BL Predicts: Week 7 vs the Colts

It's interesting to point out that in spite of the fact that the Browns are 1-5, they actually find themselves only 2 games out of the wild card chase.   If the regular season ended today, a 3-3 team would be the wild card and we all know our Browns are 1-5 so we are "in the hunt".  Do we really believe this Browns team is playoff caliber?  Maybe not, but it's nice to dream a bit.                

Predicting a road game is difficult for a Browns fan because you have to recognize that the home team historically wins 58% of the time in the NFL.  Then you have to remove your emotion, we all hope our Browns are turning the corner after a miserable 0-5 start.   Last week against the Bengals there were new signs of life.  For starters, in pre game drills I noted that Brandon Weeden now goes through visual progressions even as he practices throws before a game.   On the 71 yard touchdown to Gordon, it appeared that the Cincinnati defender was several steps behind because Weeden looked him off.   Weeden is taking the steps needed to get better and that's reassuring.

I also noticed that Pat Shurmur had his team scrimmage before the game.  Like Woody Hayes of old,  Shurmur stood in the middle of this scrimmage looking for clues into how the strong wind affected the passing and kicking game and what he saw was that in spite of the wind, Weeden was able to throw accurately and Dawson was able to get the ball through the crossbars.  This extra bit of preparation gave Shurmur the confidence he needed during the game to make the right play calls and it shows he's open to change and more importantly he's getting better on game day decision making, an area he must improve to keep his job.

The Colts are coming off a 35-9 drubbing at the hands of the Jets and are motivated.   The Colts are also 2-1 at home this year while the Browns are 0-3 on the road.  Indianapolis play in a very noisy stadium that gives them an edge.

The Jets beat the Colts by running all over them.   New York ran 44 times while throwing only 19.  Jets running back Shonn Green had 32 carries for 161 yards.   In the current season, our Browns pass the football more than all but 4 NFL teams in spite of the fact that only Kansas City has a less efficient passing attack.  Game circumstances have often dictated that we pass but it's also clear that Pat Shurmur is the "anti-Schottenheimer".   Common sense should dictate that if your team is one of the least efficient passing teams in the NFL, that a high percentage of passes increases the odds you will lose but the Browns continue to put pressure on their passing game by choosing to pass nearly 70% of the time.   Hence our 1-5 record.   I like Pat Shurmur a lot but experience counts as a head coach and one of the mistakes Shurmur continues to make is to discount the running game.   Shurmur has shown signs of growth as he progresses through the "school of hard knocks" but fully embracing the running game in not one of them and until he does our tendency to lose games will likely continue.

To win on the road against the Colts, the Browns are going to have to run the ball.  The Colts know this, I think Pat Shurmur knows this too.   Expect the Colts to be ready to defend the run.  Considering that Trent Richardson has a rib injury and may not be his usual self,  the BL Predicts the Browns will not establish the running game and this will result in another close loss:

Colts      24
Browns  17

The Brown Log are 4-2 this year in choosing the winner of Browns games.

Braxton Miller Injury

It appears from the blow taken by Braxton Miller and from initial press reports that he suffered either a head or neck injury.    Watching the video he clearly took the brunt of the blow to his head.  Miller appears to have difficulty walking after the injury and let's hope that the injury is not serious.

BL Predicts: Week 6 vs Bengals

Last week the Brown Log stuck it's 4-0 record on the line and predicted victory against the Giants.   Were it not for a bad decision late in the 2nd quarter on 3rd down and less than 1 yard to go, with the Browns leading 17-10, our prediction may well have been realized.   Instead, the Browns effectively inform the Super Bowl Giants that they will pass, by using a formation WITHOUT a running back, the Giants intercept which led to a 17 point turnaround.    Game, set and match.

This week we take on the Bengals for the second time this season.   We are at home this week and facing what is, for Pat Shurmur, a must win game.   It's a must win for Shurmur because he'll likely be dismissed this season if the Browns do not show any improvement.   A 5 win season would be improvement and we must beat the Bengals to have a reasonable chance to get to 5 wins this season.

I like Pat Shurmur.   He's honest and a good leader but the job coaching the Browns was his first head coaching assignment and his lack of experience is really showing this year.   A head coach learns by making mistakes and Shurmur continues to accumulate experience while the losses add up.   My guess is that Haslam won't accept a continuation of the Browns "education" of Shurmur and unfortunately for Pat Shurmur this may mean he will never have an opportunity to be a head coach in the NFL again.   Shurmur is a quality person, that would be a pity but it's also a pity to watch this team continue to lose.

Against the Bengals it's anybodies guess what will happen.   Lot's of information to digest with the team facing a record 12th straight loss.  There is extra pressure on Weeden by Shurmur who's grown visibly frustrated with his rookie QB's mistakes, a bit of Mickey Mantle-esque behavior by TJ Ward whose late night partying Friday caused him to be late for practice Saturday and finally we've got injuries everywhere you look.   Last but not least the weather looks to be quite tough today with high winds and likely rain.

I'm guessing the Browns just don't have the motivation or the gas to hang with the Bengals today.   It's going to be a close game but I believe the Browns are going to lose.

Bengals 21
Browns 17

The Brown Log are 4-1 year to date in predicting the winner or loser of Browns games.

Hot off the wire:

Does not require much imagination to hypothesize about TJ Ward's Friday evening activities. A wild night perhaps??

BL Predicts: Week 5 vs the reigning Super Bowl champs

Nobody, and I do mean nobody, is predicting a Browns victory this Sunday against the reigning Super Bowl champion Giants.  








With the Brown Log proudly boasting a perfect 4-0 record this season in game predictions, perhaps we're feeling a bit cocky and ready to go with our guts on this one.   I can't put my finger on it but something tells me that the Browns are going to win.

Some random thoughts as to why I feel that way:

- The Giants are fairly dinged up with minor but nagging injuries.
- The Browns are more rested than New York, coming off a Thursday game on September 27th.

Perhaps the reason for my belief that the Browns can win this one comes from some pre game statements by Trent Richardson, who is looking to spark his teammates.  Football is an emotional game and young Mr. Richardson has upped the ante this week but stating that he believes he can be successful against the Giants D.

I look for the Browns to surprise New York with some plays that go against their tendencies season to date, jump to an early lead, then continue to hang on for a surprise victory.  

BL Predicts
Browns 23
Giants 17

The Brown Log are 4-0 this season in predicting the outcome of Browns games.

Finally, an honest athlete:

I imagine the NCAA will come down quite hard on young Cardale Jones. After all he's doing damage to the reputation of college athletics. This as we know is, in the eyes of the NCAA, a sin greater than any other.

We're number one!

All is not lost Browns fans, we do have the pole position in one statistical category: dropped passes.  

NFL Leader board:  dropped passes

Brandon Weeden (17)

Drew Brees (16)

Matt Stafford (16)

Aaron Rodgers (14)

Peyton Manning (14)

We're number 32!!

This weeks ranking by Sports Illustrated of the NFL's 32 teams has our Browns once again ranked in the basement:

Here's a quote from the New York press

"Cleveland is one of the worst teams in the league by just about any metric you want to use to judge a football team's performance"

That about sums it up...

BL Predicts: Week 4 Browns vs Ravens

Tonights game promises nothing less than a complete dismantling of our Browns by the Ravens. 

Browns   14

Ravens    34

The Brown Log are 3-0 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

Unbelievably bad call

There is only one solution to the owner's lockout of NFL referees. Don't watch another game until owners get the real refs back.

BL Predicts: Week 3 vs Buffalo

This weeks match vs. Buffalo might be the hardest to predict all season, especially for a die hard Browns fan.   It is early in the season and still difficult to know if the Browns or Bills are truly competitive NFL teams.  This game will tell us a lot about what kind of season our Browns are going to have because the Bills on paper appear to be beatable, especially in our home stadium.   Are we going to have a shot at a competitive season with 7 or 8 wins or is this team yet another 3 to 5 win loser.

I hope I am wrong but the following factors lead me to conclude today will be another loss for our Cleveland Browns:

1.  Joe Haden's suspension has badly exposed the Browns secondary.   Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a top tier QB but he is capable enough to do damage against mediocre defenders.   Losing Haden really opens the Browns up to getting beat on a few key plays.

2.  Chan Gailey plays "Marty Schottenheimer football", in other words, he works the clock by running the ball and his teams are coached to not make mistakes.  The Bills will likely not have many turnovers and penalties.   In the regular season what that translates to is wins, especially against teams like the Browns who are loaded with young players and tend towards mistakes.

3.  Bills DE Mario Williams is a force in the pass rush and is bound to put more pressure on Brandon Weeden than the Bengals did.  Weeden had a good game against Cincinnati but his pass protection was quite good.  Nobody had a clean hard shot at Weeden last week, that might change this week leading to a turnover or lower completion rate.

4.  Browns rookies are going to face more pressure against Buffalo than they did against Cincinnati.  I believe the game will be decided on turnovers and penalities and having so many rookies will be a distinct disadvantage today for our Browns.

5.  Finally, I am convinced that our new owner, Jim Haslam is going to be a great owner but something most folks are not talking about is the fact that the entire management team has to be feeling like lame ducks.  Haslam himself is sending some signals that heads are going to roll and it would be naive to think that everyone in the Browns operation is not feeling this.  Folks are going to be distracted, and since they are human beings with families to feed, they are also going to be spending some of their time reaching into their networks to see what job opportunities might be out there.   Right now this might only dilute the teams concentration by a very small amount but football is a game of inches and every inch counts.   In a small way he is helping a self fulfilling prophecy in 2012 of losing football.

BL Predicts:

Buffalo Bills 20
Cleveland Browns 17

The Brown Log are 2-0 year to date on the prediction front.

What a relief!

Only a Brown's fan could take solace from a loss such as today's setback in Cincinnati. However it is an immense relief to see both Weeden and Richardson play well against the Bengals.