BL Predicts: Round 1 NFL Playoffs

After closing the year out 10-6 predicting Browns games, the Brown Log continue their yearly tradition of post season predictions.

This season's round 1 presents the most difficult set of games to predict that I can ever recall, so here goes:

Arizona vs Carolina:
Even though the Panthers finished 7-8 & 1, it must be noted that Arizona is down to their 3rd string QB, Ryan Lindley, whose play thus far would indicate that he's the kind of QB the Cleveland Browns would likely employ.  In other words, he's just awful.   I always give heavy consideration to the fact that the home field advantage is huge in the NFL.  The home team wins 58% of the time in the National Football League.

Finally, Cam Newton has endured a season of injuries that he has courageously played through and he is emerging both physically but more important, as a leader.   Look for a close game but I think Cam can make a few big plays against the incredible Arizona D and help his team advance

BL Predicts:  Carolina ends Arizona's wonderful season
Carolina    17
Arizona     12

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh
The loss of Le'veon Bell is big for the Steelers but I think they have more than enough guns remaining to handle the slumping Ravens at home.

BL Predicts:   Steelers handle Ravens
Pittsburgh   26
Baltimore    17

Cincinnati vs Indianapolis
I really like this Bengals team and every year in round 1, some home team is astounded by a visitor.  The Bengals D is loaded with speed and big play talent.   Jeremy Hill is a force at running back, capable of dominating and changing a game.  

What makes Bengal's fans nervous is that Andy Dalton has never played well in big games but here's an insight that most pundits haven't connected the dots on.  In the view of the Brown Log, it's not that Dalton can't play well in big games, his problem is that he's not a good QB in bad weather.  Paradoxically, the home field is a disadvantage for Dalton in the Bengals open air field, so it's a blessing in disguise to play in the Colts dome stadium.

Look for Hill to run for over 100 yards, Dalton to avoid big mistakes and Luck to make a few critical mistakes.

BL Predicts:  Bengals in an upset
Cincinnati     30
Colts             24


Detroit vs Dallas
Finally the game I've agonized most over.   I really want to pick Detroit here because I love the big play talent of Calvin Johnson but in the end, this seems to be a year of destiny for Tony Romo.   Look for the Dallas Cowboys dominant offensive line to continue to make big holes for DeMarcus Murray and Tony Romo to spring the occasional big play.

BL Predicts:  Cowboys steamroll the Lions
Dallas            35
Detroit           24

BL Predicts: Week 16 - Season finale vs Ravens

Normally, we predict the Browns game the day before to have as much information as possible but this week the outcome is already clear days before game time.

Brian Hoyer's shoulder is hurt, Connor Shaw may start so QB is bound to be an issue.   The Ravens are fighting for their playoff life and the game is in Baltimore.

BL Predicts:

Ravens      27
Browns     13

The BL are 9-6 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 15 - Browns vs. Panthers

While the BL correctly foresaw that Johnny Football would have a rough debut I have to confess I had no idea that Johnny Manziel would show himself to be so flawed.  In a debut that was utterly terrible, Manziel's single game performance was so bad that it raises doubts about his potential as an NFL quarterback.  Normally you give a player a season to evaluate him but in Manziel's case he simply looked like he doesn't belong in the NFL.  His historically embarrassing debut is something that could only happen in Cleveland.

After the game Browns legend Bernie Kosar dumped on the front office and a culture of losing.  Bernie talks to people so his viewpoint has foundation in fact.   My guess here is that Bernie went off because he knows that Mike Pettine did not want to start Manziel vs the Bengals.  If Jimmy Haslam is interfering in the football operation of the Browns, it's a really really bad sign.

Onto Carolina.  Can the Browns game plan a better scheme for Manziel?   The answer is yes, anything would be better than the egg they laid against the Bengals.    Expect Cleveland to move Manziel around a bit and look for Johnny to make better reads but don't expect the Browns to win.   Turnovers and stalled drives will still likely be the order of the day vs the Panthers, but I would expect Johnny Football to move the team at least a few times on Sunday

BL Predicts:

Carolina      30
Browns       13


The BL are 8-6 year to date predicting Browns games.

Farewell Mike Pettine ??

Jimmy Haslam fired Chud because he did not like how Chud refused to cut players who didn't measure up.  Mike Pettine has learned that lesson well, making brutal examples this year of Ben Tate, Billy Cundiff, Kiero Small and others when they failed to do as the team pleased.

After yesterday's debacle vs Cincinnati, in which heaven forbid, Marvin Lewis out coached Mike Pettine, will Pettine's head be on the block?   Haslam has fired his head coach for 2 years running and let's not forget, Pettine was Joe Banner's man.

BL Predicts: Week 14 Browns vs Bengals - The debut of Johnny Football

When predicting, the Brown Log like to stick to the facts and here are the facts this week vs the Bengals:

- The home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL, just about the only factor in the Browns favor this week.

- The Browns have been torn apart by injury, though at linebacker and free safety players have stepped up and done an admirable job.  However at center and defensive line, the Browns have been severely weakened.

- A rookie QB is starting for the Browns this week.  Even if that rookie QB is the most famous rookie QB in NFL history, he's still a rookie QB.  Rookies make rookie mistakes, even the ones who end up being great.  Odds are strong that Johnny Manziel will make a critical mistake or two on Sunday.  Manziel likely will also surprise the Bengals with a few big plays both in the air and on the ground but this is not college where a mistake or two can be overcome by a few big plays, it's mistakes that decide games in the NFL.

- Football is an emotional game and the Bengals have an emotional edge on multiple fronts.

• Earlier this year the Bengals were soundly defeated by the Browns.
• The Bengals have more at stake as they hold the division lead
• The Browns have key players like Joe Thomas who favor the veteran QB Hoyer
• Marvin Lewis may be into Manziel's head with the midget comment

- Finally, another factor in any outdoor game, especially in Ohio is the weather.  On the Thursday evening in Cincinnati that the Bungles lost to the Browns there was a 50 mile per hour wind blowing and the Bengals stupidly stuck to their game plan, throwing passes all over the field that were visibly affected by the wind while the Browns clearly adapted to the elements and were able to move the ball.   Ironically the weather in Cleveland is supposed to be decent and the Bengals are out for revenge, I think they'll have the edge Sunday vs the Browns.


BL Predicts:

Bengals      24
Browns      20

The BL are 7-6 season to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 13 vs Colts

Injuries can impact a team more significantly in the NFL than any other professional sport.   In 2014, the Browns have been impacted by injuries more than any team in the NFL.   A litany of critical players are gone:  Alex Mack, Jordan Cameron, Karlos Dansby, Tashaun Gibson, Phil Taylor are all pro bowl or near pro bowl quality players that have missed a major part of the season.

At the end of every season, Jimmy Haslam decides whether or not to fire his head coach.   The Brown Log hope that Haslam breaks his trend and allows Pettine to return for a second season, but one factor not in Pettine's favor that Haslam will have to consider is whether or not Pettine has caused the rash of injuries by not implementing a strong conditioning program.

I'm a fatalist this week against the Colts.   Add a QB controversy with Hoyer's play degrading since the Houston game, to the mountain of injuries we have and I see Andrew Luck and his crew handing the Browns a solid loss at home.

BL Predicts:


Colts      24
Browns  14

The BL are 6-6 season to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 12 vs Bills

Until last weekend, I thought that the fact that the Browns have managed to continue to win while being decimated by injuries was a tribute to team unity and game planning.   The win against the Falcons also convinced me that even with the injuries, people like myself have ignored the fact that the Browns also have talent that still differentiates them.   Players like Joel Bitonio are playing at a Pro Bowl level and are a significant upgrade to the team vis a vis the 2013 season.   Add in Josh Gordon who is the most talented receiver in the game and the Browns can compete with anyone.  Mike Pettine knows the value of running the clock down via a ground attack and so this team is going to compete every week.

This week we face a Bills defense that is rated as one of the best in the NFL both against the run and pass.   The Bills O, led by Kyle Orton, does not turn the ball over.

All of the above leads to what surely will be a close battle Sunday in Buffalo.

Injuries once again could prove to be the difference.  Losing Gibson is another massive loss but what I've noticed against Atlanta however is one injury nobody is aware of.   Against the Texans, late in the game, Brian Hoyer took a heavy hit and had to fight to recover his senses.   He's not been the same since and my best guess is he's very banged up.   The 3 intercepts against the Falcons stand as evidence.   Hoyer hasn't performed that badly in his career and the Falcons are not even that good a team.   I saw a tentative Hoyer, who appeared to be playing in pain.

Look for a close game, I hope I'm wrong but I see the Bills holding on for a win against the Browns

BL Predicts

Buffalo    21
Browns    13

The BL are 5-6 year to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 11 vs Falcons

Just about everything is working against the Browns in their matchup vs Atlanta this week:

- The Browns are on the road
- The Falcons are on a roll
- The Falcons play a 4-3 defense which is the best formation to stop the zone blocking running scheme that the Browns run
- Matt Ryan and his offense play well at home.
- The Browns have been decimated by injuries and go into this weeks game losing their QB on defense in Dansby along with key pass rusher Jabaal Sheard.   Dansby is much better than Craig Robertson in pass coverage and look for the Falcons to exploit Robertson.

Josh Gordon's return could be a major boost to the Browns but both Gordon and the offense may need time to adjust to each other and Gordon likely needs reps to get back to full game speed.  I'd be pleasantly surprised if Gordon is a game changer out of the box.

The Falcon's defense is not good and neither is the Browns but the trends on the two units appear headed in opposite directions.   The Falcons D has given up 17 points in each of the last two weeks whereas the Browns have lost key players to injuries and played poorly vs Houston.

BL Predicts:

Falcons     30
Browns     17


The BL are 5-5 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.  

BL Predicts: Week 10 vs Texans

Concern is the operative word for today's match up vs the Texans.   While part of the caution is due to still not being able to believe the Browns are for real after so many years of losing, part of the nervousness about today's game is simply sound analysis of the facts:

- The Browns have been severely damaged by injuries.   Now Phil Taylor is gone for the season.  He joins Alex Mack, Jordan Cameron, Johnson Bademosi, John Hughes, Armonty Bryant and the suspended Josh Gordon.  It's a tribute to the coaching of the Browns that they continue to win.  I've also noticed center Nick McDonald limping severely late against Cincinnati.

- The Texans have lost 5 games this year but each time they've lost it's been a battle.  Today against the Browns the Texans have top draft pick Jadeveon Clowney coming back.   

- Several of the Browns opponents have successfully schemed their defense to stop the Browns running game but no opponent has really found a way to limit Brian Hoyer on play action naked role outs.   However the Texans have JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney and let's imagine "what if" the Texans guess correctly a few times that Hoyer will pass off play action.  Hoyer would get crushed.

There are also some points of major concern for Houston:

- They're on the road vs Cleveland and we all know the home team wins 58% in the NFL.

- The Texans will miss Arian Foster.

- Most importantly, the Texans will start a QB who will play for the first time in an NFL game.   Ryan Mallett is not a rookie however.  He is a third year vet who's had plenty of time to get ready for his NFL debut and he's had a lot of time while with the Pats to study Mike Pettine's defense. 

Mallett starting his first game is a concern for Houston but it's also a major concern for Cleveland.  We don't have game film on this guy.  Cleveland knows how important this is.  For example, early in his miserable career, Brandon Weeden had a few decent games but once there was plenty of film for teams to study, it became clear that Weeden could be easily confused and he buckled under pressure.   Once NFL teams figured this out, Weeden never won another NFL game.  Look for Cleveland to make every effort to put Mallet under pressure but he may well be prepared for this.  

So how will the Browns play today vs Houston?:

This is going to be a very close game.  Coach Pettine's decision to keep running the ball eats valuable time off the clock which assures close games and Brian Hoyer has made wise decisions when passing.

Ryan Mallett starts in the NFL for the first time and the Browns will likely blitz him a lot.  Houston knows this and may well be ready with quick passes and deception. 

There's so much riding on this game for Cleveland.  If they arrive to 7-3 their odds of making the playoffs go through the roof.  Too good to be true?   We are jaded, aren't we fellow Browns fans.

I think the Browns are too banged up and Ryan Mallett will be able to establish a rhythm that goes against what the Browns are planning for.  I am also very worried that Brian Hoyer will be injured as the Texans plan to attack him on likely play actions.   We may very well see Johnny Football today due to Hoyer getting banged up and if we do, he won't play as well as Hoyer.     

BL Predicts:

Texans    24

Browns   20

The BL are 4-5 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.  

BL Predicts: Week 9 vs the Bungles - Beating the odds?

Can the Browns beat the odds and walk away with a W in Cincy tomorrow evening even though there are are numerous factors stacked against them?

* Cincinnati has not lost a regular season home game since the 2012 season and the Bengals are returning to full strength with AJ Green no longer injured, and while Giovani Bernard is hurt, the Bengals have Jeremy Hill emerging as a potential game changing talent in their backfield. 

* The Browns have been poor on the road this season at 1-2 including an embarrassing loss to the Jaguars.

* The Browns have been badly decimated by injuries and the suspension of key players.  Alex Mack, Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron & Phil Taylor.   There is a risk that Andrew Hawkins won't play Thursday evening and a key special teams player, Johnson Bademosi is out too.

In the aggregate these factors say the odds are the Browns will lose but on the plus side the Browns are playing as a team with a QB that is a courageous leader who inspires his teammates.  Emotion is a big part of a football game and the Browns might have an emotional edge Thursday evening.   Will that be enough?

What about coaching and game plans?

The Bengals will play it very conventional Thursday night, doing the things on offense and defense that they always do.   The Browns know what to expect.   I see the Browns, on the other hand, changing tendencies they've shown year to date, debuting some new plays and perhaps even some trickery.

The Browns will give the Bengals all they can handle for 2-3 quarters but in the end the Bungles will simply wear out the Browns, who have suffered too many injuries.  The Browns will give us something to cheer for tomorrow but in the end I think the Bengals will win.

BL Predicts

Browns        24

Bengals        31

The BL are 4-4 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games .

BL Predicts: Week 8 - Browns vs Bucs

Last week, Donte Whitner's game changing tackle forced a turnover and stopped an Oakland drive.   Entire season's can hinge on plays like that and we have to tip our hat to Whitner because he truly earned his pay and then some last week.   Oakland, in spite of their winless record, is a team with excellent talent, they just haven't put it together yet.

This week however, the Browns play a team that has holes everywhere.   Tampa run a 4-3 defense which is ideally suited to stopping zone blocking run offenses but the Bucs also don't have the same talent level as Oakland and Jacksonville.   I see the Browns being able to run the ball against Tampa.

For Cleveland more than any team in the NFL, our run game opens up the pass game.

The Brown Log see the last easy win of the season for the home team.

BL Predicts

Browns        27

Tampa Bay  13

The BL, for the first time in this blogs history, are below .500 for the season, with a 3-4 record predicting the winner of Browns games.   It simply gets a bit harder to foresee the winner when the Browns don't lose 80% of their games.   

BL Predicts: Week 7 - This "is" still the Cleveland Browns people

In face of all rational logic, I just have a bad feeling this week folks.

This game will be the true test of Mike Pettine in his farewell season as Browns head coach.  Jimmy Haslam has proven to Cleveland fans that he demands short term perfection even if success in the NFL requires long term commitment.  Pettine knows he is on the spot right now, fighting for his job but I don't see Cleveland being healthy enough, talented enough and experienced enough to make this the season that the Browns pull off a worst to first type of transformation.

Derek Carr is a rookie QB but he has shown signs that he is ready to emerge.  Furthermore against the Brown's break but don't bend defense, Carr has the type of arm that can break big plays.  The Browns D is banged up, Carr just might be ready for a big game in what looks to be unseasonably good weather Sunday in Cleveland.

Last week the Jaguars gave the NFL a blueprint on how to control the Browns zone blocking scheme.   The Raiders run a 4-3 which is the perfect formation to counter zone blocking.   Defensive linemen need to penetrate, stay in their lanes and let linebackers do their job.

Once you defang the Browns run game, Brian Hoyer transforms into just another average QB.  The Raiders have struggled against big armed QB's this season but against Tom Brady, who Brian Hoyer is often compared to, the Raiders had a very respectable showing, holding Brady and the Pats to 16 points.   With Hoyer forced into obvious passing situations, the Raiders can pin their ears back and pressure him into incompletions and costly mistakes.

On offense, Derek Carr has shown, in the words of Mike Pettine, that he can make all the passes.   The Browns and their 12 defensive backs will have their hands full, especially if the Raiders are able to run the ball early.  I'm going with a season deflating upset.

BL Predicts:

Raiders     28
Browns     17

The BL are 3-3 year to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 6 vs the lowly Jags

A lot of Browns fans are counting on an easy win Sunday in Jacksonville.  I agree on one count only.   The Browns are going to win, but it won't be easy.

After Alex Mack left the Steelers game last Sunday with his season ending injury, I focused my binoculars on John Greco and Paul McQuistan.   I was impressed by both, the Browns didn't lose a beat as both Greco and McQuistan were particularly dominant while run blocking.  The zone blocking scheme of Kyle Shanahan stood out.  The Browns were successful to move the entire Steelers defense en masse, at times it seemed to me that the Steelers D played into the Browns hands by trying to move with their blockers towards the Browns running back.   Penetrate gaps and hold your lane is what I was thinking Steelers defenders should do.   Reading up this week on tactics to stop a zone blocking scheme verified my thoughts.  Zone blocking is best countered with a 4-3 lineup whose lineman penetrate and stay in lanes.  Let the outside linebackers do their job to contain and the middle linebacker must make a lot of tackles.

If I am Jacksonville, I'm going to focus on stopping the Browns zone running by playing a lot of 4-3 and daring Hoyer to pass.  I think this strategy will in fact work and the Jags will hold the Browns offense a season low in points.

That brings us to the other major factor this week.   A rookie QB with penchant for pick 6's.   There's a reason coaches hate rookies and Blake Bortles is showing us that reason.   He has given up 3 pick 6's this season.   At times he has looked great, many others he's looked like, well, Brandon Weeden.   in the Hoyer vs Bortles matchup, I'm guessing Hoyer will make fewer mistakes and that will be the difference this week.   The only thing that could really muddy my prediction up is if, instead of passing, when in doubt, Bortles runs the ball.   Then we could have a major problem, but I think the Browns will bottle him up no matter what he does.

In what will be a close one, I see our Browns sneaking out of Florida with a W.

BL Predicts

Browns    19
Jags          17


The BL are 3-2 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.