Brown BLog Predicts: Week 4 - Browns vs Raiders

 

Since the Paul DePodesta era began, the Browns have adopted an optimist view of player evaluation that assumes an athlete the Browns deem NFL worthy, will play at an NFL level of proficiency, regardless of what the Browns might see in practice.  In the case of proven starters, the Browns like many NFL teams, chose to avoid putting an athlete at risk of harm in the pre season.  In the case of young players, the Browns philosophy is that playing time is a key to player development and it's fair to say that if the Browns believe in an athlete they will give him playing time regardless of whether he has earned it.  Just ask Anthony Schwartz.

Thus far this season, it's the teams like Kansas City and Pittsburgh that are going well because they require players to earn their playing time by proving in the pre season they are still NFL quality.  This season Dawand Jones is obviously playing on a right knee that is limited.   The Browns learned this only when Deshaun Watson started getting hit.   They are also learning that Deshaun Watson's shoulder might well be healed but he has not regained 100% of his previous capacity.   Surgery techniques are so advanced today that athletes are often able to retain 100% of their pre injury strength, quickness and durability.   But Deshaun Watson's injury was not a common one yet the Browns seem to believe that if Watson can throw the ball 50 yards downfield he must be 100% but let's allow ourselves to examine the possibility that Watson has lost something.   In a game where a split second can be the difference between winning and losing, sorry to say, so far the evidence points to the possibility that Deshaun has lost that split second.  

The Raiders are hurting with Maxx Crosby probably out and Davonte Adams out for sure, but the Browns are short David Njoku and Myles Garrett is not exactly 100%.    But the biggest factor has to be Deshaun Watson.   He might be healthy but his shoulder is 80% to 90% of what it once was and the worry here is that is now his ceiling.   If so, that is not good enough and this promises to be a very long season for the Browns

The Brown BLog Predict

Raiders            24

Browns            16

The Brown BLog are 1-2 season to date 

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 3 Browns vs. Giants

 

This is a game the Browns should win but as the pundits like to say on any given Sunday anything can happen in the NFL.   However, I think the Browns should and will win.

Look for Deshaun Watson to have a big game on Sunday.   His toughness against Dallas and his resilience against Jacksonville has been impressive.   It feels like Deshaun is going to pass for at least 250 yards and a couple touchdowns and the Browns roll.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns   31

Giants     17

The Brown BLog are 1-1 predicting Browns games this season. 

Brown BLog Predicts: Game 2 on the Road in Jacksonville

 

The Brown BLog correctly predicted the shit show against the Cowboys in the Season Opener, sorry to say that I saw it coming.  

This week vs Jacksonville is a bit harder to call, but here we go.  

I see three factors lining up that tip the prediction.   That said, there is no way the Browns are going to play nearly as bad against Jacksonville but in any case here are the issues with tomorrow's game:

• The home team wins about 56% of the time in the NFL, it's harder to win on the road
• To increase their odds of beating Jacksonville, the Browns need to lean on their defense and the offense needs to play complimentary ball, supporting their defense by eating clock and playing conservatively on offense.   Paul DePodesta does not believe in winning ugly and since he runs strategy, the Browns never play football that way.  It's all about 20 yard gains, even if your talent is not capable of achieving those big gains on a regular basis.
• Kevin Stefanski is not calling the game in a way that fits exactly what Ken Dorsey is trying to do, and this is not helping our $230,000,000 QB play freely.

I see a Field Goal being the difference in this game.  Specifically I see a Field Goal that the Browns don't try to kick being the difference.   At some point the Browns will have a 4th and 1 inside the Jacksonville 40 and Paul DePodesta's team will speak into Offensive Coordinator Kevin Stefanski's headset to demand the Browns go for it.   Result will be predictable.   Jacksonville's ball.

Brown Blog Predicts

Jacksonville 21

Browns        20

The Brown BLog are 1-0 this season.

Dear Deshaun

 Dear Deshaun,

I hope this letter finds you well—or at least as well as someone can be under the immense pressure of nationwide scrutiny and public outrage. But fear not! I’ve cracked the code for you, and it’s not only simple, it’s tremendously successful. The answer, my friend, is right in front of you: Donald Trump.

Yes, Donald J. Trump—the man who rose from the ashes of controversy to lead a nation—has created the blueprint for turning scandal into success, and I believe you, Deshaun, can do the same. Let me walk you through how to “Make Deshaun Great Again.”

Just like Trump handled his minor problems with accusations of misconduct, never admit to anything—ever.  You are doing well here, keep it up!  Even if there are 26 allegations against you, or 26,000, it’s all part of a politically motivated hoax. Say it loud, say it proud: "Fake news!"

Trump didn’t back down when tapes surfaced of him saying incriminating things. He called it “locker room talk.” You, too, can use this powerful tool. Next time someone brings up the allegations, brush it off: "It’s just post-massage banter." Easy. The key is to never apologize. Apologies are for losers.

The more you attack, the more your fans will rally around you. Remember, when Trump was faced with accusations, did he apologize? No! He went after the women, calling them liars, saying they were out to get money or fame. You should do the same. Paint your accusers as opportunists, part of some grand conspiracy to take down an NFL superstar. Say they're just jealous of your success.

Bonus points: SUE THEM. Trump is the king of lawsuits. Every accusation? Counter it with a lawsuit for defamation. Flood the courts with legal action. It’ll tie everything up in knots and make it seem like you’re the real victim here.

Here’s where you can truly shine. Twitter, Instagram, Threads—it’s all your playground. Trump mastered social media by going on the offensive, controlling the narrative, and never letting anyone else speak louder than him.

You need to be active—tweet constantly. Every day, remind your followers that you are a fighter. Post workout videos. Show how dedicated you are to football and how you’ve “overcome adversity.” Sprinkle in posts about charity work, thanking God, and, of course, retweeting anyone who supports you, no matter how fringe. The goal is to flood the space with your voice so that your version of events is the only one people hear.

When things get too hot, Trump goes on TV. You should too. Sit down with the friendliest possible media outlet (think Fox Sports or someone who will ask questions about your “grit” and how you’re “dealing with adversity”).

Look for an opportunity to use TV appearances to pivot the narrative. If asked about the allegations, use the classic Trump line: "These are just distractions from the important work I’m doing." Bring it back to football, bring it back to your dedication. Remind people that you’re just here to win games.

But, when the media attacks you, attack back! Claim bias. Trump has his "fake news" war. You can have your "NFL media vendetta" campaign. Say they’re trying to tear down successful Black men or spin it as part of the larger war against athletes. This will not only flip the blame but also galvanize your base of supporters.

Trump’s key to maintaining dominance over a scandal is making even bigger, bolder statements that grab headlines. You need to take this same approach. For instance, when people bring up the allegations, respond with a wild, unrelated claim. Announce that you’re planning to start a massage therapy charity to help “fix the broken system.” It doesn’t have to make sense, it just has to divert attention.

Another winning suggestion, endorse Donald Trump for President and say you're considering running for political office after football. A bold move like that ensures that your NFL career becomes secondary to the massive "national conversation" about Deshaun Watson, the leader and it will motivate Trump's base to support you. You’re no longer just an athlete—now, you’re a potential future governor and President. Instant rebrand!

Trump’s most brilliant strategy? Cultivate an unshakable base.  He keeps his core supporters happy with constant praise and by telling them they’re smarter than everyone else. Do the same with your fans. Host exclusive events, give them special shout-outs, call them "the real MVPs." These fans will defend you at all costs, especially if they feel personally connected to you.

Finally, remember: It’s not about what happened, it’s about what you SAY happened. Trump didn’t let reality get in the way of his rise to power, and you shouldn’t either. With the right approach, Deshaun, you won’t just recover—you’ll thrive.  Not only that but after your NFL days are over, you will have opened the door to a very promising career in American Politics!

Yours respectfully, 

A fan

Brown BLog Predicts: Season Opener - Browns vs Cowboys

This Sunday is a match up of last season's best offense vs the best defense:

• Cowboys scored 29.9 points per game
• Browns led the NFL in shutting down opponents offense on Third Down

So who is going to win?

The Cowboys were consistent on offense last season, they scored more than 30 points in 11 of 17 games.   The Browns however were not quite as consistent on Defense.   When the Browns faced a great QB their defense had holes that could be exploited and veteran QB's were able to create.  Dak Prescott is a Franchise QB and Dallas will find ways to take advantage of Cleveland's aggressive defensive approach. 

Another key:  Can Dallas D keep Cleveland out of the end zone?  

Cleveland was average in the red zone last season with 57% of their red zone opportunities resulting in a TD.    Can the addition of Ken Dorsey improve that?   Well, it has to be hard for Dorsey to improve what he does not control.  Kevin Stefanski is calling the plays not Dorsey.   I see a disconnect there.  Combine that with the fact that the Cleveland offense has not had much of an opportunity in the Training Camp to practice together, and I think the Browns are going to continue to struggle in the red zone. 

Brown BLog Predicts:  Red Zone Efficiency leads to a big Dallas win

Dallas    34

Browns  23

Brown BLog Predicts: AFC North 2024

The toughest division in the NFL promises to be exciting and competitive again in 2024.

Here are my predictions for each team:

First Place:  Baltimore Ravens  12-5

- The Ravens are the best coached and most talented team in the AFC North

- Lamar Jackson will get more freedom to improvise at the line of scrimmage

- The Ravens new Offensive Linemen and draft picks will shine

Second Place:  Cincinnati Bengals 10-7

- The Bengals have Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase.

- The Bengals have one of the easiest schedules in the entire NFL

- The Bengals are one of the youngest teams in the NFL which is a negative and their youth will cost them some games.

Third Place:  Pittsburgh Steelers  9-8

- The Steelers have Mike Tomlin

- Russell Wilson still has some gas in the tank

Last Place:  Cleveland Browns  7-10

- One of the toughest schedules in the NFL

- It does not look to me like Kevin Stefanski and Ken Dorsey are on the same page.  

- Deshaun Watson's shoulder is a huge unknown.

 

Stupid is as Stupid Does: The Tyler Huntley Saga

Sometimes the Cleveland Browns really outdo themselves. The Tyler Huntley Saga is a great example. The Browns signed Huntley in the off season because they were concerned about DTR's hip. Ok, seems reasonable. Huntley is an NFL QB and he fits what the Browns are trying to do and DTR had a very serious injury not to mention the fact that DTR is not as physically gifted as Huntley.  

When DTR played last year, he played like a version of Cody Kessler with a little bit more speed.  But Dorian Thompson-Robinson has one major factor going for him. He was drafted by the Browns and the Browns hate cutting draft picks.  The only draft pick the Browns have ever cut after less than 2 years is Siaki Ika, who could not stay on his feet even when not being blocked by anybody.   

This preseason, happily DTR got past his hip issue, looked healthy in the preseason and even played well against the vanilla defenses he faced.   But does he belong in the NFL?   

 Thus began the stupidity: 

 - The Browns chose DTR over Huntley and I doubt there is another team in the NFL that would make that choice.  Don't get me wrong, I like DTR and I think he would make an excellent CFL QB but he's nowhere near as good as Tyler Huntley.

 - The Browns then leaked that they were considering trading DTR and Jameis Winston. Why? To incentivize the many NFL teams eager to give up a draft pick for Tyler Huntley. Of course no NFL team was willing to trade a 5 or a 6 for Tyler Huntley. Why? Because they knew the Browns were going to cut him. 

 - Finally, today our rival, the Baltimore Ravens, sign Tyler Huntley. 

 I find it comical that Kevin Stefanski won't tell the local press ANYTHING about ANYTHING because sharing information with the press gives potential rivals information that they can use to beat the Browns. But now, a QB who spent the last 5 months as a member of the Cleveland Browns has gone back to Baltimore where he certainly will be debriefed about every single fact he has digested as a member of the Browns. 

 Stupid is as stupid does.

Stefanski and Dorsey: An Arranged Marriage

If you believe the Browns PR narrative, it was Kevin Stefanski who proactively decided to fire his close collaborator Alex Van Pelt in order to lift his Browns to new heights and unleash the strengths of Deshaun Watson. Many of us however believe that the marriage of Kevin Stefanski and Ken Dorsey was more the product of an edict from Jimmy Haslam and Paul DePodesta. A decision from the top, forced on Kevin Stefanki, in an effort to increase the Browns potential to create explosive plays. An arranged marriage. It is too early to draw conclusions however at this point it is concerning to watch the lack of rapport between Kevin Stefanski and Ken Dorsey and while it is still preseason, relative to other NFL teams this preseason, the Browns offense is out of sync.

Browns History: Linebacker Gerald Irons

Gerald Irons, a name that resonates with fans of hard-hitting, intelligent football, was more than just a linebacker during his time in the NFL—he was a pioneer. Though his professional journey began with the Oakland Raiders, it was his time with the Cleveland Browns from 1976 to 1979 that truly cemented his legacy as one of the game’s transformative figures.

Standing at 6'2" and weighing around 230 pounds, Irons was a physical specimen for his time, bringing a combination of height, speed, and strength that allowed him to excel in multiple facets of the game. At a time when linebackers were primarily tasked with stopping the run, Irons’ athleticism made him one of the first linebackers capable of defending against the run, rushing the passer, and dropping back into pass coverage with equal proficiency.

His unique skill set set the stage for the evolution of the linebacker position. No longer would a linebacker be confined to the trenches, solely focused on run-stopping duties. Instead, Irons helped pave the way for the modern, versatile linebacker—a player who must be able to cover tight ends and running backs in the passing game while also being able to disrupt the quarterback and plug gaps in the running game.

During his time with the Browns, Irons made a significant impact on the field. Though statistics from that era are not as comprehensive as today’s, Irons’ contributions can be seen in his interception, sack, and tackle numbers. He recorded 6 interceptions and 6 sacks in his four seasons with Cleveland, showcasing his ability to read the quarterback, make plays in coverage, and disrupt the passing game—uncommon for linebackers of his time.

Additionally, Irons was known for his tackling ability, consistently finishing near the top of the team’s leaderboard in tackles each season. His combination of size and speed allowed him to cover large areas of the field, making him a constant threat to opposing offenses. His ability to rush the passer, evidenced by his sack totals, often forced hurried throws and created turnovers.

Gerald Irons’ influence on the linebacker position cannot be understated. His ability to play all aspects of the linebacker role at a high level made him a valuable asset to the Browns and a nightmare for opposing offenses. His legacy is evident in today’s NFL, where linebackers are expected to be multi-dimensional, capable of excelling in both run support and pass coverage.

Irons’ time with the Browns may not have garnered the same headlines as some of his contemporaries, but his impact on the game was profound. He was a linebacker ahead of his time, whose versatility and athleticism helped redefine what it meant to play the position. His contributions to the Cleveland Browns and the NFL as a whole remain a testament to his skill, intelligence, and pioneering spirit on the football field.

Data Insufficiency - The Problem with Paul DePodesta's Browns Analytics

Over the past few years every time the Browns get "cute" when calling a play I think to myself, "Why in God's name do the Browns give Paul DePodesta so much influence?"   

That stated, I do believe that the strategy of questioning conventional wisdom has paid dividends for the Browns if only in their selection of Andrew Berry as General Manager.  Having a "team first" leader at the top of any organization who can put his ego to the side and use a facts based approach that questions conventional wisdom when necessary is a huge plus.  Andrew Berry is all of those things and much more. 

It does appear that Browns are moving past the era where every single bit of conventional NFL wisdom is second guessed and that's a good thing too.  Bringing your second string quarterback into the game to replace your $230,000,000 quarterback on 4th down and less than 1 yard vs a Division Rival and then throwing a 40 yard incomplete pass to the end zone may well challenge conventional wisdom but sometimes conventional wisdom is actually wise. 

Here’s a comparison of the use of analytics in professional baseball versus professional football, focusing on the significance and relevance of measurable variables:

Baseball Analytics

1. Nature of the Game:

   - Discrete Events: Baseball is composed of a series of discrete events (pitches, at-bats, fielding plays), which are easier to isolate and analyze.

   - Large Sample Size: Each player has many opportunities (e.g., hundreds of at-bats or innings pitched) to generate data, leading to robust statistical analysis.

2. Measurable Variables:

   - Pitching Metrics: ERA, WHIP, strikeout rates, and pitch velocities.

   - Hitting Metrics: Batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, exit velocity, and launch angle.

   - Fielding Metrics: Defensive runs saved (DRS), ultimate zone rating (UZR), and fielding percentage.

3. Impact of Analytics:

   - Player Evaluation: Sabermetrics have revolutionized how players are valued (e.g., Moneyball).

   - In-Game Decisions: Data-driven decisions on shifts, pitch selection, and batting order.

   - Long-Term Strategy: Teams use analytics for draft strategy, player development, and contract negotiations.

Football Analytics

1. Nature of the Game:

   - Complex Interactions: Football involves complex interactions among 22 players on the field, making it harder to isolate individual contributions.

   - Smaller Sample Size: Fewer games and plays per season result in a smaller data set for analysis.

2. Measurable Variables:

   - Player Metrics: Yardage (passing, rushing, receiving), touchdowns, and interceptions.

   - Team Metrics: Points scored, points allowed, and time of possession.

   - Advanced Metrics: Expected points added (EPA), win probability, and player tracking data (e.g., Next Gen Stats).

3. Impact of Analytics:

   - Player Evaluation: Combines traditional scouting with data on player efficiency and situational performance.

   - In-Game Decisions: Fourth-down decision-making, play-calling tendencies, and clock management.

   - Long-Term Strategy: Roster construction, injury prevention, and game planning.

Conclusion

Baseball:

- Statistical Significance and Relevance: Due to the discrete nature of events and the large sample size, baseball analytics yield statistically significant and relevant insights. These metrics can be highly predictive of future performance and directly influence game outcomes and player evaluation.

  

Football:

- Data Insufficiency: The complex interactions on the field, smaller sample sizes, and greater variability make it more challenging to derive statistically significant and actionable insights. While analytics are useful for strategic planning and situational decisions, they are less deterministic compared to baseball.

In summary, while analytics play a critical role in both sports, the measurable variables in baseball are more statistically significant and relevant due to the nature of the game, leading to clearer and more direct applications. In contrast, football's complexity and variability mean that while data can inform strategy, it often requires a more nuanced and context-dependent approach.

Winning Head Coaches

 Here is a list of Cleveland Browns head coaches who have a lifetime winning percentage greater than .500:

1. Paul Brown (1946–1962)

   - Regular season: 111-44-5 (.714)

   - Playoffs: 9-5 (.643)

2. Blanton Collier (1963–1970)

   - Regular season: 76-34-2 (.688)

   - Playoffs: 3-4 (.429)

3. Nick Skorich (1971–1974)

   - Regular season: 30-24-2 (.556)

   - Playoffs: 0-2 (.000)

4. Marty Schottenheimer (1984–1988)

   - Regular season: 44-27 (.620)

   - Playoffs: 2-4 (.333)

5. Kevin Stefanski (2020–present)

   - Regular season: 37-31 (.544)

   - Playoffs: 1-2 (.333)

2024: It is all about Deshaun

Every season when I predict where the Cleveland Browns will finish in the ultra tough AFC North Division, I ask myself one question.

What if the GM's of the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers called and each of them offered the following trade?   Their entire roster for the complete roster of the Cleveland Browns.

If that were to happen tomorrow the only team I would say no to is the Pittsburgh Steelers.   Why?  Because in the NFL it is all about the QB.

If Deshaun Watson returns to the status he once enjoyed as a Top 5 QB the answer "no" would be easy.  

So in 2024, Browns fans, it is all about Deshaun.   If his shoulder is sound and the scheme fits his talent, the Browns are going to set the world on fire.

If not, third place is our best case scenario, albeit in the AFC North that still might mean a playoff appearance. 

NFL Football Hall of Fame - Is the Election Process Broken?

I am primarily a Browns fan but since we reside in the best division in the NFL, by far, I have taken to following the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals almost as closely as I follow our Browns.

One of my absolute pet peeves is the fact that Browns great Clay Matthews is not in the Hall of Fame.  It's an injustice to his amazing career.   

It is hard to not feel some real affection for the Bengals because in a sense, were it not for Art Modell's poor judgement, Paul Brown would have guided the Browns instead of forming the expansion Bengals and today Mike Brown would most likely be running the Browns.  

In the process of following the Bengals I have identified 3 more overwhelmingly deserving players who should be in Canton:  Ken Anderson, Tim Krumrie and Corey Dillon.   When you examine the numbers, there is an overwhelming case for each of these athletes.  

Clay Matthews Jr.

- Teams: Cleveland Browns (1978-1993), Atlanta Falcons (1994-1996)

- Career Highlights:

  - Played 19 seasons in the NFL, 16 of which were with the Cleveland Browns.

  - Four-time Pro Bowler (1985, 1987, 1988, 1989).

  - Recorded 1,561 tackles, 69.5 sacks, and 16 interceptions in his career.

  - Known for his durability and consistency, playing in 278 games, which is the 17th most in NFL history.

Hall of Fame Case:

  - Matthews' longevity and productivity are hallmarks of his career. His 1,561 tackles are among the highest ever recorded.

  - His four Pro Bowl selections highlight his peak performance years.

  - Matthews was a key player in the Browns' defensive success during the 1980s, leading to multiple playoff appearances.

  - Few linebackers have demonstrated the combination of durability, consistency, and high-level play over such an extended period.

Ken Anderson

Team: Cincinnati Bengals (1971-1986)

Career Highlights:

  - NFL MVP (1981)

  - Four-time Pro Bowler (1975, 1976, 1981, 1982)

  - NFL Offensive Player of the Year (1981)

  - Led the Bengals to Super Bowl XVI

  - Led the NFL in passer rating four times (1974, 1975, 1981, 1982)

  - Passed for 32,838 yards and 197 touchdowns with a passer rating of 81.9

Hall of Fame Case:

  - Anderson was one of the most accurate and efficient passers of his era.

  - His 1981 MVP season was one of the best by a quarterback in the early 1980s, leading the Bengals to their first Super Bowl appearance.

  - Anderson's career passer rating was among the best of his time, and his completion percentage ranks high historically.

  - His innovation in the short passing game helped pave the way for modern passing offenses.

Corey Dillon

Teams: Cincinnati Bengals (1997-2003), New England Patriots (2004-2006)

Career Highlights:

  - Four-time Pro Bowler (1999, 2000, 2001, 2004)

  - Super Bowl Champion (XXXIX)

  - Set the then-NFL single-game rushing record with 278 yards (2000)

  - Rushed for 11,241 yards and 82 touchdowns in his career

Hall of Fame Case:

  - Dillon's career rushing yards place him in the top 20 all-time.

  - His single-game rushing record stood for six years and remains one of the top performances in NFL history.

  - Dillon was a key player in the Patriots' 2004 Super Bowl run, providing balance to their offense.

  - His consistency and ability to perform at a high level on both struggling and successful teams showcase his talent and versatility.

Tim Krumrie

Team: Cincinnati Bengals (1983-1994)

Career Highlights:

  - Two-time Pro Bowler (1987, 1988)

  - Played in Super Bowl XXIII

  - Recorded 34 sacks and 13 fumble recoveries

  - Known for his toughness

Hall of Fame Case:

  - Krumrie was a dominant force in the middle of the Bengals' defensive line for over a decade.

  - His toughness and durability, epitomized by his quick return from a devastating leg injury, made him a respected figure in the NFL.

  - Krumrie's leadership and performance were crucial in the Bengals' successful seasons in the late 1980s.

  - Krumrie is the only defensive lineman with at least 600 combined tackles during the 1980s