It's interesting to point out that in spite of the fact that the Browns are 1-5, they actually find themselves only 2 games out of the wild card chase. If the regular season ended today, a 3-3 team would be the wild card and we all know our Browns are 1-5 so we are "in the hunt". Do we really believe this Browns team is playoff caliber? Maybe not, but it's nice to dream a bit.
Predicting a road game is difficult for a Browns fan because you have to recognize that the home team historically wins 58% of the time in the NFL. Then you have to remove your emotion, we all hope our Browns are turning the corner after a miserable 0-5 start. Last week against the Bengals there were new signs of life. For starters, in pre game drills I noted that Brandon Weeden now goes through visual progressions even as he practices throws before a game. On the 71 yard touchdown to Gordon, it appeared that the Cincinnati defender was several steps behind because Weeden looked him off. Weeden is taking the steps needed to get better and that's reassuring.
I also noticed that Pat Shurmur had his team scrimmage before the game. Like Woody Hayes of old, Shurmur stood in the middle of this scrimmage looking for clues into how the strong wind affected the passing and kicking game and what he saw was that in spite of the wind, Weeden was able to throw accurately and Dawson was able to get the ball through the crossbars. This extra bit of preparation gave Shurmur the confidence he needed during the game to make the right play calls and it shows he's open to change and more importantly he's getting better on game day decision making, an area he must improve to keep his job.
The Colts are coming off a 35-9 drubbing at the hands of the Jets and are motivated. The Colts are also 2-1 at home this year while the Browns are 0-3 on the road. Indianapolis play in a very noisy stadium that gives them an edge.
The Jets beat the Colts by running all over them. New York ran 44 times while throwing only 19. Jets running back Shonn Green had 32 carries for 161 yards. In the current season, our Browns pass the football more than all but 4 NFL teams in spite of the fact that only Kansas City has a less efficient passing attack. Game circumstances have often dictated that we pass but it's also clear that Pat Shurmur is the "anti-Schottenheimer". Common sense should dictate that if your team is one of the least efficient passing teams in the NFL, that a high percentage of passes increases the odds you will lose but the Browns continue to put pressure on their passing game by choosing to pass nearly 70% of the time. Hence our 1-5 record. I like Pat Shurmur a lot but experience counts as a head coach and one of the mistakes Shurmur continues to make is to discount the running game. Shurmur has shown signs of growth as he progresses through the "school of hard knocks" but fully embracing the running game in not one of them and until he does our tendency to lose games will likely continue.
To win on the road against the Colts, the Browns are going to have to run the ball. The Colts know this, I think Pat Shurmur knows this too. Expect the Colts to be ready to defend the run. Considering that Trent Richardson has a rib injury and may not be his usual self, the BL Predicts the Browns will not establish the running game and this will result in another close loss:
Colts 24
Browns 17
The Brown Log are 4-2 this year in choosing the winner of Browns games.
No comments:
Post a Comment