BL Predicts: Game 11 vs Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL fans have been predicting the decline of the Steelers since the beginning of the 2013 season and in fact the Steelers started off 2013 with 4 consecutive losses.  However forecasts of doom for the Steelers may have been premature, because since that 0-4 start, the Steelers are actually playing good football and have won 4 of 6 games.   Big Ben once again is playing at Pro Bowl levels and Antonio Brown is his favorite target.   The Steelers offense has been formidable in this 6 game stretch, averaging nearly 23 points per game.

Our Browns on the other hand have a world class defense together with an offense that needs help at nearly every position.   Most disturbing is the Browns utter inability to run the football.  A few weeks ago for instance, the Browns cut Bobby Rainey, who could barely gain 3 yards per carry in Cleveland and for the last few weeks in Tampa Bay, he's looked like a Pro Bowler, reeling off 2 strong games, including a 30 carries for 163 yard performance last week.   The Browns offensive line, simply cannot open holes in the running game, and even if you could reincarnate Jim Thorpe, you'd have a problem getting 4 yards per carry with this line.  

Jason Campbell is a credible NFL backup, but with 3 full games of film, NFL teams are quickly getting reacquainted with his strengths and weaknesses.   Keep Campbell in the pocket and your odds of beating him go up.

I believe in the advantage of playing on the home turf but that has to be coupled with all of the other factors.   Weather will likely be cold and difficult Sunday in Cleveland, adding import to the running game.   The running game is something decisively in the Steelers favor.

Look for a low scoring affair in which the Browns D holds Big Ben and crew to 20 points but the Browns offense will perform well below their own low potential.  A few key plays by Big Ben should turn the tide for the Steelers.  This game should mark the official end of all hope for Browns fans in 2013 so now we can focus our attention on who it is Mike Lombardi will draft in 2014 to finally save our Browns and bring us to the promised land. 

BL Predicts

Steelers 20

Browns 10

The BL are 7-3 year to date predicting the winner of Browns games. 

BL Predicts: Game 10 vs Bengals

Does it seem too good to be true that if the Browns were to win this week, they would find themselves in the drivers seat to gain a playoff spot?  Yes it does seem too good to be true and therefore I will be shocked if the Browns can pull out a win against the Bengals this week.

First let's remember that the home team wins on average 58% of the time in the NFL.   The Bengals are 4-0 at home this year while our Browns are 1-3 on the road.   Weather also promises to be a factor, limiting both teams ability to complete longer passes downfield and raising the importance of the running game.

Beyond that however, I see the Browns losing on Sunday though for one major reason.   Jason Campbell now has two full games under his belt which gives ample game film to the Bengals so they can scheme defensively to counter those aspects of the passing game in which Campbell has been outstanding in his two starts.   In the win against the Ravens, Campbell was consistently able to feel and move around in the pocket buying time that he used to complete numerous short touch passes to his receivers at critical moments against the Ravens.   Those passes led to the Browns win.   A deeper look at the metrics verify this.    75% of Campbell's passes this season have been thrown less than 10 yards in the air, and he's done just about ALL of his damage with those passes.

Look for the Bengals to work very hard to keep Campbell in the pocket and for the Bengals to focus their pass defenders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.   The Bengals will give Campbell some different looks, and try to slow him down.    If the Bengals can slow Campbell down early and force the Browns to try to run the ball, suddenly our resurgent Brownies will look very beatable once again.

A Jason Campbell focused defensive game plan combined with the home crowd advantage should be more than enough to drive yet another dagger into Browns fans hearts.   

BL Predicts

Bengals    24

Browns    16

The Brown Log are 6-3 year to date in predicting the winner of Browns games. 

BL Predicts: Week 9 vs Ravens

Football is an emotional game, and division rivalries often come down less to talent and more to which team has an emotional edge.

Look for the Browns to drop another game this week.    The primary driver for a Browns loss really is that the Ravens are due for a big game, if they are to salvage playoff hopes this season. Baltimore are the reigning Super Bowl champs, and I see them being very motivated to drive home a win in Cleveland.  Meanwhile our Browns are due for a letdown. Hope is slipping away and we are already on our third QB of the season.  

If emotional analysis isn't enough for you, remember that the Browns have lost Travis Benjamin, who was one the the teams most important role players. Several key long gains and scores took place on special teams and on offense when Benjamin was on the field. The Brownies lost a major threat that opponents defenses had to account for. It's a seemingly small factor but football can be a game of inches.

BL Predicts

Ravens       23
Browns      13

The Brown Log are 6-2 year to date in predicting who will win Browns games.