Paul DePodesta's GUARDRAIL OF THE WEEK- Don't Pay for Depth! - Cleveland Browns Analytics

 Absurd to think but the Cleveland Browns have been extremely secretive when it comes to detailing the strategies that result from their extraordinary investment in analytics.

Why is it absurd?   Because analytics have produced below average results.

How can we measure the results of analytics if the Browns hold their strategies so close to the vest?  Well let me take a stab at this.

- Paul DePodesta is in his 8th season as Chief Strategy Officer

- The Browns record in his first 7 seasons is 40-73-1.....

- The only documented record I can locate of Mr. DePodesta's strategy are his infamous Guardrails:

 

Every single guardrail published all those years ago can be questioned and the Brown Blog plan to look at every guardrail in the coming weeks, but today let's look at one guardrail that is "in the news" of late.

PAUL DePODESTA GUARDRAIL OF THE WEEK - DON'T PAY FOR DEPTH

In a season in which Jimmy Haslam is paying over $280,000,000 in player salaries, many of them free agent signees, which in itself is an abandonment of another guardrail strategy, but leave that for another week, the Browns simply could not resist the analytical goldmine of accumulating a 5th round pick and saving $2,000,000 in salary by trading Josh Dobbs.   Dobbs is playing well, he is playing in fact like a QB who has been in the NFL for 6 seasons and knows how to handle the QB role.

I too was swept away by DTR's pre season performance however I am not being paid a 7 figure salary to make roster decisions for the Cleveland Browns.   

The aligned team of Paul DePodesta, Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski are however paid millions to decide how to spend Jimmy Haslam's billions and in less than 2 months that trade has the stench of horrid decision making.

Given how and how often the Browns run Deshaun Watson, having depth at QB is critical in a season that Jim Haslam hoped to make a deep playoff run.   But Analytics says don't pay for depth and here we are.........

Go Browns!

The Brown Blog Predicts: The Roller Coaster Ride, Week 4 vs The Ravens

 Being a Browns fan is much like riding a roller coaster, especially game to game.   Browns fans aspirations this season have gone from "Super Bowl" after the Bengals game, to the world is ending after a tough loss to the Steelers and right back to "We are the Champions" after an impressive win against Tennessee.

Look for this weeks game against Baltimore to be like riding a roller coaster all game long.   

There is a lot to peel back when looking at this week:

- The Ravens have a ton of injured players

- Deshaun Watson has a sore right shoulder and at this point, it is starting to feel like he won't be anywhere near 100% for the Ravens.

- The Browns incredible defense now has three full games of film out there and John Harbaugh is a tactician who knows how to make a game plan and work the clock when his team is at a disadvantage. 

Here is how I see the game unfolding:

The Browns defense is amazing however so is Lamar Jackson.  Like every fan I have been utterly impressed by what Myles Garrett and his teammates are achieving under the vision of Jim Schwartz.  Playing the Devil's Advocate, it's hard to come up with scenario's of how to combat a defensive line that is playing so fast combined with defensive backs who are capable of strong man coverage.

The one tactic I can imagine working is a $50,000,000 QB who can run the football like a tailback.

I see Lamar Jackson gaining over 100 yards Sunday using clever run designs.  The Ravens are going to score more than 3 points.

On the other side, Deshaun Watson is sporting a clipped wing right now.   I can envision a scenario in which the Browns, knowing it's a long season with a bye week coming, pull Watson early if he is struggling.  Especially since the extremely physical Ravens D is going to look for every opportunity to pound the Browns star QB.

So.... I think the Browns will lose, right?   Not quite.

The Ravens are nursing injuries at every key position group while the Browns, other than Watson are in relatively sound shape.   I think Sunday is going to be a roller coaster where the lead changes hands numerous times, but the Browns defense is going to get burned for a few big plays by Lamar, will also  manage to force a few turnovers, maybe even score a few points.

If Dorian Thompson Robinson plays I believe he will play well, if Deshaun Watson guts out an entire game, I think he will play responsibly and avoid turnovers.

I see Baltimore scoring two TDs and kicking 3 field goals, but I think the Browns will get "one more point" and win a thriller

The Brown Blog Predicts

Browns        24

Ravens        23

The Brown BLOg is 2-1 Predicting the outcome of Browns games season to date.

The Brown BLog Predicts: Week 3 vs Titans

 While it would be great fun to watch the chaos that will unfold should the Browns lose on Sunday against Tennessee, a Browns loss would require an emotional collapse that is unprecedented even for the Browns. 

The loss of Nick Chubb is a massive blow to both the team and it's emotions, but signing Kareem Hunt was a very smart move that has already lifted spirits.  I see at least one touchdown by Kareem on Sunday. 

Tennessee is well coached but they really lack the depth of talent needed to compete on the road with a team that's as loaded as the Browns.  

I see a tough day in store for Tennessee as the Browns coast to an easy win on Sunday.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns        27

Titans            17

The Brown BLog is 1-1 predicting Browns games this season

Paul DePodesta's Guardrail of the week! Scheme Production = Plays not Players

 The Cleveland Browns believe that scheme production exists and after last Monday night I think they've convinced me!

One can imagine Kevin Stefanski and "AVP" deep in the bowels of their Berea lair, preparing their game plan by saying: 

"Mike Tomlin will NEVER imagine that we will throw to our third string tight end on the very first play of a huge game!!!"

Of course they were right however the fact that they surprised Mike Tomlin is small consolation to Browns fans because unlike Kevin Stefanski, Mr. Tomlin teaches his athletes to trust their reads and make plays.   

So unfortunately for the Browns, opening in 13 Empty did not confuse the Steelers. They adjusted Alex Highsmith into coverage against the legendary Harrison Bryant and the result of the play could most certainly be labelled "scheme production"

Unfortunately for the Browns it was scheme production on behalf of Alex Highsmith.

Touchdown Steelers

What is Deshaun Watson's problem?

 People are already debating what exactly is wrong with Deshaun Watson.   He once was one of the best QB's in the entire NFL and now he has slipped in every category.  

The Brown BLog has the answer!

At some point in the last 4 years, it sure does seem like Deshaun Watson lost his way and has slipped into Satan's traps:  Materialism and Idle Hands. These are the devil's tools and they might be wrecking havoc on this world class athlete.

The Browns organization is driven by facts and figures so I am sure they are studying the numbers and focused on things like Deshaun's reads, his footwork, and a variety of other quantifiable elements of Deshaun's play.   However they are on the wrong track, the only solution is for Deshaun Watson to change his life by accepting the truth of our savior Jesus Christ into his life.

Once Deshaun accepts Christ as his personal savior, all of his on field woes will melt away in the warm embrace of our Lord.   

Let's pray this happens sooner than later!

The Brown BLog Predicts: The Poker Game week 2 vs Pittsburgh

The weather and Jim Schwartz started to create believers in the Cleveland Browns season opener vs Cincinnati last Sunday. 

 In an epic performance the Browns defense dominated the day while Deshaun Watson found a way to engineer points vs a solid Bengal D in spite of the weather. It was a great debut for the 2023 Browns.

The NFL is like a poker match and now there is some film for opponents to start to counter Jim Schwartz' amazing defense. Mike Tomlin talked about Cleveland's "Mr. Chubb" and we should think about Pittsburgh's "Mr. Tomlin". Mike Tomlin is a future Hall of Fame coach and he is bound to come up with an offensive tactic or two against the Browns in week 2. 

 What will be those tactics? Here is my best guess 

 - Challenge Cleveland's corners who shut down Cincinnati mostly running man to man coverage. 

 - Look for Pittsburgh to use extra pass blockers 

 - Pittsburgh will run screen passes in the middle of the field, hunting a few big plays against the blitz and trying to keep Grant Delpit occupied in the middle of the field. 

On Defense the Steelers need the Browns to make mistakes. Winning the battle of turnovers is a key for Pittsburgh on Monday night. 

 Finally, the weather forecast for Monday night in Pittsburgh is for a beautiful night, neither side should be handicapped by bad weather. 

I was immensely impressed by the Browns D last Sunday but their offense is still a work in progress. Deshaun Watson is a leader and I think he will soon be the Deshaun Watson we all saw dominate the NFL in Houston, but against the Steelers and Mr. Tomlin on Monday Night, I see an interception or two in his future and an up and down evening. 

 Look for a tight low scoring battle that Mr. Tomlin walks away yet again with a W vs the Browns. 

BBLog Predicts 

Steelers 20 

Browns 17 

 The Brown Blog is 0-1 this season.

The Brown BLog Predicts: 2023 Season Opener - Browns vs Bengals - Cohesion

During the 2023 Preseason, Browns leadership noted more than once that no other NFL team has to open the first month of the season by facing each of their division rivals.   

Coincidence?

The Haslam's broke with the NFL cartel's unwritten agreement to avoid any player contract be fully guaranteed.   Is it a coincidence that the Browns start the season with a run of difficult games that could derail their entire season?  I doubt it but let's move on to what is relevant right now, the team.

The Browns have a much improved roster:

- Deshaun Watson will have a full season to tune his game.

- The Browns front office has given up on their analytics driven strategy of saving money on defensive tackles.  They now have NFL quality defensive tackles, probably because Jim Schwartz would not agree to coach a defense using tackles chosen by Paul DePodesta.

- Elijah Moore is a game changing talent at WR.

- Juan Thornhill is a legit free safety.

So with all that good news, what do i think happens this Sunday?

Browns will lose a heartbreaker.   Why?   The Brown defense looks ready to play but their offense lacks cohesion.   Teams take time to gel and this team still needs time to come together.   There are too many key players on the Browns offense who have weeks in the Stefanski system.   Meanwhile the Bengals in the last two years have a Super Bowl and two conference championship games worth of experience.  Jim Schwartz' defense will challenge them for sure, but even with a sore calf and one week of practice, Joe Burrow and his mates will find a way to stack up enough points to beat the Browns.

Deshaun Watson will play well, so we can all talk about a moral victory on Monday and look forward to what promises to be an interesting 2023 season.

Brown BLog Predicts:

Cincinnati Bengals    27

Cleveland Browns     17

Brown BLog Predicts: The Baker Bowl!

 After an off season that was filled with everything except X's and O's, finally the 2023 NFL Regular Season is upon us.   

Something big is stirring in the kitchen:  The BAKER BOWL!!

The Browns open against their former QB Baker Mayfield in what promises to be an emotional battle.  Football is an emotional game, however this game is going to come down to old fashioned execution.

Many pundits see the Browns as a Super Bowl ready team because of the team's depth of talent at many spots.   And we all know that the Browns leadership see themselves as smarter than the rest of the NFL.  But are they really smarter?    The Browns have a few significant holes and Carolina will expose those holes.

Hole #1:   The Browns Defense is vulnerable between the tackles.  Watch film on the Browns, our defensive tackles are consistently driven off the line of scrimmage.  The Browns strategy is obvious, defy the NFL to run up the gut.   Why?   Because it's a passing league.   The Browns will not invest in interior defensive line talent because they do not care if opponents run successfully up the gut, nor do they believe most opponents will.   Smart?  Maybe, but I think Carolina is smart enough to exploit those holes.

Hole #2:  Wide Receiver.   The Cleveland Browns have one proven NFL receiver.   Look for Carolina to take Amari Cooper away

Hole #3:   QB.  I like Jacoby Brissett.  He's one of the best backup QBs in the NFL, he will give the Browns a fighting chance every week but Jacoby Brissett is no Baker Mayfield.    Baker can accurately rifle a football 30 to 40 yards downfield.  Defenses have to respect Baker's ability to thread a needle and CREATE big plays.   It's the reason why a pathetic 1-31 team was transformed into a 500+ team.  With Brissett, the Browns are back to a wise game manager who will take what the defense gives and cannot create big plays.  He will find holes but to get big plays Brissett exploits mistakes.   Don't count on Carolina handing too many big plays to Brissett on Sunday

Hole #4:  Coaching.   The Browns believe that they can scheme the perfect play on every down.  It's the reason Kevin Stefanski disliked Baker Mayfield and kept him "on a leash".   Baker liked to go for the big play and Baker understood that he could open up defenses by forcing them to respect his ability to thread the needle 30 yards downfield.   Kevin Stefanski loves journeymen QBs who shut up and do as told.   Will time prove him right?  Will he forge a relationship with DeShaun Watson?  Who knows.   

Stefanski will love Jacoby Brissett because he faithfully follows orders.    Not sure how many games he will win though.   Maybe half of them, maybe less.  But against Carolina look for the Browns to get hammered.  Brissett will have trouble finding open receivers anywhere on the field and Carolina will move the ball against the Browns by exploiting the middle of the field and creating a few big plays.

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns 16

Panthers  31

The Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday Jan 18, 2021:  Browns vs Chiefs

"What have you done for me lately?"

  

The Chiefs went 14-2 this season but fact of the matter is that during the last month of the season, Kansas City was not at it's best.  Since the day Mitchell Schwartz went down, the Chiefs offensive line has struggled and so has Patrick Mahomes.   Late in the regular season I watched the Chiefs vs the Dolphins game.  The Chiefs won that game 33-27 but they struggled all game long, Patrick Mahomes was intercepted 3 times.

Meanwhile, in the last 2 months, the Browns have an emerging franchise QB, who will play behind the league's best offensive line.  The Cleveland Browns are the hottest team in the NFL

The question today is how often can the Browns force the Chiefs into turnovers.   Whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game.

My money is on the Browns to shock the non Cleveland world with another big win.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns     33

Chiefs       30

The Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday January 10, 2021:  Browns vs Steelers 

Wild Card Game

Getting Lucky?

Might the Covid disaster of this past week be a bit of extraordinary good luck for our Browns?

Crazy thought say you?  Well, conventional wisdom has been proven wrong over and over again during the 2020 NFL Season:

• CONVENTIONAL WISDOM:  NFL teams need a preseason to be "sharp".   WRONG:  Without a preseason NFL teams looked sharp on day one and continued to play well all season long.
• CONVENTIONAL WISDOM:  Practice makes perfect.  WRONG:   Due to Covid protocols, many practices had to be cancelled during the season.   The Browns and other teams found that Zoom meetings and virtual practice sessions work.   

Practice is important but we never think about the wear and tear on the bodies of these athletes.  At this point in the season, the Browns are a well oiled machine.  They are also beat up with nagging injuries.  We have all heard coaches state at this point in the season there are no NFL players that are 100% healthy.   

Is it possible that a few extra days of rest will result in a fresher, faster team on Sunday?

One might worry about mental preparation but we just spent the entire previous week getting ready for the exact same Steelers team.  This week our Browns tuned their tactics, they are already well schooled on Steelers schemes.

We are going to find out Sunday night just how important resting bodies might be.  The NFL is brutal on a man's body, I believe the extra rest at this point is a plus that outweighs on field practice.

As for the loss of Kevin Stefanski.  All season long he has led the Browns strategy and tactics.  He has held both players and assistants accountable.  I would argue that our playoff game vs the Steelers will be the ultimate proof that the team is well run.  

It's true we have key players out with Covid, we may get some back just in time.   Getting Ward back in particular would be huge but let's also focus on who we do have.   We have Baker Mayfield, perhaps the most motivated QB in the NFL, who after 3 seasons of learning under 4 coaches, now appears to have the light going off in his head about how to win in the NFL.   Perfect timing.   

Baker will be the difference Sunday evening, he is going to put the team on his shoulders, build his legend and take the Browns to the next round.   

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns   27

Steelers   24

Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday Jan 3, 2021:  Browns vs Steelers

"One step at a time" 

I love Browns fans who have an irrational optimism in the face of any negative information.

This week our Browns have faced obstacle after obstacle due to injuries and the Covid crisis.  A list of 3 starters and 2 regulars will have to miss the Steelers game including Sendejo, Goodson, Ward, Bryant and Malcolm Smith.   In addition Takitaki has an ankle injury as does Wyatt Teller.   Both may play but will they be effective?

Meanwhile the Steelers have decided to rest 4 key starters including Big Ben and star players Maurkice Pouncy, TJ Watt and Cam Herward.

The conclusion of Browns fans?   Our lost players are easily replaceable, the Steelers lost players are irreplaceable.   Sunday is a sure win!   Great!

But wait a minute....  

I hope and pray I am wrong but I feel nowhere near as confident as the legions this Sunday.  

Here are my reasons why:

• Practice is important.   The Browns have missed one on field practice this week as Covid protocols drove delays and cancellations.   The Browns ability to drill their game plan has to be impacted.   A missed day of on field practice is not just made up by staying extra on Friday and Saturday.   The cycle of preparation has been changed, in a game of inches it could be a factor.
• The Steelers are deep.  There are many examples here but my favorite is Avery Williamson, a linebacker acquired together with a 7th round draft pick during this season from the Jets in exchange for a 5th round draft pick.   The Browns could have had Williamson too but analytics must have said "wait until next year to invest in linebackers".  Williamson is a good player and last week contributed a sack in the key Steelers victory.
• The loss of Goodson and Ward in particular transform the Browns defense into one that is vulnerable even to a QB like Mason Rudolph.
• While many are quick to dismiss Rudolph as worthless because he had a terrible game last season vs the Browns, he is fresh, healthy and has a 5-3 career record as a starter.  Rudolph may not be more than an average NFL QB but he certainly is capable to move the Steelers offense especially with a patient short passing game mixed with an occasional deep throw. 

My final point is that football is an emotional game and there are finally signs that the emotional high that carried the Browns in November and December is starting to fracture.  Baker Mayfield, our franchise QB, had another "Jesus Tony" moment this week, only this time with Mary Kay Cabot.  Baker's passion drives his success but his cocky answer to Mary Kay is all about barking to the press instead of focusing on biting the opponent.   I love Baker and fully believe in him but in the NFL he needs to focus his energy and prep 100% on the opponent.   Last year in the game after his "Jesus Tony" incident, the Browns lost to a very beatable Denver Broncos team who were using their 3rd QB.

I will be thrilled if I am wrong but I see a heartbreaker coming.

If we lose, hopefully we get some help and still get into the playoffs.

If not, transforming the Browns into a playoff team requires many steps and Sunday may just be another lesson learned along the way to the Browns becoming a playoff team.   

Brown BLog Predicts

Steelers   17

Browns    16

The Brown BLog are 8-6 year to date 

Browns vs Steelers:  A game filled with subplots!

 

The Browns Steelers match up this Sunday is filled with interesting subplots, both in the days running up to the game and on gameday itself:

Subplots before Gameday:

•  Will Mike Tomlin rest any starters? 

• Will Browns players who had to sit out Sunday because they were exposed to Goodson get Covid or will they not come down with Covid and be eligible to play.  This is huge for the Browns:  Landry, Higgins, Hodge, Peoples-Jones and Phillips.     

• Does Jedrick Wills have Covid or not?   Another huge unknown that we will know more about soon 

• Can Wyatt Teller get back on the field Sunday.  Against the Steelers there will be nowhere to hide a rookie Guard, the Jets exposed Harris's weaknesses, imagine what Pittsburgh might come up with.

Gameday subplots:

• Will the Browns win and make the playoffs for the first time in ice ages? 

• If Tomlin rests Big Ben, will Mason Rudolph and Myles Garrett clash? 

• If Tomlin does not rest his starters, is he doing so to keep his team sharp for the playoffs or is there an element of revenge not to mention an emotional edge in the future vs an emerging Browns team?   Denying the Browns a playoff spot would certainly feel sweet to Mike Tomlin who cannot possibly enjoy hearing all year long how great a coach Kevin Stefanski is while he has never been given any credit after 14 winning seasons and a Super Bowl. 

• Can Baker Mayfield get back into top form after a 3 fumble game vs the Jets?

Looking forward to a very dramatic Sunday in Cleveland.
Go Browns! 

Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday December 27:  Browns vs Jets

"Winning is simple in the NFL"

I am writing this prediction after the news of the Browns top 4 wide receivers being declared out by Covid protocols.  In addition, two starting linebackers AND starting LT Jedrick Wills are out.  Unlike the mass of Browns fans who believe winning in New York today will be simple, I respectfully disagree.   The loss of these players took place 18 hours before game time.  An entire week's preparation now must be reshuffled.  

The Jets are 1-13 but as Bill Belichick famously has repeated, there is no such thing as an easy game in the NFL.   What the Jets matchup will be is the ultimate test of how well prepared Kevin Stefanski and his staff are.   

Questions that we will get answers to today:

- Does Stefanski's gameplan get driven down to the level of players on the taxi squad

- Does each athlete prepare as if he is going to play, even in week 17 of a season in which he has not played a game?

Every clue we have this season is that Stefanski holds everyone accountable to a high standard, even those folks on the taxi squad.  

Today we will find out how the Browns preparation holds out under the worst imaginable circumstances.  

I see the Browns winning today and I do not think the final score will be close which in some ways is a shame because I dread reading the Twitter posts of those infamous Browns homers, who will claim winning in the NFL is simple and will all claim "I told you so".

Winning is not simple, the Browns will win today because they have a coach who understands accountability, knows how to craft a winning plan and how to install his game plan so that every player on the team is ready.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns    23

Jets          13

The Brown BLog are 8-5 this season predicting the outcome of Browns games.