Brown BLog Predicts: Jets

The Jets led by Trevor Siemian are not going to beat a red hot Browns team looking to clinch a playoff spot 

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns 27

Jets 13

The Brown BLog are 7-8 season to date

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 14 vs Texans

In spite of turning the ball over more than their opponents the majority of their games this season, the Browns are winning.   Why?  Because their defense has been fantastic.  

A few statistics tell the tale:

- The Browns have run 1001 offensive plays this season while their opponents have run 807.    It's simple, the more plays you run the more chances you have to score.   The Browns have run 194 more offensive plays than their opponents.  A touchdown is scored 3.6% of offensive plays in the NFL so by running 194 more plays, the Browns have negated their -7 turnover ratio.

- The Browns possess the ball an average of 33:05 minutes per game while opponents average 26:54

So what's going to happen in Houston?   Hard game to predict but one thing is clear, the Browns have to continue to run more offensive plays than their opponent to continue to win.

The Texans are excellent at home and the Browns are not very good on the road.   The Texans have a +8 turnover ratio, the Browns are -7.  Both teams have serious injuries they are battling, the Texans won't have CJ Stroud, Brian Cashman and Will Anderson.  The list of injured Browns is too long to detail but lately Joe Flacco is doing a great job of making the huge loss of Deshaun Watson less painful and the Browns depth in their defensive backfield continues to pay dividends.

One injury that pretty much everyone is blind to is Myles Garrett who injured his shoulder against the Broncos so badly that he could not so much as put his shirt on without help after the game.  Since then, if you watch closely, Garrett has not been able to use his left arm the same way.

Suddenly Garrett is getting held more.   

 - Why?   Before he hurt his left shoulder Garrett was better able to utilize his left arm to fight off the holding of opposing tackles.

Garrett is not getting many tackles

   - Why?   Imagine tackling a professional football player if your left arm is at 20% of it's full function.  

Garrett is not getting sacks

  - Why?  See above

So why is Garrett even playing?   It's simple, even with Garrett playing with his left arm at 20% or less of it's full function, Garrett's speed is disruptive, it forces opponents to double team him and football is an easier game when your opponent must double team one of your defenders.   10 vs 9 is easier than 11 vs 11, get it?

I ask myself why all of the sudden are the Browns coaches talking up Garrett in press conferences every day?   I think in part it is in the hopes that opposing coaches decide to continue doubling Garrett in spite of stats and film that show Garrett is limited by injuries.

This should be a close game but look for the Texans to limit Garrett and double team him less.  Laremy Tunsil should be able to handle Garrett one on one and the Browns will probably move Garrett to the left side where he can use his right arm to fend off holds.  Garrett will draw more attention from Houston on the left side of Cleveland's D but moving Garrett will allow Tunsil to handle an easier foe on the other side.

Case Keenum will be careful and focus on short gains every play, the Texans will highlight Devin Singletary both running and catching short passes and bust a few plays which will be enough at home for them to win this one. 

The Brown BLog Predicts

Texans             17

Browns            13

The Brown BLog are 7-7 season to date

The Brown BLog Predicts: Overcoming obstacles

The Browns this season have endured injuries beyond any sense of reason.   The entire NFL in fact has been a bloodbath of serious injuries all season long, but the Browns have had more than their share, far more.

Yet the team keeps on winning.  At some point, even the most skeptical person has to step back and tip their hat to Kevin Stefanski.   His ability to keep the team on track must be acknowledged.

The Bears are playing well and Justin Fields is the style of QB who has given the Browns trouble this season.   He can run and he can throw deep. 

Furthermore, the Browns have suffered three more major injuries this week with Ogbo, Hurst and Grant Delpit being lost.   The Browns however still have enough talent and motivation to keep overcoming these immense obstacles.

Should the Browns win the Bears game it increases their already strong odds of grabbing a playoff spot.  With Joe Flacco playing well and a squad of motivated, united athletes working a solid gameplan at home, the Browns should pull this one off.

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns             24

Bears                17

The Brown BLog are 6-7 season to date. 

Brown BLog Predicts: Injuries

This is that part of the season where if you watch closely, it is not difficult to see that most NFL players are playing banged up.  It's a brutal game and teams don't want to sit their starters if at all possible.

Injuries might be the key today vs Jacksonville.   Last week against the Rams, Myles Garrett was shut out for the first time in his career.   No sacks, no tackles, no assists, no pressures.  That after a game the previous week where Garrett could not lift his arm after the game.  Neither Garrett nor the Browns are willing to admit how serious his injury might be and they both dismissed any suggestion that his injury had anything to do with being shut out.  Teams have been double and triple teaming Garrett as long as he's been in the league but we should believe it was the LA Rams who finally shut him down.   My eyes said Garrett is playing with an injury that 99% of athletes would not play with and watching the Rams game I believe Garrett avoided opportunities to make tackles more than once.  Why?  Because he cannot use his left arm and even one hit to that arm might seriously aggravate the injury.   So the Browns are playing Garrett as a decoy in my opinion.   That proves that Garrett is tough as nails but the concern here is that his injury prevents him from being anything more than a decoy.   As a decoy Garrett can still contribute because teams double team him so the game becomes 10 Browns defenders vs 9 offensive players but if Garrett truly cannot use his left arm, and I think the film shows that he is avoiding using his left arm, Jacksonville is not stupid, they watch film and I think they will test Garrett today if only to force him to use that arm and validate if he's really hurt.  

Bottom line is that the Browns defense with Garrett at less than 50% is not a dominant defense.   I think Garrett "is" less than 50% 

On the Jacksonville side, their franchise QB Trevor Lawrence has a very bad ankle injury.  I watched that one and find it difficult to believe his ankle is sprained.   It looked like a dislocation to me.  Dislocations can happen without bones breaking or ligaments tearing, but once you dislocate any joint, the threat of it dislocating again is serious and healing can take months.  That said, dislocations often "pop back into place" and ankles can be protected by tape and braces so maybe Lawrence can play, albeit risking new dislocations but I would bet that Doug Pederson lands on resting his QB for a few weeks including today against the Browns. 

So which is worse, the Browns with Garrett playing on one arm or the Jags without Trevor Lawrence?

I am going with the Jaguars today, I think CJ Beathard is an experienced solid backup who will execute his game plan.   Unlike Kevin Stefanski, Doug Pederson knows how to win with his backup QB, the Jags will be patient and wait for the Browns to do something stupid.  The weather may be a factor too, lending a hand to whichever team is willing to win ugly.  That too causes me to lean towards the road team today. 

The Brown BLog Predicts

Jacksonville             17

Browns                    13

The Brown BLog are 6-6 season to date.

Leveraging Every Advantage

Kevin Stefanski has refused to reveal who will be the starting QB for the Browns this week against Jacksonsville.  Most pundits believe that Stefanski hopes to force the Jaguars coaching staff to prepare for both Joe Flacco and Dorian Thompson Robinson.  By diluting their opponents prep time, an advantage is created for the Browns!

One might dismiss this because it cannot be that difficult for an opponent to prepare for DTR since as a QB he basically is a less accurate version of Cody Kessler, but in fact, the Brown BLog can confirm that Coach Stefanski's strategy is working.

Our sources indicate that Doug Pederson and his staff have spent over two hours praying that Stefanski starts Dorian Thompson Robinson!   

 

Brown BLog Predicts: Odds are against winning ugly.

When I think about predicting the outcome of a given game, I always start with the thought, what if these two teams played 10 games?   If the Browns played the Rams in Los Angeles ten times today I do believe the Rams would win 6 or 7 times.  So as Lloyd Christmas might say, "you are telling me there is a chance!".  Indeed, if the Browns defense plays well which is something they've done all season, the Browns could win today if Kevin Stefanski is willing to "win ugly".  What is winning ugly?  It is something Bill Parcells and Marty Schottenheimer knew how to do.  You can tilt the odds in your favor in a game where you are apparently likely to lose, if you use the clock and leverage your teams strengths.  The Browns are in trouble due to injuries on offense, but they have a great D.   Run the damn clock and you move the odds of winning in your favor by limiting your opponents time of possession. 

The problem with that is that Paul DePodesta and Kevin Stefanski just hate winning ugly.   Don't get me wrong, Kevin Stefanski does something that most Browns Head Coaches during the rather ugly and sleezy Haslam era did not.   Stefanski has his team ready to compete almost every Sunday but he just cannot resist trying to be cute once or twice in any given game. 

As Jim Schwartz was quoted this week when asked about analytics, "football is not played in a vacuum".  So why is it that in a cold weather game, Kevin Stefanski called a double reverse with a QB who had just entered the game, PJ Walker, and another player, Pierre Strong, who also had barely a snap on offense?   Why?  Because our 80's corner bar Archie Bunker drunk, Paul DePodesta must have told him that the Broncos would never imagine that the Browns would be stupid enough to run a double reverse with two cold players (literally and figuratively).   It always works after all!   Throw a long pass with your backup QB on 4th and 1??   Sure fire Browns Touchdown!  Hooray!  

Instead, the Broncos had done their homework.  They knew damn well that the Browns are apt to do stupid things so their defenders understood to be patient against the Browns offense and make their reads.  Result?  There were not one but two Broncos ready to crush Pierre Strong on the double reserve, which Mr. Strong obviously noted, because he fumbled the pitch to him. 

End of game.

The scenario in which the Browns win today involves running the ball 60% or more and passing with veteran Joe Flacco very conservatively.  

The Browns won't do that because analytics says there is no such thing as winning ugly and that if you study the statistics enough, you will discover human beings can indeed be coached to perform like robots.   

The Brown BLog predicts

Rams        26

Brown      17

The Brown BLog are 5-6 season to date.