Brown BLog: NFL Playoff Predictions - Wild Card Round

 A fun slate of games are teed up for this frigid weekend and the Brown BLog is ready to predict them all.

Browns at Texans

CJ Stroud has been playing like a polished veteran all season while the Browns defense is the NFL's best all season long.   The Browns are deeper and my bet is CJ Stroud finally makes a few rookie errors with his first taste of NFL Playoff football.

Brown BLog Predicts:   Browns 30    Texans 20

Dolphins at Chiefs

I like Patrick Mahomes and Taylor Swift to lift the Chiefs over the banged up, gimmick dependent Dolphins..

Brown BLog Predicts:      Chiefs 27     Dolphins 24

Steelers at Bills

Buffalo are playing at their best at the perfect time while the Steelers are also hot however they are missing TJ Watt.   It all points to a solid win for the Bills

Brown BLog Predicts:         Bills 23    Steelers 13

Packers at Cowboys

Jordan Love had an Aaron Rodgers like game to get the Pack into the playoffs however on the road in Dallas against the deep and hungry Cowboys is too much to ask.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Cowboys  31    Packers 17

Rams at Lions

Everyone is in love with Sean McVay and his play calling.   I prefer Dan Campbell's leadership to light a new path for the Lions.

Brown BLog Predicts:        Lions 38        Rams 28

Eagles at Buccaneers 

The Eagles are in the midst of a late season collapse that most pundits believe they will put behind them against the Buccaneers.    It is rare that the favorites win every game in a given NFL playoff round and I see Baker Mayfield rising up, having a good game and helping lead his team to an upset Monday evening against the Eagles

Brown BLog Predicts:        Buccaneers  23   Eagles 21

Brown BLog Predicts: Get Ready!

The toughest game of the season to predict is today vs the Bengals because neither team have much to play for.   The Browns are getting ready for the post season and the Bengals are getting ready for the off season.  

The Bengals however have Ja'Marr Chase who is "chasing" several season records.  I listen the the Bengals Booth Podcast  which is excellent and they have often interviewed Ja'Marr Chase and one thing that comes through is he is extremely competitive and goal oriented.  With Chase on the field against many Browns backups, and the Browns fielding a journeyman QB who was on the Arizona practice squad two weeks ago, I see this game clearly going to the Bengals.

I've predicted the Browns to lose more than I have predicted them to win this year, mostly because 24 years of losing has me extremely slow to buy into this team.  Well, I am bought in now to the Browns. Today's prediction of a loss has nothing to do lost faith, I simply believe without Myles Garrett the Browns D is a different defense, they will be playing 11 vs 11 instead of 10 vs 9 today.  Add in Ja'Marr "chasing" his records and a backup to the backup to the backup to the backup QB on the field today for Cleveland and it is hard to imagine a win on the road.

Brown BLog Predicts

Bengals 27

Browns  16

The Brown BLog are 8-8 season to date

Brown BLog Predicts: Jets

The Jets led by Trevor Siemian are not going to beat a red hot Browns team looking to clinch a playoff spot 

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns 27

Jets 13

The Brown BLog are 7-8 season to date

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 14 vs Texans

In spite of turning the ball over more than their opponents the majority of their games this season, the Browns are winning.   Why?  Because their defense has been fantastic.  

A few statistics tell the tale:

- The Browns have run 1001 offensive plays this season while their opponents have run 807.    It's simple, the more plays you run the more chances you have to score.   The Browns have run 194 more offensive plays than their opponents.  A touchdown is scored 3.6% of offensive plays in the NFL so by running 194 more plays, the Browns have negated their -7 turnover ratio.

- The Browns possess the ball an average of 33:05 minutes per game while opponents average 26:54

So what's going to happen in Houston?   Hard game to predict but one thing is clear, the Browns have to continue to run more offensive plays than their opponent to continue to win.

The Texans are excellent at home and the Browns are not very good on the road.   The Texans have a +8 turnover ratio, the Browns are -7.  Both teams have serious injuries they are battling, the Texans won't have CJ Stroud, Brian Cashman and Will Anderson.  The list of injured Browns is too long to detail but lately Joe Flacco is doing a great job of making the huge loss of Deshaun Watson less painful and the Browns depth in their defensive backfield continues to pay dividends.

One injury that pretty much everyone is blind to is Myles Garrett who injured his shoulder against the Broncos so badly that he could not so much as put his shirt on without help after the game.  Since then, if you watch closely, Garrett has not been able to use his left arm the same way.

Suddenly Garrett is getting held more.   

 - Why?   Before he hurt his left shoulder Garrett was better able to utilize his left arm to fight off the holding of opposing tackles.

Garrett is not getting many tackles

   - Why?   Imagine tackling a professional football player if your left arm is at 20% of it's full function.  

Garrett is not getting sacks

  - Why?  See above

So why is Garrett even playing?   It's simple, even with Garrett playing with his left arm at 20% or less of it's full function, Garrett's speed is disruptive, it forces opponents to double team him and football is an easier game when your opponent must double team one of your defenders.   10 vs 9 is easier than 11 vs 11, get it?

I ask myself why all of the sudden are the Browns coaches talking up Garrett in press conferences every day?   I think in part it is in the hopes that opposing coaches decide to continue doubling Garrett in spite of stats and film that show Garrett is limited by injuries.

This should be a close game but look for the Texans to limit Garrett and double team him less.  Laremy Tunsil should be able to handle Garrett one on one and the Browns will probably move Garrett to the left side where he can use his right arm to fend off holds.  Garrett will draw more attention from Houston on the left side of Cleveland's D but moving Garrett will allow Tunsil to handle an easier foe on the other side.

Case Keenum will be careful and focus on short gains every play, the Texans will highlight Devin Singletary both running and catching short passes and bust a few plays which will be enough at home for them to win this one. 

The Brown BLog Predicts

Texans             17

Browns            13

The Brown BLog are 7-7 season to date

The Brown BLog Predicts: Overcoming obstacles

The Browns this season have endured injuries beyond any sense of reason.   The entire NFL in fact has been a bloodbath of serious injuries all season long, but the Browns have had more than their share, far more.

Yet the team keeps on winning.  At some point, even the most skeptical person has to step back and tip their hat to Kevin Stefanski.   His ability to keep the team on track must be acknowledged.

The Bears are playing well and Justin Fields is the style of QB who has given the Browns trouble this season.   He can run and he can throw deep. 

Furthermore, the Browns have suffered three more major injuries this week with Ogbo, Hurst and Grant Delpit being lost.   The Browns however still have enough talent and motivation to keep overcoming these immense obstacles.

Should the Browns win the Bears game it increases their already strong odds of grabbing a playoff spot.  With Joe Flacco playing well and a squad of motivated, united athletes working a solid gameplan at home, the Browns should pull this one off.

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns             24

Bears                17

The Brown BLog are 6-7 season to date. 

Brown BLog Predicts: Injuries

This is that part of the season where if you watch closely, it is not difficult to see that most NFL players are playing banged up.  It's a brutal game and teams don't want to sit their starters if at all possible.

Injuries might be the key today vs Jacksonville.   Last week against the Rams, Myles Garrett was shut out for the first time in his career.   No sacks, no tackles, no assists, no pressures.  That after a game the previous week where Garrett could not lift his arm after the game.  Neither Garrett nor the Browns are willing to admit how serious his injury might be and they both dismissed any suggestion that his injury had anything to do with being shut out.  Teams have been double and triple teaming Garrett as long as he's been in the league but we should believe it was the LA Rams who finally shut him down.   My eyes said Garrett is playing with an injury that 99% of athletes would not play with and watching the Rams game I believe Garrett avoided opportunities to make tackles more than once.  Why?  Because he cannot use his left arm and even one hit to that arm might seriously aggravate the injury.   So the Browns are playing Garrett as a decoy in my opinion.   That proves that Garrett is tough as nails but the concern here is that his injury prevents him from being anything more than a decoy.   As a decoy Garrett can still contribute because teams double team him so the game becomes 10 Browns defenders vs 9 offensive players but if Garrett truly cannot use his left arm, and I think the film shows that he is avoiding using his left arm, Jacksonville is not stupid, they watch film and I think they will test Garrett today if only to force him to use that arm and validate if he's really hurt.  

Bottom line is that the Browns defense with Garrett at less than 50% is not a dominant defense.   I think Garrett "is" less than 50% 

On the Jacksonville side, their franchise QB Trevor Lawrence has a very bad ankle injury.  I watched that one and find it difficult to believe his ankle is sprained.   It looked like a dislocation to me.  Dislocations can happen without bones breaking or ligaments tearing, but once you dislocate any joint, the threat of it dislocating again is serious and healing can take months.  That said, dislocations often "pop back into place" and ankles can be protected by tape and braces so maybe Lawrence can play, albeit risking new dislocations but I would bet that Doug Pederson lands on resting his QB for a few weeks including today against the Browns. 

So which is worse, the Browns with Garrett playing on one arm or the Jags without Trevor Lawrence?

I am going with the Jaguars today, I think CJ Beathard is an experienced solid backup who will execute his game plan.   Unlike Kevin Stefanski, Doug Pederson knows how to win with his backup QB, the Jags will be patient and wait for the Browns to do something stupid.  The weather may be a factor too, lending a hand to whichever team is willing to win ugly.  That too causes me to lean towards the road team today. 

The Brown BLog Predicts

Jacksonville             17

Browns                    13

The Brown BLog are 6-6 season to date.

Leveraging Every Advantage

Kevin Stefanski has refused to reveal who will be the starting QB for the Browns this week against Jacksonsville.  Most pundits believe that Stefanski hopes to force the Jaguars coaching staff to prepare for both Joe Flacco and Dorian Thompson Robinson.  By diluting their opponents prep time, an advantage is created for the Browns!

One might dismiss this because it cannot be that difficult for an opponent to prepare for DTR since as a QB he basically is a less accurate version of Cody Kessler, but in fact, the Brown BLog can confirm that Coach Stefanski's strategy is working.

Our sources indicate that Doug Pederson and his staff have spent over two hours praying that Stefanski starts Dorian Thompson Robinson!   

 

Brown BLog Predicts: Odds are against winning ugly.

When I think about predicting the outcome of a given game, I always start with the thought, what if these two teams played 10 games?   If the Browns played the Rams in Los Angeles ten times today I do believe the Rams would win 6 or 7 times.  So as Lloyd Christmas might say, "you are telling me there is a chance!".  Indeed, if the Browns defense plays well which is something they've done all season, the Browns could win today if Kevin Stefanski is willing to "win ugly".  What is winning ugly?  It is something Bill Parcells and Marty Schottenheimer knew how to do.  You can tilt the odds in your favor in a game where you are apparently likely to lose, if you use the clock and leverage your teams strengths.  The Browns are in trouble due to injuries on offense, but they have a great D.   Run the damn clock and you move the odds of winning in your favor by limiting your opponents time of possession. 

The problem with that is that Paul DePodesta and Kevin Stefanski just hate winning ugly.   Don't get me wrong, Kevin Stefanski does something that most Browns Head Coaches during the rather ugly and sleezy Haslam era did not.   Stefanski has his team ready to compete almost every Sunday but he just cannot resist trying to be cute once or twice in any given game. 

As Jim Schwartz was quoted this week when asked about analytics, "football is not played in a vacuum".  So why is it that in a cold weather game, Kevin Stefanski called a double reverse with a QB who had just entered the game, PJ Walker, and another player, Pierre Strong, who also had barely a snap on offense?   Why?  Because our 80's corner bar Archie Bunker drunk, Paul DePodesta must have told him that the Broncos would never imagine that the Browns would be stupid enough to run a double reverse with two cold players (literally and figuratively).   It always works after all!   Throw a long pass with your backup QB on 4th and 1??   Sure fire Browns Touchdown!  Hooray!  

Instead, the Broncos had done their homework.  They knew damn well that the Browns are apt to do stupid things so their defenders understood to be patient against the Browns offense and make their reads.  Result?  There were not one but two Broncos ready to crush Pierre Strong on the double reserve, which Mr. Strong obviously noted, because he fumbled the pitch to him. 

End of game.

The scenario in which the Browns win today involves running the ball 60% or more and passing with veteran Joe Flacco very conservatively.  

The Browns won't do that because analytics says there is no such thing as winning ugly and that if you study the statistics enough, you will discover human beings can indeed be coached to perform like robots.   

The Brown BLog predicts

Rams        26

Brown      17

The Brown BLog are 5-6 season to date. 

Brown BLog Predicts: Doubling Down

 Over the 10 + years The Brown BLog have predicted Browns games, we have always had a winning record.  I probably came to believe that I actually know what I am talking about but truth be told, I usually predicted the Browns to lose and frankly, for as long as most can remember, predicting the Browns to lose is a winning formula.

This year the Brown BLog is 4-6 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.  Why?  Because more often than not, we see the Browns losing.

So maybe just maybe the 2023 Browns will make believers out of us naysayers?   Well, maybe but my view today is that even a homer should think seriously about the Browns chances of winning today.   But homers will all line up saying the Browns will win.  

Of course, the Brown BLog is doubling down on losing. 

Why double down on losing?

- It is extremely hard to win in Denver.  The average NFL home team wins about 56% of the time.  The Bronco's all time home winning percentage is about 63%

- Russell Wilson may be getting up there in years, but he can still run if he needs to and to beat the Browns amazing defense, the opposing QB has to rack up at least a handful of big runs.   

- Dorian Thompson Robinson took a solid step up vs the Steelers but he is a rookie and he still played mostly poorly vs the Steelers.  He has potential but he's a warm weather rookie QB playing his first NFL road game in one of the hardest stadiums for any visiting NFL team.   And the weather promises to be extremely cold.

- Last but not least Denzel Ward is out today.  That hurts, big time. 

Look for DTR to struggle.   Look for Russell Wilson to play well and look for the Browns to lose

The Brown BLog Predicts

Denver          20

Browns         10

The Brown Blog are 4-6 season to date.

Ohio's Football Tradition: Ohio State vs Michigan

If you want to understand the passion for football in Ohio, look no further than Ohio State Football.

Steeped in tradition, Buckeye football is nearly a religious experience on any given fall Saturday in Ohio.   Generations of Ohioans love their Buckeyes and sometimes the passion is so intense that it can be nearly embarrassing.   But passion it is.

Embarrassing?   Well, try attending an Ohio State vs Michigan game in Ann Arbor, Michigan and you might see what I mean.  Fans in Ann Arbor are polite and respectful of Ohio State fans which stands in sharp contrast to the behavior of many Buckeye fans at any home game in Columbus.

The Ohio State University themselves actually encourage this behavior with the relatively new and mostly not funny tradition of "crossing out" the M in many communications that the University themselves produce during Michigan week.   It is an utterly stupid, pointless and relatively new tradition that should be done away with.   

Why, ask you?

Stupid - Because effectively an institution of higher learning is defacing public property and encouraging poor spelling. 

Pointless - Because at it's worst, the demonization of the letter M encourages poor sportsmanship.

I hope the Buckeyes win this weekend, but you won't catch me getting caught up crossing out M's and hopefully someday our great University will find something positive to do during Michigan week.

The Brown BLog Predicts: Game 10 vs the Steelers - Experience

The Browns, under the leadership of Paul DePodesta, have spent much of the last 7 years doing two things:

 

- Losing games

- Trying desperately to prove conventional wisdom wrong 

Today vs the Steelers conventional wisdom says that a rookie QB will struggle.  In fact, as a case in point, the Browns even have data to prove that Damian Thompson-Robinson is going to struggle.   His performance in his first game vs the Ravens.   But let's ignore that data, after all, DTR, who was the Browns backup QB at the time, did not have a week to prepare as a starter when he played vs the Ravens.  Some message there, if you are a backup on the Browns, you are apparently excused for poor performance and preparation if you are a backup.

But Brock Purdy played well last year and he was the last pick in the 2022 draft!  Yes, he did but there are hundreds of other QBs who struggled in their rookie season.  Ignore that data?  Why not.

DTR starts today vs the Steelers.   The Browns know that PJ Walker gives them better odds of winning, data proves that however they must keep one foot in the future, and they believe DTR can improve his future value by playing now and there is no doubt that they believe that the Browns can go 4-4 with DTR at the commands.   

So get ready for a wild ride today knowing that the Browns still have games against the Jets, Bears, the Bengals without Burrow and the Rams.   Win every one of them for sure!   Even with a bad QB?   

Let's see

The Brown BLog Predict that our defense will be just fine but DTR won't

Steelers  30

Browns  10

The Brown BLog are 4-5 predicting Browns games this season.

Drinking the Kool Aid?

Either the Browns believe they can shape their future by the power of positive thinking or they are simply unwilling to face reality.   This week pushes all of the limits of their ability to spin.

SPIN FAILURES

1. You read it on the Brown BLog weeks ago that Deshaun Watson was heading towards a season ending shoulder injury.   Micro tears are STRUCTURAL damage because strong muscles support the shoulder structure and Watson's muscles were micro torn.  I felt you could see this season ended injury coming from miles away.  I guess Berea is simply too close to see it coming.  

2. The next big spin failure is one that we will have to confront this Sunday.   Our new spin is that DTR's performance against the Ravens was understandable because he did not have a full week to prepare as the starter.   DTR himself said that he did not even know some of the play calls coming in from Kevin Stefanski.

Are you drinking the Kool Aid??

I am not.   Why?

Well for starters

- Why is it that DTR after a full training camp, was not in command of his playbook?

- Why is it that DTR did not apparently take his role as backup QB seriously enough to prepare as if he might have to play?

If you drink the Browns Kool Aid and expect to see a new man at QB Sunday against the Steelers I suspect you're going to be seriously let down.

The Brown BLog Predicts: Quesions Answered - Week 9 vs Ravens

The Browns vs the Ravens will be the most important game the Browns have played in over two seasons because this game is going to answer a lot of questions.

Among the questions that we will have the answers to after Sunday's match:

- Are the Browns a Super Bowl contender?

- Is Kevin Stefanski capable of a flawless day of coaching, or will he continue to listen to Paul DePodesta's staff during the most critical moments of a game and make mind numbing decisions that mar games that are generally well planned on offense. 

Those are two pretty big questions.   A road game vs the very talented and well coached Ravens is a test.  Win it and pass.  Lose it and fail.

I see the Browns battling tomorrow but losing a relatively close battle.   But whether the Browns lose by 1 point or 30 a loss will be a failure that foreshadows yet another disappointing season for the Browns 

Brown BLog Predicts

Ravens    23

Browns   16

The Brown BLog are 4-4 this season predicting the outcome of Browns games.