Brown BLog Predicts

Missing Odell

 November 1, 2020:  Browns vs Raiders

The Cleveland Browns are going to miss Odell Beckham Jr.

There is a significant group of fans and even some pundits who actually believe that the loss of Odell Beckham Jr will end up "helping" the Browns.   I have news for you folks, any player who forces opposing defenses to adapt their game planning is not going to be easily replaced.

Defenses consistently dedicate a safety to keeping an eye on Odell deep.   That transforms any given play from 11 defenders against 11 offensive players to 10 vs 9.  That is a big deal even if Odell does not make a play.

What does this mean?

- It will often be more difficult for the Browns to run the ball

- It will be easier for the Raiders to mask coverages and confuse Baker Mayfield 

There are a lot of subplots to this game:

- Two good coaches

- Jon Gruden scheming to try to contain Myles Garrett

- The similarities of the Browns & Raiders:  Strong offenses, weak defenses

The Raiders are a good team, let's not forget they are the only team to defeat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this season and they hung that loss on the Chiefs in Kansas City.

The Browns are a good team too but the story today will be the Browns needing time to adjust their approach in a post Odell world.   I think in a high scoring battle, that will be the difference. 

Brown BLog Predicts

Raiders    34

Browns    24

The Brown BLog have a record of 3-3 this season picking Browns games.

 

Brown BLog Predicts

A Must Win Game!

October 25, 2020:   Browns at Bengals    

 

Every game, every week in the NFL is a difficult game.   Some more difficult than others.

Last week's destruction by the Steelers should be taken in it's proper perspective.   A stable team, deep in talent, playing at home.   Woody Hayes used to say a good old fashioned ass kicking can be good for the soul.  It humbles us and reminds us that nothing comes easy.

This week however against Cincy is a must win game.  This is another bit of hyperbole that I normally reject however this week is truly an important game for the morale of a team that is emotionally on the brink of believing in themselves.

A win vs the Bengals builds confidence necessary to make a playoff drive.

A loss vs the Bengals translates to further pressure on Baker Mayfield and non stop speculation about his future.

No win in the NFL is easy, especially on the road, but I am counting on Kevin Stefanski to put together a game plan that pulls this one off.   Even with the injuries, the Browns are deeper and more talented than the Bengals and should be able to eek this out.

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns     31

Bengals    30

The Brown BLog are 2-3 this season prognosticating Browns games

Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday October 18 - Browns Steelers

Ribfest 2020 - Baker's ribs might be the story to this rivalry game!

 

Baker Mayfield has unquestioned grit and toughness.  It has made him who he is.   

As fans we tend to assume that once a game begins, pain killers and adrenaline help a player perform at peak level, but even a minor rib cage injury can be tough to play with.   I worry Sunday that Baker is going to be severely limited, especially after taking a few hits.

, 

The bottom line this week is that even with Baker healthy, I am convinced that the Steelers win at home on Sunday.  They are just far deeper than our Browns.

The formula for the Browns to win Sunday is to win the turnover battle AND outscore Pittsburgh.  With Baker healthy, I could be convinced of a small chance of a Cleveland win but with Baker nursing what is clearly a tough injury, I feel certain the Steelers take this one Sunday.   

No doubt, Baker will start and play but would not be surprised at some point if Keenum has to come into the game.    Regardless of who is pulling the trigger at QB, the Browns will run a lot and go to their Tight Ends more than they have at any point this season.   With Baker limited, there will be times when the team cannot move the ball and that will be the difference.   Big Ben remains one of the best and he has tons of weapons to exploit a battered Browns defense.   

This game will look a lot more like week 1 vs Baltimore - not close..

Brown BLog Predicts

Steelers   35

Brown     17

The Brown BLog are 1-3 this year predicting Browns games. 

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns vs Colts Oct 11 

TRUST?!?

Die hard Browns fans need more than 3 wins in 4 games to truly believe this Browns team might be diffferent however we have enough wins this season to prove that Kevin Stefanski is an NFL quality Head Coach and this Browns offense is very talented.

The match up vs the Colts on Sunday should be a good one.  The Colts have a defense that is amongst the best in the NFL and should give the Browns vaunted offensive line the best challenge of the season thus far.  The loss of Nick Chubb should not be dismissed nearly as quickly as many Browns followers are doing.   Chubb breaks tackles and runs harder than any back in the NFL.   Hunt is a fantastic back too but now the burden is completely on his shoulders.   The Colts are not going to give up 300 yards to the Browns on the ground, nor 200.   Far more likely that the Browns have to fight for every yard.

Watching Colts game highlights from their previous 4 games, I was impressed too by their pass coverage.  They are fast and cover well.  It is going to be a battle, my first prediction is there is no way that our Browns reach 30 points this week.

The Colts on offense depend on Phillip Rivers, who when I watch film reminds me of Eddie Harris, the sore armed pitcher in Major League.   

Stats seem to back that up:

- Rivers gets rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less 61% of the time this season and his passer rating is 106 when he does vs 82 when he holds the ball longer.  Baker on the other hand likes to hold the ball and look downfield, passing within 2.5 seconds only 49% of the time.   

I see Rivers trying to chew clock with lots and lots of underneath passes but I am going to trust that Joe Woods is ready for that and that Baker avoids turning the ball over.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns 24   Colts 16

The Brown BLog are 0-3 this season as we adapt to this new reality of a Browns team that actually wins games.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns vs Cowboys Sunday October 4

Week 4:  A TURNING POINT? 

Prognosticating Browns games used to be so easy.

Predicting the Browns to lose nearly every week was a guarantee of a winning record.

This season has been different.  I am 0-2 this season (I missed game 1, I would have certainly nailed that one).

Kevin Stefanski is a new kind of Browns coach.  He is prepared, he adjusts the teams tendencies week by week, he calls a good offensive game and does not ask his players to do too much.  In other words, Kevin Stefanski is....  an NFL quality head coach.  Hard to believe we have one in Cleveland is it not?

The Cowboys match up is a tough call.   It will certainly mark a turning point in this season should the Browns defeat the mighty Cowboys and this Dallas team is ripe to be upset as they battle injuries and turmoil

Key factors

- The Cowboys offensive line is severely banged up

- The Cowboys defense has not played well

- Jerry Jones called out Dak on an interview earlier this week, racheting up pressure on his QB.

There are people like ole Jerry who might disagree but I count Dak Prescott as one of the best QBs in the NFL.   Watch him, he consistently stays calm in the pocket, makes his reads and delivers accurate balls all over the field of play.   

Bottom line here is I can see this game going either way but I am going to stick with habit here and predict that Dak will be the difference

BL Predicts
Cowboys 27
Browns 24

 Brown BLog Predicts

  Week 3: Browns vs Redskins

  

While studying the Washington Football Teams roster this morning, it is difficult not to be impressed by the depth of experience they have on defense.   The defensive backfield in particular surprised me.  Fast and experienced players like 26 year old Strong Safety Landon Collins and 26 year old speedster Fabian Moreau at the Corner.  The Skins layer in a rookie stud like Chase Young and lots more experience on D.

The team is also coached by an experienced hand, Head Coach Ron Rivera, who knows how to build a game plan.  His strategy this season with this team is obvious:  No turnovers and let his defense dictate the game.  The Skins have recovered 3 fumbles, intercepted 3 passes and are plus 2 on turnover differential.   They lost to Arizona because they could not stop Kyler Murray.

I have news for you fellow Browns fans, Baker cannot run the ball like Kyler

The home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL so Cleveland has an advantage here but would it not just be so Cleveland Browns to lose this game.

It is going to be close, I believe the Browns will lose the battle of turnovers and lose the game.  

Why?

Because .... we are the Browns

BL Predicts

WASHINGTON   17

Browns                 16 

The BBlog are 0-1 this season on predictions

The Brown BLog Predicts:   

Browns vs Bengals Thursday Night Football

      Disaster or Alignment?

A lesson learned over the years of worshipping our Browns is not to ignore the obvious.

Earlier in the week, the Browns blundered by cutting Austin Seibert on the Monday before a big division rivalry game.   Tony Grossi was the first to point out that the timing of the cut might be ill advised and Mike Brown added credibility to Grossi's observation by immediately picking up Seibert.

Many worried about the embarrassment that might take place should Seibert play on Thursday evening.  What fans should truly be worried about is that on Tuesday and Wednesday the Bengals coaching staff was downloading nuggets of insights from Seibert relative to Browns special teams tactics.   The Bengals have for example one of the games better kick returners, Brandon Wilson, who already has a 44 yard return to his credit last Sunday.  Might an insight or two from Seibert help the Bengals set up an effective kick return Thursday evening?  

In a game of inches it is a troubling point.  All the Browns had to do was wait a few days to make the move, but my guess is cutting Seibert Monday saved a few dollars and our frugal owner certainly must have loved that.

Much ado about nothing say you?  Maybe but I guarantee Bill Belichick would never risk handing over this kind of intel to a key opponent days before a big game.  When asked about this Coach Stefanski said that Seibert being a Bengal was not "worrisome" so at least we do know that the Browns leadership is aligned.   Who knows, maybe the Browns will whip on Cincinnati and Baker Mayfield can hand the game ball to Seibert after one of his touchdown passes.

Will it have an impact, who knows but I do believe this will be a close game and I do believe the Bengals will win

Brown BLog Predicts

Bengals   24

Browns   17

2020 Pandemic vs Polemic

Browns center JC Tretter was elected President of the NFLPA this year and he recently commented that there is a "long list of hurdles" before players are going to be ready to bless getting on the field in 2020 given the current state of the pandemic.

The reaction of Twitter verse included the usual volume of thoughtless polemic about how much money football players make.  The polemic is a virtual reminder of the lack of education and intellectual laziness of too many citizens today.

Should athletes subject themselves to a higher than normal level of risk of being infected by a potentially fatal or life changing virus because they are well paid?   The key to understanding the issue is to turn down the ignorance volume and understand Covid-19.

I am in favor of steps to get our economy opened back up because we now understand that social distancing and masking up move risk levels down significantly.  Tretter reminds us of a pretty obvious point though.  Uh... football is a contact sport.

Except for defensive backs, for whom the NFL long ago mandated social distancing rules that prevent defenders getting anywhere near a receiver, most NFL players are obligated to come into physical contact with their foes.

Given the above it is difficult to imagine football being played in 2020.  However there is time left before the season and maybe one solution:  TESTING

If the NFL can test every player, frequently with a 100% reliable result that is immediate, I could imagine a scenario where practices and games can take place.   But right now, that capacity does not exist.   Test samples need to be sent by Fedex to a test center and reliable results require at least 24 hours.   Home based tests to my knowledge are neither 100% reliable nor available.

it should be very fascinating to watch this play out over the summer.

NFL owners and their commissioner are doing everything they can to make it feel like the 2020 NFL season is coming no matter what, maybe they feel like they can bully players into accepting a higher risk.  But JC Tretter is not drinking the owners Kool Aid and I for one say, "good for JC Tretter"!

We are baaaaackkk!

After a hiatus that lasted 5 years, we at The Brown bLog are back.
Suffice it to say that at the start of 2015 there were not any sources of optimism for a blog that is managed by passionate fans.

I could handle even 4 or 5 win seasons but the 4-44 streak over 3 seasons was more than I could digest & anybody could see that putting a lawyer in charge of personnel was going to lead to losses, lots and lots of losses.   And it did.

with COVID 19 changing our world, there is an odd rekindling of our passion for the Browns and even a sense of hope that the Browns might finally be moving towards a few years of stability.

Can Jimmy Haslam stick with one executive leadership team and coach for more than 2 seasons?

Does Andrew Berry have the right stuff?

I am optimistic enough about Berry & Stefanski to actually pick the blog up and starting writing again.

Only time will tell if this is the beginning of the end of the humiliation Browns fans have endured these last few years.

BL Predicts: Super Bowl XLIX Boycott

Who gives a shit who wins Super Bowl XLIX?

A bunch of cheating scum led by Bill Belichick are being rewarded yet again for their behavior.

I refuse to be a part of it.

Super Bowl XLIX is being boycotted by the Brown Log.  I won't watch one millisecond of a game that involves people whose behaviors don't match my own values.   Super Bowl XLIX is a farce.

The BL Finish the NFL season with a 10-6 regular season record & in the playoffs our prediction record was 6-4.

BL Predicts: NFL Conference Finals

The BL take a 5-3 playoff prediction record in this season's playoffs into the conference finals.
Here we go:

New England vs Indianapolis:

I continue to shake my head at the success of Bill Belichick because I remain convinced that he brazenly continues to use any advantage he can find to win, including cheating.  Occasionally during the season, an opponent will make the Pats look like easy game.   For example, early in the season Kansas City made New England look foolish beating them 41-14.   A few years ago, Rod Chudzinski took his Cleveland Browns into New England and dominated the Pats for 3 1/2 quarters.   Had it not been for a few bad ref calls the Browns would have won.

My contention is that some teams, with a bit of knowledge of how Belichick truly operates, change their play calling schemes when they match up against the Pats.   A run call is recoded to long pass and becomes an easy touchdown.   Suddenly the Pats, with knowledge that their opponent is "on to them" find themselves on equal footing and struggle all game long.

Lo and behold, Rod Chudzinski now works for the Colts.  Look for the Colts to break a few big plays today and defeat evil.

BL Predicts:

Colts       24
Pats         21


Green Bay vs Seattle:

If Aaron Rodgers, who is the best QB in the NFL, were not nursing a serious calf injury I would be more conflicted about this choice.  However Rodgers is seriously hurt and the Seahawks are at home with a healthy Super Bowl caliber QB in Russell Wilson.  Seattle also has the nastiest defense in the NFL and as we all know, defense wins championships even in the pass happy NFL.

It should not even be close today:

BL Predicts:

Seattle          27
Green Bay   17

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs - Round 2

In week 1 thanks to the referees in Dallas the BL went 2-2, missing as we do every year on the Bengals

Week 2 of the NFL playoffs is all about the home field advantage.   The Brown Log will courageously predict that the home team will sweep the playoffs in Round 2.

BL Predicts:

Baltimore loses to New England by 14
Carolina loses to Seattle by 17
Dallas loses to Green Bay by 10
Indianapolis loses to Denver by 3

BL Predicts: Round 1 NFL Playoffs

After closing the year out 10-6 predicting Browns games, the Brown Log continue their yearly tradition of post season predictions.

This season's round 1 presents the most difficult set of games to predict that I can ever recall, so here goes:

Arizona vs Carolina:
Even though the Panthers finished 7-8 & 1, it must be noted that Arizona is down to their 3rd string QB, Ryan Lindley, whose play thus far would indicate that he's the kind of QB the Cleveland Browns would likely employ.  In other words, he's just awful.   I always give heavy consideration to the fact that the home field advantage is huge in the NFL.  The home team wins 58% of the time in the National Football League.

Finally, Cam Newton has endured a season of injuries that he has courageously played through and he is emerging both physically but more important, as a leader.   Look for a close game but I think Cam can make a few big plays against the incredible Arizona D and help his team advance

BL Predicts:  Carolina ends Arizona's wonderful season
Carolina    17
Arizona     12

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh
The loss of Le'veon Bell is big for the Steelers but I think they have more than enough guns remaining to handle the slumping Ravens at home.

BL Predicts:   Steelers handle Ravens
Pittsburgh   26
Baltimore    17

Cincinnati vs Indianapolis
I really like this Bengals team and every year in round 1, some home team is astounded by a visitor.  The Bengals D is loaded with speed and big play talent.   Jeremy Hill is a force at running back, capable of dominating and changing a game.  

What makes Bengal's fans nervous is that Andy Dalton has never played well in big games but here's an insight that most pundits haven't connected the dots on.  In the view of the Brown Log, it's not that Dalton can't play well in big games, his problem is that he's not a good QB in bad weather.  Paradoxically, the home field is a disadvantage for Dalton in the Bengals open air field, so it's a blessing in disguise to play in the Colts dome stadium.

Look for Hill to run for over 100 yards, Dalton to avoid big mistakes and Luck to make a few critical mistakes.

BL Predicts:  Bengals in an upset
Cincinnati     30
Colts             24


Detroit vs Dallas
Finally the game I've agonized most over.   I really want to pick Detroit here because I love the big play talent of Calvin Johnson but in the end, this seems to be a year of destiny for Tony Romo.   Look for the Dallas Cowboys dominant offensive line to continue to make big holes for DeMarcus Murray and Tony Romo to spring the occasional big play.

BL Predicts:  Cowboys steamroll the Lions
Dallas            35
Detroit           24