BL Predicts: Game 13 vs the cheating New England Patriots

The Brown Log are now 9-3 year to date in predicting the outcome of Browns games.   If you stack us up against pundits who are actually paid for a living to cover the Browns you'll find that we are blowing the "experts" away.

Click on this link to see the record of the Plain Dealers staff.   Note that the best record amongst the "pros" is a paltry 7-5.

Week and week out, the so called experts let emotion overrule logic when it comes to our beloved Browns.  Football is an emotional game but more often than not, skills beat out emotion on the field of play.  This week however look for emotion to finally rise up and favor our Browns.  That and another important factor external to the field of play which is the heads up that Houston's Antonio Smith gave the NFL last weekend about the Patriots renewed cheating.

Everybody this week is predicting the Pats to win but there is an interesting bit of information that has leaked into the public's eye.    On December 1st at halftime the disgustingly bad Houston Texans were handling the Pats, leading by a score of 17-7.   In the second half, the Pats miraculously recovered and barely eked out a win, 34-31.   After the game the Texans Antonio Smith accused the Pats of cheating.
If you look at the Patriots team, their talent levels are not in line with their 9-3 record and in the past it is a known fact that the Patriots have employed sophisticated cheating schemes.   If you read what Antonio Smith had to say in the link, it is probable that history is repeating itself and the Patroits have morphed their cheating into new areas such as using electronic surveillance to listen in on opposing coaches.   The technology to do so exists, but perhaps the scumbag Bill Belichick has invested in duplicating what the NSA does to all of us.

I admire that our head coach Chud looks for every edge, week in and week out.   This week, I truly expect Chud to do everything in his power to avoid that the Patriots steal info from the Browns.  Without this edge, expect the Pats to be surprised by the Browns more than once.

Moving onto the players that will have to execute come game time, very thankfully Jason Campbell is starting for the Browns this week, and he has looked good in practice.   Campbell will likely go vertical a bit more than he has this year to break tendency and surprise the Pats.  With Josh Gordon emerging as the premier wideout in the NFL, and the Pats trying to handle Gordon by jamming him at the line of scrimmage but not double teaming him, I expect the Browns to break several big gains.  It is worth noting that the Pats have the worst run defense in the NFL and even the Browns with their pathetic rushing attack should be able to help Campbell by gaining a few yards on the ground.

On defense, our Browns will have their hands full with Tom Brady but look for Brady to struggle a bit if the Patriots are unable to decode information that they steal from the Browns.  The Browns defense will also be significantly better this week.   Speaking of experts who miss important factors, last week, none of the experts, either before or after the Browns game against Jacksonville, understood the negative impact that starting Darius Eubanks had on the Browns chances of winning that game.  Football is a game of 11 players vs 11 players, and if even one of those 11 players is not of NFL quality, it's a MAJOR disadvantage.   I actually isolated on Eubanks every play he was on the field vs the Jags and he consistently made bad reads that put him out of position to make plays against the run.   The handful of times Eubanks put himself in a position to make a play against the run, tiny Eubanks was manhandled by blockers in every case except one where he did make a tackle after a 3 yard gain.  Against the pass he wasn't much better.   When Eubanks was on the field vs Jacksonville, the Jags were able to run and pass the ball with little trouble because they were playing 11 players vs what effectively was only 10 NFL players for the Browns.   This week it looks like Craig Robertson is going to play instead of Eubanks and that is a huge plus for the Browns.

Finally and importantly, football is an emotional game and after Joe Haden's outburst last week and the embarrassing loss to Jacksonville, I expect the Browns to be highly motivated vs New England.


BL Predicts the Browns will pull off an upset

Browns    24
Patriots     16

The BL are 9-3 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts - Game 12 vs Jacksonville

This week's game is the hardest to predict this season because on paper it seems the Browns should win this home game but a few key factors give me pause.

Some factors to consider this week:

* Browns QB Brandon Weeden is 0-4 as a starter.   His counterpart, Chad Henne, is a slightly below average NFL passer.   Being a bit less than mediocre gives Henne a major advantage compared to the disastrous Brandon Weeden.   Sitting on the bench may indeed have given Weeden a few ideas on what he might do different.  For example, look for Weeden to heavily favor Josh Gordon today.   If Weeden simply flings it in Gordon's direction early and often it would be a major step in the right direction. However, expect Jacksonville to be ready.   If the Jaguars scheme to keep the ball away from Gordon it may foil Weeden's one chance at success by creating a turnover or two.   Chad Henne on the other hand will most certainly play more consistently than Weeden.

* The Browns will be playing Darius Eubacks at one of the ILB positions.   In the preseason, Joe Banner cut a number of veteran players in favor of lesser paid rookie free agents.   Those players released included promising 2nd year linebacker James Michael Johnson, who now makes a living for the 9-2 Kansas City Chiefs.   Another was a solid linebacker, LJ Fort.   The Browns saved cash by cutting more experienced players but they gambled that depth wouldn't be needed at LB at any point during the season.  The NFL season is long and here we are in the stretch run and the lack depth at linebacker is suddenly a potential game deciding issue.   Count on the fact that Jacksonville will isolate receivers against Eubanks and test him.  Eubanks was playing safety at Georgia Southern 12 months ago.  A few key plays should decide Sunday's game and I would be surprised if Eubanks is not on the wrong end of more than one big play.

* The home field should not be ignored but I'm guessing that many frustrated Browns fans are going to sit this game out, thus damping down the home field advantage for Cleveland.

* Weather will be cold and nasty.   Bad weather often affects QB's more than anybody and the fact is that Chad Henne has more experience playing in the cold than our own Brandon Weeden.

* Finally I'm sure that Chud would very much like to impress on his bosses that he can lead the Browns to a win at home against a team that the Browns "should" beat.   Look for Chud to try a few trick plays to surprise the Jags.   Chud's ability to get big plays this season by expert use of the element of surprise helped the Browns beat the Vikings and Bills.  I've got a feeling that Jacksonville will be on the lookout and for the first time this season, the tactic will not work.

Tough call but I see the Browns losing a difficult battle against Jacksonville:

BL Predicts:

Jacksonville    17
Browns           10

The BL are 8-3 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 11 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL fans have been predicting the decline of the Steelers since the beginning of the 2013 season and in fact the Steelers started off 2013 with 4 consecutive losses.  However forecasts of doom for the Steelers may have been premature, because since that 0-4 start, the Steelers are actually playing good football and have won 4 of 6 games.   Big Ben once again is playing at Pro Bowl levels and Antonio Brown is his favorite target.   The Steelers offense has been formidable in this 6 game stretch, averaging nearly 23 points per game.

Our Browns on the other hand have a world class defense together with an offense that needs help at nearly every position.   Most disturbing is the Browns utter inability to run the football.  A few weeks ago for instance, the Browns cut Bobby Rainey, who could barely gain 3 yards per carry in Cleveland and for the last few weeks in Tampa Bay, he's looked like a Pro Bowler, reeling off 2 strong games, including a 30 carries for 163 yard performance last week.   The Browns offensive line, simply cannot open holes in the running game, and even if you could reincarnate Jim Thorpe, you'd have a problem getting 4 yards per carry with this line.  

Jason Campbell is a credible NFL backup, but with 3 full games of film, NFL teams are quickly getting reacquainted with his strengths and weaknesses.   Keep Campbell in the pocket and your odds of beating him go up.

I believe in the advantage of playing on the home turf but that has to be coupled with all of the other factors.   Weather will likely be cold and difficult Sunday in Cleveland, adding import to the running game.   The running game is something decisively in the Steelers favor.

Look for a low scoring affair in which the Browns D holds Big Ben and crew to 20 points but the Browns offense will perform well below their own low potential.  A few key plays by Big Ben should turn the tide for the Steelers.  This game should mark the official end of all hope for Browns fans in 2013 so now we can focus our attention on who it is Mike Lombardi will draft in 2014 to finally save our Browns and bring us to the promised land. 

BL Predicts

Steelers 20

Browns 10

The BL are 7-3 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games. 

BL Predicts: Game 10 vs Bengals

Does it seem too good to be true that if the Browns were to win this week, they would find themselves in the drivers seat to gain a playoff spot?  Yes it does seem too good to be true and therefore I will be shocked if the Browns can pull out a win against the Bengals this week.

First let's remember that the home team wins on average 58% of the time in the NFL.   The Bengals are 4-0 at home this year while our Browns are 1-3 on the road.   Weather also promises to be a factor, limiting both teams ability to complete longer passes downfield and raising the importance of the running game.

Beyond that however, I see the Browns losing on Sunday though for one major reason.   Jason Campbell now has two full games under his belt which gives ample game film to the Bengals so they can scheme defensively to counter those aspects of the passing game in which Campbell has been outstanding in his two starts.   In the win against the Ravens, Campbell was consistently able to feel and move around in the pocket buying time that he used to complete numerous short touch passes to his receivers at critical moments against the Ravens.   Those passes led to the Browns win.   A deeper look at the metrics verify this.    75% of Campbell's passes this season have been thrown less than 10 yards in the air, and he's done just about ALL of his damage with those passes.

Look for the Bengals to work very hard to keep Campbell in the pocket and for the Bengals to focus their pass defenders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.   The Bengals will give Campbell some different looks, and try to slow him down.    If the Bengals can slow Campbell down early and force the Browns to try to run the ball, suddenly our resurgent Brownies will look very beatable once again.

A Jason Campbell focused defensive game plan combined with the home crowd advantage should be more than enough to drive yet another dagger into Browns fans hearts.   

BL Predicts

Bengals    24

Browns    16

The Brown Log are 6-3 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games. 

BL Predicts: Week 9 vs Ravens

Football is an emotional game, and division rivalries often come down less to talent and more to which team has an emotional edge.

Look for the Browns to drop another game this week.    The primary driver for a Browns loss really is that the Ravens are due for a big game, if they are to salvage playoff hopes this season. Baltimore are the reigning Super Bowl champs, and I see them being very motivated to drive home a win in Cleveland.  Meanwhile our Browns are due for a letdown. Hope is slipping away and we are already on our third QB of the season.  

If emotional analysis isn't enough for you, remember that the Browns have lost Travis Benjamin, who was one the the teams most important role players. Several key long gains and scores took place on special teams and on offense when Benjamin was on the field. The Brownies lost a major threat that opponents defenses had to account for. It's a seemingly small factor but football can be a game of inches.

BL Predicts

Ravens       23
Browns      13

The Brown Log are 6-2 year to date in predicting who will win Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 8 vs Kansas City

The Kansas City Chiefs are a good example of why the Marty Schottenheimer formula wins games.   Andy Reid has the Chiefs using a very Marty like ball control running and short passing game, thus giving opponents offenses less time to score points.   KC's offense averages over 32 minutes possession per game.  It's a pretty basic idea but if the other team doesn't possess the ball, it's a lot harder to score.

The other very Marty-like characteristic of this KC squad is that they do not make mistakes.  They turn the ball over rarely as witnessed by their +11 turnover ratio that leads the entire NFL. 

KC are on a roll right now.  Jamaal Charles is grinding out yards and Alex Smith keeps the chains moving with his short passes. 

Our Browns are a Jekyll and Hyde team.  With Brandon Weeden at the controls we are probably the worst team in the NFL but with Brian Hoyer our Browns looked like contenders.   With Jason Campbell now leading the way, we don't really know which kind of team our Browns will be.

Campbell looked very mediocre in the pre season but he's an experienced veteran who knows that preventing mistakes will be a key if the Browns have any chance to beating the Chiefs.  Furthermore Campbell adds a dimension to the Browns offense.   He can scramble for yardage.   I see Campbell scrambling early in the game for a big gain or two.  

The Browns will make a respectable showing, but when deciding if the Browns can upset the Chiefs or not, I keep coming back to the fact that when Marty coached our Browns they almost always won the games they were supposed to.   I think the Browns will play a very tight game on Sunday but with Andy Reid playing Marty ball in KC, it's hard to imagine his team losing this week.

BL Predicts:

Kansas City Chiefs     20

Cleveland Browns      17

The BL are 5-2 this year in predicting the winner of Browns games. 

Brandon Weeden leaving it all out on the field

Brandon Weeden gave Chud little choice but to bench him when he attempted The Flip II vs Green Bay.  With Weeden on the bench, all we're left with are these precious memories of Brandon Weeden leaving it all out there on the field of play.

BL Predicts: Week 7 vs Green Bay

Fans have been talking all week about how Chud should scheme to win with Weeden at the controls.   There's really only one way to do so, run the ball 60% of the time and be successful at it.   Put Weeden into a minimum number of situations where he can self inflict damage and put him into situations where the Pack are looking run so that Weeden has a chance to use that cannon of his against a defense that won't confuse him.

Unfortunately, the Browns don't have a running game to speak of and unless undrafted free agent Fozzy Whittaker comes out of nowhere to play a strong game, the Browns will find themselves relying on Weeden again on Sunday against the Pack.

The book on Weeden is out in the NFL.   Steelers pro bowl safety Ryan Clark had this to say about Weeden:

"For me, I feel like he's easier to defend,'' said Clark. "I think we'll do a good job against him, being able to confuse him, make him hold the ball and get some pressure, so Cleveland is definitely an easier team to beat with Brandon Weeden at quarterback.''

In obvious passing situations, Green Bay will succeed in confusing Weeden.   They'll drop into zone coverages with extra attention paid to Cameron and Gordon.   Weeden has difficulty coming off his primary target.    In the film I've reviewed, over and over again Weeden is unable to pull the trigger.   He sees a game that's moving too fast for him.   Typically opponents have dropped into zones and in slow motion it's easy to see Browns receivers with a step or two on defenders.  But the NFL game is not played in slow motion.   It's played at rocket speed and a QB has to be able to process plays in split seconds.  The best NFL QBs are able to do that but not Brandon Weeden.

BL Predicts:  Green Bay will cover the spread and beat the Browns rather handily.

Green Bay     27
Browns          14

The BL are 4-2 year to date in predicting who will win Browns games.

Insights into Brandon Weeden's vision

Take a close look at this sequence late in the game against the Bills

Photo 1:  Mitchell Schwartz has done a miserable job of pass blocking against Bills stud DE Mario Williams and Weeden is locked onto Greg Little so he has yet to note he's under pressure.











Photo 2:   Weeden now realizes that Williams is pressuring him and breaks free of Williams











Photo 3:   Mario Williams is now flat on the ground, Weeden is free of Williams.  The other 3 Buffalo Bills that are rushing Weeden are under control.   Weeden on this play immediately after breaking free of Williams chucks the ball out of bounds about 10 yards ahead of McGahee who can already been seen in the photo starting to break free of the linebacker #91 Spencer Johnson who was single covering him..  Weeden could have easily taken a few steps forward, bought himself 2-3 more seconds and given McGahee time to break completely free.

In Weeden's defense there were 2:25 minutes left in the game and the Browns were up by 3 points however the sequence clearly shows that Weeden had no count in his head of how many Bills had rushed him, which for an NFL QB is fundamental math he should do every play.   Weeden also had no clue about how much space he had once Williams had failed to sack him.   A 3 point lead with 2 minutes to go in the NFL is hardly a sure thing.   I believe most NFL QBs would have taken advantage of the extra 3 seconds they had on this play and tried to get the ball to McGahee.

Reasonable fans can argue about the result of this play but what appears to be certain is that Weeden panicked when in fact there were no Buffalo players in a position to sack him.

BL Predicts: Week 6 vs Lions

It's hard to understand the optimism that Browns fans feel about the 2013 season.  Personally, any optimism died when the Browns confirmed that Brian Hoyer is out for the season.   Hoyer had shown us all that the 2013 Browns had the talent to be a contender.  

Folks, Brian Hoyer is gone.   In his place returns Brandon Weeden and with the return of Weeden we return to slow reads, bad decisions, inaccurate passes, turnovers, three plays and out and losses.   Oh, and we'll also get to witness a couple of beautiful 70 yard touchdown flings interspersed among countless poorly executed passes during the rest of these games.

If nothing else, what Weeden's play will prove in 2013 is how critical the QB position is to an NFL team's results.  

BL Predicts:

Lions     23
Browns 13

The BL are 3-2 year to date.



 

BL Predicts: Week 5 vs Bills

Earlier this season my philosophy on picking Browns games this year was that I could achieve the best possible record of success by simply predicting the Browns would lose every week.   With Brandon Weeden at the controls, my record was in fact spotless.   However under the leadership of Brian Hoyer our Browns are indeed a completely different squad.

Hoyer's leadership, his ability to read defenses has led him to make decisive decisions and the passes he's throw have been surprisingly accurate with the right touch just about every time.   By leading long clock eating drives, it's also helped Ray Horton's defense emerge as a dominant force.  This is not any longer a bad team.   Even the trade of Trent Richardson seems to have hurt the Browns far less than anticipated.

Today we face a Bills team with a great defense however we also face a rookier QB in EJ Manuel.  Look for the Brownies to take advantage of Manuel's lack of experience on one or two key plays and look for Hoyer to keep leading his teammates to victory.

BL Predicts

Browns   20
Bills        10

The BL are 2-2 year to date

BL Predicts: Week 4 vs Cincinnati Bengals

The Browns have resolved a major issue by replacing Brandon Weeden with Brian Hoyer.   Weeden flat out lacks the vision, leadership and skill to be an NFL quarterback.  Watching Brian Hoyer play Sunday against Minnesota made it clear that Weeden is the worst QB to take the field for the Browns this century.

That stated, let's not get carried away.   Hoyer's tangible skills are quite average for an NFL QB.   He's not elusive, nor does he have anywhere near Weeden's rifle arm.  What Hoyer does possess are leadership skills that are top notch.  Unlike Weeden, Hoyer has the capacity to see the 11 defenders on the field of play and make the correct reads quickly.  Finally, Hoyer can place a football accurately if passing within his range.  

With the trade of Trent Richardson the Browns have no running game.   That will be a real issue against the Bengals.

On defense, the Browns front 7 take a backseat to nobody in the NFL.  That means our Browns can shut down the running game and pressure a QB.   That takes pressure off a mediocre defensive backfield.  The Bengals however have talent everywhere on offensive and an above average QB who takes what the defense gives him and doesn't hurt his team with slow or poor decision making.   Andy Dalton will absorb some blows from the Browns defense but he'll eventually find holes as the game progresses and put up points.

Last week we faced a Minnesota team that had several defensive backs injured and were not able to make adjustments to take out Josh Gordon.  The Bengals have depth and talent on defense and furthermore have a week of film of both Gordon and Hoyer.

It'll be back to reality this week against the Bengals who have too much talent for our Brownies.   I see Hoyer and his teammates battling and putting up a good fight but the Bengals will eventually wear them down.

BL Predicts:

Browns 21
Bengals 31

The BL are 2-1 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 3 vs Minnesota Vikings

I have to confess that up until Wednesday evening, I was seriously pondering the possibility of predicting a Browns victory Sunday in Minnesota.   Then the NFL and Browns fans around the world were rocked by the stunning trade of Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts.

Football is an emotional game.   More than any other sport an emotional edge can help a team sustain a winning effort on any given Sunday.   I believed that the entrance of Brian Hoyer this week as the Browns QB might give our Browns a boost.  Hoyer is a rather mediocre QB, which in my view places him well ahead of the disastrous Brandon Weeden.  However what I really like about Hoyer is the strong leadership he displays.   Hoyer knows how to create intensity with his teammates, something that Brandon Weeden has no idea how to generate.    How does Hoyer do it?   By decisiveness about how each play needs to be executed, enthusiasm and directness in the huddle and sacrifice and courage on the field of play.   Weeden is often confused instead of decisive, monotone as opposed to enthusiastic, and visibly afraid.

With a boost from Hoyer on top of a Ray Horton led defense that is playing very well, I believed the Browns could win in Minnesota.   However the Richardson trade has thrown a shadow of doubt over everything.   By far the worst element in this fiasco was the fact that the Browns organization, led by President Joe Banner, did not have the courage, discipline and class to inform Richardson he was traded.   Instead, Trent found out by listening to the radio.   I have run a large organization and always made it a matter of pride to deal directly and forthrightly with difficult matters.   This builds trust and motivation.

No matter how it is spun, when leadership in an organization avoids delivering difficult messages to it's employees, those employees lose motivation and commitment because they don't trust the people who lead them.

Our Browns players are professionals and many of our leading players have great character, but emotion is a fuel that can add passion or take it away.  I am convinced that because our Browns are led by players like D'Qwell Jackson and now Brian Hoyer, they will start out Sunday with motivation however faced with a hostile crowd and coming off a draining week noted by a serious erosion of trust by Joe Banner, that motivation will dissolve as the game progresses.

I believe that the Browns will start off very well against the Vikings, but will not be able to sustain that intensity and we are going to lose a very close one Sunday in Minneapolis.

BL Predicts

Browns       13
Vikings       17


The BL are 2-0 year to date on the prognostication front.