The NFL's New Kickoff Rule

The most significant change to the NFL rule book in a very long time was approved last week by NFL owners.  It's my view that the new rule is a major improvement, more exciting to watch and comes with a very important benefit:   It is safer for the players.  

A good starting point to understand the concept is that if you paused past NFL Kickoffs at the point that the coverage team is at the 40 yard line, it would look pretty much the same as the below snip with the MAJOR difference that in the old way of kicking off the coverage team would be at full speed while in the new rule, nobody on the field can budge until the ball is fielded by a returner. 

Let's take a look at the basics of the new NFL kickoff rule:

- The coverage team lines up at the other team's 40 yard line, 25 yards "ahead" of the ball, which will continue to be kicked off from the 35 yard line.  

- 9 members of the return team will be lined up between 5 and 10 yards away.

- 2 returners must line up in the landing zone, which is between the goal line and the 20 yard line.

- Nobody except the kicker and returners can move until the ball is touched or touches the ground. 

.

- If the ball is kicked into the endzone or out of the endzone for a touchback, the ball will be placed on the 30 yard line instead of the 25.

- if the kickoff is short of the 20 yard line or out of bounds, the returning team gets the ball at the 40 yard line.

- Any kick that hits the "landing zone" (between the goal line and the 20 yard line) "must be returned"

- if a kick hits the ground in the landing zone and bounces into the end zone, it can be returned or downed.  if the returning team downs a kick in the end zone  that touched the landing zone, it only gets the ball at the 20 yard line.

This is all modeled largely (but not exactly, the NFL version has tweaks) on the kickoff that has been used by the XFL and here is a video example.

This change to the NFL rule book will have many impacts, from roster decisions to the talents required of a kicker, to special teams coaching and strategy.  Furthermore, on-side kicks are no longer allowed except in the 4th quarter and if an on side kick is attempted, it will need to be revealed by the kicking team and of course, in that case, the teams will line up differently for the on side kick.

The Brown BLog plan to dive into all of the many nuances of the new kickoff rule over the coming weeks.

Stay tuned! 

Johnny Football vs Brian Hoyer

Johnny Manziel recently stated on Shannon Sharpe's podcast that the Browns QB room was not a home for him.  The implication was that Hoyer was not a supportive teammate. 

Let me state first, football is a painful game and many athletes resort to the use of medication, at all levels of football.  I have empathy for all those athletes, including Johnny Manziel.  The use of medication to manage pain often devolves into addiction.

Surely the story of Johnny Manziel is not quite that simple, but only those who know him might understand the battles he has faced.

That said, it is a well known fact that Manziel during his first season with the Browns dedicated literally zero effort to improve his game and often showed up late and hung over for practice.   Frankly, I would expect Brian Hoyer to lose patience with any teammate who gave less than his best, not to mention a teammate that admits to never watching film.  

The Brown BLog Predicts: Super Bowl 58

Every prediction of Super Bowl 58 comes down to how you think about Patrick Mahomes.  It's never a great idea to bet against Number 15.   Mahomes is the $60 million dollar man.   The key for the 49ers will be can their $61,000,000 defensive line put Mahomes on the ground.  Pressure alone is not sufficient against Mahomes,  Nick Bosa, Chase Young, Javon Hargrave, Arik Armstead need to get Patrick Mahomes on the ground.   

One easy to ignore but crucial bit of infomation is that the Chiefs have announced that their Pro Bowl Left Guard Joe Thuney will NOT play.   He's out.  That is no small loss and it tips it for me.   

To win this Super Bowl the 49ers must pressure Mahomes and the Niners have the talent on their defensive line to make that happen.  The loss of Joe Thuney will inevitably hurt the Chiefs protection schemes and the Niners should pressure Mahomes while not needing to blitz as much.

I see the Niners sacking Mahomes at least 5 times and Kyle Shanahan finally getting that Super Bowl monkey off his back.

The Brown BLog Predicts

San Francisco 49ers        31

Kansas City Chiefs         20

Brown BLog Predicts: Conference Championships

One more weekend of football to determine who competes for the Super Bowl Championship.   

Lions vs 49ers

The Lions are on the road which is the only factor that gives me pause but the bottom line here is that I believe Detroit are the better team in every phase of the game and moreover, the Lions also have an emotional edge.   In the playoffs, the team that plays without fear has an advantage and Detroit's Head Coach Dan Campbell has his side ready to go every week. 

Look for the Lions to play well and just as importantly, to play with energy and focus.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Lions 34    49ers    24

Chiefs vs Ravens

Picking against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs is a formula for failure but I have good reason:  Lamar Jackson.   If ever we have witnessed an athlete with the Eye of the Tiger, right now it's Lamar Jackson who is burning to prove he is a Super Bowl QB.   The Ravens are a deep and balanced team, but to get to the Super Bowl and beat #15, a team must have great QB play and today look for Lamar to leave every ounze of his talent on the field and look for the Ravens to get past the Chiefs in a thriller.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Ravens 24    Chiefs  21

Brown BLog Predicts: NFL Playoff Predictions - Divisional Round

 Another extremely cold weekend presents an amazing group of football games.   The Brown BLog had a solid 4-2 record predicting Wild Card Round outcomes.   Here's our stab at this weekend's slate of games.

Texans at Ravens

The Texans and CJ Stroud are for real however the Ravens are simply too much for the Texans at this stage of their development.  

Brown BLog Predicts:        Ravens 24    Texans 13

Chiefs at Bills

Toughest prediction of all the weekend games has to be this game.   The Bills are at home and have been playing extremely well.  The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes (and Taylor Swift).  Emotionally speaking the Bills have years of baggage to overcome, although Sean McDermott's motivational tactics certainly are world class.   Can the Bills learn from the motivational speeches of Sean McDermott and unite their efforts to the same level of the September 11 terrorists or will the Chiefs continue their pattern of excellence when the pressure is on.   Honestly I don't know but my gut says "don't bet against Patrick and Taylor"

Brown BLog Predicts:        Chiefs     31    Bills    28

Buccaneers at Lions

I want Baker Mayfield to lead his team to victory so badly that I will be rooting for him to lead his team to win in spite of my prediction that the Lions are going to romp in this game.   I believe in what Detroit are doing in every part of their organization and it's going to continue to pay dividends this Sunday.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Lions 31    Buccaneers    17

Packers at 49ers

The Red Hot Packers are led by their emerging franchise QB Jordan Love and frankly I don't believe in Brock Purdy.   My upset special this week is the Pack defeating the Niners on the road in a thriller.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Packers 28    Niners 27

Brown BLog: NFL Playoff Predictions - Wild Card Round

 A fun slate of games are teed up for this frigid weekend and the Brown BLog is ready to predict them all.

Browns at Texans

CJ Stroud has been playing like a polished veteran all season while the Browns defense is the NFL's best all season long.   The Browns are deeper and my bet is CJ Stroud finally makes a few rookie errors with his first taste of NFL Playoff football.

Brown BLog Predicts:   Browns 30    Texans 20

Dolphins at Chiefs

I like Patrick Mahomes and Taylor Swift to lift the Chiefs over the banged up, gimmick dependent Dolphins..

Brown BLog Predicts:      Chiefs 27     Dolphins 24

Steelers at Bills

Buffalo are playing at their best at the perfect time while the Steelers are also hot however they are missing TJ Watt.   It all points to a solid win for the Bills

Brown BLog Predicts:         Bills 23    Steelers 13

Packers at Cowboys

Jordan Love had an Aaron Rodgers like game to get the Pack into the playoffs however on the road in Dallas against the deep and hungry Cowboys is too much to ask.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Cowboys  31    Packers 17

Rams at Lions

Everyone is in love with Sean McVay and his play calling.   I prefer Dan Campbell's leadership to light a new path for the Lions.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Lions 38        Rams 28

Eagles at Buccaneers 

The Eagles are in the midst of a late season collapse that most pundits believe they will put behind them against the Buccaneers.    It is rare that the favorites win every game in a given NFL playoff round and I see Baker Mayfield rising up, having a good game and helping lead his team to an upset Monday evening against the Eagles

Brown BLog Predicts:        Buccaneers  23   Eagles 21

Brown BLog Predicts: Get Ready!

The toughest game of the season to predict is today vs the Bengals because neither team have much to play for.   The Browns are getting ready for the post season and the Bengals are getting ready for the off season.  

The Bengals however have Ja'Marr Chase who is "chasing" several season records.  I listen the the Bengals Booth Podcast  which is excellent and they have often interviewed Ja'Marr Chase and one thing that comes through is he is extremely competitive and goal oriented.  With Chase on the field against many Browns backups, and the Browns fielding a journeyman QB who was on the Arizona practice squad two weeks ago, I see this game clearly going to the Bengals.

I've predicted the Browns to lose more than I have predicted them to win this year, mostly because 24 years of losing has me extremely slow to buy into this team.  Well, I am bought in now to the Browns. Today's prediction of a loss has nothing to do lost faith, I simply believe without Myles Garrett the Browns D is a different defense, they will be playing 11 vs 11 instead of 10 vs 9 today.  Add in Ja'Marr "chasing" his records and a backup to the backup to the backup to the backup QB on the field today for Cleveland and it is hard to imagine a win on the road.

Brown BLog Predicts

Bengals 27

Browns  16

The Brown BLog are 8-8 season to date

Brown BLog Predicts: Jets

The Jets led by Trevor Siemian are not going to beat a red hot Browns team looking to clinch a playoff spot 

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns 27

Jets 13

The Brown BLog are 7-8 season to date

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 14 vs Texans

In spite of turning the ball over more than their opponents the majority of their games this season, the Browns are winning.   Why?  Because their defense has been fantastic.  

A few statistics tell the tale:

- The Browns have run 1001 offensive plays this season while their opponents have run 807.    It's simple, the more plays you run the more chances you have to score.   The Browns have run 194 more offensive plays than their opponents.  A touchdown is scored 3.6% of offensive plays in the NFL so by running 194 more plays, the Browns have negated their -7 turnover ratio.

- The Browns possess the ball an average of 33:05 minutes per game while opponents average 26:54

So what's going to happen in Houston?   Hard game to predict but one thing is clear, the Browns have to continue to run more offensive plays than their opponent to continue to win.

The Texans are excellent at home and the Browns are not very good on the road.   The Texans have a +8 turnover ratio, the Browns are -7.  Both teams have serious injuries they are battling, the Texans won't have CJ Stroud, Brian Cashman and Will Anderson.  The list of injured Browns is too long to detail but lately Joe Flacco is doing a great job of making the huge loss of Deshaun Watson less painful and the Browns depth in their defensive backfield continues to pay dividends.

One injury that pretty much everyone is blind to is Myles Garrett who injured his shoulder against the Broncos so badly that he could not so much as put his shirt on without help after the game.  Since then, if you watch closely, Garrett has not been able to use his left arm the same way.

Suddenly Garrett is getting held more.   

 - Why?   Before he hurt his left shoulder Garrett was better able to utilize his left arm to fight off the holding of opposing tackles.

Garrett is not getting many tackles

   - Why?   Imagine tackling a professional football player if your left arm is at 20% of it's full function.  

Garrett is not getting sacks

  - Why?  See above

So why is Garrett even playing?   It's simple, even with Garrett playing with his left arm at 20% or less of it's full function, Garrett's speed is disruptive, it forces opponents to double team him and football is an easier game when your opponent must double team one of your defenders.   10 vs 9 is easier than 11 vs 11, get it?

I ask myself why all of the sudden are the Browns coaches talking up Garrett in press conferences every day?   I think in part it is in the hopes that opposing coaches decide to continue doubling Garrett in spite of stats and film that show Garrett is limited by injuries.

This should be a close game but look for the Texans to limit Garrett and double team him less.  Laremy Tunsil should be able to handle Garrett one on one and the Browns will probably move Garrett to the left side where he can use his right arm to fend off holds.  Garrett will draw more attention from Houston on the left side of Cleveland's D but moving Garrett will allow Tunsil to handle an easier foe on the other side.

Case Keenum will be careful and focus on short gains every play, the Texans will highlight Devin Singletary both running and catching short passes and bust a few plays which will be enough at home for them to win this one. 

The Brown BLog Predicts

Texans             17

Browns            13

The Brown BLog are 7-7 season to date

The Brown BLog Predicts: Overcoming obstacles

The Browns this season have endured injuries beyond any sense of reason.   The entire NFL in fact has been a bloodbath of serious injuries all season long, but the Browns have had more than their share, far more.

Yet the team keeps on winning.  At some point, even the most skeptical person has to step back and tip their hat to Kevin Stefanski.   His ability to keep the team on track must be acknowledged.

The Bears are playing well and Justin Fields is the style of QB who has given the Browns trouble this season.   He can run and he can throw deep. 

Furthermore, the Browns have suffered three more major injuries this week with Ogbo, Hurst and Grant Delpit being lost.   The Browns however still have enough talent and motivation to keep overcoming these immense obstacles.

Should the Browns win the Bears game it increases their already strong odds of grabbing a playoff spot.  With Joe Flacco playing well and a squad of motivated, united athletes working a solid gameplan at home, the Browns should pull this one off.

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns             24

Bears                17

The Brown BLog are 6-7 season to date. 

Brown BLog Predicts: Injuries

This is that part of the season where if you watch closely, it is not difficult to see that most NFL players are playing banged up.  It's a brutal game and teams don't want to sit their starters if at all possible.

Injuries might be the key today vs Jacksonville.   Last week against the Rams, Myles Garrett was shut out for the first time in his career.   No sacks, no tackles, no assists, no pressures.  That after a game the previous week where Garrett could not lift his arm after the game.  Neither Garrett nor the Browns are willing to admit how serious his injury might be and they both dismissed any suggestion that his injury had anything to do with being shut out.  Teams have been double and triple teaming Garrett as long as he's been in the league but we should believe it was the LA Rams who finally shut him down.   My eyes said Garrett is playing with an injury that 99% of athletes would not play with and watching the Rams game I believe Garrett avoided opportunities to make tackles more than once.  Why?  Because he cannot use his left arm and even one hit to that arm might seriously aggravate the injury.   So the Browns are playing Garrett as a decoy in my opinion.   That proves that Garrett is tough as nails but the concern here is that his injury prevents him from being anything more than a decoy.   As a decoy Garrett can still contribute because teams double team him so the game becomes 10 Browns defenders vs 9 offensive players but if Garrett truly cannot use his left arm, and I think the film shows that he is avoiding using his left arm, Jacksonville is not stupid, they watch film and I think they will test Garrett today if only to force him to use that arm and validate if he's really hurt.  

Bottom line is that the Browns defense with Garrett at less than 50% is not a dominant defense.   I think Garrett "is" less than 50% 

On the Jacksonville side, their franchise QB Trevor Lawrence has a very bad ankle injury.  I watched that one and find it difficult to believe his ankle is sprained.   It looked like a dislocation to me.  Dislocations can happen without bones breaking or ligaments tearing, but once you dislocate any joint, the threat of it dislocating again is serious and healing can take months.  That said, dislocations often "pop back into place" and ankles can be protected by tape and braces so maybe Lawrence can play, albeit risking new dislocations but I would bet that Doug Pederson lands on resting his QB for a few weeks including today against the Browns. 

So which is worse, the Browns with Garrett playing on one arm or the Jags without Trevor Lawrence?

I am going with the Jaguars today, I think CJ Beathard is an experienced solid backup who will execute his game plan.   Unlike Kevin Stefanski, Doug Pederson knows how to win with his backup QB, the Jags will be patient and wait for the Browns to do something stupid.  The weather may be a factor too, lending a hand to whichever team is willing to win ugly.  That too causes me to lean towards the road team today. 

The Brown BLog Predicts

Jacksonville             17

Browns                    13

The Brown BLog are 6-6 season to date.

Leveraging Every Advantage

Kevin Stefanski has refused to reveal who will be the starting QB for the Browns this week against Jacksonsville.  Most pundits believe that Stefanski hopes to force the Jaguars coaching staff to prepare for both Joe Flacco and Dorian Thompson Robinson.  By diluting their opponents prep time, an advantage is created for the Browns!

One might dismiss this because it cannot be that difficult for an opponent to prepare for DTR since as a QB he basically is a less accurate version of Cody Kessler, but in fact, the Brown BLog can confirm that Coach Stefanski's strategy is working.

Our sources indicate that Doug Pederson and his staff have spent over two hours praying that Stefanski starts Dorian Thompson Robinson!   

 

Brown BLog Predicts: Odds are against winning ugly.

When I think about predicting the outcome of a given game, I always start with the thought, what if these two teams played 10 games?   If the Browns played the Rams in Los Angeles ten times today I do believe the Rams would win 6 or 7 times.  So as Lloyd Christmas might say, "you are telling me there is a chance!".  Indeed, if the Browns defense plays well which is something they've done all season, the Browns could win today if Kevin Stefanski is willing to "win ugly".  What is winning ugly?  It is something Bill Parcells and Marty Schottenheimer knew how to do.  You can tilt the odds in your favor in a game where you are apparently likely to lose, if you use the clock and leverage your teams strengths.  The Browns are in trouble due to injuries on offense, but they have a great D.   Run the damn clock and you move the odds of winning in your favor by limiting your opponents time of possession. 

The problem with that is that Paul DePodesta and Kevin Stefanski just hate winning ugly.   Don't get me wrong, Kevin Stefanski does something that most Browns Head Coaches during the rather ugly and sleezy Haslam era did not.   Stefanski has his team ready to compete almost every Sunday but he just cannot resist trying to be cute once or twice in any given game. 

As Jim Schwartz was quoted this week when asked about analytics, "football is not played in a vacuum".  So why is it that in a cold weather game, Kevin Stefanski called a double reverse with a QB who had just entered the game, PJ Walker, and another player, Pierre Strong, who also had barely a snap on offense?   Why?  Because our 80's corner bar Archie Bunker drunk, Paul DePodesta must have told him that the Broncos would never imagine that the Browns would be stupid enough to run a double reverse with two cold players (literally and figuratively).   It always works after all!   Throw a long pass with your backup QB on 4th and 1??   Sure fire Browns Touchdown!  Hooray!  

Instead, the Broncos had done their homework.  They knew damn well that the Browns are apt to do stupid things so their defenders understood to be patient against the Browns offense and make their reads.  Result?  There were not one but two Broncos ready to crush Pierre Strong on the double reserve, which Mr. Strong obviously noted, because he fumbled the pitch to him. 

End of game.

The scenario in which the Browns win today involves running the ball 60% or more and passing with veteran Joe Flacco very conservatively.  

The Browns won't do that because analytics says there is no such thing as winning ugly and that if you study the statistics enough, you will discover human beings can indeed be coached to perform like robots.   

The Brown BLog predicts

Rams        26

Brown      17

The Brown BLog are 5-6 season to date.