BL Predicts: Pavlov's Dawg Pound & Week 3 vs the Ravens

I'm always happy to be wrong when I predict the Browns to lose but much like Pavlov's Dog, predicting the Browns to lose has provided me years of evidence that I can accurately see into the future.   In other words, in spite of some good signs provided last Sunday by our Browns, I am not quite ready to jump on the Browns Super Bowl bandwagon.

In what will likely be a hard fought defensive battle that comes down to the 4th quarter, I see the Ravens defense handling the Browns running game and putting pressure on Hoyer when he passes.  I also see the Ravens experience giving them an edge on offense.   The Browns D on numerous occasions used 7 defensive backs against the Saints, who lost the entire 1st quarter before they figured out a plan to counter punch.   I think the Ravens offense will be ready for all of the Browns potential curve balls and that resulting big plays will be the difference.

BL Predicts:

Ravens    24
Browns   17


The BL are 1-1 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

NFL fans: Just who really are the hypocrites???

NFL fans have been looking the other way for 30 years pretending we don't know players use steroids because while PED use is known to make humans significantly more violent, it also has raised the level of play in the NFL to spectacular levels. That we all express surprise when one of our robots blows up seems a bit naive. They've been detonating like dynamite for 30 years, it's just that social media now puts it in everyone's face so we can't ignore it

BL Predicts: Week 2 vs New Orleans - Showing your hand...

First, let us be clear about one thing:  we believe Mike Pettine is a good coach.  However he's not a miracle worker.   For the Browns to put up a winning season with yet another new coach, yet another round of dramatic player turnover and yet another offensive and defensive system is tantamount to asking for a miracle.

There were positive signs in the Browns season opening loss to the Steelers.  Foremost, Pettine seems to have chosen players that have a competitive edge and will fight for every yard.   If the Browns hang with Pettine for 5 years or more I think his leadership will pay off.   If…..

On the negative side, after a preseason of hiding many facets of their offense the Browns finally had to show their hand.   Their offense was effective in the second half against the Steelers as they were effective running the ball and passing off of play action.  Unfortunately, the Browns are not yet far enough along in Shanahan's offense.   I believe they pretty much showed everything they have against Pittsburgh.  Now that we've shown our hand, it won't be difficult for New Orleans to be fully prepared for whatever the Browns O can throw at them Sunday.

A lot of pundits see the Browns winning on Sunday.   Football is an emotional game and with a break or two anything can happen but what I foresee is a long day in store for our Brownies.   New Orleans has a very talented team but they were defeated in Atlanta by an extremely athletic group of receivers led by a top flight QB.   The Browns have neither and New Orleans will have a chip on their shoulder Sunday.

Look for an ugly day for our local hero's and another lesson for Jimmy Haslam in the price a team pays for nonstop turnover

BL Predicts

Browns         17
Saints            34

the BL are 1-0 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: 2014 Season opener vs Steelers. History & experience

History and experience are sufficient to foretell the result of tomorrow's season opener vs Mike Tomlin's Steelers.

Mike Tomlin is in his 8th year as head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Mike Pettine is in his 8th week of full time coaching of this team, the Cleveland Browns.

Since 2009, Tomlin, his staff and his key player leadership like Big Ben, have played a defense coached by Mike Pettine 6 times and their record against Pettine's teams is 5-1.   Tomorrow's Browns game therefore is old hat for them.  They know exactly what they have in store, they've been there before.   The Steelers week of preparation for the Browns has been about "refining" tactics of an existing plan to use their offense to attack Pettine's D.   Same story for Tomlin's defense.  They have a feeling for what they'll face against Kyle Shanahan because they've been there and done that.   

Meanwhile, Mr. Pettine and Mr. Shanahan have had to focus on teaching 53 players the basics of their own schemes.  

it promises to be yet another gloomy day in Browns history as we pay the price for constant turnover of management, coaches, players and playbooks.

BL Predicts:

Pittsburgh       24

Cleveland       13

It would be a positive development if NCAA Universities drop football

The other day, I heard an interview in which the President emeritus of Northwestern, Henry Bienen, made a not so veiled threat that if unions are permitted for college football players, Northwestern may drop football.  

I'd like to point out that under the right circumstances, should institutions of higher education drop football, it would be an extremely positive development for the vast majority of interests.  

First things first, our Congress would need to remove the NFL's anti trust exemption, thus allowing free market principals to rule.  Entrepreneurs and their capital, would then be free to create new professional football leagues that could replace the current university football system.  The result would be thousands of jobs that pay a solid wage to football players and team staffs who today participate in today's college athletic system.

Unions are needed for NCAA players because today players have absolutely no voice and it's clear that this fact is to their extreme detriment.  Football is a violent game that consumes bodies over time.  I remember in the not so distant past, a college football season was comprised of 10 games.  Next years playoff system means that some colleges will play up to 15 games.   That means more career ending injuries.  Adding more games over the years was done without a single player having a voice in that decision.

Today, the NCAA treats football players with disdain and disrespect.   Look at the price tag on the below Ohio State jersey with Terrell Pryor's number 2 on it.  This photo was taken at Christmas 2010 in a sporting goods store.  $80 and not a cent went to Terrell Pryor.  It's a joke.

When Michael Dell was a University student studying business and he started selling computers from his dorm room, nobody stopped him from profiting because he hadn't graduated.   It's obscene abuse for the NCAA to profit from athlete's images but prevent them from doing the same.  Why shouldn't Nike have been able to pay Johnny Football his millions while he still was playing at Texas A&M??

Should the NCAA continue to insist on perpetuating the current system of college athletics, I say let the schools get back to the business of educating students and let's permit the free market to provide us with additional options when it comes to football.   

Joe Banner - How to increase the bottom line by juggling the bottom of the roster.

To understand why Joe Banner cut players like JMJ and LJ Fort last year, one need only look at the below chart.

In 2013, the savings by using an undrafted rookie free agent making the minimum instead of a 3rd year player making the minimum was $140,000 per player.

There is a $75,000 savings by substituting a rookie free agent for a one year veteran who makes the league minimum.  

Before game 1 of the 2013 season, Banner cut veterans like Trevin Wade, Brandon Jackson, Kellen Davis, Brad Smelley, JMJ and LJ Fort in favor of a group of undrafted rookie free agents.  These cuts added over $1,000,000 to Jimmy Haslam's bottom line.

Wade went on to perform well for the playoff New Orleans Saints.   JMJ for the playoff Chiefs.  Both could have helped the Browns win instead of lose games like Jacksonville, where rookie free agent LB Darius Eubanks was abused vs the run or New England, where special teams and rookie play hurt the Browns badly.

Joe Banner is President of the Browns because he's very skilled at maximizing the bottom line through careful management of player selection.  Banner's view, supported by yes man Mike Lombardi, is that the bottom of roster players are spare parts, and one reason Chud is gone is that he did not buy into that system, especially over the course of the season as he witnessed the price the Browns paid for cutting quality second year and veteran players.

BL Predicts: Super Bowl 48 - A study in contrasts

Super Bowl 48 offers up a couple of interesting subplots with fascinating contrasts:

- A traditional pocket passer, perhaps the greatest in the history of the game, Peyton Manning, vs a new wave QB, Russell Wilson, who can gain yards with his arm or his legs.

- Denver's great offense vs Seattle's great defense.

I think the game will come down to experience vs inexperience.   Not a single player on the Seahawks has played in the pressure pot called the Super Bowl.   Denver isn't exactly loaded with Super Bowl experience either.  Only four of their players have been in the big game, but one is their leader, Peyton Manning.  No question, Manning understands what the Seahawks are trying to do on defense and will guide his teammates to exploit Seattle's holes.

In what may be the last championship won by a traditional pocket passer for a long time, look for the Bronco's and Peyton Manning to win by a comfortable margin over Seattle

BL Predicts

Denver        27
Seattle         14

The BL's 2013 season playoff prediction record is 7-3 to date.

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs, week 3 - Divisional Championships

New England at Denver

Peyton Manning and the Broncos will be ready for the Patriots, who are a far weaker team when playing on the road where it is much harder for Bill Belichick to steal opponents plays.  Without inside information, the weaknesses in the Patriots game emerge.   They are weak in particular in the defensive backfield and Peyton Manning will exploit those holes.   I see this game as a runaway win for the Broncos.  

Denver              35
New England     17


SF 49ers at Seattle

In what should be one of the best games of the season, two evenly matched teams will fight it out.   Both sport fantastic defenses and have offenses led by mobile quarterbacks.   Seattle should focus on establishing a passing game in order to open up the run.  Seattle was not able to pass very well against the Saints and a result the score was closer than it should have been.  The Seahawks must establish the air game against the 49ers if they're to have any chance of moving the ball on the ground.   Look for Russell Wilson to step up with a Pro Bowl caliber performance and Seattle will win by a thin margin

Seattle          24
SF 49ers      20

The BL were 2-2 last week and now have a 5-3 record in this season's NFL Playoff predictions.

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs - Week 2

The BL got off to a decent start last week, correctly predicting 3 out of 4 matches.    Only Andy Dalton and the Bengals let us down.  On to week 2 of sensational NFL playoff games!

New Orleans at Seattle

Home field advantage and Seattle's incredibly fast defense will make life hard on Drew Brees.   Russell Wilson proved last year that he knows how to step it up in big games.   Unless something unforeseen like a key injury takes place, Seattle has this game going away.

Seattle              27
New Orleans   17


Indianapolis Colts at New England

The X factor in this game may well be the Colts signing this week of former Patriots WR, Deion Branch, who played 89 games for the Patriots in his career.   Branch may not be completely up to speed with the cheating methods that Bill Belichick is employing this season but he should be able to give some insights to the Colts into how to avoid being victimized by Belichick's illegal schemes.   Leave no stone unturned is what the Colts were saying when they signed Branch and I like that.   The Pats are actually not a very talented team.  Their receivers are mediocre and their defense is horrendous but Tom Brady is a good QB and Bill Belichick knows how to find advantages for his team, be they legal or not.

Plain and simple, the Colts are a better team than the Pats and I see them overcoming all obstacles in their way on the road this weekend.

Colts           30
Pats             20


San Francisco at Carolina 

Many pundits are picking San Fran this weekend because they refuse to accept that Cam Newton is the most gifted QB in the entire NFL.   Why they have that viewpoint is baffling to me because all you have to do is watch to guy to see an arm like no other in the game together with leadership that is world class.   And he can run too, which in the NFL playoffs of 2014 is proving to be a necessary skill.   I love Harbaugh too, he's the best coach in the game but I think Cam will carry the Panthers on his back to the Conference finals.

Carolina          24
SF 49ers          23


San Diego at Denver

I was in the stands for the Bengals vs Chargers game last Sunday.   The Chargers didn't really beat the Bengals, I think the Bengals killed themselves.    Without Andy Dalton's turnovers the Chargers would have been in a battle for their lives.   Peyton Manning is "not" Andy Dalton and the Denver Broncos are not the Cincinnati Bengals.   San Diego is nothing more than a small obstacle in Peyton Manning's march to the Super Bowl.   Forget it SD, you're going home.

Denver         42
San Diego    17

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs - Week 1

As is now tradition, the BL will take aim at predicting the winners in the NFL playoffs each week.

This weeks games include:

KC Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts:  The Chiefs, under Andy Reid, dramatically improved their team this year and one key was playing Marty Schottenheimer football.    Control possession by running and short high percent passes.   Eat clock, don't turn the ball over and play rock solid D.   This is a proven winning formula but Marty proved that in the playoffs you have to be ready to roll the dice, or you risk losing.   I'm going with Andrew Luck and the Colts at home.

Colts   27
Chiefs 17

New Orleans at Philadelphia:  In one year, Chip Kelly proved the naysayers wrong and turned the Eagles around with his innovative offensive schemes and his focus on factors such as nutrition and conditioning.   His players responded with a division title.   The emergence of Nick Foles is also a major feather in Kelly's cap.  New Orleans however are a more talented and experienced team.  Playoff experience at QB is the major factor in favor of the Saints.  The Eagles fans will make it hard on Brees but  I think Drew Brees and his crew will be more than ready.  I'm going with the road team here

Saints    33
Eagles   27


San Diego at Cincinnati:   San Diego is the weakest team in the playoffs going against a very balanced Cincinnati team that hasn't lost at home all year.  I see the Bengals getting past San Diego in the cold harsh weather at home.

Bengals    20
Chargers  10


San Francisco at Green Bay:  I see this game as by far the hardest to predict.   First and foremast the forecast is for the "HIGH" temperature tomorrow to be -4 degrees.   The brutal cold makes it unlikely that we see a lot of offense so we're probably going to see a close game in which turnovers may be a key.   On paper, Green Bay barely snuck into the playoffs while SF were one of the strongest teams in the league, but Green Bay is a different team with Aaron Rodgers at QB.  The return of Rodgers at full strength is a major consideration.   On the other hand, I like San Fran's running game including the ability of their QB Colin Kaepernick to run the ball, and I think the Niners have the best coach in the NFL.   Flip a coin here but I'm going to bet that Kaepernick will avoid mistakes and make a few big plays on the ground and the 49ers are going to squeak by the Pack.

49ers     13
Packers  10

BL Predicts: Game 16 Browns vs Steelers

Not much analysis needed this week, as the Browns close out yet another losing season.

- Browns are on the road and have nothing to play for other than perhaps a better position in the draft.

- Steelers are fighting for yet another playoff birth.

- Browns are quite banged up with numerous key players either out or at risk of missing this weeks game.


BL Predicts:

Steelers      31
Browns      17


The BL are 10-5 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 15 vs Jets

Yet another losing season for the Cleveland Browns is winding up.  All we are left to reflect on is that the Browns keep losing year after year after year.

It torture to think about this but last year the Kansas City Chiefs won 1 game and they are now one of the best teams in the AFC.  The Philadelphia Eagles last year won 4 games and now they're in the playoff hunt.  Our Browns won 5 games last year and they'll be lucky to tie that total this year.

Our best chance to get back to the magical 5 win total is Sunday against the Jets.   Hard game to predict because the Jets aren't all that much better than Cleveland.  But the Browns are on the road, banged up, and coming off a series of extremely deflating defeats.

I could see Josh Gordon having a huge game and it's not that far fetched to imagine Geno Smith giving Cleveland a few intercepts.   But winning on the road is hard, especially without Jordan Cameron and possibly without Joe Haden.

I'm going with the home team this week.

BL Predicts:

Jets 23
Browns 16


The BL are 9-5 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Game 14 vs 'da Bears

For 58 minutes last week, the Brown Log was the only prognosticator on earth that had correctly foreseen a Browns victory over the New England Patriots.   Then fate, game fixing referees, and God knows what else, intervened, allowing New England to walk off the field of play with a victory they did not earn.  The Brown Log have consistently out predicted the experts this year and if we'd have nailed that one, it would have been sweet.   In any case, our 9-4 record predicting Browns games this year still beat all of the experts.

This week our Browns return home to take on the Chicago Bears, who find themselves in a fight for the playoffs.

Emotionally, the Bears have an edge, no question about it.   The Browns are coming off a series of extremely deflating losses topped off by the unimaginable defeat last week.

On the plus side for Cleveland:

- This is a home game and will be played in brutally cold weather which will tighten up players on both sides of the ball.

- The Bears have a QB controversy.  Jay Cutler will be under center for Chicago Sunday.  If he's 100% he's an able NFL QB but both fans and perhaps his own teammates lack confidence in Cutler.

- Josh Gordon is emerging as a superstar wideout of the kind not seen since the days of Jerry Rice.   Jason Campbell and Brandon Weeden both know that Gordon is the kind of player who can make a QB look like a genius.   Gordon's presence is bound to open up opportunity for the rest of the Brown's O too as the Bears would be fools not to double Gordon all day long.

- Aging veteran running back Willis McGahee is out Sunday.   McGahee has been a real trooper this year.  He shows up every Sunday, works hard, runs hard and does not fumble but his knees just can't do what his courage and mind want to.  McGahee has been a net liability all year.   Perhaps Chris Obannaya or Fozzy Whittaker can step up now once given a chance.

Once again this week all of the pundits are going with 'da Bears.  The Brown Log respectfully disagree

BL Predicts

Browns 20
Bears    17

The BL are 9-4 year to date predicting Browns games.