BL Predicts: Week 5 vs Bills

Earlier this season my philosophy on picking Browns games this year was that I could achieve the best possible record of success by simply predicting the Browns would lose every week.   With Brandon Weeden at the controls, my record was in fact spotless.   However under the leadership of Brian Hoyer our Browns are indeed a completely different squad.

Hoyer's leadership, his ability to read defenses has led him to make decisive decisions and the passes he's throw have been surprisingly accurate with the right touch just about every time.   By leading long clock eating drives, it's also helped Ray Horton's defense emerge as a dominant force.  This is not any longer a bad team.   Even the trade of Trent Richardson seems to have hurt the Browns far less than anticipated.

Today we face a Bills team with a great defense however we also face a rookier QB in EJ Manuel.  Look for the Brownies to take advantage of Manuel's lack of experience on one or two key plays and look for Hoyer to keep leading his teammates to victory.

BL Predicts

Browns   20
Bills        10

The BL are 2-2 year to date

BL Predicts: Week 4 vs Cincinnati Bengals

The Browns have resolved a major issue by replacing Brandon Weeden with Brian Hoyer.   Weeden flat out lacks the vision, leadership and skill to be an NFL quarterback.  Watching Brian Hoyer play Sunday against Minnesota made it clear that Weeden is the worst QB to take the field for the Browns this century.

That stated, let's not get carried away.   Hoyer's tangible skills are quite average for an NFL QB.   He's not elusive, nor does he have anywhere near Weeden's rifle arm.  What Hoyer does possess are leadership skills that are top notch.  Unlike Weeden, Hoyer has the capacity to see the 11 defenders on the field of play and make the correct reads quickly.  Finally, Hoyer can place a football accurately if passing within his range.  

With the trade of Trent Richardson the Browns have no running game.   That will be a real issue against the Bengals.

On defense, the Browns front 7 take a backseat to nobody in the NFL.  That means our Browns can shut down the running game and pressure a QB.   That takes pressure off a mediocre defensive backfield.  The Bengals however have talent everywhere on offensive and an above average QB who takes what the defense gives him and doesn't hurt his team with slow or poor decision making.   Andy Dalton will absorb some blows from the Browns defense but he'll eventually find holes as the game progresses and put up points.

Last week we faced a Minnesota team that had several defensive backs injured and were not able to make adjustments to take out Josh Gordon.  The Bengals have depth and talent on defense and furthermore have a week of film of both Gordon and Hoyer.

It'll be back to reality this week against the Bengals who have too much talent for our Brownies.   I see Hoyer and his teammates battling and putting up a good fight but the Bengals will eventually wear them down.

BL Predicts:

Browns 21
Bengals 31

The BL are 2-1 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 3 vs Minnesota Vikings

I have to confess that up until Wednesday evening, I was seriously pondering the possibility of predicting a Browns victory Sunday in Minnesota.   Then the NFL and Browns fans around the world were rocked by the stunning trade of Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts.

Football is an emotional game.   More than any other sport an emotional edge can help a team sustain a winning effort on any given Sunday.   I believed that the entrance of Brian Hoyer this week as the Browns QB might give our Browns a boost.  Hoyer is a rather mediocre QB, which in my view places him well ahead of the disastrous Brandon Weeden.  However what I really like about Hoyer is the strong leadership he displays.   Hoyer knows how to create intensity with his teammates, something that Brandon Weeden has no idea how to generate.    How does Hoyer do it?   By decisiveness about how each play needs to be executed, enthusiasm and directness in the huddle and sacrifice and courage on the field of play.   Weeden is often confused instead of decisive, monotone as opposed to enthusiastic, and visibly afraid.

With a boost from Hoyer on top of a Ray Horton led defense that is playing very well, I believed the Browns could win in Minnesota.   However the Richardson trade has thrown a shadow of doubt over everything.   By far the worst element in this fiasco was the fact that the Browns organization, led by President Joe Banner, did not have the courage, discipline and class to inform Richardson he was traded.   Instead, Trent found out by listening to the radio.   I have run a large organization and always made it a matter of pride to deal directly and forthrightly with difficult matters.   This builds trust and motivation.

No matter how it is spun, when leadership in an organization avoids delivering difficult messages to it's employees, those employees lose motivation and commitment because they don't trust the people who lead them.

Our Browns players are professionals and many of our leading players have great character, but emotion is a fuel that can add passion or take it away.  I am convinced that because our Browns are led by players like D'Qwell Jackson and now Brian Hoyer, they will start out Sunday with motivation however faced with a hostile crowd and coming off a draining week noted by a serious erosion of trust by Joe Banner, that motivation will dissolve as the game progresses.

I believe that the Browns will start off very well against the Vikings, but will not be able to sustain that intensity and we are going to lose a very close one Sunday in Minneapolis.

BL Predicts

Browns       13
Vikings       17


The BL are 2-0 year to date on the prognostication front.

Jimmy Haslam: NFL's beloved crook

Jimmy "the weasel" Haslam is squeezing money out of Our Browns that he needs badly to defend himself from numerous civil cases and probable pending criminal charges with Pilot Flying J.  Whether or not Haslam is charged by the FBI remains to be seen but it's already conceded by Haslam that his company cheated truckers out of rebates. Since Haslam is CEO of the company, if he was unaware of the fraud going on in his company, he's a fool. Sincerely speaking, Haslam strikes me as a lot of things, but a fool is not one of them.

If Haslam were a player and robbed a truck driver of a few hundred dollars, he'd already be out of the NFL because the league has shown that it will harshly discipline all players embroiled in any legal controversy.   However Haslam's company robbed truck drivers in a white collar crime, something NFL owners feel much more empathy for.  For proof that the NFL owners support Haslam and his businesses criminal acts look no further than their pledges of loyalty and support. Insider old boy club called NFL could not give a crap about Browns fans.

another shady Haslam deal

Here's a bit of news we had no idea about.  Haslam's ties to a murky investment in Louisiana to truckstops with gambling that ended in bankruptcy for the primary investor.  

Who is the real villain?   The NFL, for allowing this shady character to purchase our Browns.

Speechless

The Browns trade Trent Richardson to Indy for a late first round pick??

Speechless.

After one day however it's hard not to wonder if the Browns haven't dumped Richardson because Browns owner Jimmy Haslam needs cash due to his criminal issues at Pilot Flying J.   The prestigious Forbes magazine wondered the same in this article.

Brian Hoyer to start

Maybe there is yet hope for the 2013 season in Cleveland.  Chud announced today that Brian Hoyer will start game 3 in Minnesota.

There are two things we have seen thus far this season:

1.  The game still has not slowed down for Brandon Weeden.  To quote ex Browns head coach Sam Rutigliano, "Weeden still seems to see the defense like it's Times Square on New Years eve."  I have watched both Browns games several times and the theme that continues to emerge is that Weeden almost always waits until a receiver comes wide open before he's willing to pull the trigger.   This is why Weeden's passing metrics in the red zone were horrible last season and it's why neither Norv Turner's vertical passing game nor the shotgun formation will magically transform Weeden into a star.

2.  Our defense is legit.   If you don't give up points you can't lose.  Of course, the Browns D has given up a few points this year and the team has lost.   But a closer look shows that the Browns D has gotten weaker in the second half as Weeden led "drives" stall out over and over again and our D is on the field far more than opponents.

The bottom line:  If Cleveland simply had a mediocre QB instead of a below average QB, with our outstanding defense, this team could rack up a decent run of winning.

Brian Hoyer looked very good against the Bears in the preseason.   Of course it's true that the Bears were playing second team players and vanilla defensive formations however my evaluation of Hoyer against Chicago is strictly on his soft skills.

Hoyer played with an intensity required of an NFL QB, he showed non stop leadership which was in stark contrast to the "deer in the headlights" look that Weeden often has.   Football is an emotional game and a QB that understands how to tap into those emotional levers can drive performance of his team.   Finally it's true that Hoyer has nothing near to Weeden's arm however, Hoyer was able to throw the ball accurately to players in traffic, something Weeden either cannot do or is not willing to do.

Look for the Browns to give Minnesota all they can handle this Sunday and barring injury to Hoyer, look for Weeden to have taken his last snap as a Cleveland Brown.

BL Predicts: Week 2 vs Baltimore

The Brown Log start week 2 of our season of predictions ahead of 100% of the local Cleveland pundits because nobody and I do mean nobody predicted a Browns loss except for us.

What is astonishing about this fact is that we felt it was obvious the Brownies were going to get their asses handed to them by the Dolphins.   If nothing else, Browns fans are eternal optimists.

A detached analysis of the facts is better than emotion when trying to prognosticate.  In that spirit let's take a look at week 2.

A reminder should be made right now.  The Baltimore Ravens, as painful as it is to say it, are the defending Super Bowl champions.   They lost Ray Lewis to retirement and Ed Reed to free agency along with a few role players like Browns linebacker Paul Kruger but the core of the team is intact and Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome has a strong history of bringing in new talent that can stand out.

A second reminder can also be made.   The Browns stink and this week they play on the road where even good teams usually lose.

Upsets do happen in the NFL.  Sometimes a great gameplan can compensate a gap in talent or sometimes your opponents star player simply has a bad day.    I see none of the pre conditions for an upset.   Chud and Norv Turner are still struggling to get their hands around this team and the emotional edge rests firmly with Baltimore.  If anything the Browns players are demotivated by the big loss last Sunday and further by the fact that Joe Banner and Mike Lombardi let go of so many talented players before week 1.

The Ravens will be motivated even more by the fact that this is their home opener.  The BL see Baltimore delivering their fans a W and Sunday looks to be another very long painful day for our Browns.

BL Predicts:   Ravens by 3 touchdowns

Ravens 31
Browns 10

The BL are 1-0 year to date on the prediction front.

Why neither Norv Turner's vertical scheme nor the shotgun formation will make Brandon Weeden a Superstar

Both Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill are second year quarterbacks in the NFL.  Both are viewed as mediocre however a closer look at the Browns Dolphins game today reveals one important difference.   An NFL QB must be able to anticipate when a receiver is coming open and be capable to accurately thread the needle to complete a pass.

Tannehill has enough field vision, anticipation and accuracy to throw passes in traffic.   A good example of this capability is the below pass by Tannehill to #42 Charles Clay.  Clay has a linebacker on his back but Tannehill knows that Robertson is not going to be able to make a play on the ball if he locates his pass accurately.   Watch today's game closely, outside of the red zone Weeden did not attempt a single pass to a receiver in traffic.   This is one reason that Weeden was hit 16 times today.  It was obvious on many occasions that Weeden held the ball longer than designed, while he waited for defensive coverage to break down so he had an open shot at a receiver.

It's difficult for an NFL QB to improve his field vision, even with experience.  The ability to see a player come open, is a God given gift and Weeden doesn't have it.

BL Predicts: Week 1 vs Miami Dolphins

Many Browns fans are filled with optimism as the 2013 season approaches because the Browns coaching staff appears to be, for the first time in ages, a legitimate staff with a reasonable strategy.  That's probably true however last time I checked, talent rules the day in the NFL and our Browns are a team full of holes in their lineup.

It's true that the home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL but I don't see the home field being enough of an advantage for Cleveland.   Look for the Dolphins to overwhelm the Browns with talent, taking special advantage of the lack of depth that the Browns have in the defensive backfield, to break numerous big plays.   On offense the Dolphins should be able to take advantage of 3rd string RG Oniel Cousins, a player who has no business starting in the NFL.  By beating Cousins  the Dolphins can put enough pressure on Weeden to get him panicking and also help limit the damage Richardson can do on the ground.

I hope I'm wrong but on paper it sure promises to be a long day for the Browns.

BL Predicts

Dolphins 31
Browns  17

Half empty or half full

The pre season is finished and once again many Browns fans out there are optimistic about the prospects for our Browns in 2013.  Why do fans see the glass as being half full you ask?   Beats me because if we look at the facts 2013 promises to be as dreadful a year as any in the last decade.

Let's stack up just a few:

- in the opening game our right guard is Oniel Cousins.   Mr. Cousins is not an NFL quality player and since this is a game of 11 offensive players against 11 defenders, it's already a major disadvantage to have one player that the defense can dominate.

- Our starting right cornerback Buster Skrines, is not a very good NFL player.   He will be eaten alive by opposing QBs.

- The Browns personnel office, led by Mike Lombardi is currently scouring the waiver wires to try to find a place kicker... uh, one week before the start of the NFL season.   I don't get why Browns fans are not in a panic about that bit of horrible planning.

- The Browns personnel office, led by Mike Lombardi is currently scouring the NFL waiver wires looking for key position players to help us at cornerback, right guard and free safety.  That means that other NFL team's rejects will be contributors on the Browns.

- As of today our Browns have 5 undrafted free agents who made the 53 man roster.  Chud calls this a "great job by the scouting staff."   Others might call it desperation driven by the fact that we do not have enough talent on the team.

Ask yourselves how many undrafted players in the history of the NFL have made the Canton Hall of Fame or even the Pro Bowl.   The answer is an extraordinarily low percentage.   Does that mean Josh Aubrey or others won't be any good.  No it does not, it just means that the percentages tell us they probably will not.  Factor in Mike Lombardi's 20 year track year on picking talent and the odds get even lower. Even when skilled personnel execs are choosing the players, it's high draft picks that tend to become stars for NFL teams not undrafted free agents.

Do I think the Browns are going to win 7 to 9 games this year like most of the local journalists do?  Just remember those writers who state the Browns will win 8 games all are worried about getting press access to the team.  I could care less if Joe Banner ever talks to me and so I'll predict 1-4 wins in 2013 is much more likely to be the outcome for our Browns
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Criminal Collecting Cards

In a new feature, designed to help fans keep up with the off field exploits of Cleveland Browns associates, The Brown Log are proud to introduce Criminal Collecting Cards.

Our first associate featured is defender Desmond Bryant:

The NFL: White collar crime is ok?

It's a well known fact that 27 NFL players have been arrested in 2013 for various crimes including Aaron Hernandez' arrest for murder.   Generally the reaction of the league and it's franchises has been swift.  Cut ties with players, period.

When Jimmy Haslam is indicted for fraud, does anyone think the league will react with similar pragmatism?   Doubtful.  The old boys club stays together and Haslam is a paid in full member of the old boys club.   The fact that the accusations against Haslam translate into his taking money from the pockets of millions of truckers means little or nothing to the NFL.