BL Predicts: Week 2 vs Baltimore

The Brown Log start week 2 of our season of predictions ahead of 100% of the local Cleveland pundits because nobody and I do mean nobody predicted a Browns loss except for us.

What is astonishing about this fact is that we felt it was obvious the Brownies were going to get their asses handed to them by the Dolphins.   If nothing else, Browns fans are eternal optimists.

A detached analysis of the facts is better than emotion when trying to prognosticate.  In that spirit let's take a look at week 2.

A reminder should be made right now.  The Baltimore Ravens, as painful as it is to say it, are the defending Super Bowl champions.   They lost Ray Lewis to retirement and Ed Reed to free agency along with a few role players like Browns linebacker Paul Kruger but the core of the team is intact and Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome has a strong history of bringing in new talent that can stand out.

A second reminder can also be made.   The Browns stink and this week they play on the road where even good teams usually lose.

Upsets do happen in the NFL.  Sometimes a great gameplan can compensate a gap in talent or sometimes your opponents star player simply has a bad day.    I see none of the pre conditions for an upset.   Chud and Norv Turner are still struggling to get their hands around this team and the emotional edge rests firmly with Baltimore.  If anything the Browns players are demotivated by the big loss last Sunday and further by the fact that Joe Banner and Mike Lombardi let go of so many talented players before week 1.

The Ravens will be motivated even more by the fact that this is their home opener.  The BL see Baltimore delivering their fans a W and Sunday looks to be another very long painful day for our Browns.

BL Predicts:   Ravens by 3 touchdowns

Ravens 31
Browns 10

The BL are 1-0 year to date on the prediction front.

Why neither Norv Turner's vertical scheme nor the shotgun formation will make Brandon Weeden a Superstar

Both Brandon Weeden and Ryan Tannehill are second year quarterbacks in the NFL.  Both are viewed as mediocre however a closer look at the Browns Dolphins game today reveals one important difference.   An NFL QB must be able to anticipate when a receiver is coming open and be capable to accurately thread the needle to complete a pass.

Tannehill has enough field vision, anticipation and accuracy to throw passes in traffic.   A good example of this capability is the below pass by Tannehill to #42 Charles Clay.  Clay has a linebacker on his back but Tannehill knows that Robertson is not going to be able to make a play on the ball if he locates his pass accurately.   Watch today's game closely, outside of the red zone Weeden did not attempt a single pass to a receiver in traffic.   This is one reason that Weeden was hit 16 times today.  It was obvious on many occasions that Weeden held the ball longer than designed, while he waited for defensive coverage to break down so he had an open shot at a receiver.

It's difficult for an NFL QB to improve his field vision, even with experience.  The ability to see a player come open, is a God given gift and Weeden doesn't have it.

BL Predicts: Week 1 vs Miami Dolphins

Many Browns fans are filled with optimism as the 2013 season approaches because the Browns coaching staff appears to be, for the first time in ages, a legitimate staff with a reasonable strategy.  That's probably true however last time I checked, talent rules the day in the NFL and our Browns are a team full of holes in their lineup.

It's true that the home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL but I don't see the home field being enough of an advantage for Cleveland.   Look for the Dolphins to overwhelm the Browns with talent, taking special advantage of the lack of depth that the Browns have in the defensive backfield, to break numerous big plays.   On offense the Dolphins should be able to take advantage of 3rd string RG Oniel Cousins, a player who has no business starting in the NFL.  By beating Cousins  the Dolphins can put enough pressure on Weeden to get him panicking and also help limit the damage Richardson can do on the ground.

I hope I'm wrong but on paper it sure promises to be a long day for the Browns.

BL Predicts

Dolphins 31
Browns  17

Half empty or half full

The pre season is finished and once again many Browns fans out there are optimistic about the prospects for our Browns in 2013.  Why do fans see the glass as being half full you ask?   Beats me because if we look at the facts 2013 promises to be as dreadful a year as any in the last decade.

Let's stack up just a few:

- in the opening game our right guard is Oniel Cousins.   Mr. Cousins is not an NFL quality player and since this is a game of 11 offensive players against 11 defenders, it's already a major disadvantage to have one player that the defense can dominate.

- Our starting right cornerback Buster Skrines, is not a very good NFL player.   He will be eaten alive by opposing QBs.

- The Browns personnel office, led by Mike Lombardi is currently scouring the waiver wires to try to find a place kicker... uh, one week before the start of the NFL season.   I don't get why Browns fans are not in a panic about that bit of horrible planning.

- The Browns personnel office, led by Mike Lombardi is currently scouring the NFL waiver wires looking for key position players to help us at cornerback, right guard and free safety.  That means that other NFL team's rejects will be contributors on the Browns.

- As of today our Browns have 5 undrafted free agents who made the 53 man roster.  Chud calls this a "great job by the scouting staff."   Others might call it desperation driven by the fact that we do not have enough talent on the team.

Ask yourselves how many undrafted players in the history of the NFL have made the Canton Hall of Fame or even the Pro Bowl.   The answer is an extraordinarily low percentage.   Does that mean Josh Aubrey or others won't be any good.  No it does not, it just means that the percentages tell us they probably will not.  Factor in Mike Lombardi's 20 year track year on picking talent and the odds get even lower. Even when skilled personnel execs are choosing the players, it's high draft picks that tend to become stars for NFL teams not undrafted free agents.

Do I think the Browns are going to win 7 to 9 games this year like most of the local journalists do?  Just remember those writers who state the Browns will win 8 games all are worried about getting press access to the team.  I could care less if Joe Banner ever talks to me and so I'll predict 1-4 wins in 2013 is much more likely to be the outcome for our Browns
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Criminal Collecting Cards

In a new feature, designed to help fans keep up with the off field exploits of Cleveland Browns associates, The Brown Log are proud to introduce Criminal Collecting Cards.

Our first associate featured is defender Desmond Bryant:

The NFL: White collar crime is ok?

It's a well known fact that 27 NFL players have been arrested in 2013 for various crimes including Aaron Hernandez' arrest for murder.   Generally the reaction of the league and it's franchises has been swift.  Cut ties with players, period.

When Jimmy Haslam is indicted for fraud, does anyone think the league will react with similar pragmatism?   Doubtful.  The old boys club stays together and Haslam is a paid in full member of the old boys club.   The fact that the accusations against Haslam translate into his taking money from the pockets of millions of truckers means little or nothing to the NFL.  

Jim Brown and trust

There is no question that Brown's great Jim Brown has earned the trust of Northern Ohio.

By signing Brown to an official role with the Cleveland Browns, Jimmy Haslam hopes to achieve 2 things:

1.  Change the subject in the local community from his legal woes to football.
2.  Transfer some of Jim Brown's trust with the community, earned over the last 50 years to Jim Haslam.

In the press conference in any case, questions about Haslam's legal woes came up, much to the chagrin of Mr. Haslam who would like that we ignore that ominous cloud hanging over OUR team.  I'd argue that the only way Haslam will gain the trust of the local community is first to get through his legal battles with the FBI and come out the other side clean and second, by winning NFL games.

Jim Brown joining the team is certainly good news, but Haslam's still the owner.  After a week in which Haslam fired over 1200 Cleveland based employees of Tenable Protective Services and replaced them with a company from Pennsylvania, my guess is that in spite of the hiring of Jim Brown, Jimmy Haslam on net, lost ground with Cleveland fans this week.

More bad news for the Browns and Jimmy Haslam

Two employees of Pilot Flying J have pleaded guilty and revealed further details of the criminal rebate fraud allegedly perpetrated for years by Pilot Flying J.

Haslam continues to state that he had no knowledge of how his company was defrauding customers of millions of dollars day to day.

If looks could kill

Here's a photo of Jimmy Haslam snapped at Pilot Flying J headquarters in the hallway outside a conference room where Haslam was to give a briefing on the Pilot Flying J scandal.  Clearly the photographer did not have permission to be taking a photo outside the meeting room and ole' Jimmy was not the least bit pleased that this breach was taking place.

Meanwhile this week Haslam looked to Brown's great Jim Brown hoping that the trust and goodwill Brown was in the community might rub off.   My favorite summary of that press conference comes from the Plain Dealer's Bud Shaw who wrote the following:

Browns dump Locally owned Tenable Protective Services

Details are beginning to emerge today via social media that the Cleveland Browns have dumped locally owned Tenable Protective services in favor of a Philadelphia based supplier.   According to sources 1100 full time local positions are at risk.  My guess is that the Philadelphia based service will rehire many of the Tenable employees, albeit at a lower salary.

This is a bad sign the new owner is focused on profit and furthermore his legal troubles may be forcing him to squeeze cash from all available sources.

We will be monitoring this breaking story.


From a FACEBOOK post made today:

Class Action Lawsuits: 7 Browns Ownership: 0

In what may be a foreshadowing of the upcoming Browns season, there are now 7 class action lawsuits against the Browns Owner, Jim Haslam and to date the best Haslam has come up with to manage the situation is a bit of a Hail Mary.   It appears that Haslam's opponents (formerly known as his customers) are piling on class action lawsuits against Pilot Flying J.   Haslam may be mired in legal issues for years, which will leave the dream team of Joe Banner and Mike Lombardi to manage the Browns......

Browns draft grade

Haslam legal troubles

Great article by the Nashville Scene on Haslam.
Bottom line is that Haslam had to know about the rebate fraud in his company.

A key snippet below: