Drinking the Kool Aid?

Either the Browns believe they can shape their future by the power of positive thinking or they are simply unwilling to face reality.   This week pushes all of the limits of their ability to spin.

SPIN FAILURES

1. You read it on the Brown BLog weeks ago that Deshaun Watson was heading towards a season ending shoulder injury.   Micro tears are STRUCTURAL damage because strong muscles support the shoulder structure and Watson's muscles were micro torn.  I felt you could see this season ended injury coming from miles away.  I guess Berea is simply too close to see it coming.  

2. The next big spin failure is one that we will have to confront this Sunday.   Our new spin is that DTR's performance against the Ravens was understandable because he did not have a full week to prepare as the starter.   DTR himself said that he did not even know some of the play calls coming in from Kevin Stefanski.

Are you drinking the Kool Aid??

I am not.   Why?

Well for starters

- Why is it that DTR after a full training camp, was not in command of his playbook?

- Why is it that DTR did not apparently take his role as backup QB seriously enough to prepare as if he might have to play?

If you drink the Browns Kool Aid and expect to see a new man at QB Sunday against the Steelers I suspect you're going to be seriously let down.

The Brown BLog Predicts: Quesions Answered - Week 9 vs Ravens

The Browns vs the Ravens will be the most important game the Browns have played in over two seasons because this game is going to answer a lot of questions.

Among the questions that we will have the answers to after Sunday's match:

- Are the Browns a Super Bowl contender?

- Is Kevin Stefanski capable of a flawless day of coaching, or will he continue to listen to Paul DePodesta's staff during the most critical moments of a game and make mind numbing decisions that mar games that are generally well planned on offense. 

Those are two pretty big questions.   A road game vs the very talented and well coached Ravens is a test.  Win it and pass.  Lose it and fail.

I see the Browns battling tomorrow but losing a relatively close battle.   But whether the Browns lose by 1 point or 30 a loss will be a failure that foreshadows yet another disappointing season for the Browns 

Brown BLog Predicts

Ravens    23

Browns   16

The Brown BLog are 4-4 this season predicting the outcome of Browns games.

CJ Stroud vs Deshaun Watson: What is the Difference?

After his remarkable performance last Sunday in an amazing come from behind victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaners, CJ Stroud was asked to explain his incredible success as a rookie QB in the NFL.

Stroud answered that he gave all the credit to his Lord and Savior Jesus Christ.

When fans seek to understand what is the difference between Deshaun Watson, a very good QB and CJ Stroud who is emerging as a world class QB the answer is in Stroud's own words.

Watson has even more ability than CJ Stroud, the only difference is that Stroud has surrendered his life to our Lord Jesus.

If fans want the Browns to win a Super Bowl, they should do everything in their power to shower Mr. Watson with the words and love of Christ the Savior.

Once Deshaun Watson is saved, and begins to live his life in the brilliant light of our Lord, he will be transformed off the field and then on it! 

The Brown BLog Predicts: Game 8 vs Cardinals

The Browns luck ran out against Seattle last Sunday.  

What?  Luck??

Luck does not exist, right?  It's all about the numbers.   Well, I don't know which set of analytics says that but I thought at a bare minimum it was a terrible idea to put the entire game on PJ Walkers shoulders after such a gutsy performance.   So instead of being a hero, Walker ends up the goat and the Browns yet again try to outsmart an opponent, who instead made their reads and won the play, then the game.

So will we need luck against the Cardinals today?  I was ready to predict Arizona if Kyler Murray were to start, but a rookie QB against the Browns amazing D?   

I see no way the Browns lose to a rookie QB, Clayton Tune will make a few errors and the Browns will get a win at home

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns            23

Cardinals         17

The Brown BLog are 3-4 this season  

The Brown BLog Predicts: Stay the Course

The Browns have won two games in a row without their franchise QB, whose rotator cuff hangs in the balance.   The Browns Defense and Special Teams deserve much of the credit for those two wins, not to mention some officiating calls that seem inspired by the legendary gambler Tim Donaghy.

However illogical it is that the Browns are 4-2 today, it remains hard for me to accept that this Browns team is destined to success.   PJ Walker undeniably is a cool customer under pressure and I like his leadership, but carry the Browns to the playoffs?  I don't think so.   He's putting more film out there every week, NFL teams are going to find even more cracks in his game.

So this week the Brown BLog stays the course and predicts yet again the Browns will lose this week vs. a very good Seahawks team.

Let's hope for a Washington Commanders loss this week because word is that if they win, Jacoby Brissett is not getting traded.   Without Brissett the Browns hopes for salvaging a playoff season are going to go down the toilet, because I don't care what anybody says, you can say what you like about Deshaun Watson off the field, but on the field he is a warrior.  If he's not playing something is seriously and structurally wrong with that rotator cuff.

Brown BLog Predicts

Seahawks        28

Browns            17

the Brown BLog are 2-4 season to date predicting Browns outcomes.

The Brown BLog Predicts: On the Road to Indy

Winning on the road is hard in the NFL, the home team wins 56% of the time in the NFL.  Fans and pundits are almost universally aligned in predicting a Browns win this week and that the Colts, because Gardner Minshew is at QB, are beatable.

Wrong.   While I like Anthony Richardson, think he will be a goo QB and am sorry to see him out for the season, I also think facing a rookie QB would have been a bounty for the Browns defense.  Minshew on the other hand, might be a journeyman, has been around the block enough to know when to take a risk and when to fold.   Furthermore the Colts have a good run game and plenty of young, fast and talented defenders.

This is a trap game and I think the Browns are the prey.  Deshaun Watson might well be back, but unless the Browns can run the ball and get a long overdue big game from their $15,000,000 Tight End, I see this game tilting to the Colts.   

Watson is likely to be rusty yet again and Njoku rarely produces a Travis Kelce like output, in spite of his similar salary.  I think Watson will be his old self at some point this season, but not after 3 weeks off and I think Njoku will eventually put up some numbers, maybe today but it won't be enough today.

The Brown BLog Predicts:

Colts        26

Browns    13

The BL are 2-3 this season prognosticating Browns games. 

The Brown BLog Predicts: Week 6 vs SF 49ers - - - EaSy!!!

 PJ Walker off the taxi squad to battle the 5-0 49ers?

Easiest Prediction of the Season:

The Brown BLog Predicts

49ers        31

Browns    10

The Brown BLog is 2-2 this season predicting Browns games. 

Paul DePodesta's Guardrail of the Week: No Uncoordinated Leaks!

 One of Paul DePodesta's Guardrails is "no uncoordinated leaks"

This week, we all learned for the first time from Josina Anderson, that Deshaun Watson will not play vs the 49ers.   

This is chaos, not coordination.

Paul DePodesta's GUARDRAIL OF THE WEEK- Don't Pay for Depth! - Cleveland Browns Analytics

 Absurd to think but the Cleveland Browns have been extremely secretive when it comes to detailing the strategies that result from their extraordinary investment in analytics.

Why is it absurd?   Because analytics have produced below average results.

How can we measure the results of analytics if the Browns hold their strategies so close to the vest?  Well let me take a stab at this.

- Paul DePodesta is in his 8th season as Chief Strategy Officer

- The Browns record in his first 7 seasons is 40-73-1.....

- The only documented record I can locate of Mr. DePodesta's strategy are his infamous Guardrails:

 

Every single guardrail published all those years ago can be questioned and the Brown Blog plan to look at every guardrail in the coming weeks, but today let's look at one guardrail that is "in the news" of late.

PAUL DePODESTA GUARDRAIL OF THE WEEK - DON'T PAY FOR DEPTH

In a season in which Jimmy Haslam is paying over $280,000,000 in player salaries, many of them free agent signees, which in itself is an abandonment of another guardrail strategy, but leave that for another week, the Browns simply could not resist the analytical goldmine of accumulating a 5th round pick and saving $2,000,000 in salary by trading Josh Dobbs.   Dobbs is playing well, he is playing in fact like a QB who has been in the NFL for 6 seasons and knows how to handle the QB role.

I too was swept away by DTR's pre season performance however I am not being paid a 7 figure salary to make roster decisions for the Cleveland Browns.   

The aligned team of Paul DePodesta, Andrew Berry and Kevin Stefanski are however paid millions to decide how to spend Jimmy Haslam's billions and in less than 2 months that trade has the stench of horrid decision making.

Given how and how often the Browns run Deshaun Watson, having depth at QB is critical in a season that Jim Haslam hoped to make a deep playoff run.   But Analytics says don't pay for depth and here we are.........

Go Browns!

The Brown Blog Predicts: The Roller Coaster Ride, Week 4 vs The Ravens

 Being a Browns fan is much like riding a roller coaster, especially game to game.   Browns fans aspirations this season have gone from "Super Bowl" after the Bengals game, to the world is ending after a tough loss to the Steelers and right back to "We are the Champions" after an impressive win against Tennessee.

Look for this weeks game against Baltimore to be like riding a roller coaster all game long.   

There is a lot to peel back when looking at this week:

- The Ravens have a ton of injured players

- Deshaun Watson has a sore right shoulder and at this point, it is starting to feel like he won't be anywhere near 100% for the Ravens.

- The Browns incredible defense now has three full games of film out there and John Harbaugh is a tactician who knows how to make a game plan and work the clock when his team is at a disadvantage. 

Here is how I see the game unfolding:

The Browns defense is amazing however so is Lamar Jackson.  Like every fan I have been utterly impressed by what Myles Garrett and his teammates are achieving under the vision of Jim Schwartz.  Playing the Devil's Advocate, it's hard to come up with scenario's of how to combat a defensive line that is playing so fast combined with defensive backs who are capable of strong man coverage.

The one tactic I can imagine working is a $50,000,000 QB who can run the football like a tailback.

I see Lamar Jackson gaining over 100 yards Sunday using clever run designs.  The Ravens are going to score more than 3 points.

On the other side, Deshaun Watson is sporting a clipped wing right now.   I can envision a scenario in which the Browns, knowing it's a long season with a bye week coming, pull Watson early if he is struggling.  Especially since the extremely physical Ravens D is going to look for every opportunity to pound the Browns star QB.

So.... I think the Browns will lose, right?   Not quite.

The Ravens are nursing injuries at every key position group while the Browns, other than Watson are in relatively sound shape.   I think Sunday is going to be a roller coaster where the lead changes hands numerous times, but the Browns defense is going to get burned for a few big plays by Lamar, will also  manage to force a few turnovers, maybe even score a few points.

If Dorian Thompson Robinson plays I believe he will play well, if Deshaun Watson guts out an entire game, I think he will play responsibly and avoid turnovers.

I see Baltimore scoring two TDs and kicking 3 field goals, but I think the Browns will get "one more point" and win a thriller

The Brown Blog Predicts

Browns        24

Ravens        23

The Brown BLOg is 2-1 Predicting the outcome of Browns games season to date.

The Brown BLog Predicts: Week 3 vs Titans

 While it would be great fun to watch the chaos that will unfold should the Browns lose on Sunday against Tennessee, a Browns loss would require an emotional collapse that is unprecedented even for the Browns. 

The loss of Nick Chubb is a massive blow to both the team and it's emotions, but signing Kareem Hunt was a very smart move that has already lifted spirits.  I see at least one touchdown by Kareem on Sunday. 

Tennessee is well coached but they really lack the depth of talent needed to compete on the road with a team that's as loaded as the Browns.  

I see a tough day in store for Tennessee as the Browns coast to an easy win on Sunday.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns        27

Titans            17

The Brown BLog is 1-1 predicting Browns games this season

Paul DePodesta's Guardrail of the week! Scheme Production = Plays not Players

 The Cleveland Browns believe that scheme production exists and after last Monday night I think they've convinced me!

One can imagine Kevin Stefanski and "AVP" deep in the bowels of their Berea lair, preparing their game plan by saying: 

"Mike Tomlin will NEVER imagine that we will throw to our third string tight end on the very first play of a huge game!!!"

Of course they were right however the fact that they surprised Mike Tomlin is small consolation to Browns fans because unlike Kevin Stefanski, Mr. Tomlin teaches his athletes to trust their reads and make plays.   

So unfortunately for the Browns, opening in 13 Empty did not confuse the Steelers. They adjusted Alex Highsmith into coverage against the legendary Harrison Bryant and the result of the play could most certainly be labelled "scheme production"

Unfortunately for the Browns it was scheme production on behalf of Alex Highsmith.

Touchdown Steelers

What is Deshaun Watson's problem?

 People are already debating what exactly is wrong with Deshaun Watson.   He once was one of the best QB's in the entire NFL and now he has slipped in every category.  

The Brown BLog has the answer!

At some point in the last 4 years, it sure does seem like Deshaun Watson lost his way and has slipped into Satan's traps:  Materialism and Idle Hands. These are the devil's tools and they might be wrecking havoc on this world class athlete.

The Browns organization is driven by facts and figures so I am sure they are studying the numbers and focused on things like Deshaun's reads, his footwork, and a variety of other quantifiable elements of Deshaun's play.   However they are on the wrong track, the only solution is for Deshaun Watson to change his life by accepting the truth of our savior Jesus Christ into his life.

Once Deshaun accepts Christ as his personal savior, all of his on field woes will melt away in the warm embrace of our Lord.   

Let's pray this happens sooner than later!