Brown BLog Predicts

Browns vs Cowboys Sunday October 4

Week 4:  A TURNING POINT? 

Prognosticating Browns games used to be so easy.

Predicting the Browns to lose nearly every week was a guarantee of a winning record.

This season has been different.  I am 0-2 this season (I missed game 1, I would have certainly nailed that one).

Kevin Stefanski is a new kind of Browns coach.  He is prepared, he adjusts the teams tendencies week by week, he calls a good offensive game and does not ask his players to do too much.  In other words, Kevin Stefanski is....  an NFL quality head coach.  Hard to believe we have one in Cleveland is it not?

The Cowboys match up is a tough call.   It will certainly mark a turning point in this season should the Browns defeat the mighty Cowboys and this Dallas team is ripe to be upset as they battle injuries and turmoil

Key factors

- The Cowboys offensive line is severely banged up

- The Cowboys defense has not played well

- Jerry Jones called out Dak on an interview earlier this week, racheting up pressure on his QB.

There are people like ole Jerry who might disagree but I count Dak Prescott as one of the best QBs in the NFL.   Watch him, he consistently stays calm in the pocket, makes his reads and delivers accurate balls all over the field of play.   

Bottom line here is I can see this game going either way but I am going to stick with habit here and predict that Dak will be the difference

BL Predicts
Cowboys 27
Browns 24

 Brown BLog Predicts

  Week 3: Browns vs Redskins

  

While studying the Washington Football Teams roster this morning, it is difficult not to be impressed by the depth of experience they have on defense.   The defensive backfield in particular surprised me.  Fast and experienced players like 26 year old Strong Safety Landon Collins and 26 year old speedster Fabian Moreau at the Corner.  The Skins layer in a rookie stud like Chase Young and lots more experience on D.

The team is also coached by an experienced hand, Head Coach Ron Rivera, who knows how to build a game plan.  His strategy this season with this team is obvious:  No turnovers and let his defense dictate the game.  The Skins have recovered 3 fumbles, intercepted 3 passes and are plus 2 on turnover differential.   They lost to Arizona because they could not stop Kyler Murray.

I have news for you fellow Browns fans, Baker cannot run the ball like Kyler

The home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL so Cleveland has an advantage here but would it not just be so Cleveland Browns to lose this game.

It is going to be close, I believe the Browns will lose the battle of turnovers and lose the game.  

Why?

Because .... we are the Browns

BL Predicts

WASHINGTON   17

Browns                 16 

The BBlog are 0-1 this season on predictions

The Brown BLog Predicts:   

Browns vs Bengals Thursday Night Football

      Disaster or Alignment?

A lesson learned over the years of worshipping our Browns is not to ignore the obvious.

Earlier in the week, the Browns blundered by cutting Austin Seibert on the Monday before a big division rivalry game.   Tony Grossi was the first to point out that the timing of the cut might be ill advised and Mike Brown added credibility to Grossi's observation by immediately picking up Seibert.

Many worried about the embarrassment that might take place should Seibert play on Thursday evening.  What fans should truly be worried about is that on Tuesday and Wednesday the Bengals coaching staff was downloading nuggets of insights from Seibert relative to Browns special teams tactics.   The Bengals have for example one of the games better kick returners, Brandon Wilson, who already has a 44 yard return to his credit last Sunday.  Might an insight or two from Seibert help the Bengals set up an effective kick return Thursday evening?  

In a game of inches it is a troubling point.  All the Browns had to do was wait a few days to make the move, but my guess is cutting Seibert Monday saved a few dollars and our frugal owner certainly must have loved that.

Much ado about nothing say you?  Maybe but I guarantee Bill Belichick would never risk handing over this kind of intel to a key opponent days before a big game.  When asked about this Coach Stefanski said that Seibert being a Bengal was not "worrisome" so at least we do know that the Browns leadership is aligned.   Who knows, maybe the Browns will whip on Cincinnati and Baker Mayfield can hand the game ball to Seibert after one of his touchdown passes.

Will it have an impact, who knows but I do believe this will be a close game and I do believe the Bengals will win

Brown BLog Predicts

Bengals   24

Browns   17

2020 Pandemic vs Polemic

Browns center JC Tretter was elected President of the NFLPA this year and he recently commented that there is a "long list of hurdles" before players are going to be ready to bless getting on the field in 2020 given the current state of the pandemic.

The reaction of Twitter verse included the usual volume of thoughtless polemic about how much money football players make.  The polemic is a virtual reminder of the lack of education and intellectual laziness of too many citizens today.

Should athletes subject themselves to a higher than normal level of risk of being infected by a potentially fatal or life changing virus because they are well paid?   The key to understanding the issue is to turn down the ignorance volume and understand Covid-19.

I am in favor of steps to get our economy opened back up because we now understand that social distancing and masking up move risk levels down significantly.  Tretter reminds us of a pretty obvious point though.  Uh... football is a contact sport.

Except for defensive backs, for whom the NFL long ago mandated social distancing rules that prevent defenders getting anywhere near a receiver, most NFL players are obligated to come into physical contact with their foes.

Given the above it is difficult to imagine football being played in 2020.  However there is time left before the season and maybe one solution:  TESTING

If the NFL can test every player, frequently with a 100% reliable result that is immediate, I could imagine a scenario where practices and games can take place.   But right now, that capacity does not exist.   Test samples need to be sent by Fedex to a test center and reliable results require at least 24 hours.   Home based tests to my knowledge are neither 100% reliable nor available.

it should be very fascinating to watch this play out over the summer.

NFL owners and their commissioner are doing everything they can to make it feel like the 2020 NFL season is coming no matter what, maybe they feel like they can bully players into accepting a higher risk.  But JC Tretter is not drinking the owners Kool Aid and I for one say, "good for JC Tretter"!

We are baaaaackkk!

After a hiatus that lasted 5 years, we at The Brown bLog are back.
Suffice it to say that at the start of 2015 there were not any sources of optimism for a blog that is managed by passionate fans.

I could handle even 4 or 5 win seasons but the 4-44 streak over 3 seasons was more than I could digest & anybody could see that putting a lawyer in charge of personnel was going to lead to losses, lots and lots of losses.   And it did.

with COVID 19 changing our world, there is an odd rekindling of our passion for the Browns and even a sense of hope that the Browns might finally be moving towards a few years of stability.

Can Jimmy Haslam stick with one executive leadership team and coach for more than 2 seasons?

Does Andrew Berry have the right stuff?

I am optimistic enough about Berry & Stefanski to actually pick the blog up and starting writing again.

Only time will tell if this is the beginning of the end of the humiliation Browns fans have endured these last few years.

BL Predicts: Super Bowl XLIX Boycott

Who gives a shit who wins Super Bowl XLIX?

A bunch of cheating scum led by Bill Belichick are being rewarded yet again for their behavior.

I refuse to be a part of it.

Super Bowl XLIX is being boycotted by the Brown Log.  I won't watch one millisecond of a game that involves people whose behaviors don't match my own values.   Super Bowl XLIX is a farce.

The BL Finish the NFL season with a 10-6 regular season record & in the playoffs our prediction record was 6-4.

BL Predicts: NFL Conference Finals

The BL take a 5-3 playoff prediction record in this season's playoffs into the conference finals.
Here we go:

New England vs Indianapolis:

I continue to shake my head at the success of Bill Belichick because I remain convinced that he brazenly continues to use any advantage he can find to win, including cheating.  Occasionally during the season, an opponent will make the Pats look like easy game.   For example, early in the season Kansas City made New England look foolish beating them 41-14.   A few years ago, Rod Chudzinski took his Cleveland Browns into New England and dominated the Pats for 3 1/2 quarters.   Had it not been for a few bad ref calls the Browns would have won.

My contention is that some teams, with a bit of knowledge of how Belichick truly operates, change their play calling schemes when they match up against the Pats.   A run call is recoded to long pass and becomes an easy touchdown.   Suddenly the Pats, with knowledge that their opponent is "on to them" find themselves on equal footing and struggle all game long.

Lo and behold, Rod Chudzinski now works for the Colts.  Look for the Colts to break a few big plays today and defeat evil.

BL Predicts:

Colts       24
Pats         21


Green Bay vs Seattle:

If Aaron Rodgers, who is the best QB in the NFL, were not nursing a serious calf injury I would be more conflicted about this choice.  However Rodgers is seriously hurt and the Seahawks are at home with a healthy Super Bowl caliber QB in Russell Wilson.  Seattle also has the nastiest defense in the NFL and as we all know, defense wins championships even in the pass happy NFL.

It should not even be close today:

BL Predicts:

Seattle          27
Green Bay   17

BL Predicts: NFL Playoffs - Round 2

In week 1 thanks to the referees in Dallas the BL went 2-2, missing as we do every year on the Bengals

Week 2 of the NFL playoffs is all about the home field advantage.   The Brown Log will courageously predict that the home team will sweep the playoffs in Round 2.

BL Predicts:

Baltimore loses to New England by 14
Carolina loses to Seattle by 17
Dallas loses to Green Bay by 10
Indianapolis loses to Denver by 3

BL Predicts: Round 1 NFL Playoffs

After closing the year out 10-6 predicting Browns games, the Brown Log continue their yearly tradition of post season predictions.

This season's round 1 presents the most difficult set of games to predict that I can ever recall, so here goes:

Arizona vs Carolina:
Even though the Panthers finished 7-8 & 1, it must be noted that Arizona is down to their 3rd string QB, Ryan Lindley, whose play thus far would indicate that he's the kind of QB the Cleveland Browns would likely employ.  In other words, he's just awful.   I always give heavy consideration to the fact that the home field advantage is huge in the NFL.  The home team wins 58% of the time in the National Football League.

Finally, Cam Newton has endured a season of injuries that he has courageously played through and he is emerging both physically but more important, as a leader.   Look for a close game but I think Cam can make a few big plays against the incredible Arizona D and help his team advance

BL Predicts:  Carolina ends Arizona's wonderful season
Carolina    17
Arizona     12

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh
The loss of Le'veon Bell is big for the Steelers but I think they have more than enough guns remaining to handle the slumping Ravens at home.

BL Predicts:   Steelers handle Ravens
Pittsburgh   26
Baltimore    17

Cincinnati vs Indianapolis
I really like this Bengals team and every year in round 1, some home team is astounded by a visitor.  The Bengals D is loaded with speed and big play talent.   Jeremy Hill is a force at running back, capable of dominating and changing a game.  

What makes Bengal's fans nervous is that Andy Dalton has never played well in big games but here's an insight that most pundits haven't connected the dots on.  In the view of the Brown Log, it's not that Dalton can't play well in big games, his problem is that he's not a good QB in bad weather.  Paradoxically, the home field is a disadvantage for Dalton in the Bengals open air field, so it's a blessing in disguise to play in the Colts dome stadium.

Look for Hill to run for over 100 yards, Dalton to avoid big mistakes and Luck to make a few critical mistakes.

BL Predicts:  Bengals in an upset
Cincinnati     30
Colts             24


Detroit vs Dallas
Finally the game I've agonized most over.   I really want to pick Detroit here because I love the big play talent of Calvin Johnson but in the end, this seems to be a year of destiny for Tony Romo.   Look for the Dallas Cowboys dominant offensive line to continue to make big holes for DeMarcus Murray and Tony Romo to spring the occasional big play.

BL Predicts:  Cowboys steamroll the Lions
Dallas            35
Detroit           24

BL Predicts: Week 16 - Season finale vs Ravens

Normally, we predict the Browns game the day before to have as much information as possible but this week the outcome is already clear days before game time.

Brian Hoyer's shoulder is hurt, Connor Shaw may start so QB is bound to be an issue.   The Ravens are fighting for their playoff life and the game is in Baltimore.

BL Predicts:

Ravens      27
Browns     13

The BL are 9-6 year to date predicting the outcome of Browns games.

BL Predicts: Week 15 - Browns vs. Panthers

While the BL correctly foresaw that Johnny Football would have a rough debut I have to confess I had no idea that Johnny Manziel would show himself to be so flawed.  In a debut that was utterly terrible, Manziel's single game performance was so bad that it raises doubts about his potential as an NFL quarterback.  Normally you give a player a season to evaluate him but in Manziel's case he simply looked like he doesn't belong in the NFL.  His historically embarrassing debut is something that could only happen in Cleveland.

After the game Browns legend Bernie Kosar dumped on the front office and a culture of losing.  Bernie talks to people so his viewpoint has foundation in fact.   My guess here is that Bernie went off because he knows that Mike Pettine did not want to start Manziel vs the Bengals.  If Jimmy Haslam is interfering in the football operation of the Browns, it's a really really bad sign.

Onto Carolina.  Can the Browns game plan a better scheme for Manziel?   The answer is yes, anything would be better than the egg they laid against the Bengals.    Expect Cleveland to move Manziel around a bit and look for Johnny to make better reads but don't expect the Browns to win.   Turnovers and stalled drives will still likely be the order of the day vs the Panthers, but I would expect Johnny Football to move the team at least a few times on Sunday

BL Predicts:

Carolina      30
Browns       13


The BL are 8-6 year to date predicting Browns games.

Farewell Mike Pettine ??

Jimmy Haslam fired Chud because he did not like how Chud refused to cut players who didn't measure up.  Mike Pettine has learned that lesson well, making brutal examples this year of Ben Tate, Billy Cundiff, Kiero Small and others when they failed to do as the team pleased.

After yesterday's debacle vs Cincinnati, in which heaven forbid, Marvin Lewis out coached Mike Pettine, will Pettine's head be on the block?   Haslam has fired his head coach for 2 years running and let's not forget, Pettine was Joe Banner's man.

BL Predicts: Week 14 Browns vs Bengals - The debut of Johnny Football

When predicting, the Brown Log like to stick to the facts and here are the facts this week vs the Bengals:

- The home team wins 58% of the time in the NFL, just about the only factor in the Browns favor this week.

- The Browns have been torn apart by injury, though at linebacker and free safety players have stepped up and done an admirable job.  However at center and defensive line, the Browns have been severely weakened.

- A rookie QB is starting for the Browns this week.  Even if that rookie QB is the most famous rookie QB in NFL history, he's still a rookie QB.  Rookies make rookie mistakes, even the ones who end up being great.  Odds are strong that Johnny Manziel will make a critical mistake or two on Sunday.  Manziel likely will also surprise the Bengals with a few big plays both in the air and on the ground but this is not college where a mistake or two can be overcome by a few big plays, it's mistakes that decide games in the NFL.

- Football is an emotional game and the Bengals have an emotional edge on multiple fronts.

• Earlier this year the Bengals were soundly defeated by the Browns.
• The Bengals have more at stake as they hold the division lead
• The Browns have key players like Joe Thomas who favor the veteran QB Hoyer
• Marvin Lewis may be into Manziel's head with the midget comment

- Finally, another factor in any outdoor game, especially in Ohio is the weather.  On the Thursday evening in Cincinnati that the Bungles lost to the Browns there was a 50 mile per hour wind blowing and the Bengals stupidly stuck to their game plan, throwing passes all over the field that were visibly affected by the wind while the Browns clearly adapted to the elements and were able to move the ball.   Ironically the weather in Cleveland is supposed to be decent and the Bengals are out for revenge, I think they'll have the edge Sunday vs the Browns.


BL Predicts:

Bengals      24
Browns      20

The BL are 7-6 season to date predicting Browns games.