Analytics Applied: Mike Tomlin

I was reading an article this week about Mike Tomlin and inevitably anyone who writes about Tomlin feels the need to point out that his Steeler's teams have not done well in the playoffs in the recent past. 

A few obvious observations about Tomlin came to my mind (obvious to me at least), the primary observation is that analytics can be used to context Tomlin's career so let's have at it.  He provided 19 years of data.

- An average NFL Coach should win one Superbowl every 32 years.   Tomlin won one Super Bowl in 19 years.  GRADE:  Above average

- An average NFL Coach should play in one Superbowl every 16 years.  Tomlin played in one Super Bowl every 8.5 years.  GRADE:  Above average

- An average NFL Coach would win half the games he coaches.  Tomlin's record was 193-114-2 which equates to Tomlin winning 62.4% of the games he coached.   GRADE:  Well above average

- An average NFL Coach will have some seasons where he loses more games than he wins.  Tomlin in 19 seasons NEVER lost more games than he won.  Even Bill Belichick or Paul Brown cannot make that claim.   GRADE:   Extraordinary given his 19 seasons as a head coach.

What do the analytics tell us?  They tell us that Mike Tomlin was and is an exceptional NFL Head Coach.

If the Steelers lack of success in the playoffs indicates anything it is that they needed to raise the bar on their evaluation of talent.  I cannot be sure how deeply Tomlin was involved in evaluating talent, but the data sure does indicate that he got far more from the athletes on his team that other NFL coaches did.

When Ben Roethlisberger retired it's not on Tomlin for not having a QB teed up to move the team forward and don't expect the Steelers results to get any better in 2026 now that Tomlin is gone.  If anything it's far more likely the Steelers put up a losing season