Brown BLog Predicts: Season Opener - Browns vs Cowboys

This Sunday is a match up of last season's best offense vs the best defense:

• Cowboys scored 29.9 points per game
• Browns led the NFL in shutting down opponents offense on Third Down

So who is going to win?

The Cowboys were consistent on offense last season, they scored more than 30 points in 11 of 17 games.   The Browns however were not quite as consistent on Defense.   When the Browns faced a great QB their defense had holes that could be exploited and veteran QB's were able to create.  Dak Prescott is a Franchise QB and Dallas will find ways to take advantage of Cleveland's aggressive defensive approach. 

Another key:  Can Dallas D keep Cleveland out of the end zone?  

Cleveland was average in the red zone last season with 57% of their red zone opportunities resulting in a TD.    Can the addition of Ken Dorsey improve that?   Well, it has to be hard for Dorsey to improve what he does not control.  Kevin Stefanski is calling the plays not Dorsey.   I see a disconnect there.  Combine that with the fact that the Cleveland offense has not had much of an opportunity in the Training Camp to practice together, and I think the Browns are going to continue to struggle in the red zone. 

Brown BLog Predicts:  Red Zone Efficiency leads to a big Dallas win

Dallas    34

Browns  23

Brown BLog Predicts: AFC North 2024

The toughest division in the NFL promises to be exciting and competitive again in 2024.

Here are my predictions for each team:

First Place:  Baltimore Ravens  12-5

- The Ravens are the best coached and most talented team in the AFC North

- Lamar Jackson will get more freedom to improvise at the line of scrimmage

- The Ravens new Offensive Linemen and draft picks will shine

Second Place:  Cincinnati Bengals 10-7

- The Bengals have Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase.

- The Bengals have one of the easiest schedules in the entire NFL

- The Bengals are one of the youngest teams in the NFL which is a negative and their youth will cost them some games.

Third Place:  Pittsburgh Steelers  9-8

- The Steelers have Mike Tomlin

- Russell Wilson still has some gas in the tank

Last Place:  Cleveland Browns  7-10

- One of the toughest schedules in the NFL

- It does not look to me like Kevin Stefanski and Ken Dorsey are on the same page.  

- Deshaun Watson's shoulder is a huge unknown.

 

Stupid is as Stupid Does: The Tyler Huntley Saga

Sometimes the Cleveland Browns really outdo themselves. The Tyler Huntley Saga is a great example. The Browns signed Huntley in the off season because they were concerned about DTR's hip. Ok, seems reasonable. Huntley is an NFL QB and he fits what the Browns are trying to do and DTR had a very serious injury not to mention the fact that DTR is not as physically gifted as Huntley.  

When DTR played last year, he played like a version of Cody Kessler with a little bit more speed.  But Dorian Thompson-Robinson has one major factor going for him. He was drafted by the Browns and the Browns hate cutting draft picks.  The only draft pick the Browns have ever cut after less than 2 years is Siaki Ika, who could not stay on his feet even when not being blocked by anybody.   

This preseason, happily DTR got past his hip issue, looked healthy in the preseason and even played well against the vanilla defenses he faced.   But does he belong in the NFL?   

 Thus began the stupidity: 

 - The Browns chose DTR over Huntley and I doubt there is another team in the NFL that would make that choice.  Don't get me wrong, I like DTR and I think he would make an excellent CFL QB but he's nowhere near as good as Tyler Huntley.

 - The Browns then leaked that they were considering trading DTR and Jameis Winston. Why? To incentivize the many NFL teams eager to give up a draft pick for Tyler Huntley. Of course no NFL team was willing to trade a 5 or a 6 for Tyler Huntley. Why? Because they knew the Browns were going to cut him. 

 - Finally, today our rival, the Baltimore Ravens, sign Tyler Huntley. 

 I find it comical that Kevin Stefanski won't tell the local press ANYTHING about ANYTHING because sharing information with the press gives potential rivals information that they can use to beat the Browns. But now, a QB who spent the last 5 months as a member of the Cleveland Browns has gone back to Baltimore where he certainly will be debriefed about every single fact he has digested as a member of the Browns. 

 Stupid is as stupid does.

Stefanski and Dorsey: An Arranged Marriage

If you believe the Browns PR narrative, it was Kevin Stefanski who proactively decided to fire his close collaborator Alex Van Pelt in order to lift his Browns to new heights and unleash the strengths of Deshaun Watson. Many of us however believe that the marriage of Kevin Stefanski and Ken Dorsey was more the product of an edict from Jimmy Haslam and Paul DePodesta. A decision from the top, forced on Kevin Stefanki, in an effort to increase the Browns potential to create explosive plays. An arranged marriage. It is too early to draw conclusions however at this point it is concerning to watch the lack of rapport between Kevin Stefanski and Ken Dorsey and while it is still preseason, relative to other NFL teams this preseason, the Browns offense is out of sync.

Browns History: Linebacker Gerald Irons

Gerald Irons, a name that resonates with fans of hard-hitting, intelligent football, was more than just a linebacker during his time in the NFL—he was a pioneer. Though his professional journey began with the Oakland Raiders, it was his time with the Cleveland Browns from 1976 to 1979 that truly cemented his legacy as one of the game’s transformative figures.

Standing at 6'2" and weighing around 230 pounds, Irons was a physical specimen for his time, bringing a combination of height, speed, and strength that allowed him to excel in multiple facets of the game. At a time when linebackers were primarily tasked with stopping the run, Irons’ athleticism made him one of the first linebackers capable of defending against the run, rushing the passer, and dropping back into pass coverage with equal proficiency.

His unique skill set set the stage for the evolution of the linebacker position. No longer would a linebacker be confined to the trenches, solely focused on run-stopping duties. Instead, Irons helped pave the way for the modern, versatile linebacker—a player who must be able to cover tight ends and running backs in the passing game while also being able to disrupt the quarterback and plug gaps in the running game.

During his time with the Browns, Irons made a significant impact on the field. Though statistics from that era are not as comprehensive as today’s, Irons’ contributions can be seen in his interception, sack, and tackle numbers. He recorded 6 interceptions and 6 sacks in his four seasons with Cleveland, showcasing his ability to read the quarterback, make plays in coverage, and disrupt the passing game—uncommon for linebackers of his time.

Additionally, Irons was known for his tackling ability, consistently finishing near the top of the team’s leaderboard in tackles each season. His combination of size and speed allowed him to cover large areas of the field, making him a constant threat to opposing offenses. His ability to rush the passer, evidenced by his sack totals, often forced hurried throws and created turnovers.

Gerald Irons’ influence on the linebacker position cannot be understated. His ability to play all aspects of the linebacker role at a high level made him a valuable asset to the Browns and a nightmare for opposing offenses. His legacy is evident in today’s NFL, where linebackers are expected to be multi-dimensional, capable of excelling in both run support and pass coverage.

Irons’ time with the Browns may not have garnered the same headlines as some of his contemporaries, but his impact on the game was profound. He was a linebacker ahead of his time, whose versatility and athleticism helped redefine what it meant to play the position. His contributions to the Cleveland Browns and the NFL as a whole remain a testament to his skill, intelligence, and pioneering spirit on the football field.

Data Insufficiency - The Problem with Paul DePodesta's Browns Analytics

Over the past few years every time the Browns get "cute" when calling a play I think to myself, "Why in God's name do the Browns give Paul DePodesta so much influence?"   

That stated, I do believe that the strategy of questioning conventional wisdom has paid dividends for the Browns if only in their selection of Andrew Berry as General Manager.  Having a "team first" leader at the top of any organization who can put his ego to the side and use a facts based approach that questions conventional wisdom when necessary is a huge plus.  Andrew Berry is all of those things and much more. 

It does appear that Browns are moving past the era where every single bit of conventional NFL wisdom is second guessed and that's a good thing too.  Bringing your second string quarterback into the game to replace your $230,000,000 quarterback on 4th down and less than 1 yard vs a Division Rival and then throwing a 40 yard incomplete pass to the end zone may well challenge conventional wisdom but sometimes conventional wisdom is actually wise. 

Here’s a comparison of the use of analytics in professional baseball versus professional football, focusing on the significance and relevance of measurable variables:

Baseball Analytics

1. Nature of the Game:

   - Discrete Events: Baseball is composed of a series of discrete events (pitches, at-bats, fielding plays), which are easier to isolate and analyze.

   - Large Sample Size: Each player has many opportunities (e.g., hundreds of at-bats or innings pitched) to generate data, leading to robust statistical analysis.

2. Measurable Variables:

   - Pitching Metrics: ERA, WHIP, strikeout rates, and pitch velocities.

   - Hitting Metrics: Batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, exit velocity, and launch angle.

   - Fielding Metrics: Defensive runs saved (DRS), ultimate zone rating (UZR), and fielding percentage.

3. Impact of Analytics:

   - Player Evaluation: Sabermetrics have revolutionized how players are valued (e.g., Moneyball).

   - In-Game Decisions: Data-driven decisions on shifts, pitch selection, and batting order.

   - Long-Term Strategy: Teams use analytics for draft strategy, player development, and contract negotiations.

Football Analytics

1. Nature of the Game:

   - Complex Interactions: Football involves complex interactions among 22 players on the field, making it harder to isolate individual contributions.

   - Smaller Sample Size: Fewer games and plays per season result in a smaller data set for analysis.

2. Measurable Variables:

   - Player Metrics: Yardage (passing, rushing, receiving), touchdowns, and interceptions.

   - Team Metrics: Points scored, points allowed, and time of possession.

   - Advanced Metrics: Expected points added (EPA), win probability, and player tracking data (e.g., Next Gen Stats).

3. Impact of Analytics:

   - Player Evaluation: Combines traditional scouting with data on player efficiency and situational performance.

   - In-Game Decisions: Fourth-down decision-making, play-calling tendencies, and clock management.

   - Long-Term Strategy: Roster construction, injury prevention, and game planning.

Conclusion

Baseball:

- Statistical Significance and Relevance: Due to the discrete nature of events and the large sample size, baseball analytics yield statistically significant and relevant insights. These metrics can be highly predictive of future performance and directly influence game outcomes and player evaluation.

  

Football:

- Data Insufficiency: The complex interactions on the field, smaller sample sizes, and greater variability make it more challenging to derive statistically significant and actionable insights. While analytics are useful for strategic planning and situational decisions, they are less deterministic compared to baseball.

In summary, while analytics play a critical role in both sports, the measurable variables in baseball are more statistically significant and relevant due to the nature of the game, leading to clearer and more direct applications. In contrast, football's complexity and variability mean that while data can inform strategy, it often requires a more nuanced and context-dependent approach.

Winning Head Coaches

 Here is a list of Cleveland Browns head coaches who have a lifetime winning percentage greater than .500:

1. Paul Brown (1946–1962)

   - Regular season: 111-44-5 (.714)

   - Playoffs: 9-5 (.643)

2. Blanton Collier (1963–1970)

   - Regular season: 76-34-2 (.688)

   - Playoffs: 3-4 (.429)

3. Nick Skorich (1971–1974)

   - Regular season: 30-24-2 (.556)

   - Playoffs: 0-2 (.000)

4. Marty Schottenheimer (1984–1988)

   - Regular season: 44-27 (.620)

   - Playoffs: 2-4 (.333)

5. Kevin Stefanski (2020–present)

   - Regular season: 37-31 (.544)

   - Playoffs: 1-2 (.333)

2024: It is all about Deshaun

Every season when I predict where the Cleveland Browns will finish in the ultra tough AFC North Division, I ask myself one question.

What if the GM's of the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers called and each of them offered the following trade?   Their entire roster for the complete roster of the Cleveland Browns.

If that were to happen tomorrow the only team I would say no to is the Pittsburgh Steelers.   Why?  Because in the NFL it is all about the QB.

If Deshaun Watson returns to the status he once enjoyed as a Top 5 QB the answer "no" would be easy.  

So in 2024, Browns fans, it is all about Deshaun.   If his shoulder is sound and the scheme fits his talent, the Browns are going to set the world on fire.

If not, third place is our best case scenario, albeit in the AFC North that still might mean a playoff appearance. 

NFL Football Hall of Fame - Is the Election Process Broken?

I am primarily a Browns fan but since we reside in the best division in the NFL, by far, I have taken to following the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals almost as closely as I follow our Browns.

One of my absolute pet peeves is the fact that Browns great Clay Matthews is not in the Hall of Fame.  It's an injustice to his amazing career.   

It is hard to not feel some real affection for the Bengals because in a sense, were it not for Art Modell's poor judgement, Paul Brown would have guided the Browns instead of forming the expansion Bengals and today Mike Brown would most likely be running the Browns.  

In the process of following the Bengals I have identified 3 more overwhelmingly deserving players who should be in Canton:  Ken Anderson, Tim Krumrie and Corey Dillon.   When you examine the numbers, there is an overwhelming case for each of these athletes.  

Clay Matthews Jr.

- Teams: Cleveland Browns (1978-1993), Atlanta Falcons (1994-1996)

- Career Highlights:

  - Played 19 seasons in the NFL, 16 of which were with the Cleveland Browns.

  - Four-time Pro Bowler (1985, 1987, 1988, 1989).

  - Recorded 1,561 tackles, 69.5 sacks, and 16 interceptions in his career.

  - Known for his durability and consistency, playing in 278 games, which is the 17th most in NFL history.

Hall of Fame Case:

  - Matthews' longevity and productivity are hallmarks of his career. His 1,561 tackles are among the highest ever recorded.

  - His four Pro Bowl selections highlight his peak performance years.

  - Matthews was a key player in the Browns' defensive success during the 1980s, leading to multiple playoff appearances.

  - Few linebackers have demonstrated the combination of durability, consistency, and high-level play over such an extended period.

Ken Anderson

Team: Cincinnati Bengals (1971-1986)

Career Highlights:

  - NFL MVP (1981)

  - Four-time Pro Bowler (1975, 1976, 1981, 1982)

  - NFL Offensive Player of the Year (1981)

  - Led the Bengals to Super Bowl XVI

  - Led the NFL in passer rating four times (1974, 1975, 1981, 1982)

  - Passed for 32,838 yards and 197 touchdowns with a passer rating of 81.9

Hall of Fame Case:

  - Anderson was one of the most accurate and efficient passers of his era.

  - His 1981 MVP season was one of the best by a quarterback in the early 1980s, leading the Bengals to their first Super Bowl appearance.

  - Anderson's career passer rating was among the best of his time, and his completion percentage ranks high historically.

  - His innovation in the short passing game helped pave the way for modern passing offenses.

Corey Dillon

Teams: Cincinnati Bengals (1997-2003), New England Patriots (2004-2006)

Career Highlights:

  - Four-time Pro Bowler (1999, 2000, 2001, 2004)

  - Super Bowl Champion (XXXIX)

  - Set the then-NFL single-game rushing record with 278 yards (2000)

  - Rushed for 11,241 yards and 82 touchdowns in his career

Hall of Fame Case:

  - Dillon's career rushing yards place him in the top 20 all-time.

  - His single-game rushing record stood for six years and remains one of the top performances in NFL history.

  - Dillon was a key player in the Patriots' 2004 Super Bowl run, providing balance to their offense.

  - His consistency and ability to perform at a high level on both struggling and successful teams showcase his talent and versatility.

Tim Krumrie

Team: Cincinnati Bengals (1983-1994)

Career Highlights:

  - Two-time Pro Bowler (1987, 1988)

  - Played in Super Bowl XXIII

  - Recorded 34 sacks and 13 fumble recoveries

  - Known for his toughness

Hall of Fame Case:

  - Krumrie was a dominant force in the middle of the Bengals' defensive line for over a decade.

  - His toughness and durability, epitomized by his quick return from a devastating leg injury, made him a respected figure in the NFL.

  - Krumrie's leadership and performance were crucial in the Bengals' successful seasons in the late 1980s.

  - Krumrie is the only defensive lineman with at least 600 combined tackles during the 1980s

Great Games in Browns History: A Night to Remember - Cleveland Browns' Victory Over the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football

The late 1970s were tumultuous times for Cleveland. The city had recently faced one of its most challenging periods, culminating in 1978 with a financial crisis that led to Cleveland becoming the first major American city to default on its debts since the Great Depression. The once-thriving industrial hub was grappling with a declining manufacturing base, increasing unemployment, and a tarnished national image following the infamous Cuyahoga River fire in 1969.

Despite these hardships, Clevelanders displayed an unwavering spirit. The city was on a mission to rebuild its reputation and regain its footing. Amidst this backdrop of economic struggle and civic determination, sports provided a vital outlet for communal pride and joy. The Cleveland Browns, with their storied history and passionate fanbase, became a beacon of hope.

On September 24, 1979, Cleveland Browns fans packed Cleveland Municipal Stadium, creating an electric atmosphere for a highly anticipated Monday Night Football showdown against the formidable Dallas Cowboys. The game was not just a contest between two NFL teams; it was a moment of unity and defiance for a city eager to demonstrate its resilience.

The Game Unfolds

From the opening whistle, it was clear that this game would be a thriller. The Cowboys, led by quarterback Roger Staubach, came in as one of the league's elite teams. But the Browns, under the leadership of head coach Sam Rutigliano and quarterback Brian Sipe, were ready for the challenge.

The game started with both teams testing each other's defenses, but it wasn't long before the Browns made a statement. The defining moment of the first half came when Brian Sipe connected with Ozzie Newsome on a long touchdown pass. Newsome, a future Hall of Famer, showcased his athleticism and hands, sprinting past the Cowboys' secondary and into the end zone. This play electrified the crowd and set the tone for the rest of the game.

By halftime, the Browns had the game firmly under control, leading 20-7. The crowd, numbering over 83,000, was ecstatic, sensing a significant victory on the horizon.

Dominance in the Second Half

The second half saw the Browns maintaining their dominance. The defense played with ferocity, keeping the Cowboys' offense in check and preventing any substantial comeback attempts. Meanwhile, the offense continued to execute effectively, adding crucial points to extend their lead.

The atmosphere in Cleveland Municipal Stadium was electric. Fans, buoyed by the team's performance, created a deafening roar that reverberated throughout the city. Every tackle, every pass, and every yard gained was met with cheers of approval from the loyal supporters.

The Victory and Its Meaning

The Browns secured a convincing 26-7 victory over the Cowboys, a result that resonated deeply with the fans and the city. The win was not just a triumph on the football field; it was a symbolic victory for Cleveland itself. It provided a much-needed morale boost to a city that had faced numerous challenges and setbacks.

For the fans, the victory was a testament to their unwavering support and belief in their team. It was a night that transcended sports, providing a sense of pride and accomplishment that extended beyond the stadium. The Browns' victory became a rallying point, a reminder that despite the economic and social challenges, Clevelanders could still stand tall and proud.

A Legacy of Hope and Resilience

The 1979 Monday Night Football game between the Cleveland Browns and the Dallas Cowboys remains one of the most cherished memories in the history of the franchise. It exemplified the spirit of a city and its people, resilient in the face of adversity and united in their love for their team.

As Cleveland continued its journey towards recovery and revitalization, the Browns' victory served as a beacon of hope, reminding everyone that even in the darkest times, there are moments of brilliance and triumph that can lift an entire community.

The Top 5 Gambling Scandals in NFL History

With sports gambling now legalized across much of the USA and NFL owners now actively promoting and profiting from gambling, look for more scandals to erupt in the coming seasons.   For now here is a list of the top 5 gambling scandals in NFL history:

Gambling scandals have marred the reputation of the NFL on several occasions. Here are the top five gambling scandals in NFL history, along with some notable players who have been suspended for gambling:

Top 5 Gambling Scandals in NFL History

1. Paul Hornung and Alex Karras (1963)

   - Scandal: Hall of Famer Paul Hornung of the Green Bay Packers and defensive tackle Alex Karras of the Detroit Lions were suspended for the entire 1963 season for betting on NFL games and associating with known gamblers.

   - Outcome: Both players were reinstated for the 1964 season after showing remorse and cooperating with the league.

2. Art Schlichter (1983)

   - Scandal: Art Schlichter, a quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts, was suspended indefinitely for gambling on NFL games during the 1982 season.

   - Outcome:** Schlichter was reinstated in 1984 but struggled with gambling addiction throughout his life, leading to further legal troubles and suspensions.

3. Josh Shaw (2019)

   - Scandal: Arizona Cardinals' cornerback Josh Shaw was suspended indefinitely after it was discovered he had bet on NFL games, including betting against his own team.

   - Outcome: Shaw was suspended through at least the 2020 season, marking the first NFL player suspension for gambling in over 35 years.

4. Calvin Ridley (2022)

   - Scandal: Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley was suspended for at least the entire 2022 season after an investigation revealed he had placed bets on NFL games during a period when he was away from the team.

   - Outcome: Ridley admitted to the wrongdoing and was eligible for reinstatement after the 2022 season.

5. Isaiah Rodgers, Rashod Berry, and Demetrius Taylor (2023)

   - Scandal: Colts players Isaiah Rodgers and Rashod Berry, along with free agent Demetrius Taylor, were suspended indefinitely for betting on NFL games during the 2022 season. 

   - Outcome: They were suspended through at least the end of the 2023 season, continuing the NFL's strict stance on gambling violations.

Browns Raiders Playoff Game 1980 - Parallel Universe

There must be a parallel universe where the below story came true:

On a cold, blustery day in Cleveland, the Browns faced the Oakland Raiders in the AFC Divisional playoff game. The score stood at 14-12 in favor of the Raiders. With the ball on the Oakland 13-yard line and just seconds left on the clock, Browns quarterback Brian Sipe huddled with his team, ready to execute the "Red Right 88" play.

As the huddle broke, Sipe took one last look at the defense. He noticed something unusual: the Raiders seemed to be heavily guarding against the pass. Trusting his instincts, he called an audible at the line of scrimmage.

"Mike, take the handoff," Sipe whispered to running back Mike Pruitt. "We're switching to a run."

The ball was snapped, and Sipe handed it off to Pruitt. With a burst of power and speed, Pruitt shot through a gap in the Raiders' defensive line, evading one tackle and then another. The crowd roared as he crossed the goal line, scoring the winning touchdown. The Browns won 19-14 and advanced to the AFC Championship game.

The following week, the Browns faced the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers' high-powered offense, led by quarterback Dan Fouts, was formidable, but the Browns were ready. Sipe orchestrated a balanced attack, mixing runs and passes to keep the Chargers' defense off-balance. Mike Pruitt continued his stellar play, contributing crucial yards on the ground and catching passes out of the backfield.

In the final minutes, with the game tied at 24-24, Sipe led the Browns down the field. As the clock ticked down, kicker Don Cockroft nailed a 38-yard field goal to secure a 27-24 victory, sending the Browns to their first Super Bowl.

Super Bowl XV in New Orleans saw the Browns face the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles boasted a tough defense, but Brian Sipe was undeterred. From the first snap, he was in the zone, dissecting the Eagles' secondary with pinpoint precision.

Sipe's first touchdown pass came on a deep post route to Reggie Rucker, putting the Browns up early. His second found tight end Ozzie Newsome in the corner of the end zone. As the game progressed, Sipe continued to spread the ball around, finding his receivers in stride and exploiting mismatches.

By halftime, the Browns led 21-10. The Eagles fought back, but Sipe remained unflappable. He threw his third touchdown to Dave Logan on a quick slant, then followed it up with a 25-yard strike to Mike Pruitt, who had snuck out of the backfield. Finally, with the game all but decided, Sipe threw his fifth touchdown pass to Keith Wright, cementing the Browns' victory.

Sipe finished the game with over 400 yards passing and five touchdowns, earning Super Bowl MVP honors. The Browns triumphed 38-24, capturing their first Super Bowl title. The city of Cleveland erupted in celebration, honoring their heroes who had defied the odds and rewritten history. Brian Sipe, with his quick thinking and leadership, had guided the Browns to the pinnacle of football glory.

Getting in Bed with the Devil: The NFL and Gambling

The percentage of NFL revenues derived from gambling is currently estimated to be a relatively small portion of the total income. In 2023, the NFL received around $132 million from gambling-related sponsorships, including partnerships with major sports betting companies like Caesars Entertainment, DraftKings, and FanDuel. This figure is expected to grow significantly, with projections suggesting that legalized sports betting could eventually generate over $2.3 billion annually for the NFL.

Given that the NFL's total annual revenue exceeds $18 billion, gambling revenue currently constitutes less than 1% of its total earnings. However, as the sports betting market continues to expand and more states legalize sports betting, this percentage is likely to increase.

The Brown BLog plan to do a deeper dive on this in the coming months.