BL Predicts: Week 12 vs Bills

Until last weekend, I thought that the fact that the Browns have managed to continue to win while being decimated by injuries was a tribute to team unity and game planning.   The win against the Falcons also convinced me that even with the injuries, people like myself have ignored the fact that the Browns also have talent that still differentiates them.   Players like Joel Bitonio are playing at a Pro Bowl level and are a significant upgrade to the team vis a vis the 2013 season.   Add in Josh Gordon who is the most talented receiver in the game and the Browns can compete with anyone.  Mike Pettine knows the value of running the clock down via a ground attack and so this team is going to compete every week.

This week we face a Bills defense that is rated as one of the best in the NFL both against the run and pass.   The Bills O, led by Kyle Orton, does not turn the ball over.

All of the above leads to what surely will be a close battle Sunday in Buffalo.

Injuries once again could prove to be the difference.  Losing Gibson is another massive loss but what I've noticed against Atlanta however is one injury nobody is aware of.   Against the Texans, late in the game, Brian Hoyer took a heavy hit and had to fight to recover his senses.   He's not been the same since and my best guess is he's very banged up.   The 3 intercepts against the Falcons stand as evidence.   Hoyer hasn't performed that badly in his career and the Falcons are not even that good a team.   I saw a tentative Hoyer, who appeared to be playing in pain.

Look for a close game, I hope I'm wrong but I see the Bills holding on for a win against the Browns

BL Predicts

Buffalo    21
Browns    13

The BL are 5-6 year to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 11 vs Falcons

Just about everything is working against the Browns in their matchup vs Atlanta this week:

- The Browns are on the road
- The Falcons are on a roll
- The Falcons play a 4-3 defense which is the best formation to stop the zone blocking running scheme that the Browns run
- Matt Ryan and his offense play well at home.
- The Browns have been decimated by injuries and go into this weeks game losing their QB on defense in Dansby along with key pass rusher Jabaal Sheard.   Dansby is much better than Craig Robertson in pass coverage and look for the Falcons to exploit Robertson.

Josh Gordon's return could be a major boost to the Browns but both Gordon and the offense may need time to adjust to each other and Gordon likely needs reps to get back to full game speed.  I'd be pleasantly surprised if Gordon is a game changer out of the box.

The Falcon's defense is not good and neither is the Browns but the trends on the two units appear headed in opposite directions.   The Falcons D has given up 17 points in each of the last two weeks whereas the Browns have lost key players to injuries and played poorly vs Houston.

BL Predicts:

Falcons     30
Browns     17


The BL are 5-5 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.  

BL Predicts: Week 10 vs Texans

Concern is the operative word for today's match up vs the Texans.   While part of the caution is due to still not being able to believe the Browns are for real after so many years of losing, part of the nervousness about today's game is simply sound analysis of the facts:

- The Browns have been severely damaged by injuries.   Now Phil Taylor is gone for the season.  He joins Alex Mack, Jordan Cameron, Johnson Bademosi, John Hughes, Armonty Bryant and the suspended Josh Gordon.  It's a tribute to the coaching of the Browns that they continue to win.  I've also noticed center Nick McDonald limping severely late against Cincinnati.

- The Texans have lost 5 games this year but each time they've lost it's been a battle.  Today against the Browns the Texans have top draft pick Jadeveon Clowney coming back.   

- Several of the Browns opponents have successfully schemed their defense to stop the Browns running game but no opponent has really found a way to limit Brian Hoyer on play action naked role outs.   However the Texans have JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney and let's imagine "what if" the Texans guess correctly a few times that Hoyer will pass off play action.  Hoyer would get crushed.

There are also some points of major concern for Houston:

- They're on the road vs Cleveland and we all know the home team wins 58% in the NFL.

- The Texans will miss Arian Foster.

- Most importantly, the Texans will start a QB who will play for the first time in an NFL game.   Ryan Mallett is not a rookie however.  He is a third year vet who's had plenty of time to get ready for his NFL debut and he's had a lot of time while with the Pats to study Mike Pettine's defense. 

Mallett starting his first game is a concern for Houston but it's also a major concern for Cleveland.  We don't have game film on this guy.  Cleveland knows how important this is.  For example, early in his miserable career, Brandon Weeden had a few decent games but once there was plenty of film for teams to study, it became clear that Weeden could be easily confused and he buckled under pressure.   Once NFL teams figured this out, Weeden never won another NFL game.  Look for Cleveland to make every effort to put Mallet under pressure but he may well be prepared for this.  

So how will the Browns play today vs Houston?:

This is going to be a very close game.  Coach Pettine's decision to keep running the ball eats valuable time off the clock which assures close games and Brian Hoyer has made wise decisions when passing.

Ryan Mallett starts in the NFL for the first time and the Browns will likely blitz him a lot.  Houston knows this and may well be ready with quick passes and deception. 

There's so much riding on this game for Cleveland.  If they arrive to 7-3 their odds of making the playoffs go through the roof.  Too good to be true?   We are jaded, aren't we fellow Browns fans.

I think the Browns are too banged up and Ryan Mallett will be able to establish a rhythm that goes against what the Browns are planning for.  I am also very worried that Brian Hoyer will be injured as the Texans plan to attack him on likely play actions.   We may very well see Johnny Football today due to Hoyer getting banged up and if we do, he won't play as well as Hoyer.     

BL Predicts:

Texans    24

Browns   20

The BL are 4-5 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.  

BL Predicts: Week 9 vs the Bungles - Beating the odds?

Can the Browns beat the odds and walk away with a W in Cincy tomorrow evening even though there are are numerous factors stacked against them?

* Cincinnati has not lost a regular season home game since the 2012 season and the Bengals are returning to full strength with AJ Green no longer injured, and while Giovani Bernard is hurt, the Bengals have Jeremy Hill emerging as a potential game changing talent in their backfield. 

* The Browns have been poor on the road this season at 1-2 including an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars.

* The Browns have been badly decimated by injuries and the suspension of key players.  Alex Mack, Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron & Phil Taylor.   There is a risk that Andrew Hawkins won't play Thursday evening and a key special teams player, Johnson Bademosi is out too.

In the aggregate these factors say the odds are the Browns will lose but on the plus side the Browns are playing as a team with a QB that is a courageous leader who inspires his teammates.  Emotion is a big part of a football game and the Browns might have an emotional edge Thursday evening.   Will that be enough?

What about coaching and game plans?

The Bengals will play it very conventional Thursday night, doing the things on offense and defense that they always do.   The Browns know what to expect.   I see the Browns, on the other hand, changing tendencies they've shown year to date, debuting some new plays and perhaps even some trickery.

The Browns will give the Bengals all they can handle for 2-3 quarters but in the end the Bungles will simply wear out the Browns, who have suffered too many injuries.  The Browns will give us something to cheer for tomorrow but in the end I think the Bengals will win.

BL Predicts

Browns        24

Bengals        31

The BL are 4-4 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games .

BL Predicts: Week 8 - Browns vs Bucs

Last week, Donte Whitner's game changing tackle forced a turnover and stopped an Oakland drive.   Entire season's can hinge on plays like that and we have to tip our hat to Whitner because he truly earned his pay and then some last week.   Oakland, in spite of their winless record, is a team with excellent talent, they just haven't put it together yet.

This week however, the Browns play a team that has holes everywhere.   Tampa run a 4-3 defense which is ideally suited to stopping zone blocking run offenses but the Bucs also don't have the same talent level as Oakland and Jacksonville.   I see the Browns being able to run the ball against Tampa.

For Cleveland more than any team in the NFL, our run game opens up the pass game.

The Brown Log see the last easy win of the season for the home team.

BL Predicts

Browns        27

Tampa Bay  13

The BL, for the first time in this blogs history, are below .500 for the season, with a 3-4 record predicting the winner of Browns games.   It simply gets a bit harder to foresee the winner when the Browns don't lose 80% of their games.   

BL Predicts: Week 7 - This "is" still the Cleveland Browns people

In face of all rational logic, I just have a bad feeling this week folks.

This game will be the true test of Mike Pettine in his farewell season as Browns head coach.  Jimmy Haslam has proven to Cleveland fans that he demands short term perfection even if success in the NFL requires long term commitment.  Pettine knows he is on the spot right now, fighting for his job but I don't see Cleveland being healthy enough, talented enough and experienced enough to make this the season that the Browns pull off a worst to first type of transformation.

Derek Carr is a rookie QB but he has shown signs that he is ready to emerge.  Furthermore against the Brown's break but don't bend defense, Carr has the type of arm that can break big plays.  The Browns D is banged up, Carr just might be ready for a big game in what looks to be unseasonably good weather Sunday in Cleveland.

Last week the Jaguars gave the NFL a blueprint on how to control the Browns zone blocking scheme.   The Raiders run a 4-3 which is the perfect formation to counter zone blocking.   Defensive linemen need to penetrate, stay in their lanes and let linebackers do their job.

Once you defang the Browns run game, Brian Hoyer transforms into just another average QB.  The Raiders have struggled against big armed QB's this season but against Tom Brady, who Brian Hoyer is often compared to, the Raiders had a very respectable showing, holding Brady and the Pats to 16 points.   With Hoyer forced into obvious passing situations, the Raiders can pin their ears back and pressure him into incompletions and costly mistakes.

On offense, Derek Carr has shown, in the words of Mike Pettine, that he can make all the passes.   The Browns and their 12 defensive backs will have their hands full, especially if the Raiders are able to run the ball early.  I'm going with a season deflating upset.

BL Predicts:

Raiders     28
Browns     17

The BL are 3-3 year to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 6 vs the lowly Jags

A lot of Browns fans are counting on an easy win Sunday in Jacksonville.  I agree on one count only.   The Browns are going to win, but it won't be easy.

After Alex Mack left the Steelers game last Sunday with his season ending injury, I focused my binoculars on John Greco and Paul McQuistan.   I was impressed by both, the Browns didn't lose a beat as both Greco and McQuistan were particularly dominant while run blocking.  The zone blocking scheme of Kyle Shanahan stood out.  The Browns were successful to move the entire Steelers defense en masse, at times it seemed to me that the Steelers D played into the Browns hands by trying to move with their blockers towards the Browns running back.   Penetrate gaps and hold your lane is what I was thinking Steelers defenders should do.   Reading up this week on tactics to stop a zone blocking scheme verified my thoughts.  Zone blocking is best countered with a 4-3 lineup whose lineman penetrate and stay in lanes.  Let the outside linebackers do their job to contain and the middle linebacker must make a lot of tackles.

If I am Jacksonville, I'm going to focus on stopping the Browns zone running by playing a lot of 4-3 and daring Hoyer to pass.  I think this strategy will in fact work and the Jags will hold the Browns offense a season low in points.

That brings us to the other major factor this week.   A rookie QB with penchant for pick 6's.   There's a reason coaches hate rookies and Blake Bortles is showing us that reason.   He has given up 3 pick 6's this season.   At times he has looked great, many others he's looked like, well, Brandon Weeden.   in the Hoyer vs Bortles matchup, I'm guessing Hoyer will make fewer mistakes and that will be the difference this week.   The only thing that could really muddy my prediction up is if, instead of passing, when in doubt, Bortles runs the ball.   Then we could have a major problem, but I think the Browns will bottle him up no matter what he does.

In what will be a close one, I see our Browns sneaking out of Florida with a W.

BL Predicts

Browns    19
Jags          17


The BL are 3-2 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Browns vs Steelers, Ch ch ch changes

For nearly 4 years, predicting the Browns to lose nearly every week has provided the Brown Log with tangible evidence of our ability to see and predict the future with stunning accuracy.  However, last Sunday in Tennessee may have provided evidence that the times they are a changing.

The 2014 season will turn on what happens Sunday vs the Steelers and there are three keys to the game.

First, Joe Haden must find a way to play.  Ben Roethlisberer abused Justin Gilbert every chance he had in the season opener and the Browns have to find a way to keep Gilbert off the field.

Second, the Browns must put strong pressure on Big Ben.

Third our offense has to continue to move the ball on the ground and keep the ball out of Pittsburgh's hands. 

For the first time in a long time, the Brown Log believes that the Browns will actually win a game.

BL Predicts:

Browns   23

Steelers   21 

The BL are 2-2 season to date in predicting the winner of Browns games. 

BL Predicts: Browns vs Titans without rose colored glasses

The home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL.   That's a fact so when predicting a road team to win in the NFL, you must have a strong reason because the odds are stacked against the road team.

Browns fans wear rose colored glasses more than any fans in the league, hence the majority of Clevelanders predict a win this Sunday in Nashville.   Pundits expect the Browns to improve significantly Sunday and they probably will get better in certain phases of the game.  Our D in fact, can't get much worse.   However don't expect that the Titans were sitting around looking for ways to get worse.  They too will get better this Sunday.

So while the Browns should improve their defense, the team will digress in other phases of the game.  The Browns are the only team in the entire NFL without a turnover this season and look for that streak to end Sunday under the pressure of a rowdy home crowd in Nashville and an aggressive Titans defense led by Ray Horton that focuses on creating turnovers.   On the road, turnovers often make the difference and I expect the Browns to make up for lost time Sunday with at least two turnovers.

We see the Browns losing a tight one Sunday in which a few key turnovers will impact the result of a close battle

BL Predicts

Titans       19
Browns    13

The BL are 2-1 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

"Play Like a Brown" Award: Week 3 - Kyle Fuller

The Brown Log have created a new weekly feature.   Each week we will chose the best player from that week's NFL games and bestow on him the "Playing like a Brown" honor.

This week the player who most demonstrated the skill and toughness on the field of play to be honored as "Playing like a Brown", was Kyle Fuller of the Bears whose interception and hard nosed defense helped the Bears beat the Jets on the road.

One fun fact that I think most Browns fans are aware of is that Kyle Fuller was picked with the number 14 pick in last years NFL draft.

Congrats Kyle!

Light at the end of the tunnel for the Browns?

As a Clevelander, it frustrates me that the same fans who are critical of anything that happens to the Cleveland Indians, who were just eliminated from the playoff hunt with two games remaining in their season, are somehow able to see a light at the end of the tunnel in 2014 for the Cleveland Browns.

In spite of over a decade of evidence to the contrary, Browns fans assume that the 2014 season will be different because there were some good signs in the first three games of the season.   There are two problems with that assumption:

1.  Many fans assume that the Browns will improve in upcoming games because the off week gives the squad time to work on correcting issues the team has on defense and on special teams.   I'm certain that the Browns will improve the team over the bye week, but there are 31 other teams in the NFL that are busily focused on improving.    The idea that the 3 extra days of prep that players have during bye week will magically allow the Browns to surpass NFL teams and start a winning run is utterly naive. 

2.  If you've ever run an organization that includes more than 50 people, you understand that human nature is such that bad times provoke turbulence on any team.   We are going to find out how good a leader Mike Pettine is.    One thing is for certain, there is no way that it's all "peace and love" in the Browns locker room.  No organization of dozens of men is EVER perfectly motivated.   My main worry is driven by Pettine's public criticism of Joe Haden.   Pettine's D is very much different from that of Ray Horton, our last defensive coordinator.  Haden became a Pro Bowl Corner in Horton's D.  In Pettine's scheme much additional pressure is being put on Haden who has allowed some big plays.   In an obvious reference to Haden, Pettine publicly commented last week that big name players have to play big time football.    In Pettine's scheme, Haden is asked to play on the right side and the left side of the defense.   Under Horton, Haden usually stuck to the left side of the field.   It's not as simple as saying "cover that guy" when you change sides of the field and surely Haden must be irritated to be raised up as the banner boy by Pettine for the entire team's failure.

Haden is very popular with his teammates and if he starts to complain behind the scenes that this high school coach and his radical changes are the reason behind Haden's woes, what we will witness against Tennessee is that new problems may crop up.

Teams that lose focus and unity do things like fumble the football, throw interceptions and give up more big plays.  Will Pettine be able to hold the team together AND publicly criticize leading players on the team.  Maybe he will, in about one week, we damn sure are going to find out.

It's a certainty that in losing times, Pettine's leadership of the team will be challenged in some way, and unlike past losing teams he coached like the 2012 Jets or the 2013 Bills, this time it will come entirely down to him to solve player rebellions.  Pettine may well emerge from these tough times consolidating his position as leader or he may drive the team into the gutter.   It'll be fun to watch but as for the 2014 season thus far the Browns have won 33% of their games.   To expect them to exceed this percentage during the remainder of the 2014 season is unrealistic.   

BL Predicts: Pavlov's Dawg Pound & Week 3 vs the Ravens

I'm always happy to be wrong when I predict the Browns to lose but much like Pavlov's Dog, predicting the Browns to lose has provided me years of evidence that I can accurately see into the future.   In other words, in spite of some good signs provided last Sunday by our Browns, I am not quite ready to jump on the Browns Super Bowl bandwagon.

In what will likely be a hard fought defensive battle that comes down to the 4th quarter, I see the Ravens defense handling the Browns running game and putting pressure on Hoyer when he passes.  I also see the Ravens experience giving them an edge on offense.   The Browns D on numerous occasions used 7 defensive backs against the Saints, who lost the entire 1st quarter before they figured out a plan to counter punch.   I think the Ravens offense will be ready for all of the Browns potential curve balls and that resulting big plays will be the difference.

BL Predicts:

Ravens    24
Browns   17


The BL are 1-1 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

NFL fans: Just who really are the hypocrites???

NFL fans have been looking the other way for 30 years pretending we don't know players use steroids because while PED use is known to make humans significantly more violent, it also has raised the level of play in the NFL to spectacular levels. That we all express surprise when one of our robots blows up seems a bit naive. They've been detonating like dynamite for 30 years, it's just that social media now puts it in everyone's face so we can't ignore it