BL Predicts: Week 7 - This "is" still the Cleveland Browns people

In face of all rational logic, I just have a bad feeling this week folks.

This game will be the true test of Mike Pettine in his farewell season as Browns head coach.  Jimmy Haslam has proven to Cleveland fans that he demands short term perfection even if success in the NFL requires long term commitment.  Pettine knows he is on the spot right now, fighting for his job but I don't see Cleveland being healthy enough, talented enough and experienced enough to make this the season that the Browns pull off a worst to first type of transformation.

Derek Carr is a rookie QB but he has shown signs that he is ready to emerge.  Furthermore against the Brown's break but don't bend defense, Carr has the type of arm that can break big plays.  The Browns D is banged up, Carr just might be ready for a big game in what looks to be unseasonably good weather Sunday in Cleveland.

Last week the Jaguars gave the NFL a blueprint on how to control the Browns zone blocking scheme.   The Raiders run a 4-3 which is the perfect formation to counter zone blocking.   Defensive linemen need to penetrate, stay in their lanes and let linebackers do their job.

Once you defang the Browns run game, Brian Hoyer transforms into just another average QB.  The Raiders have struggled against big armed QB's this season but against Tom Brady, who Brian Hoyer is often compared to, the Raiders had a very respectable showing, holding Brady and the Pats to 16 points.   With Hoyer forced into obvious passing situations, the Raiders can pin their ears back and pressure him into incompletions and costly mistakes.

On offense, Derek Carr has shown, in the words of Mike Pettine, that he can make all the passes.   The Browns and their 12 defensive backs will have their hands full, especially if the Raiders are able to run the ball early.  I'm going with a season deflating upset.

BL Predicts:

Raiders     28
Browns     17

The BL are 3-3 year to date predicting Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 6 vs the lowly Jags

A lot of Browns fans are counting on an easy win Sunday in Jacksonville.  I agree on one count only.   The Browns are going to win, but it won't be easy.

After Alex Mack left the Steelers game last Sunday with his season ending injury, I focused my binoculars on John Greco and Paul McQuistan.   I was impressed by both, the Browns didn't lose a beat as both Greco and McQuistan were particularly dominant while run blocking.  The zone blocking scheme of Kyle Shanahan stood out.  The Browns were successful to move the entire Steelers defense en masse, at times it seemed to me that the Steelers D played into the Browns hands by trying to move with their blockers towards the Browns running back.   Penetrate gaps and hold your lane is what I was thinking Steelers defenders should do.   Reading up this week on tactics to stop a zone blocking scheme verified my thoughts.  Zone blocking is best countered with a 4-3 lineup whose lineman penetrate and stay in lanes.  Let the outside linebackers do their job to contain and the middle linebacker must make a lot of tackles.

If I am Jacksonville, I'm going to focus on stopping the Browns zone running by playing a lot of 4-3 and daring Hoyer to pass.  I think this strategy will in fact work and the Jags will hold the Browns offense a season low in points.

That brings us to the other major factor this week.   A rookie QB with penchant for pick 6's.   There's a reason coaches hate rookies and Blake Bortles is showing us that reason.   He has given up 3 pick 6's this season.   At times he has looked great, many others he's looked like, well, Brandon Weeden.   in the Hoyer vs Bortles matchup, I'm guessing Hoyer will make fewer mistakes and that will be the difference this week.   The only thing that could really muddy my prediction up is if, instead of passing, when in doubt, Bortles runs the ball.   Then we could have a major problem, but I think the Browns will bottle him up no matter what he does.

In what will be a close one, I see our Browns sneaking out of Florida with a W.

BL Predicts

Browns    19
Jags          17


The BL are 3-2 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Browns vs Steelers, Ch ch ch changes

For nearly 4 years, predicting the Browns to lose nearly every week has provided the Brown Log with tangible evidence of our ability to see and predict the future with stunning accuracy.  However, last Sunday in Tennessee may have provided evidence that the times they are a changing.

The 2014 season will turn on what happens Sunday vs the Steelers and there are three keys to the game.

First, Joe Haden must find a way to play.  Ben Roethlisberer abused Justin Gilbert every chance he had in the season opener and the Browns have to find a way to keep Gilbert off the field.

Second, the Browns must put strong pressure on Big Ben.

Third our offense has to continue to move the ball on the ground and keep the ball out of Pittsburgh's hands. 

For the first time in a long time, the Brown Log believes that the Browns will actually win a game.

BL Predicts:

Browns   23

Steelers   21 

The BL are 2-2 season to date in predicting the winner of Browns games. 

BL Predicts: Browns vs Titans without rose colored glasses

The home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL.   That's a fact so when predicting a road team to win in the NFL, you must have a strong reason because the odds are stacked against the road team.

Browns fans wear rose colored glasses more than any fans in the league, hence the majority of Clevelanders predict a win this Sunday in Nashville.   Pundits expect the Browns to improve significantly Sunday and they probably will get better in certain phases of the game.  Our D in fact, can't get much worse.   However don't expect that the Titans were sitting around looking for ways to get worse.  They too will get better this Sunday.

So while the Browns should improve their defense, the team will digress in other phases of the game.  The Browns are the only team in the entire NFL without a turnover this season and look for that streak to end Sunday under the pressure of a rowdy home crowd in Nashville and an aggressive Titans defense led by Ray Horton that focuses on creating turnovers.   On the road, turnovers often make the difference and I expect the Browns to make up for lost time Sunday with at least two turnovers.

We see the Browns losing a tight one Sunday in which a few key turnovers will impact the result of a close battle

BL Predicts

Titans       19
Browns    13

The BL are 2-1 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

"Play Like a Brown" Award: Week 3 - Kyle Fuller

The Brown Log have created a new weekly feature.   Each week we will chose the best player from that week's NFL games and bestow on him the "Playing like a Brown" honor.

This week the player who most demonstrated the skill and toughness on the field of play to be honored as "Playing like a Brown", was Kyle Fuller of the Bears whose interception and hard nosed defense helped the Bears beat the Jets on the road.

One fun fact that I think most Browns fans are aware of is that Kyle Fuller was picked with the number 14 pick in last years NFL draft.

Congrats Kyle!

Light at the end of the tunnel for the Browns?

As a Clevelander, it frustrates me that the same fans who are critical of anything that happens to the Cleveland Indians, who were just eliminated from the playoff hunt with two games remaining in their season, are somehow able to see a light at the end of the tunnel in 2014 for the Cleveland Browns.

In spite of over a decade of evidence to the contrary, Browns fans assume that the 2014 season will be different because there were some good signs in the first three games of the season.   There are two problems with that assumption:

1.  Many fans assume that the Browns will improve in upcoming games because the off week gives the squad time to work on correcting issues the team has on defense and on special teams.   I'm certain that the Browns will improve the team over the bye week, but there are 31 other teams in the NFL that are busily focused on improving.    The idea that the 3 extra days of prep that players have during bye week will magically allow the Browns to surpass NFL teams and start a winning run is utterly naive. 

2.  If you've ever run an organization that includes more than 50 people, you understand that human nature is such that bad times provoke turbulence on any team.   We are going to find out how good a leader Mike Pettine is.    One thing is for certain, there is no way that it's all "peace and love" in the Browns locker room.  No organization of dozens of men is EVER perfectly motivated.   My main worry is driven by Pettine's public criticism of Joe Haden.   Pettine's D is very much different from that of Ray Horton, our last defensive coordinator.  Haden became a Pro Bowl Corner in Horton's D.  In Pettine's scheme much additional pressure is being put on Haden who has allowed some big plays.   In an obvious reference to Haden, Pettine publicly commented last week that big name players have to play big time football.    In Pettine's scheme, Haden is asked to play on the right side and the left side of the defense.   Under Horton, Haden usually stuck to the left side of the field.   It's not as simple as saying "cover that guy" when you change sides of the field and surely Haden must be irritated to be raised up as the banner boy by Pettine for the entire team's failure.

Haden is very popular with his teammates and if he starts to complain behind the scenes that this high school coach and his radical changes are the reason behind Haden's woes, what we will witness against Tennessee is that new problems may crop up.

Teams that lose focus and unity do things like fumble the football, throw interceptions and give up more big plays.  Will Pettine be able to hold the team together AND publicly criticize leading players on the team.  Maybe he will, in about one week, we damn sure are going to find out.

It's a certainty that in losing times, Pettine's leadership of the team will be challenged in some way, and unlike past losing teams he coached like the 2012 Jets or the 2013 Bills, this time it will come entirely down to him to solve player rebellions.  Pettine may well emerge from these tough times consolidating his position as leader or he may drive the team into the gutter.   It'll be fun to watch but as for the 2014 season thus far the Browns have won 33% of their games.   To expect them to exceed this percentage during the remainder of the 2014 season is unrealistic.   

BL Predicts: Pavlov's Dawg Pound & Week 3 vs the Ravens

I'm always happy to be wrong when I predict the Browns to lose but much like Pavlov's Dog, predicting the Browns to lose has provided me years of evidence that I can accurately see into the future.   In other words, in spite of some good signs provided last Sunday by our Browns, I am not quite ready to jump on the Browns Super Bowl bandwagon.

In what will likely be a hard fought defensive battle that comes down to the 4th quarter, I see the Ravens defense handling the Browns running game and putting pressure on Hoyer when he passes.  I also see the Ravens experience giving them an edge on offense.   The Browns D on numerous occasions used 7 defensive backs against the Saints, who lost the entire 1st quarter before they figured out a plan to counter punch.   I think the Ravens offense will be ready for all of the Browns potential curve balls and that resulting big plays will be the difference.

BL Predicts:

Ravens    24
Browns   17


The BL are 1-1 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

NFL fans: Just who really are the hypocrites???

NFL fans have been looking the other way for 30 years pretending we don't know players use steroids because while PED use is known to make humans significantly more violent, it also has raised the level of play in the NFL to spectacular levels. That we all express surprise when one of our robots blows up seems a bit naive. They've been detonating like dynamite for 30 years, it's just that social media now puts it in everyone's face so we can't ignore it

BL Predicts: Week 2 vs New Orleans - Showing your hand...

First, let us be clear about one thing:  we believe Mike Pettine is a good coach.  However he's not a miracle worker.   For the Browns to put up a winning season with yet another new coach, yet another round of dramatic player turnover and yet another offensive and defensive system is tantamount to asking for a miracle.

There were positive signs in the Browns season opening loss to the Steelers.  Foremost, Pettine seems to have chosen players that have a competitive edge and will fight for every yard.   If the Browns hang with Pettine for 5 years or more I think his leadership will pay off.   If…..

On the negative side, after a preseason of hiding many facets of their offense the Browns finally had to show their hand.   Their offense was effective in the second half against the Steelers as they were effective running the ball and passing off of play action.  Unfortunately, the Browns are not yet far enough along in Shanahan's offense.   I believe they pretty much showed everything they have against Pittsburgh.  Now that we've shown our hand, it won't be difficult for New Orleans to be fully prepared for whatever the Browns O can throw at them Sunday.

A lot of pundits see the Browns winning on Sunday.   Football is an emotional game and with a break or two anything can happen but what I foresee is a long day in store for our Brownies.   New Orleans has a very talented team but they were defeated in Atlanta by an extremely athletic group of receivers led by a top flight QB.   The Browns have neither and New Orleans will have a chip on their shoulder Sunday.

Look for an ugly day for our local hero's and another lesson for Jimmy Haslam in the price a team pays for nonstop turnover

BL Predicts

Browns         17
Saints            34

the BL are 1-0 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: 2014 Season opener vs Steelers. History & experience

History and experience are sufficient to foretell the result of tomorrow's season opener vs Mike Tomlin's Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is in his 8th year as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Mike Pettine is in his 8th week of full time coaching of this team, the Cleveland Browns.

Since 2009, Tomlin, his staff and his key player leadership like Big Ben, have played a defense coached by Mike Pettine 6 times and their record against Pettine's teams is 5-1.   Tomorrow's Browns game therefore is old hat for them.  They know exactly what they have in store, they've been there before.   The Steelers week of preparation for the Browns has been about "refining" tactics of an existing plan to use their offense to attack Pettine's D.   Same story for Tomlin's defense.  They have a feeling for what they'll face against Kyle Shanahan because they've been there and done that.   

Meanwhile, Mr. Pettine and Mr. Shanahan have had to focus on teaching 53 players the basics of their own schemes.  

it promises to be yet another gloomy day in Browns history as we pay the price for constant turnover of management, coaches, players and playbooks.

BL Predicts:

Pittsburgh       24

Cleveland       13

It would be a positive development if NCAA Universities drop football

The other day, I heard an interview in which the President emeritus of Northwestern, Henry Bienen, made a not so veiled threat that if unions are permitted for college football players, Northwestern may drop football.  

I'd like to point out that under the right circumstances, should institutions of higher education drop football, it would be an extremely positive development for the vast majority of interests.  

First things first, our Congress would need to remove the NFL's anti trust exemption, thus allowing free market principals to rule.  Entrepreneurs and their capital, would then be free to create new professional football leagues that could replace the current university football system.  The result would be thousands of jobs that pay a solid wage to football players and team staffs who today participate in today's college athletic system.

Unions are needed for NCAA players because today players have absolutely no voice and it's clear that this fact is to their extreme detriment.  Football is a violent game that consumes bodies over time.  I remember in the not so distant past, a college football season was comprised of 10 games.  Next years playoff system means that some colleges will play up to 15 games.   That means more career ending injuries.  Adding more games over the years was done without a single player having a voice in that decision.

Today, the NCAA treats football players with disdain and disrespect.   Look at the price tag on the below Ohio State jersey with Terrell Pryor's number 2 on it.  This photo was taken at Christmas 2010 in a sporting goods store.  $80 and not a cent went to Terrell Pryor.  It's a joke.

When Michael Dell was a University student studying business and he started selling computers from his dorm room, nobody stopped him from profiting because he hadn't graduated.   It's obscene abuse for the NCAA to profit from athlete's images but prevent them from doing the same.  Why shouldn't Nike have been able to pay Johnny Football his millions while he still was playing at Texas A&M??

Should the NCAA continue to insist on perpetuating the current system of college athletics, I say let the schools get back to the business of educating students and let's permit the free market to provide us with additional options when it comes to football.   

Joe Banner - How to increase the bottom line by juggling the bottom of the roster.

To understand why Joe Banner cut players like JMJ and LJ Fort last year, one need only look at the below chart.

In 2013, the savings by using an undrafted rookie free agent making the minimum instead of a 3rd year player making the minimum was $140,000 per player.

There is a $75,000 savings by substituting a rookie free agent for a one year veteran who makes the league minimum.  

Before game 1 of the 2013 season, Banner cut veterans like Trevin Wade, Brandon Jackson, Kellen Davis, Brad Smelley, JMJ and LJ Fort in favor of a group of undrafted rookie free agents.  These cuts added over $1,000,000 to Jimmy Haslam's bottom line.

Wade went on to perform well for the playoff New Orleans Saints.   JMJ for the playoff Chiefs.  Both could have helped the Browns win instead of lose games like Jacksonville, where rookie free agent LB Darius Eubanks was abused vs the run or New England, where special teams and rookie play hurt the Browns badly.

Joe Banner is President of the Browns because he's very skilled at maximizing the bottom line through careful management of player selection.  Banner's view, supported by yes man Mike Lombardi, is that the bottom of roster players are spare parts, and one reason Chud is gone is that he did not buy into that system, especially over the course of the season as he witnessed the price the Browns paid for cutting quality second year and veteran players.

BL Predicts: Super Bowl 48 - A study in contrasts

Super Bowl 48 offers up a couple of interesting subplots with fascinating contrasts:

- A traditional pocket passer, perhaps the greatest in the history of the game, Peyton Manning, vs a new wave QB, Russell Wilson, who can gain yards with his arm or his legs.

- Denver's great offense vs Seattle's great defense.

I think the game will come down to experience vs inexperience.   Not a single player on the Seahawks has played in the pressure pot called the Super Bowl.   Denver isn't exactly loaded with Super Bowl experience either.  Only four of their players have been in the big game, but one is their leader, Peyton Manning.  No question, Manning understands what the Seahawks are trying to do on defense and will guide his teammates to exploit Seattle's holes.

In what may be the last championship won by a traditional pocket passer for a long time, look for the Bronco's and Peyton Manning to win by a comfortable margin over Seattle

BL Predicts

Denver        27
Seattle         14

The BL's 2013 season playoff prediction record is 7-3 to date.