browns paid for cutting quality second year and veteran players.

BL Predicts: Super Bowl 48 - A study in contrasts

Super Bowl 48 offers up a couple of interesting subplots with fascinating contrasts:

- A traditional pocket passer, perhaps the greatest in the history of the game, Peyton Manning, vs a new wave QB, Russell Wilson, who can gain yards with his arm or his legs.

- Denver's great offense vs Seattle's great defense.

I think the game will come down to experience vs inexperience.   Not a single player on the Seahawks has played in the pressure pot called the Super Bowl.   Denver isn't exactly loaded with Super Bowl experience either.  Only four of their players have been in the big game, but one is their leader, Peyton Manning.  No question, Manning understands what the Seahawks are trying to do on defense and will guide his teammates to exploit Seattle's holes.

In what may be the last championship won by a traditional pocket passer for a long time, look for the Bronco's and Peyton Manning to win by a comfortable margin over Seattle

BL Predicts

Denver        27
Seattle         14

The BL's 2013 season playoff prediction record is 7-3 to date.

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs, week 3 - Divisional Championships

New England at Denver

Peyton Manning and the Broncos will be ready for the Patriots, who are a far weaker team when playing on the road where it is much harder for Bill Belichick to steal opponents plays.  Without inside information, the weaknesses in the Patriots game emerge.   They are weak in particular in the defensive backfield and Peyton Manning will exploit those holes.   I see this game as a runaway win for the Broncos.  

Denver              35
New England     17


SF 49ers at Seattle

In what should be one of the best games of the season, two evenly matched teams will fight it out.   Both sport fantastic defenses and have offenses led by mobile quarterbacks.   Seattle should focus on establishing a passing game in order to open up the run.  Seattle was not able to pass very well against the Saints and a result the score was closer than it should have been.  The Seahawks must establish the air game against the 49ers if they're to have any chance of moving the ball on the ground.   Look for Russell Wilson to step up with a Pro Bowl caliber performance and Seattle will win by a thin margin

Seattle          24
SF 49ers      20

The BL were 2-2 last week and now have a 5-3 record in this season's NFL Playoff predictions.

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs - Week 2

The BL got off to a decent start last week, correctly predicting 3 out of 4 matches.    Only Andy Dalton and the Bengals let us down.  On to week 2 of sensational NFL playoff games!

New Orleans at Seattle

Home field advantage and Seattle's incredibly fast defense will make life hard on Drew Brees.   Russell Wilson proved last year that he knows how to step it up in big games.   Unless something unforeseen like a key injury takes place, Seattle has this game going away.

Seattle              27
New Orleans   17


Indianapolis Colts at New England

The X factor in this game may well be the Colts signing this week of former Patriots WR, Deion Branch, who played 89 games for the Patriots in his career.   Branch may not be completely up to speed with the cheating methods that Bill Belichick is employing this season but he should be able to give some insights to the Colts into how to avoid being victimized by Belichick's illegal schemes.   Leave no stone unturned is what the Colts were saying when they signed Branch and I like that.   The Pats are actually not a very talented team.  Their receivers are mediocre and their defense is horrendous but Tom Brady is a good QB and Bill Belichick knows how to find advantages for his team, be they legal or not.

Plain and simple, the Colts are a better team than the Pats and I see them overcoming all obstacles in their way on the road this weekend.

Colts           30
Pats             20


San Francisco at Carolina 

Many pundits are picking San Fran this weekend because they refuse to accept that Cam Newton is the most gifted QB in the entire NFL.   Why they have that viewpoint is baffling to me because all you have to do is watch to guy to see an arm like no other in the game together with leadership that is world class.   And he can run too, which in the NFL playoffs of 2014 is proving to be a necessary skill.   I love Harbaugh too, he's the best coach in the game but I think Cam will carry the Panthers on his back to the Conference finals.

Carolina          24
SF 49ers          23


San Diego at Denver

I was in the stands for the Bengals vs Chargers game last Sunday.   The Chargers didn't really beat the Bengals, I think the Bengals killed themselves.    Without Andy Dalton's turnovers the Chargers would have been in a battle for their lives.   Peyton Manning is "not" Andy Dalton and the Denver Broncos are not the Cincinnati Bengals.   San Diego is nothing more than a small obstacle in Peyton Manning's march to the Super Bowl.   Forget it SD, you're going home.

Denver         42
San Diego    17

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs - Week 1

As is now tradition, the BL will take aim at predicting the winners in the NFL playoffs each week.

This weeks games include:

KC Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts:  The Chiefs, under Andy Reid, dramatically improved their team this year and one key was playing Marty Schottenheimer football.    Control possession by running and short high percent passes.   Eat clock, don't turn the ball over and play rock solid D.   This is a proven winning formula but Marty proved that in the playoffs you have to be ready to roll the dice, or you risk losing.   I'm going with Andrew Luck and the Colts at home.

Colts   27
Chiefs 17

New Orleans at Philadelphia:  In one year, Chip Kelly proved the naysayers wrong and turned the Eagles around with his innovative offensive schemes and his focus on factors such as nutrition and conditioning.   His players responded with a division title.   The emergence of Nick Foles is also a major feather in Kelly's cap.  New Orleans however are a more talented and experienced team.  Playoff experience at QB is the major factor in favor of the Saints.  The Eagles fans will make it hard on Brees but  I think Drew Brees and his crew will be more than ready.  I'm going with the road team here

Saints    33
Eagles   27


San Diego at Cincinnati:   San Diego is the weakest team in the playoffs going against a very balanced Cincinnati team that hasn't lost at home all year.  I see the Bengals getting past San Diego in the cold harsh weather at home.

Bengals    20
Chargers  10


San Francisco at Green Bay:  I see this game as by far the hardest to predict.   First and foremast the forecast is for the "HIGH" temperature tomorrow to be -4 degrees.   The brutal cold makes it unlikely that we see a lot of offense so we're probably going to see a close game in which turnovers may be a key.   On paper, Green Bay barely snuck into the playoffs while SF were one of the strongest teams in the league, but Green Bay is a different team with Aaron Rodgers at QB.  The return of Rodgers at full strength is a major consideration.   On the other hand, I like San Fran's running game including the ability of their QB Colin Kaepernick to run the ball, and I think the Niners have the best coach in the NFL.   Flip a coin here but I'm going to bet that Kaepernick will avoid mistakes and make a few big plays on the ground and the 49ers are going to squeak by the Pack.

49ers     13
Packers  10