BL Predicts: Week 5 vs the reigning Super Bowl champs

Nobody, and I do mean nobody, is predicting a Browns victory this Sunday against the reigning Super Bowl champion Giants.  








With the Brown Log proudly boasting a perfect 4-0 record this season in game predictions, perhaps we're feeling a bit cocky and ready to go with our guts on this one.   I can't put my finger on it but something tells me that the Browns are going to win.

Some random thoughts as to why I feel that way:

- The Giants are fairly dinged up with minor but nagging injuries.
- The Browns are more rested than New York, coming off a Thursday game on September 27th.

Perhaps the reason for my belief that the Browns can win this one comes from some pre game statements by Trent Richardson, who is looking to spark his teammates.  Football is an emotional game and young Mr. Richardson has upped the ante this week but stating that he believes he can be successful against the Giants D.

I look for the Browns to surprise New York with some plays that go against their tendencies season to date, jump to an early lead, then continue to hang on for a surprise victory.  

BL Predicts
Browns 23
Giants 17

The Brown Log are 4-0 this season in predicting the outcome of Browns games.

Finally, an honest athlete:

I imagine the NCAA will come down quite hard on young Cardale Jones. After all he's doing damage to the reputation of college athletics. This as we know is, in the eyes of the NCAA, a sin greater than any other.

We're number one!

All is not lost Browns fans, we do have the pole position in one statistical category: dropped passes.  

NFL Leader board:  dropped passes

Brandon Weeden (17)

Drew Brees (16)

Matt Stafford (16)

Aaron Rodgers (14)

Peyton Manning (14)

We're number 32!!

This weeks ranking by Sports Illustrated of the NFL's 32 teams has our Browns once again ranked in the basement:

Here's a quote from the New York press

"Cleveland is one of the worst teams in the league by just about any metric you want to use to judge a football team's performance"

That about sums it up...

BL Predicts: Week 4 Browns vs Ravens

Tonights game promises nothing less than a complete dismantling of our Browns by the Ravens. 

Browns   14

Ravens    34

The Brown Log are 3-0 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games.

Unbelievably bad call

There is only one solution to the owner's lockout of NFL referees. Don't watch another game until owners get the real refs back.

BL Predicts: Week 3 vs Buffalo

This weeks match vs. Buffalo might be the hardest to predict all season, especially for a die hard Browns fan.   It is early in the season and still difficult to know if the Browns or Bills are truly competitive NFL teams.  This game will tell us a lot about what kind of season our Browns are going to have because the Bills on paper appear to be beatable, especially in our home stadium.   Are we going to have a shot at a competitive season with 7 or 8 wins or is this team yet another 3 to 5 win loser.

I hope I am wrong but the following factors lead me to conclude today will be another loss for our Cleveland Browns:

1.  Joe Haden's suspension has badly exposed the Browns secondary.   Ryan Fitzpatrick is not a top tier QB but he is capable enough to do damage against mediocre defenders.   Losing Haden really opens the Browns up to getting beat on a few key plays.

2.  Chan Gailey plays "Marty Schottenheimer football", in other words, he works the clock by running the ball and his teams are coached to not make mistakes.  The Bills will likely not have many turnovers and penalties.   In the regular season what that translates to is wins, especially against teams like the Browns who are loaded with young players and tend towards mistakes.

3.  Bills DE Mario Williams is a force in the pass rush and is bound to put more pressure on Brandon Weeden than the Bengals did.  Weeden had a good game against Cincinnati but his pass protection was quite good.  Nobody had a clean hard shot at Weeden last week, that might change this week leading to a turnover or lower completion rate.

4.  Browns rookies are going to face more pressure against Buffalo than they did against Cincinnati.  I believe the game will be decided on turnovers and penalities and having so many rookies will be a distinct disadvantage today for our Browns.

5.  Finally, I am convinced that our new owner, Jim Haslam is going to be a great owner but something most folks are not talking about is the fact that the entire management team has to be feeling like lame ducks.  Haslam himself is sending some signals that heads are going to roll and it would be naive to think that everyone in the Browns operation is not feeling this.  Folks are going to be distracted, and since they are human beings with families to feed, they are also going to be spending some of their time reaching into their networks to see what job opportunities might be out there.   Right now this might only dilute the teams concentration by a very small amount but football is a game of inches and every inch counts.   In a small way he is helping a self fulfilling prophecy in 2012 of losing football.

BL Predicts:

Buffalo Bills 20
Cleveland Browns 17

The Brown Log are 2-0 year to date on the prediction front.

What a relief!

Only a Brown's fan could take solace from a loss such as today's setback in Cincinnati. However it is an immense relief to see both Weeden and Richardson play well against the Bengals.

BL Predicts: Week 2 Cleveland vs Cincinnati

In what is shaping up to be an easy season to predict Brown's games, Sunday's matchup in Cincinnati looks clearly like a pending disaster for our Brownies. The book is out on Brandon Weeden, pressure him even a little bit and his skills vaporize. Trent Richardson needs a few more games before he can even think about carrying the team and oh yeah, we've lost Joe Haden for four weeks.

Week 2 holds little hope of a Brown's win. The Bengals will be ready and the Browns won't.

Bengals 27
Browns 14

 The Brown Log are 1-0 year to date on the prognostication front.

Hindsight is 20/20

Here's an interesting analysis of Brandon Weeden's college performance at Oklahoma State when his pass protection broke down. What is very noticeable so far about Weeden is that his performance drops dramatically when put under even minimal pressure. He has no feel for moving around in the pocket to buy time. The Brown's entire season, not to mention Pat Shurmur's future, hinges on whether or not the coaching staff can teach Weeden how to manage and react under pressure. Can Weeden unlearn "fear"?? Maybe but it is dubious to think that he can be reprogrammed in days or even weeks.

Brandon Weeden's passer rating is 5.1

Under the most generous of interpretations, Brandon Weeden had a rookie debut for the ages, the ice ages. 4 interceptions, a 34% completion percentage and two fumbles. Astonishingly, the Browns offensive line actually gave quite good protection to their rookie QB.

Even factoring in dropped passes doesn't help much because the Eagles blew chances to intercept two other Weeden throws. Weeden looked at times like he was blind, launching numerous passes that came nowhere near the intended target. Is Weeden simply out of sync with his West Coast receivers? I hope so because the alternative would be that he simply is inaccurate. If however Weeden and his receivers are in fact still making different reads in the west coast scheme, much blame falls on coach Shurmur for not giving Weeden more reps in the preseason.

No matter how you roll it up, this was a very bad day for Brandon Weeden and the Browns.

BL predicts: week 1 vs Eagles

Eagles 31
Browns 16