The problem with Brandon Weeden: Field vision

Brandon Weeden has a cannon, no doubt about it.  His arm is so good that at the college level he could often simply wait until one of his NFL quality wideouts were wide open and that howitzer of his could rocket the ball into their awaiting arms.  In today's NFL a QB cannot survive on arm strength alone, even extraordinary arm strength.   It also takes vision, judgement and accuracy in traffic.  Watch Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers if you want to see an NFL quarterback who regularly threads the needle.

Statistical analysis bear this out.  Compare Weeden to Rodgers and other top QB's passing stats based on field position and it bears out that Weeden doesn't see the field well.   In particular in the red zone, defenses get tight and field vision becomes critical:

BRANDON WEEDEN PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

AARON RODGERS PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

RGIII PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

RYAN TANNEHILL'S PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

ANDREW LUCK PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

RUSSELL WILSON PASSING BY FIELD POSITION:

KIRK COUSINS' PASSING BY FIELD POSITION (just for fun):

Brandon Weeden has completed only 41.3% of his passes in the red zone while Aaron Rodgers heads that group at 63.2%.  Ryan Tannehill and Andrew Luck are both under 50% but still significantly better than Weeden.  Furthermore, Luck has 14 TD passes in the red zone and Tannehill has 8 compared to 5 touchdown tosses in the red zone for Weeden.

In their recent game vs the Redskins, Weeden showed his lack of vision on several key plays, one of which the BL will dissect:  the interception thrown to Redskins LB London Fletcher.

Step 1 - Weeden in the photo below is visibly locked in on Greg Little (bottom left) and decides he will throw to Little.  Redskin's linebacker London Fletcher (#59 near the 30 yard line) is watching Weeden's eyes.  Weeden clearly does not have Fletcher in his field of vision in spite of Fletcher being in the area the ball will go to.

Step 2:  Weeden, still blind to the position of Fletcher, pulls the trigger and starts into his throwing motion.  Fletcher who continues to be 100% focused on Weeden's eyes, starts to react and reposition himself into the line of fire.

Step 3:  Weeden launches the pass and Fletcher, accelerates his adjustment to the ball which is now in the air.

Step 4:  Fletcher moves to the path of the ball and makes the interception.   This critical interception is the last nail in the coffin for the Browns as the Redskins and their backup rookie QB Kirk Cousins, march downfield for another score.

There is more to playing QB than simply having a rifle arm.  A quarterback also needs vision and a sense of the game.  Weeden, who has already failed in one sport as a professional, may have all the physical tools needed, but so far he has shown himself to be incapable of seeing the field in a way that allows him to exercise consistently sound judgement and execute with precision.  In particular in these last few games Weeden has been playing it safe, not making a throw unless a player is wide open.  He'll never be a Super Bowl or even a playoff QB in the NFL until he can make accurate passes in traffic like RGIII and Aaron Rodgers do so well.

I would compare Weeden to Jim Plunkett, a QB with a tremendous arm, who took many years to adjust to the speed of the NFL.   Before he found a team in Oakland whose offense demanded a rocket arm QB, Plunkett struggled for most of his first 8 years in the league, throwing more interceptions than TD's in 7 of his first 8 years.  In his 9th year in the league and second year with the Raiders, Plunkett emerged from his backup role 5 games into the season and went 13-2 as a starter to help Oakland win the Super Bowl.

Weeden may indeed improve his play with more time on the field and experience.  But in todays win now NFL, it's unlikely Weeden will get the 8 years that Jim Plunkett did to adjust to the league.  Even if he did, Weeden would be 38 years old not 33.  Furthermore, the NFL that Jim Plunkett played in was much more focused on the running game.  Plunkett thrived in the Raider offense because Mark Van Eegan and Kenny King carried a large burden for the offense.

Should the Browns bet the future on Brandon Weeden?  There are a ton of questions still to be answered before a reasonable person can decide.  Can Weeden improve and if so, the biggest riddle is how fast can he improve?  One thing is for sure, a QB with a 40% completion percentage in the red zone is not an NFL quality QB.    60% success in the red zone is probably the measure of a Super Bowl QB.  That means that Weeden must take a quantum leap from 40% to 60% to get to the level needed by the Browns.  Statistically speaking, it's unlikely Weeden can make that kind of jump in a short period of time and history also shows that a QB without the natural gift of field vision either never makes it in the NFL or takes an extremely long period of time to learn the game.   Courage and guts may be the one factor that separates QBs who learn to see the field better because the way to learn is to learn to focus 100% downfield and in the process take one helluva beating in the pocket.

Whether to bet on Weeden is the most important call that Joe Banner has to make.  I don't know what he'll decide but I do know this, based on the play of the QBs drafted in the 2012 draft, if the draft were to be done over today, both Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson would be selected before Brandon Weeden.

BL Predicts - Week 15 vs Denver

It's that time of year where anyone who predicts Browns games must shore up their won loss record.  The Browns have likely won their last game of the season. 


Today vs Denver promises to be a very long day for the following reasons:

- Winning in Denver is tough, even for great teams, because of the altitude and it's affect on visiting players who are not used to it.

- Denver and Peyton Manning are on a roll, having won 8 games in a row.

- The Browns organization is finally starting to break at the seams under the pressure of pending job losses for Pat Shurmur and Tom Heckert.   I was really uphappy in particular to read quotes from our 29 year old rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden that effectively hung out Shurmur to dry, stating, albeit indirectly by complimenting the play calling of Washington, that the Browns would be better off if they called plays suited to Weeden's skillset (I must admit that I wondered if Weeden meant that Shurmur should develop plays that are designed to be intercepted...).  I've been giving Weeden a mulligan all year because he's a rookie but when it comes to team unity, a leader must never use the press to drive a personal agenda.   It's one thing to state these issues behind closed doors but it's quite another to do so through the newspapers.  A 29 year old should know better even if he is a rookie. 

Here's hoping Shurmur feeds Weeden a nice goodbye present by using McCoy at the first sign of trouble Sunday.

BL Predicts:

Broncos   31
Browns    17

The BL are 8-6 year to date on the prediction front.

BL Predicts: Game 14 vs Redskins

The Browns exceeded our expectations last week, showing character after giving up a big play to start the game and continuing to fight.  The beat KC handily and kept their playoff hopes alive.  The Browns confidence is growing week to week.  This week they find themselves up against the Washington Redskins, who are also on a winning run.  However the 'Skins will be without their rookie superstar RGIII, whose knee injury will keep him out of the starting lineup.  Instead we'll face Kirk Cousins.

Look for the Browns to keep Cousins off balance and make just enough plays on offense to walk away with the W.

BL Predicts:

Browns      17
Redskins    13

The BL are 8-5 year to date in predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 13 vs KC Chiefs

Football is an emotional game and in game 13 vs the Kansas City Chiefs, the Browns have to be on the guard against a team that may have an emotional advantage.   On paper the Browns should win this game considering that they have the home field advantage and are playing what can only be labelled as one of the NFL's worst teams.

However KC have two coaches and two players in key roles who were rejected by the Browns.   Head Coach Romeo Crennel and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll were fired by the Browns.  Running back Peyton Hillis has been sparring in the newspapers all week with Browns tackle Joe Thomas over Hillis' letting down his Browns teammates during the 2011 season.   Finally, Chiefs QB Brady Quinn is a former 1st round pick who the Browns gave up on in 2010.   Quinn played well last week and it would be sweet vengeance for him to come in and beat Cleveland.

As a team, the Chiefs are dealing with an unprecedented situation.   The tragic murder suicide involving  Jovan Belcher, who was a popular player in the Chiefs.   The emotional scars from the horrible story are still fresh and the tragedy can either unite the Chiefs or drain them of energy.   The power of a united football team is undeniable and if the Chiefs are able to harness such power out of tragedy it can help them overcome many factors, including a lack of talent.

While the Chiefs are in the middle of factors that may unite them, the Browns were in the middle of rumors this week that might confuse or demotivate them.   Words is that Tom Heckert is out as Brown's GM and that he'll be placed by NFL Network announcer Mike Lombardi.    The fact that Joe Banner leaked this information shows a lack of judgement because he has created a major distraction, in particular with many players who Heckert picked to build the Browns.  In particular, Brandon Weeden and Josh Gibson were panned by Lombardi as being bad picks.

Lastly, weather promises to be a factor today.  It will be cold and quite probably rainy.   Brandon Weeden has been tested twice in "Cleveland weather" this year and both times, vs the Chargers and Ravens, he was mediocre.

My prediction is that the Chiefs will be ready to put it all on the line vs the Browns.  They have nothing to lose.  Meanwhile the Browns will show up with too much on their minds today and get off to a bad start that they'll not recover from.

BL Predicts:

Kansas City Chiefs       24
Cleveland Browns        20

The BL are 8-4 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 12 on the road vs the Raiders

The Brown Log has always been inclined to favor the home team when making predictions because it is a fact that in the NFL the home team wins 58% of the time.   Home field advantage is real.   However this week against the Raiders, on paper, the home field advantage is the only factor Oakland would seem to have in their favor.  Carson Palmer is hurt and the Raiders are reeling.   Meanwhile our Browns are coming off a major victory against their biggest rival and, in spite of their record, our Browns have played well all season.

BL Predicts:  Big game for Weeden and the defense and a strong win against the Raiders.

Browns 31
Raiders  14


The BL are 7-4 year to date in predicting the outcome of Browns games.

Shocking story in KC

With regards to the murder suicide yesterday involving Jovan Belcher of the Kansas City Chiefs, there really are no words.   Time may give us more insight as to why this senseless act took place.  

Below is a photo taken from the Facebook page of Belcher's murdered girlfriend, and if you click on this link it'll take you to an article in the Kansas City Star that has more details than any other news source about what may have been going on in that home.

BL Predicts: Browns vs Steelers

This years Browns team has shown the importance of experience in the NFL.   Time and time again, our Browns have lost close games as veteran laden opponents seize key moments and our young Browns did not.  Against the Steelers this week, we face an opponent who is severely weakened by injury.   Our young team today has enough talent to beat the Steelers.  Motivation hasn't been a problem for the Browns this year but what has hurt the Browns is lack of production in key moments, especially on offense.    Having confidence in a few key plays that can produce yards in a critical moment.    Today against the Steelers is a test of character and this team has shown character all season long.



BL Predicts:   Our offense today will step up and execute in key moments and the Browns will finally win a game we deserve to win.   If the Steelers were at full strength it would be another story but today the Steelers are short handed.  It should be a day the Browns can build on.

Browns 24
Steelers 10

The BL are 6-4 year to date.

BL Predicts: Week 10 - Browns vs Cowboys

It's that time of season where the Brown Log looks to drive up it's won loss record in predicting the outcome of Browns games.  If we'd only predict the team to lose every week we'd be 7-2 right now, but as good Clevelanders, optimism must win out from time to time, hence our 5-4 record year to date.

In our last loss against the Ravens, Coach Pat Shurmur showed his inexperience by his slow decision making at key moments in the game, which resulted in several very bad play calls in key moments.   Shurmur is cutting his teeth in this his first head coaching assignment at any level and it shows.   Shurmur has also shown the ability in the past to grow from the school of hard knocks so I don't expect to see confusion on the field against the Cowboys when it comes to play calling.   However I wouldn't be surprised to see some other issue rear it's ugly head today.

Fact is that the Cowboys are at home, against a Browns team that will have an injured Joe Haden, perhaps on the field, but maybe not.

BL Predicts:

Cowboys 21
Browns 13

BL Predicts: Bye week

This week is a bye week so Browns backers across the nation can rejoice, because at the end of the day we will not have racked up yet another L

BL boldly Predicts:  The Browns will not lose today!

BL Predicts: Game 9 vs Baltimore

The Browns were forced to run the ball more than they passed the ball last week vs the Chargers due to the bad weather.  Lo and behold, we won the game!  This week Cleveland faces a motivated but banged up Ravens team.   I look for the Browns to keep on running their way to another home victory.

BL Predicts:
Browns 19
Ravens 13

The Brown Log are 5-3 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 8 vs Chargers

There is optimism building amongst Brown's fans after the fantastic performance last week by Brandon Weeden against the Colts.  The Browns lost that game due to a dropped pass late in the game but Weeden was on fire all day long.   There is however a flaw in the belief that Weeden has "come of age".  The Colts were coming off an embarrassing loss to the NY Jets in which the Jets ground game ran up 252 yards rushing and were determined not to let this happen against the Browns.  Hence Indianapolis dared the Browns to pass by stacking up to stop the run.   The Colts mediocre defense did in fact stymie the Browns rushing game but this opened the door for the Browns to throw.

There is no doubt that Weeden is improving but in the school of hard knocks, let's not hand him a PhD just yet.   He still has some lessons to learn and this week he'll be facing a top ranked defense that is far superior to what he faced last week.   The Chargers defense has only surrendered 137 points this year, one of the best defenses in the AFC.

While the Browns are playing at home, that is counterbalanced by the fact that the Chargers are fresh, coming off a bye week.   

The Browns will likely struggle to run the ball the first 5-6 times they try, which will cause Pat Shurmur to completely drop the running game as he has all season long.   With the pressure on Weeden against a really good Chargers defense, look for Weeden to make a key mistake or two.   This will likely lead to loss number 7 on the year.  

BL Predicts 

Chargers   31

Browns     16

The Brown Log are 5-2 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.      

I wonder what Jimmy Haslam has on his mind?

Fister takes a line drive to the head and stays in the game.

And they say football is a dangerous game: