Brown BLog Predicts: Week 2 vs Baker

As a long term Browns fan, one habit I devolved into over the years that cushioned me from the pain of non stop losing was to be critical of the team.   That habit allowed me to take some small amount of pleasure when the team piled up the losses.  You could state accurately that the existence of this blog which was created 17 years ago, is in large part due to the emotional release I enjoy when I dump criticism on the Cleveland Browns.   For many of those years, I found the exercise of exposing flaws to be one that required some thoughtful analysis.    What is remarkable today is that pointing out moronic decisions by the Cleveland Browns is so easy and obvious that doing so is almost pointless.   It’s one thing to win a nuanced debate, but pointing out the Browns flaws has gotten way too easy. The blog has had over 150,000 visits in 17 years   Hopefully the Browns get to a Super Bowl before it hits 1,000,000 visits..  it would be so nice to slice and dice the reasons the Browns won for a change  

Sunday is going to be Cleveland Browns theater of the absurd in it's purest form.   Baker Mayfield is going to pound the coffin nails of the worst trade in NFL history  - BAM, BAM, BAM.   (Stealing from Dave Lapham there )

I could go on but there is zero satisfaction in pointing out the obvious and utter stupidity of the Cleveland Browns.   My biggest regret in the run up this season is that I believed that the Browns would only play Deshaun Watson if he were healthy.  Watching him against Jacksonville it became painfully obvious that Watson's arm is not the same arm that made him a franchise QB.  Yes Watson threw a 46 yard touchdown late, but even that play was revealing.   In the NFL a split second marks the difference between elite and run of the mill.   Watch Watson prior to 2020 and you'll see an elite arm.  That 46 yard TD on Sunday looked a lot like a Dillon Gabriel long throw.   Get a running start and put your whole body into a rainbow.   Watson's interception was more telling.  Not enough lift on that ball and not enough zip.   Watson's injury was a displaced fracture of his glenoid, the socket that holds his arm.   To my knowledge that injury was unprecedented for any QB in NFL history.   

Below is an image of what a displaced fracture of the glenoid might look like.....  

I forgave Deshaun Watson a long time ago for his off the field alleged issues, he is not a bad guy in my opinion.  His teammates respect him too.   But Watson is done as an NFL QB and the people who run the team and were supposed to be able to judge his physical state, were not able to figure it out....

Can the Browns be forgiven for hoping that Watson could play and succeed in the NFL at a fraction of his previous arm strength?  After all, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning had success in the NFL in their later years with arms that were questionable.  No they cannot because Watson clearly doesn't "operate" in the same galaxy that Peyton Manning did.   For a weak armed QB to succeed in the NFL he needs to get his team into the right play the vast majority of the time.   Watson so far hasn't shown he can do that and the Browns as a result are stuck in the quicksand of their own creation.   

Brown BLog Predicts

Tampa Bay    38

Browns          17

The Brown BLog are 0-1 this season but we'll be fine now that we are predicting losses again every week.

I drank the Kool Aid....

After the debacle at Jacksonville yesterday, I cannot believe I drank the Kool Aid once again.

The Browns were horrible and Deshaun Watson looks like his arm is toast.  I trusted that if the Browns were playing Deshaun Watson that his arm is 100%.   But there are more than one example where the Browns play athletes who don't belong on the field.   Anthony Schwartz is one good example, Dorian Thompson Robinson is another.

I would think if Watson's arm is not right, if the shoulder surgery did not return his arm to full strength, I would think that would be obvious.  In fact, time after time in the pre season, Watson threw interceptions in practice.  

Only the Browns it seems ignore what their eyes tell them.

I hope Watson improves and has a good game against Tampa, but right now he looks like Peyton Manning at the end of his career.   Except Manning was so dialed into what defenses are doing that he won a Super Bowl with a weakened arm.  

Watson is far from dialed in....  he couldn't even "operate" the team on time................

Brown BLog Predicts: Week 1 vs Jacksonville

 

I am still not a believer in Jacksonville even after their 13-4 result last season.   They showed their true colors in the playoffs vs the Bills.   I do however believe the Browns will flash on offense with Deshaun Watson playing like the QB he once was now that he is "relatively" healthy and finally out from underneath Kevin Stefanski's Ivy League Offense.

Look for a surprise today

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns 27

Jags 24

Brown BLog Predicts: AFC North 2026

 2026 is  year of change for the AFC North with 2 Hall of Fame level coaches moving on in Pittsburgh and Baltimore.   Kevin Stefanski was fired which leaves the Bengals as the only AFC North team returning a Head Coach this season.

Here are my predictions for each team:

First Place:  Cincinnati Bengals   11-6

- Everything still depends on Joe Burrow staying healthy.   If he does, the Bengals are Super Bowl  contenders

Second Place:   Cleveland Browns  9-8

- OK before you tell me I am crazy, I would like to point out that last year I nailed 5-12 for our Browns, most pundits had them doing much better.  And I have been a Browns pessimist for years now.   In 2024 most everyone had the Browns as a 10 win+ team.  I had 7-10.  They finished 3-14 of course.  

So why the sudden optimism???  Because I believe Deshaun Watson is healthy and because I believe Todd Monken actually knows what to do with Deshaun Watson and has the talent at receiver to make a real go of it.  Layer in a weak schedule and I see a surprise in store this season in Cleveland.   

I believe Deshaun Watson will be Comeback Player of the Year this season and the Browns will be entertaining and competitive.

Third Place:  Baltimore Ravens  7-10

Something feels wrong in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson's contract extension not done.    

Is Lamar unhappy?  I think that is likely.   

Is he 100% healthy?   He wasn't last year. Maybe years of risky running have him worn down.

Is Jesse Minter the next John Harbaugh?  I don't think so, he is definitely not the next Mike Macdonald either. 

I see a tough year ahead for the Ravens.  I still think they are a smart and well run org but maybe this year they won't be as lucky as they need to be.

Last Place:   Pittsburgh Steelers   6-11 

Mike Tomlin had 19 consecutive non losing seasons.  Look for that streak to come to an end this year.  A QB who is too old with plainly diminished skills and a Head Coach who won't be able to shape a game plan that wins more than half the games like Tomlin did every year.

Seriously?!?!?!

 

Inside the building in Berea I imagine this shirt evokes knowing grins and belly laughs that derive from a collective organizational belief that the Browns front office is more clever than other NFL front offices.

If you have grown up in Cleveland and supported the Cleveland Browns your entire life & have family members who loved the Browns and rooted for dynasty Browns Hall of Famers like Bill Willis, Marion Motley, Jim Brown and Otto Graham, all world class athletes who spent their careers as Cleveland Browns winning championships and did not have to be pawned off to fuel yet another epic run of analytics driven rebuild losses, what this shirt translates to is "Hey Browns fans, Trust us or Fuck off!"

Typical tone deaf bullshit.....from an org that is very soon going to ask for 5 figure PSL fees from season ticket holders like me who are (were) looking forward to the Brook Park Dome.

My retort to this display of ignorance is "you better start demonstrating that brilliance very soon by winning NFL games" otherwise my answer to the request to pay an exorbitant PSL fee is going to be a big fat "NO THANK YOU!" followed by "Los Angeles made me do it".........................

Dillon's "Injury"... A Perfect Solution to the Browns having their Bluff called

This morning the Browns leaked that Dillon Gabriel was going to make their 53 man roster.

This evening he was placed on Injured Reserve for an injury that took place in the New England game.

Fact - Most NFL players are nursing some pain. 

Here is my opinion of what happened today.  Under normal circumstances I would say Gabriel would play through whatever back pain he has.  But since the Browns were not able to engineer a trade AND the Browns did not want to risk losing Gabriel to a future opponent early in the season, the Browns were able to manipulate the NFL's enormous medical gray area. An NFL quarterback can have back spasms, soreness, inflammation, etc., while reasonable doctors could disagree about whether he is capable of playing football. I am sure the Browns' medical staff legitimately documented Gabriel's back condition and concluded rehabilitation is appropriate but let's get real.  If Gabriel was #1 or #2 and even #3, he'd be dressing on September 13....

Dillon Gabriel: The Power of Positive Leaking!!

The Browns have already leaked that they intend to protect Dillon Gabriel as their QB 3.

I like to call this stage of every preseason, the Brown's "Norman Vincent Peale" stage.   Every pre season right before cut down, the Browns try to bluff the rest of the NFL about the odd man odd in their QB room in hopes that some other NFL GM bites.   Two years in a row the result was Tyler Huntley getting cut and picked up by the Ravens.

There is no doubt come end of day Sunday, the Browns will have 4 QB's on their 53 man roster.  But will NFL General Managers panic and give up a draft pick for Gabriel.  Seriously?   The problem with Gabriel that most NFL exec's understand is that even if he were 6' 5" tall, his arm isn't good enough for the NFL.

It is a dangerous game because our second opponent Tampa just cut their veteran second string QB Jake Browning and now have rookie UDFA Jalon Daniels as their backup.  I cannot imagine the Bucs giving up anything for Gabriel, but I could well imagine the Bucs jumping on Gabriel when the Browns are forced to cut him.  

Will the Browns find a suitor for Gabriel who is willing to part with a 6th or 7th round draft pick???  

I doubt it....  but if and when they finally cut Gabriel a few days later, somebody like Tampa will pick him up if for no other reason than to download a few insights into the Browns playbook...  

Browns Communication Suggestion: Just tell the fucking truth for God's sake...

 

The Cleveland Browns have known for months they are going to start Deshaun Watson at QB during the 2026 NFL season yet because they feared public reaction they've shaped a false narrative to avoid the subject altogether.   They make this mistake over and over and over and over and over again.

I suppose it's a reflection of their leadership which seeks to avoid pain and might be isolated from how normal people think in Northern Ohio.

This should not be complicated.  Don't overthink it.  The Browns should simply communicate truthfully with the public.   

The have a QB in  Deshaun Watson who once was a top 5 QB.   Injuries, bad scheme, suspensions, off the field issues have all played their role in his under performance but it's obvious to me at least, he's still got elite skills.  What is so damn hard about being honest with the public? 

The Browns could have got past all the public angst months ago had they simply stated the obvious fact that Deshaun Watson would be their QB this season.

Deshaun's Blow Up

 I once watched a documentary about Brett Favre that revealed over the top character flaws that made Deshaun Watson's alleged misdeeds, by comparison, seem mild.  Yet Favre to this day is mostly idolized by fans across the nation.   The conversation about why probably involves race and other nuances I'm not interested in delving into, but suffice it to say I feel like if you've followed Deshaun Watson's career it's clear he's a good teammate, probably a good guy and the venom that some Browns fans express is rooted in issues that go well beyond anything Deshaun Watson is responsible for.   Did Watson do some things he's not proud of.  Sure, most human beings have something in their past they regret.   Pro athletes especially young wealthy men, have opportunities thrown at them they never imagined when they were young and poor.  That can lead to a sense of entitlement that often goes wrong.  That's what i think happened and  I have no problem saying Watson is probably a good man who today has learned and matured.

I was in the stands Saturday for the Bills pre season game.  I didn't boo but there were enough fans who did to make me uncomfortable.    Half the fans in a half empty stadium were Bills fans and they didn't boo either, so at best, it can be said that a few hundred to a few thousand Browns fans feel the need to disrespect Deshaun Watson.  

I am worried something deeper is going on because Watson didn't play well and my worry is that his right arm is sore.   His velocity was off, if he's hurting that is very bad news.   I don't think Watson would get quite so emotional if it was strictly about the fans.   Hopefully I am wrong because if Watson is still not 100% physically, he may well never be.   But he looked good against Chicago so there's hope.  Maybe playing Watson with the 3rd team was not a great idea and that could explain things too.

Time will tell.   I still foresee Watson being named the starter because he's a better QB than Shedeur Sanders and if healthy, Watson has the best chance to lead the Browns down the road of success this season

Preseason Game 1 vs Bears: Deshaun Watson's Back !

Clearly the NFL Preseason does not reflect the difficulty of winning in the NFL in the regular season however there are takeaways from the preseason thus far that are impossible to ignore:

- Since the beginning of camp, Deshaun Watson, for the first time as a Cleveland Brown, is completely relaxed and comfortable.   This is obvious in his interactions with the press & his body language.   Why?  I believe it's simple.   For the first time, he has a Head Coach in Todd Monken, who is allowing him to play free.  I think even Watson bought into the bullshit that Kevin Stefanski was selling him back in the beginning about running his Ivy League offense.   The irony is that Stefanski was successful in transforming Watson into a journeyman QB.   Saturday for the first time in nearly 5 years we saw a confident Deshaun Watson.  The pass to KC Concepcion on the play before the Concepcion Touchdown, was pure Watson.   Concepcion had single coverage on the right side of the field.  Watson threw a rocket for a 15 yard gain into the red zone.  Next play was a TD by Concepcion.

- It's simple.   The problem was not signing Deshaun Watson.   Asking a Ferrari in Watson to run Kevin Stefanski's Volkswagen offense was the "big swing and miss".   

- On defense, it is impossible to draw many conclusions because most key defenders on the Browns did not play but one conclusion is possible.  I am very concerned about the Browns lack of depth on D.   It's clear that this season the Browns are going to try to mimic what Seattle implemented on defense last season.   Lots and lots of blitzing on 2nd and 10 or more and 3rd and 10 or more.  Lots of disguising who is going to blitz and a lot of blitzing by defensive backs.    The Browns did not show any of that yesterday of course, but what I did see is that our second and third teamers on defense aren't very good.  Let's hope we stay healthy but the 17 game NFL season is going to have moments in which your backups have to play and those are going to be moments where Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson will eat us alive.

Bottom line - the days of not scoring 20 points a game are behind us.  Deshaun is back!   But the days of not giving up more than 20 points a game are probably behind us too.  

2026 is going to be a wild ride, but we are going to compete and we are going to win. 

Andrew Berry's Annual QB Hype Derby

It has become an odd pre season tradition in Cleveland for the Browns to go into Training Camp with 4 Quarterbacks and attempt to hype one or more of those QB's with the aspiration of trading one for a draft pick during the cut down to 53 man rosters.

Twice now they've tried and failed to move Tyler Huntley for one of those cherished 6th rounders.   To add insult to injury, both times NFL GM's called their bluff, the Browns cut Huntley and surprise, he signed with division rival Baltimore who undoubtedly downloaded Huntley's knowledge of the Browns playbook.

This season it feels to me like the Browns are playing the same game again.  It has been obvious for weeks that Deshaun Watson will be the starting QB this season.   Even Todd Monken seemed to confirm that but suddenly the narrative changed.  It's a battle between Shedeur Sanders and Deshaun Watson, ok yeah right... and now even Dillon Gabriel has earned more reps thanks to his “good work”.

Don't get me wrong, I like Shedeur.  I see Brian Sipe when I watch Shedeur.  Off the charts charisma and leadership and a gamer's mentality.  The young man knows how to compete.   But much like Brian Sipe, Shedeur needs seasoning, the kind that comes from sitting, practicing and learning.   Brian Sipe basically sat for 3 full seasons from 1972 to 1973 on the taxi squad and 1974 as a backup before he started to flash anything near the brilliance he eventually displayed starting with a few flashes in 1975 and consistent good play until he peaked as NFL MVP in 1980.

The Browns probably don't have the time or desire to invest those years into Shedeur and they probably see his best case scenario as a starter but not a franchise QB.  

So build him up and move him now for one of those glorious 6th round draft picks.  As a Back up plan maybe they move Dillon Gabriel.  But honestly, I don’t think even Kevin Stefanski would give up a sixth rounder for him.  The final outcome will probably be cutting Gabriel because I for one, don't believe any NFL GM buys into the charade.

   

Analytics Applied: Mike Tomlin

I was reading an article this week about Mike Tomlin and inevitably anyone who writes about Tomlin feels the need to point out that his Steeler's teams have not done well in the playoffs in the recent past. 

A few obvious observations about Tomlin came to my mind (obvious to me at least), the primary observation is that analytics can be used to context Tomlin's career so let's have at it.  He provided 19 years of data.

- An average NFL Coach should win one Superbowl every 32 years.   Tomlin won one Super Bowl in 19 years.  GRADE:  Above average

- An average NFL Coach should play in one Superbowl every 16 years.  Tomlin played in one Super Bowl every 8.5 years.  GRADE:  Above average

- An average NFL Coach would win half the games he coaches.  Tomlin's record was 193-114-2 which equates to Tomlin winning 62.4% of the games he coached.   GRADE:  Well above average

- An average NFL Coach will have some seasons where he loses more games than he wins.  Tomlin in 19 seasons NEVER lost more games than he won.  Even Bill Belichick or Paul Brown cannot make that claim.   GRADE:   Extraordinary given his 19 seasons as a head coach.

What do the analytics tell us?  They tell us that Mike Tomlin was and is an exceptional NFL Head Coach.

If the Steelers lack of success in the playoffs indicates anything it is that they needed to raise the bar on their evaluation of talent.  I cannot be sure how deeply Tomlin was involved in evaluating talent, but the data sure does indicate that he got far more from the athletes on his team that other NFL coaches did.

When Ben Roethlisberger retired it's not on Tomlin for not having a QB teed up to move the team forward and don't expect the Steelers results to get any better in 2026 now that Tomlin is gone.  If anything it's far more likely the Steelers put up a losing season 

Nailed it!!

All I got wrong was the uniform

GRADES

Andrew Berry:  A+

Jimmy Haslam:  A+

Myles:  Gets his shot at a Super Bowl:  A+

 

Myles - Connecting the Dots

My last Brown BLog post dealt with the obvious:  Deshaun Watson is going to be the Cleveland Browns QB in 2026 and I believe it very likely he will both play well and the Browns will have a surprisingly successful 2026 season.  

What my post did not address is yet another obvious fact.  Under no circumstances will Deshaun Watson be a member of the Cleveland Browns in 2027.   For starters, even if the Browns want Watson to return, he will not.   The cheering by Browns fans in the aftermath of his 2024 injury locked that outcome in but Watson would also be 31 years old, he may well be the 2026 Comeback Player of the Year but considering the history of injuries and the volume of potential franchise QB's coming into the 2027 draft, I think the Browns will be ready to move on too.

So where does that leave the Browns today?

It leaves the Browns with an urgent need to accumulate draft capital to position themselves to move up to the top of the 2027 draft.

How can they do that?   Only one way:  Trade Myles Garrett, soon.

Yes Myles Garrett is a future Hall of Famer and he most certainly is the best player in today's NFL however the Seattle Seahawks with their innovative defensive blitzing schemes, proved last season that you can win in the NFL with a defensive line that is good but you don't necessarily need one dominant pass rusher.   That said, Myles Garrett transforms a defense for one simple reason.   His presence means your defense is playing with 10 defenders against 9 offensive opponents because it takes double teams to even have a hope of stopping Myles Garrett.   Some team that is close to winning it all will pay a big premium to get Myles Garrett.

Now is the time.  Garrett is reigning NFL Defensive Player of the year, he's 30 years old and at the peak of his game but the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow is Arch Manning and in the NFL, a franchise QB is a must if you aspire to consistent winning and to Super Bowls

Let's get real about Deshaun Watson

Maybe it is only obvious to me, but Deshaun Watson is going to be the Browns starting QB this season and well he should be.  

Let's start this topic by looking at a few important points

- As bad as the perception is of the Deshaun Watson project, Watson is 9-10 as Browns QB.  He gives us the best chance to have a good season in a year in which the strength of schedule is weak.

- I will never understand how fans could boo Watson when he was hurt.  I wrote this the day after it happened.  Watson is a warrior and unfortunately too many Browns fans disrespected him in a terrible moment.   We should support our QB.  Pittsburgh fans forgave Ben Rothlisberger for alleged acts FAR worse than anything Watson was ever accused of.  Grow up folks!

- The play that ruined Watson's right shoulder was a designed run between the tackles called by Kevin Stefanski in a game vs Tennessee.  On that play, Donovan Peoples-Jones decided to take the play off instead of blocking his man Tennessee safety #37 Amani Hooker.  Peoples-Jones was traded a few weeks later which was no coincidence but Kevin Stefanski's play call to run his $230M QB between the tackles has to be one of the worst play calling decisions in NFL history

Watch the play that ruined Deshaun Watson for 2 years  click right here to go to the play 

Watson kept playing that day, but mark my words, THAT was the play that tore Watson's shoulder up and it is 100% on Kevin Stefanski and #11 DPJ

All of the above adds up to one thing in my mind.  Watson was basically a .500 QB playing hurt and playing with a playcaller who consistently called plays that Watson was not suited to.   Todd Monken won't repeat those mistakes.

Watson is clearly 100% now and he's going to put up a good season under Todd Monken.

What Jimmy Haslam Wants

 

I have something in common with Browns owner Jimmy Haslam.

What might that be?   I'm getting old and when you get old you start thinking about things like legacy, and unfortunately but realistically, you do start to consider your mortality.  When I think about Jimmy Haslam in this sense, I feel a sort of odd kinship.   And I think I know what his aspirations and plans are for the Cleveland Browns.

In 2029 the Browns are going to have a new dome.   As a native Clevelander who loves Ohio Football, my first knee jerk reaction to the Brook Park dome was negative but the more I thought about it and more I saw, I changed my mind.   Why?  Brian Sipe and Ozzie Newsome.   Yes, in my opinion, the 1980 Browns win the Super Bowl in 1980 had the playoff taken place in a dome.   Jimmy Haslam doesn't own a time machine so we can't win in 1980 but I think my point is the NFL is a QB driven league and our next Brian Sipe or Bernie Kosar level QB needs a field he can win on.

Which brings me to Jimmy Haslam and getting old.   Here is the way I think about my life.  I hope I have 20 good years left, I know I don't have 30 good years left and I think at the least I have 10 good years left.

All of the above stated, I think Jimmy Haslam knows that the surest bet on a QB that exists in college football today is Arch Manning.  As an old guy I can vouch for that.  I have a friend who lettered at Ole Miss and was Archie Manning's teammate.   My personal opinion is that Archie Manning was one of the greatest QB's to ever play the game.   But there is also Peyton and Eli, both of whom I've watched in person.   Both of whom won two Super Bowls a piece.

Arch is a no brainer.

So my prediction is this.   Jimmy Haslam leads his organization to do whatever it takes to get that #1 pick in 2027 and grab Arch Manning who will be in his third pro season when the new dome opens up and the next 10 years of Cleveland Browns football, should Arch be our QB, will be glorious!

Let's hope it happens.

Todd Monken - Built in Laterals are Coming

There was a very interesting interview with Todd Monken on Pro Football Talk last week that is well worth listening to.

The history of the NFL is filled with turning points where schematic innovation tips the scales.  Super Bowls have been won when the innovation is significant enough.   Single back offense of Joe Gibbs, West Coast Offense of Bill Walsh, Zone Blitzing for the Steelers.   And in 2026 it was Mike Mcdonald who schemed up a sophisticated way to bring pressure that makes it extremely difficult for a QB to throw downfield.  I personally believe Mcdonald's defensive innovation is not called in the huddle, his defensive players have to read as if they are Peyton Manning.  Seattle keeps two helmets high and all 11 defenders are on the same page.   They make their reads in situations where a downfield pass is required, they bring 6 with a defensive back or two always coming.   They way they do this is so unpredictable that it makes it nearly impossible for even a good QB like Matt Stafford to adjust.  Drake Maye certainly could not.

I've wondered how this could be countered.   At the end of the below interview, Monken reveals one very good way.  Built in laterals.  

should be fun to follow in 2026

Brown BLog Predicts: Super Bowl 60

 

If Mike Vrabel were not such a good head coach, I would be predicting a blow out in Super Bowl 60 however Vrabel is indeed a very good coach.

Still, I see Seattle winning and covering the spread.   Mike McDonald is also an excellent coach and his team is peaking at the perfect time.   Seattle's big play offense and dominant defense will be more than enough to win on Super Bowl Sunday

Brown BLog Predicts

Seattle            30

New England 20

The Brown BLog are 7-5 predicting NFL playoff games. 

Belichick CHEATED!!

 

The righteous indignation has been immediate. News leaked that Bill Belichick was not voted a first-ballot Hall of Famer, and suddenly the football world clutched its pearls. How could the greatest coach of all time be “snubbed”? 

That reaction only makes sense if you choose to remember Bill Belichick in pieces instead of as a whole.

Because Spygate was not a minor lapse. It was systemic cheating, executed with intent. The facts are not in dispute: unauthorized videotaping of opponents’ plays and signals, in direct violation of explicit league rules.

This wasn’t a toe over the line. It was a stride.

The National Football League understood that perfectly well at the time. That’s why the penalties against the New England Patriots were among the harshest ever levied on a franchise: a $500,000 fine for Belichick, a $250,000 fine of the Pats, forfeiture of their first round draft pick and public humiliation. The league did not treat Spygate as trivia. They treated it as a scandal.

But here’s the part that continues to get memory-holed.

The NFL did not come down even harder on Belichick because the league is exquisitely sensitive to negative publicity. Banishing the most successful coach of the modern era would have kept the story alive, invited discovery, and encouraged questions the league did not want asked. So the strategy was containment: punish the organization heavily, send a message, and make the problem disappear.

Which brings us to the name that almost always hovers just offstage: Ernie Adams.

Within league circles, Adams was long regarded as Belichick’s consigliere, the keeper of advantages. There are long-standing whispers about his role in pushing the Patriots’ edge-finding beyond what others dared attempt.  Many around the league believe that what was exposed was merely the visible portion of a much larger, more sophisticated system.

That belief matters.

Because Spygate validated the rumors. It confirmed, beyond doubt, that the Patriots under Belichick were willing to violate clear rules if it produced competitive advantage. Once that threshold is crossed, skepticism about everything else is rational judgment.

And this is where the Hall of Fame outrage collapses entirely.

In baseball, writers have kept Barry Bonds and Mark McGwire out of Cooperstown for alleged steroid use even though, at the time, those substances were not explicitly banned. In other words, baseball chose moral judgment over technical legality.

Football fans now argue that documented, proven cheating should simply be forgiven.

That’s incoherent.

If baseball can exclude players for violations that lived in gray areas, then it is entirely justified that Belichick be denied entry to Pro Football Hall of Fame for cheating that was real, documented, punished, and widely believed to extend further than what could be cleanly proven.

And to be clear: I’m not arguing that Belichick will never get into Canton. I’m arguing that, as far as I’m concerned, he shouldn’t.

The Hall of Fame is a historical judgment. It exists to tell future fans not just who won, but how they won. Belichick’s record includes the most consequential cheating scandal in modern NFL history and a cloud of credible suspicion that it was not an isolated act.

That demands restraint.

If voters hesitate, that is the Hall doing its job.

Belichick changed football.

He also broke it.

History is allowed to remember both.

Todd Monken is NOT a bad outcome, it's a good one

Though the Browns may have lurched uncontrollably into choosing Todd Monken as their next Head Coach, or at a minimum, they bungled the PR element of the search, the outcome of choosing Monken is not bad, it is good.

- Monken is an experienced NFL coach who specializes in offense.

- While Jim Schwartz has done a good job, replacing him as defensive coordinator will be easier than having a Schwartz led team solving the Browns profound issues on offense.

- Nathan Scheelhaase's inexperience could have easily snowballed on him especially in the Browns org which can be chaotic.

There are a lot more reasons I am happy about Todd Monken being named Browns head coach, but relative to the other candidates those are the big ones.   Monken also has many merits in the way he handles his job and how he will lead the Browns and we can dive into this in the coming months.