Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday Jan 3, 2021:  Browns vs Steelers

"One step at a time" 

I love Browns fans who have an irrational optimism in the face of any negative information.

This week our Browns have faced obstacle after obstacle due to injuries and the Covid crisis.  A list of 3 starters and 2 regulars will have to miss the Steelers game including Sendejo, Goodson, Ward, Bryant and Malcolm Smith.   In addition Takitaki has an ankle injury as does Wyatt Teller.   Both may play but will they be effective?

Meanwhile the Steelers have decided to rest 4 key starters including Big Ben and star players Maurkice Pouncy, TJ Watt and Cam Herward.

The conclusion of Browns fans?   Our lost players are easily replaceable, the Steelers lost players are irreplaceable.   Sunday is a sure win!   Great!

But wait a minute....  

I hope and pray I am wrong but I feel nowhere near as confident as the legions this Sunday.  

Here are my reasons why:

• Practice is important.   The Browns have missed one on field practice this week as Covid protocols drove delays and cancellations.   The Browns ability to drill their game plan has to be impacted.   A missed day of on field practice is not just made up by staying extra on Friday and Saturday.   The cycle of preparation has been changed, in a game of inches it could be a factor.
• The Steelers are deep.  There are many examples here but my favorite is Avery Williamson, a linebacker acquired together with a 7th round draft pick during this season from the Jets in exchange for a 5th round draft pick.   The Browns could have had Williamson too but analytics must have said "wait until next year to invest in linebackers".  Williamson is a good player and last week contributed a sack in the key Steelers victory.
• The loss of Goodson and Ward in particular transform the Browns defense into one that is vulnerable even to a QB like Mason Rudolph.
• While many are quick to dismiss Rudolph as worthless because he had a terrible game last season vs the Browns, he is fresh, healthy and has a 5-3 career record as a starter.  Rudolph may not be more than an average NFL QB but he certainly is capable to move the Steelers offense especially with a patient short passing game mixed with an occasional deep throw. 

My final point is that football is an emotional game and there are finally signs that the emotional high that carried the Browns in November and December is starting to fracture.  Baker Mayfield, our franchise QB, had another "Jesus Tony" moment this week, only this time with Mary Kay Cabot.  Baker's passion drives his success but his cocky answer to Mary Kay is all about barking to the press instead of focusing on biting the opponent.   I love Baker and fully believe in him but in the NFL he needs to focus his energy and prep 100% on the opponent.   Last year in the game after his "Jesus Tony" incident, the Browns lost to a very beatable Denver Broncos team who were using their 3rd QB.

I will be thrilled if I am wrong but I see a heartbreaker coming.

If we lose, hopefully we get some help and still get into the playoffs.

If not, transforming the Browns into a playoff team requires many steps and Sunday may just be another lesson learned along the way to the Browns becoming a playoff team.   

Brown BLog Predicts

Steelers   17

Browns    16

The Brown BLog are 8-6 year to date 

Browns vs Steelers:  A game filled with subplots!

 

The Browns Steelers match up this Sunday is filled with interesting subplots, both in the days running up to the game and on gameday itself:

Subplots before Gameday:

•  Will Mike Tomlin rest any starters? 

• Will Browns players who had to sit out Sunday because they were exposed to Goodson get Covid or will they not come down with Covid and be eligible to play.  This is huge for the Browns:  Landry, Higgins, Hodge, Peoples-Jones and Phillips.     

• Does Jedrick Wills have Covid or not?   Another huge unknown that we will know more about soon 

• Can Wyatt Teller get back on the field Sunday.  Against the Steelers there will be nowhere to hide a rookie Guard, the Jets exposed Harris's weaknesses, imagine what Pittsburgh might come up with.

Gameday subplots:

• Will the Browns win and make the playoffs for the first time in ice ages? 

• If Tomlin rests Big Ben, will Mason Rudolph and Myles Garrett clash? 

• If Tomlin does not rest his starters, is he doing so to keep his team sharp for the playoffs or is there an element of revenge not to mention an emotional edge in the future vs an emerging Browns team?   Denying the Browns a playoff spot would certainly feel sweet to Mike Tomlin who cannot possibly enjoy hearing all year long how great a coach Kevin Stefanski is while he has never been given any credit after 14 winning seasons and a Super Bowl. 

• Can Baker Mayfield get back into top form after a 3 fumble game vs the Jets?

Looking forward to a very dramatic Sunday in Cleveland.
Go Browns! 

Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday December 27:  Browns vs Jets

"Winning is simple in the NFL"

I am writing this prediction after the news of the Browns top 4 wide receivers being declared out by Covid protocols.  In addition, two starting linebackers AND starting LT Jedrick Wills are out.  Unlike the mass of Browns fans who believe winning in New York today will be simple, I respectfully disagree.   The loss of these players took place 18 hours before game time.  An entire week's preparation now must be reshuffled.  

The Jets are 1-13 but as Bill Belichick famously has repeated, there is no such thing as an easy game in the NFL.   What the Jets matchup will be is the ultimate test of how well prepared Kevin Stefanski and his staff are.   

Questions that we will get answers to today:

- Does Stefanski's gameplan get driven down to the level of players on the taxi squad

- Does each athlete prepare as if he is going to play, even in week 17 of a season in which he has not played a game?

Every clue we have this season is that Stefanski holds everyone accountable to a high standard, even those folks on the taxi squad.  

Today we will find out how the Browns preparation holds out under the worst imaginable circumstances.  

I see the Browns winning today and I do not think the final score will be close which in some ways is a shame because I dread reading the Twitter posts of those infamous Browns homers, who will claim winning in the NFL is simple and will all claim "I told you so".

Winning is not simple, the Browns will win today because they have a coach who understands accountability, knows how to craft a winning plan and how to install his game plan so that every player on the team is ready.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns    23

Jets          13

The Brown BLog are 8-5 this season predicting the outcome of Browns games.

 

Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday Night Football - December 20

Browns vs Giants

Once Upon a Time

 Once upon a time if the Cleveland Browns faced a team with a QB who was traded by the Browns and whose ex coach was calling plays it would be almost a sure thing we would lose.

This Browns team is different.   The key against the Giants today is avoid turnovers and play with the same consistency the Browns have displayed all season long.

Should be a win for the good guys today

BL Predicts

Browns 27

Giants   13

The Brown BLog are 7-5 Predicting Browns games this season

Brown BLog Predicts

Monday Night Football!

December 14, 2020:  Browns vs Ravens

Welcome to the Club

The Browns experienced a breakout win last week vs the Titans but there are still pundits who do not believe the Browns are for real.    What is important is that the Browns team clearly believes in themselves.  The Browns are peaking at the perfect time, beating the Ravens will signal to the entire NFL that the Browns are for real.

Today I think the rest of the NFL will have to say "Welcome to the Club" as recognition that this Browns team is dangerous.

The Ravens blew the Browns out in the season opener and make no mistake, Lamar Jackson is a great QB.  He will give the Browns all they can handle tonight.  Furthermore, the loss of TE Austin Hooper is a big blow but there is a good reason Stefanski kept 4 good Tight Ends.  Injuries are part of the game.  Harrison Bryant needs to show he has overcome his battle with fumbling,  David Njoku needs to hang onto passes and keep blocking well.   There is reason to believe they will, the Browns have overcome critical injuries all season as Stefanski masterfully orchestrates and adapts his scheme to the talents of those athletes available on a given week. 

In a cold weather battle, I see the Browns eeking out a thrilling win in The Land.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns 27

Ravens  24

The Brown BLog are 7-4 this season predicting Browns games 

 

Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday December 5, 2020:  Browns vs Titans

Emotions and Football 

More than any sport, football is an emotional sport.  The role emotion plays cannot be overstated in game where a fraction of an inch is often the difference between success and failure.  Add in that physical pain plays a huge role in every game.  The athlete who can focus his emotions is better able to overcome pain.

On paper, the Tennessee Titans should win Sunday vs the Browns.  They are at home and arguably they have better talent in many roster spots especially on defense.   But right now the Browns are peaking emotionally.   The Browns are united around good leadership, filled with motivated players like Nick Chubb, Myles Garrett, Baker Mayfield. Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, this list goes on.

This Browns team has a lot of fight in them and they are going to need that in Nashville on Sunday.  Call it gut feeling, call it what you will, but I believe the emotional edge will be what carries our Browns to a historical victory, a Turning point this Sunday

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns     31

Titans        20

The Brown BLOg are 6-4 this season

Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday November 29:  Browns vs Jaguars

Teamwork!

 The Browns find themselves in a real bind this week.  Takitaki, Garrett, Gustin, Joe Jackson and Janovich are all out this week with Covid.   In addition, Denzel Ward is out with a muscle pull.  

Stefanski and his staff have found ways to win all season.  Their no excuses game planning have helped the team overcome key injuries all season long.   Solid plans by the coaches combined with someone new stepping up every week have led to a winning season.

This week is Baker's turn.   After 3 weeks in miserable weather, Baker gets to pull the trigger in the summer like weather of Florida.   The last time Baker had half decent weather, he put together a game for the ages against the Bengals.

No game in the NFL is easy and something tells me the first half vs Jacksonville will be nerve wracking and challenging but I see the Browns pulling away in the second half and finding another way to win this week.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns    31

Jaguars    17

The Brown BLog are 5-4 this season predicting Browns games. 

Brown BLog Predicts

November 22, 2020:  Browns vs Eagles

Gut feelings

 

Even with Myles Garrett out this week with Covid, most experts are predicting the Browns handle the Eagles today.   My gut screamed at me to take a closer look.

A lot of Browns fans like to play the game of oversimplification.  The Eagles lost to the Giants last week and the Giants are 3-7 therefore the Browns will win on Sunday.  

Let's use that logic with the Browns:

- The Browns only have one win this season vs a quality team:  The win over the Colts

- Without Myles Garrett, even though we played terrible teams all season, it can reasonably be argued that the Browns would be 3-6

Guess what folks, a deeper look at the Eagles shows they are not good, but also not near as bad as the record shows.   They played the Ravens and Steelers tough and the Eagles have had every break go against them.    Furthermore the Eagles have an incredibly tough schedule ahead of them and even in a terrible division, this game vs the Browns truly is a must win if the Eagles plan to win their division.

We got a sneak preview of the Browns defense without Myles Garrett during most of the second half vs the Raiders.   Without Myles folks we are one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Sorry to say, but notwithstanding that everyone sees the Browns winning today, my gut says this one is going to be a wake up call.   And that wake up call is "pray that Myles Garrett recovers soon or this season is going down the toilet quick"

Brown BLog Predicts

EAGLES  24

BROWNS 20

The Brown BLog are 5-3 this season predicting Browns games.

Brown BLog Predicts

November 15 - Browns vs Texans

A classic coaches battle!

 All NFL teams are loaded with talent, that is why Bill Belichick frequently states that no NFL game is an easy win.   If you like College Football and realize how entertaining it is, think about the fact that less than 2% of college football players ever dress for a single game in the NFL regular season. 

That is why coaching is so important and the Browns finally appear to have found a good one, Kevin Stefanski.   Against the Texans he will be going up against an old friend, Romeo Crennel, who is currently not just an old friend, he is the oldest head coach in the NFL and I would add, he is an old fox.

Stefanski has touted the fact this week that his staff spent the bye week studying the first 8 games of the season and have made adaptations to tendency and scheme so to maximize the teams chances of success.   Stefanski does a good bit of adaptation week to week, it is one of his strong points and it makes a difference in the won loss colums.   It will be fun to see how the team play calls change.

I see this game as a battle of wits between a young upstart and a very skilled old coach.    Crennel is 2-2 since taking over as Head Coach.   At the beginning of the season I expected the Texans and their franchise QB Deshaun Watson to be one of the better teams.   Turns out Bill O'Brien could neither build the supporting cast nor lead the good ones.   Crennel is an excellent leader and tactician.   I expect a battle.

If this were a road game I would be picking Houston but considering it is at home and that the Browns are getting a lot of injured players back, I expect the Browns will get past Crennel and Watson today.

But it will NOT be easy......

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns 28

Texans  24

The Brown BLog are 4-3 this season predicting Browns games.

Brown BLog Predicts

Missing Odell

 November 1, 2020:  Browns vs Raiders

The Cleveland Browns are going to miss Odell Beckham Jr.

There is a significant group of fans and even some pundits who actually believe that the loss of Odell Beckham Jr will end up "helping" the Browns.   I have news for you folks, any player who forces opposing defenses to adapt their game planning is not going to be easily replaced.

Defenses consistently dedicate a safety to keeping an eye on Odell deep.   That transforms any given play from 11 defenders against 11 offensive players to 10 vs 9.  That is a big deal even if Odell does not make a play.

What does this mean?

- It will often be more difficult for the Browns to run the ball

- It will be easier for the Raiders to mask coverages and confuse Baker Mayfield 

There are a lot of subplots to this game:

- Two good coaches

- Jon Gruden scheming to try to contain Myles Garrett

- The similarities of the Browns & Raiders:  Strong offenses, weak defenses

The Raiders are a good team, let's not forget they are the only team to defeat Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs this season and they hung that loss on the Chiefs in Kansas City.

The Browns are a good team too but the story today will be the Browns needing time to adjust their approach in a post Odell world.   I think in a high scoring battle, that will be the difference. 

Brown BLog Predicts

Raiders    34

Browns    24

The Brown BLog have a record of 3-3 this season picking Browns games.

 

Brown BLog Predicts

A Must Win Game!

October 25, 2020:   Browns at Bengals    

 

Every game, every week in the NFL is a difficult game.   Some more difficult than others.

Last week's destruction by the Steelers should be taken in it's proper perspective.   A stable team, deep in talent, playing at home.   Woody Hayes used to say a good old fashioned ass kicking can be good for the soul.  It humbles us and reminds us that nothing comes easy.

This week however against Cincy is a must win game.  This is another bit of hyperbole that I normally reject however this week is truly an important game for the morale of a team that is emotionally on the brink of believing in themselves.

A win vs the Bengals builds confidence necessary to make a playoff drive.

A loss vs the Bengals translates to further pressure on Baker Mayfield and non stop speculation about his future.

No win in the NFL is easy, especially on the road, but I am counting on Kevin Stefanski to put together a game plan that pulls this one off.   Even with the injuries, the Browns are deeper and more talented than the Bengals and should be able to eek this out.

The Brown BLog Predicts

Browns     31

Bengals    30

The Brown BLog are 2-3 this season prognosticating Browns games

Brown BLog Predicts

Sunday October 18 - Browns Steelers

Ribfest 2020 - Baker's ribs might be the story to this rivalry game!

 

Baker Mayfield has unquestioned grit and toughness.  It has made him who he is.   

As fans we tend to assume that once a game begins, pain killers and adrenaline help a player perform at peak level, but even a minor rib cage injury can be tough to play with.   I worry Sunday that Baker is going to be severely limited, especially after taking a few hits.

, 

The bottom line this week is that even with Baker healthy, I am convinced that the Steelers win at home on Sunday.  They are just far deeper than our Browns.

The formula for the Browns to win Sunday is to win the turnover battle AND outscore Pittsburgh.  With Baker healthy, I could be convinced of a small chance of a Cleveland win but with Baker nursing what is clearly a tough injury, I feel certain the Steelers take this one Sunday.   

No doubt, Baker will start and play but would not be surprised at some point if Keenum has to come into the game.    Regardless of who is pulling the trigger at QB, the Browns will run a lot and go to their Tight Ends more than they have at any point this season.   With Baker limited, there will be times when the team cannot move the ball and that will be the difference.   Big Ben remains one of the best and he has tons of weapons to exploit a battered Browns defense.   

This game will look a lot more like week 1 vs Baltimore - not close..

Brown BLog Predicts

Steelers   35

Brown     17

The Brown BLog are 1-3 this year predicting Browns games. 

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns vs Colts Oct 11 

TRUST?!?

Die hard Browns fans need more than 3 wins in 4 games to truly believe this Browns team might be diffferent however we have enough wins this season to prove that Kevin Stefanski is an NFL quality Head Coach and this Browns offense is very talented.

The match up vs the Colts on Sunday should be a good one.  The Colts have a defense that is amongst the best in the NFL and should give the Browns vaunted offensive line the best challenge of the season thus far.  The loss of Nick Chubb should not be dismissed nearly as quickly as many Browns followers are doing.   Chubb breaks tackles and runs harder than any back in the NFL.   Hunt is a fantastic back too but now the burden is completely on his shoulders.   The Colts are not going to give up 300 yards to the Browns on the ground, nor 200.   Far more likely that the Browns have to fight for every yard.

Watching Colts game highlights from their previous 4 games, I was impressed too by their pass coverage.  They are fast and cover well.  It is going to be a battle, my first prediction is there is no way that our Browns reach 30 points this week.

The Colts on offense depend on Phillip Rivers, who when I watch film reminds me of Eddie Harris, the sore armed pitcher in Major League.   

Stats seem to back that up:

- Rivers gets rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less 61% of the time this season and his passer rating is 106 when he does vs 82 when he holds the ball longer.  Baker on the other hand likes to hold the ball and look downfield, passing within 2.5 seconds only 49% of the time.   

I see Rivers trying to chew clock with lots and lots of underneath passes but I am going to trust that Joe Woods is ready for that and that Baker avoids turning the ball over.

Brown BLog Predicts

Browns 24   Colts 16

The Brown BLog are 0-3 this season as we adapt to this new reality of a Browns team that actually wins games.