BL Predicts: Week 3 vs Buffalo

This weeks match vs. Buffalo might be the hardest to predict all season, especially for a die hard Browns fan.   It is early in the season and still difficult to know if the Browns or Bills are truly competitive NFL teams.  This game will tell us a lot about what kind of season our Browns are going to have because the Bills on paper appear to be beatable, especially in our home stadium.   Are we going to have a shot at a competitive season with 7 or 8 wins or is this team yet another 3 to 5 win loser.

I hope I am wrong but the following factors lead me to conclude today will be another loss for our Cleveland Browns:

1.  Joe Haden's suspension has badly exposed the Browns secondary.   Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a top tier QB but he is capable enough to do damage against mediocre defenders.   Losing Haden really opens the Browns up to getting beat on a few key plays.

2.  Chan Gailey plays "Marty Schottenheimer football", in other words, he works the clock by running the ball and his teams are coached to not make mistakes.  The Bills will likely not have many turnovers and penalties.   In the regular season what that translates to is wins, especially against teams like the Browns who are loaded with young players and tend towards mistakes.

3.  Bills DE Mario Williams is a force in the pass rush and is bound to put more pressure on Brandon Weeden than the Bengals did.  Weeden had a good game against Cincinnati but his pass protection was quite good.  Nobody had a clean hard shot at Weeden last week, that might change this week leading to a turnover or lower completion rate.

4.  Browns rookies are going to face more pressure against Buffalo than they did against Cincinnati.  I believe the game will be decided on turnovers and penalities and having so many rookies will be a distinct disadvantage today for our Browns.

5.  Finally, I am convinced that our new owner, Jim Haslam is going to be a great owner but something most folks are not talking about is the fact that the entire management team has to be feeling like lame ducks.  Haslam himself is sending some signals that heads are going to roll and it would be naive to think that everyone in the Browns operation is not feeling this.  Folks are going to be distracted, and since they are human beings with families to feed, they are also going to be spending some of their time reaching into their networks to see what job opportunities might be out there.   Right now this might only dilute the teams concentration by a very small amount but football is a game of inches and every inch counts.   In a small way he is helping a self fulfilling prophecy in 2012 of losing football.

BL Predicts:

Buffalo Bills 20
Cleveland Browns 17

The Brown Log are 2-0 year to date on the prediction front.

What a relief!

Only a Brown's fan could take solace from a loss such as today's setback in Cincinnati. However it is an immense relief to see both Weeden and Richardson play well against the Bengals.

BL Predicts: Week 2 Cleveland vs Cincinnati

In what is shaping up to be an easy season to predict Brown's games, Sunday's matchup in Cincinnati looks clearly like a pending disaster for our Brownies. The book is out on Brandon Weeden, pressure him even a little bit and his skills vaporize. Trent Richardson needs a few more games before he can even think about carrying the team and oh yeah, we've lost Joe Haden for four weeks.

Week 2 holds little hope of a Brown's win. The Bengals will be ready and the Browns won't.

Bengals 27
Browns 14

 The Brown Log are 1-0 year to date on the prognostication front.

Hindsight is 20/20

Here's an interesting analysis of Brandon Weeden's college performance at Oklahoma State when his pass protection broke down. What is very noticeable so far about Weeden is that his performance drops dramatically when put under even minimal pressure. He has no feel for moving around in the pocket to buy time. The Brown's entire season, not to mention Pat Shurmur's future, hinges on whether or not the coaching staff can teach Weeden how to manage and react under pressure. Can Weeden unlearn "fear"?? Maybe but it is dubious to think that he can be reprogrammed in days or even weeks.

Brandon Weeden's passer rating is 5.1

Under the most generous of interpretations, Brandon Weeden had a rookie debut for the ages, the ice ages. 4 interceptions, a 34% completion percentage and two fumbles. Astonishingly, the Browns offensive line actually gave quite good protection to their rookie QB.

Even factoring in dropped passes doesn't help much because the Eagles blew chances to intercept two other Weeden throws. Weeden looked at times like he was blind, launching numerous passes that came nowhere near the intended target. Is Weeden simply out of sync with his West Coast receivers? I hope so because the alternative would be that he simply is inaccurate. If however Weeden and his receivers are in fact still making different reads in the west coast scheme, much blame falls on coach Shurmur for not giving Weeden more reps in the preseason.

No matter how you roll it up, this was a very bad day for Brandon Weeden and the Browns.

BL predicts: week 1 vs Eagles

Eagles 31
Browns 16

Joe Paterno lied

Joe Paterno has been held up for decades as the symbol of how big money "for profit" football can coexist with an institution of higher education. The fact that the "marketing" of Paterno as some kind of saint turned out to be BS shouldn't surprise anyone. What is surprising however is that Saint Paterno was willing to put money above saving children from the worst horrors imaginable. The entire system of college football needs to be dismantled.

Browns finish 2012 season at 4-13

The Redskins outbid the Browns in the battle for Robert Griffin. The more I see of this guy the more it's clear that he's the real deal. Chalk up another L for our Browns.

2012: Will the draft bring us RGIII?

Let's hope so.

BL Predicts: Week 16 vs Pittsburgh

Bill Fitch once said that close only counts in horse shoes, hand grenades and drive in movies. Well, in 2011 the Browns actually came close to having a decent team. There are numerous games that we could have won had we had a break here or there or avoided a bone head mistake or two. All that said, we are going to lose more games in 2011 than Eric Mangini lost in 2010. At least the Holmgren years have been consistent.

Against Pittsburgh tomorrow we can only hope the game will be close. The Steelers have a lot to play for and since they are our arch rival, it would be nice to hurt them badly by beating them. Slim chance of that, though we might just come "close".


BL Predicts

Browns 9
Steelers 23

The Brown Log is 9-6 year to date on the prediction front.

Disarray is standard operating procedure for the Cleveland Browns, both on and off the field

During the soon to be finished 2011 season in which our Browns won only 4 games, there were several episodes of poor organization that marked key division losses.

For example, in the first game of the season against the Bengals, the Browns defense was caught in the huddle by the Bengals offense who proceeded to pass for the game winning touchdown.

In our most recent game against the Ravens, with less than one minute remaining in the first half, the Browns had a first down inside the Baltimore 10 yard line. While the Browns had no time outs left at that point due to fits of disorganization on offense earlier in the same half, there was plenty of time on the clock to take 3 shots at a scoring pass in the end zone before trying a field goal. So what happened last Saturday? The Browns threw a flat pass that kept the clock moving, then our Brownies tried a run with less than 10 seconds on the clock. Hillis was stopped short of the goal which allowed time to run out without even attempting a field goal. This in a game eventually lost by 6 points. I have been watching the NFL for 35 years and cannot recall a worse case of clock management. It was pure Three Stooges.

Now Browns fans are being told that we need to be patient and that hope springs eternal because our Browns have several high draft picks in the 2012 draft.

What is highly concerning to me is the fact that our Director of Player Personnel, Jon Sandusky may have other things on this mind. Just for starters on November 8, Tony Grossi tweeted that Sandusky was taking a leave of absence.


Later the same day, the same Grossi tweeted a confirmation that Sandusky has in fact remained with the team.

Tony Grossi's reputation is rock solid, he would not tweet something like this without talking to a source inside the Browns.



This whole mess has nothing to do per se with the personal life of Jon Sandusky, who has a right to privacy and should not be judged by events he has no control over. What is of major concern is the dissarray both on and off the field in the Cleveland Browns organization at such a critical moment for the Browns.

The above sequence reminds me of a front office version of the defense remaining in the huddle against the Bengals. For this to happen means there is confusion and disorganization in the Browns org. A bad sign considering that if the Browns screw up this draft, it likely means 10 more years of losing in Cleveland.

The Brown Log has been a big supporter of Mike Holmgren, but our patience is wearing thin. Let's hope that the Browns Director of Player Personnel, Jon Sandusky, together with the entire Browns organization is focused 100% on getting this team on track in the future and that the mistakes of 2011 both on the field and off, are behind the team.

Browns QB Colt McCoy still out with concussion

Looks like Colt's long sophomore season has ended. The report card for Colt this year is at best a C. He had very little help but it's also true that he absolutely did not raise the level of play of his teammates. He sunk to their level and in the NFL that's just not good enough. Can he improve? Maybe but he will clearly have to fight for playing time next year. I think he will be a good backup for the next few years and hope the Browns hold onto him in that role.
Browns QB Colt McCoy still out with concussion  | ajc.com

Yet another way to lose a football game!

That bonehead series of plays at the end of the first half was almost as embarrassing as Phil Taylor's offsides to clinch the loss.